A lot of the blogs focus on what is going to happen in the 2008 election and talk about who is running this election which makes some sense. I think it might make some sense to ask who ran in 2006 to see where the upsets might take place in 2008 and to look at who is running in 2008 to see where the upsets might be in 2010. A review of the past several election cycles shows it is not likely for a challenger to upset an incumbent. A fair percentage of those who pull off upsets do it on the second time around.
John Kowalko , Democrat –25th Rep District, pulled off the only upset in the Delaware House of Representatives in 2006, beating Republican incumbent Stephanie Ulbrich by 200 votes. She had beat him by about 1100 in 2004.
The only upset in 2004 was Democrat Valerie Longhurst, who beat Republican Bruce Reynolds on her second try, after losing to him in 2002.
In 1996 Helen Keeley upset long-time State Representative Casimir Jonkiert by winning the Democratic primary before winning the general election in a heavily Democratic district in the City of Wilmington. This was Keeley’s 3rd run against Jonkiert.
In 1990 Republican Vince Lofink upset incumbent Democrat, Katherine Jester by 22 votes. In 1988 he had lost to Jester by 222.
In 1980 Democratic challenger, Vince Meconi, came within 186 votes of Republican incumbent, Robert Powell in what was then the 23rd District , the area along Kirkwoof Highway that includes Meadowood and Heritage Park. Meconi ran again in 1982 in what had become the reconfigured 21st District and won by 364 votes. Since the district lines had changed, Meconi may have benefited from both persistence and a friendlier map.
In reviewing election results since 1980 for the Delaware House of Representatives , Democrat John Viola’s upset of Rich Davis in 1998 and Republican Steve Amick’s upset of Marion Anderson in 1986 are the only two upsets I have been able to find that did not involve (1)a reapportionment year election,(2)a first-term legislator being upset or (3)a challenger who was making a second attempt to unseat the incumbent .The period 1980 through 2006 is 14 election cycles and there are 41 house seats up each election cycle. That means over this time period there were 574 possible occasions to unseat an incumbent and only twice was that accomplished when not one of those three factors existed. That is a less than 3/10ths of 1%. Not impossible,but pretty long odds.
There are however, numerous examples of candidates winning an initial term, only to lose the seat at the next election.
Vince Meconi won in 1980 and lost in 1982 after one term.
Roark Moore, who unseated several term legislator Al Plant in 1990, was then defeated by Plant after only one term in 1992. Both of these competitions took place in the Democratic Primary.The general election was all but guaranteed for the primary winner due to lopsided Democratic registration edge in what was then the 2nd Representative District.
Two Democrats , who won their only term in 1992, were then upset in 1994.
Democrat Peggy Bradley upset Marybeth Boykin in Brandywine Hundred in 1992 on her first attempt (in the election following the 1992 reapportionment) only to be upset in 1994 by Phil Cloutier. In 1992 Cathy Wojewodzki won the seat in Newark vacated by the retirement of Ada Leigh Soles,but was upset in 1994 by Republican Tim Boulden by 61 votes.
In Sussex County in 1982 (in the election after reapportionment) Howard Clendaniel, Democrat, won in the newly reconfigured 36th district after losing in 1980 in what had been the 35th district. Two years later, after only one term representing the 36th District, Clendaniel lost to George Carey, who is still the Representative for the 36th District.
Two colleagues that had upset victories as challengers in the 1982 election following reapportionment were able to keep their seats longer and did not leave at the hands of the voters. Republican Bobby Quillen upset incumbent Democrat Ron Darling in 1982 and stayed in office until 2004 when he declined to seek re-election due to illness and passed away in Sept 2004. Bruce Ennis, Democrat, upset Republican Robert Riddagh in 1982 in the area around the New Castle County/Kent County border and held that seat until he resigned it and won the Senate Seat of State Senator Jim Vaughn , who died in 2007.
In 1980 Rod Dixon won the 17th Representative District which at the time was centered along Route 13 near New Castle. He won again in 1982 in the reconfigured 15th,but was upset in 1984 by Republican Bruce Reynolds by 50 votes. Dixon won the rematch in 1986 by 43 votes. Reynolds beat Dixon by 296 votes in 1988 and 650 votes in 1990. Reynolds held the seat until 2004 when he was upset by Valerie Longhurst in the current 15th which encompasses much more of Bear and much less turf near New Castle. I guess the 1982 upset does not have any of the factors I mentioned, but after that Dixon and Reynolds spent the next two elections upsetting each other, so the factor of having run the prior election is involved and makes this a less clear example than the Amick or Viola upset.
Even if you include the 1982 upset of Dixon by Reynolds, it only brings the total to 3 of the number of upsets over the period 1980 to 2006 that did not involve reapportionment, a first term incumbent being beaten or a challenger that was not running at least the second time. Whether it is 2 out of 574 or 3 out of 574, it did not happen often.
The numbers seem to indicate that if you want to score an upset your best 3 options are to pick off a first term legislator before they get too established, run repeatedly against an incumbent or be on the right side of the way the map is redrawn at reapportionment .
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Election results are from the Delaware Election Commissioners website which can be accessed through:
http://www.de.gov
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Web Sources used for the last 2 Posts
Oakley Banning death caused 9-1998 special election. Cathart won and re-elected in Nov 1998. Verified by the source below because the News-Journal online obituary archive did not go back far enough to verify.
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-387328_ITM
accessmylibrary
_____________________________________________________________________
For a good description of the 2006 legislative retirements and some other information in prior archive posts, I used the Delaware Grapevine Archives
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/archives.asp
delawaregrapevine
____________________________________________________________________________
For election results and voter registration numbers I used the
State Election Commissioner's election archive
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
electionsresults
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-387328_ITM
accessmylibrary
_____________________________________________________________________
For a good description of the 2006 legislative retirements and some other information in prior archive posts, I used the Delaware Grapevine Archives
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/archives.asp
delawaregrapevine
____________________________________________________________________________
For election results and voter registration numbers I used the
State Election Commissioner's election archive
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
electionsresults
The 2002 Reapportionment Change of seats put into perspective
What is notable in the 2002 election that verifies reapportionment is an impact is not the number of seats vacated,but that 6 of 7 seats vacated in the Delaware House of Representatives were not abandoned voluntarily. All of the representatives who left office, except Charles West who retired, lost either in the primary or general election. Seven election cycles have been reviewed from 1994 to 2006 and only 12 seats were vacated by an incumbent losing a primary or a general election. 6 of these 12 seats involuntarily vacated at the hands of the voters took place in 2002. 50% of those who involuntarily gave up their seats at the ballot box over the course of 7 election cycles did so in one cycle-2002.
The bulk of changes of hands in the seats of Delaware House of Representatives during the period 1994-2006 took place due to death of an incumbent, retirement of the incumbent or the incumbent running for higher office. There were 34 changes of hands of individual seats in the House over this period . 15 were due to retirement , 3 were due to deaths and 4 incumbents ran for higher office.
In 2006 7 seats changed hands and 6 representatives retired. The only seat vacated due to a challenger beating an incumbent was in the 25th Representative District where John Kowalko upset 5 term incumbent, Stephanie Ulbrich.
In 2004 5 seats change hands due to 3 retirements ,Rep Dave Ennis running for Insurance Commissioner and one upset in which challenger , Democrat Valerie Longhurst, beat Republican incumbent Bruce Reynolds.
In 2000 the only seat that changed hands during the regular election cycle was the 29th due to Charles Welch retiring from the House to accept an appointment to being a judge. Rep Al Plant died in Dec 2000 which created the need for a special election which was won by his widow, Hazel Plant, in Jan 2001.
In 1998 four seats changed hands. Rep Oakley Banning died during his term which set up a special election in September 1998 won by Richard Cathcart, who then ran unopposed in Nov 1998. There were also two retirements. The lone unseated incumbent was Republican, Rich Davis, who lost to Democrat John Viola.
In 1996 two seats changed hands. Democrat Shirley Price won in the 38th District following the seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Rep George Bunting, who ran for the State Senate vacated by the retirement of Sen Richard Cordrey. In what was then the Fifth Representative District in Southwest Wilmington Helene Keeley, the Democratic challenger, beat long time incumbent Casimir Jonkiert in the Democratic primary and Republican Mike Brown in the general election.
In 1994 two seats , the 3rd Representative District in Wilmington and the 12th Representative District in Suburban New Castle County, were vacated by Democrat Herman M Holloway, Jr and Republican Liane Sorenson, who each ran for a seat in the State Senate. 3 seats were vacated due to retirement and 2 Democratic incumbents lost in the 11th in Brandywine Hundred and the 23rd in Newark.
A case can be made that reapportionment as it is currently conducted is geographically selective term limiting. Being given a friendly enough map can almost guarantee an incumbent no strong opposition over time. Being given an unfriendly map may make it almost impossible for even an effective incumbent to hold a seat. Dave Brady was strong enough in the old 8th District to run unopposed in 1998 and have only 3rd Party opposition in 1994 and 1996, but was out of office by the end of 2002 due to redistricting. Rick DiLiberto was unopposed in 1996 and 2000 due to his strength as a vote getter ,but was out of office by the end of 2002 due to redistricting.
During the other 6 election cycles between 1994 and 2002 a legislative seat was more likely to open up due to the incumbent choosing to leave or dying than by an upset by 21seats to 6 seats. In 2002 it was 6 unseated incumbents ( I am treating DiLiberto’s run for Senate as being unseated in his House seat since it is likely he might not have taken the long shot against Sorenson, if he was not given such long odds in Republican Joseph Miro’s district) to one retirement. If these number are indicative of the future in any way, it means a lot is at stake in 2012.
The bulk of changes of hands in the seats of Delaware House of Representatives during the period 1994-2006 took place due to death of an incumbent, retirement of the incumbent or the incumbent running for higher office. There were 34 changes of hands of individual seats in the House over this period . 15 were due to retirement , 3 were due to deaths and 4 incumbents ran for higher office.
In 2006 7 seats changed hands and 6 representatives retired. The only seat vacated due to a challenger beating an incumbent was in the 25th Representative District where John Kowalko upset 5 term incumbent, Stephanie Ulbrich.
In 2004 5 seats change hands due to 3 retirements ,Rep Dave Ennis running for Insurance Commissioner and one upset in which challenger , Democrat Valerie Longhurst, beat Republican incumbent Bruce Reynolds.
In 2000 the only seat that changed hands during the regular election cycle was the 29th due to Charles Welch retiring from the House to accept an appointment to being a judge. Rep Al Plant died in Dec 2000 which created the need for a special election which was won by his widow, Hazel Plant, in Jan 2001.
In 1998 four seats changed hands. Rep Oakley Banning died during his term which set up a special election in September 1998 won by Richard Cathcart, who then ran unopposed in Nov 1998. There were also two retirements. The lone unseated incumbent was Republican, Rich Davis, who lost to Democrat John Viola.
In 1996 two seats changed hands. Democrat Shirley Price won in the 38th District following the seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Rep George Bunting, who ran for the State Senate vacated by the retirement of Sen Richard Cordrey. In what was then the Fifth Representative District in Southwest Wilmington Helene Keeley, the Democratic challenger, beat long time incumbent Casimir Jonkiert in the Democratic primary and Republican Mike Brown in the general election.
In 1994 two seats , the 3rd Representative District in Wilmington and the 12th Representative District in Suburban New Castle County, were vacated by Democrat Herman M Holloway, Jr and Republican Liane Sorenson, who each ran for a seat in the State Senate. 3 seats were vacated due to retirement and 2 Democratic incumbents lost in the 11th in Brandywine Hundred and the 23rd in Newark.
A case can be made that reapportionment as it is currently conducted is geographically selective term limiting. Being given a friendly enough map can almost guarantee an incumbent no strong opposition over time. Being given an unfriendly map may make it almost impossible for even an effective incumbent to hold a seat. Dave Brady was strong enough in the old 8th District to run unopposed in 1998 and have only 3rd Party opposition in 1994 and 1996, but was out of office by the end of 2002 due to redistricting. Rick DiLiberto was unopposed in 1996 and 2000 due to his strength as a vote getter ,but was out of office by the end of 2002 due to redistricting.
During the other 6 election cycles between 1994 and 2002 a legislative seat was more likely to open up due to the incumbent choosing to leave or dying than by an upset by 21seats to 6 seats. In 2002 it was 6 unseated incumbents ( I am treating DiLiberto’s run for Senate as being unseated in his House seat since it is likely he might not have taken the long shot against Sorenson, if he was not given such long odds in Republican Joseph Miro’s district) to one retirement. If these number are indicative of the future in any way, it means a lot is at stake in 2012.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
A Tale of Seven Districts-The best of apportionment, the worst of apportionment-2002
All the candidates and elected officials mentioned are Republicans and Democrats, but this story is as much about incumbency and map making as party affiliation. Reapportionment redraws district maps for the Delaware General Assembly every ten years. This takes place two years after the US census reports changes in population.
While districts are then realigned to take into account shifts in population (for example, large numbers of people moving into areas like the Middletown –Odessa-Townsend [MOT] area in New Castle County or the shore area in Sussex AND populations decreasing or remaining the same in the city of Wilmington or some areas of suburban New Castle County that have run out of areas to develop) based on census data, the actual lines often affect a handful of individuals at least as much as the population at large.
When the 2000 census indicated the MOT area was due a new district, it got district number 8. The old 8th Representative District, centered in Claymont and represented by a Democrat, was cut into multiple pieces shared by adjacent districts , each of which was represented by a Republican.
Similarly , the 2000 census indicated the beach area in Sussex County was entitled to an additional representative and district 14 went downstate. The 14th representative district, an area along Kirkwood Highway between Newark and Limestone Road which had been represented by a Democrat prior to 2002, was severed into multiple pieces shared by adjoining districts in which each was represented by a Republican .
The 37th District stayed in Sussex County, but moved it’s center of political gravity several miles west of Democratic Representative John Schroeder’s power base near the Lewes-Rehoboth beaches to take in the power base of former Georgetown Mayor Joseph Booth, a Republican who went on to beat Schroeder in Nov 2002.
The 38th District in Sussex County, represented by Democrat Shirley Price prior to 2002, had 6,799 Republicans after redistricting and 6,204 Democrats after the 2002 reapportionment. Price lost in 2002 to Republican Gerald Hocker by 4436 to 4379. In 2000 Shirley Price had won 8811-4979 against Republican opposition in a district with a friendlier map with 8,390 Democrats to 8,364 Republicans.
In Southern Sussex County the 41st District held 5,551 Democrats to 4,825 prior to an election to fill the seat vacated due to Democrat Charles West’s retirement. Despite having a registration disadvantage of over 600 voters, Republican John Atkins defeated Donald Ward 3897 to 2568. West had won by 1600 votes in 2000 in a 41st District that also had a 500 voter Democratic registration edge.
In Delaware the reapportionment is done by the legislature rather than by a commission, like some other states. For practical purposes, each House is reapportioned by the majority party in that House. In 2002 the Republicans had a majority in the House of Representatives and the Democrats had a majority in the Senate.
The House Republicans would have the incentive of majority caucus expansion (or incumbent retention, at a minimum) for dividing swing districts like the previous 8th and 14th into parts and placing those parts in districts more amenable to electing Republicans. Dave Brady, the Democrat who had represented the old 8th District, was placed in the newly configured 7th Rep Dist held by Majority Leader Wayne Smith. The 7th district in 2002 had 6,384 Republicans and 5089 Democrats. Prior to redistricting, Brady had represented an 8th District that had 4,646 Democrats to 4,000Republicans. After redistricting Rick DiLiberto, the Democrat in the old 14th, was placed in the 22nd District held by Joseph Miro and declined to run for the State House again. He faced a Republican registration edge of 6,581 to 4,434. The 14th DiLiberto had been re-elected with no opposition to represent in 2000 consisted of 4,286 Democrats to 3,458 Republicans.
Democrats Dave Brady and Rick DiLiberto each went from having a Democrat-Republican positive registration edge of at least 600 voters to each having a negative registration edge of at least 1300. Brady ran against Smith and lost by 414 votes. DiLiberto decided his better prospect in 2002 was to run against State Senator Liane Sorenson, whose Senate District overlapped the 22nd Rep district. DiLiberto lost that race by 1011 votes.
The new 14th seems to have been created to assure a Republican winning the new seat with 6,430 Republicans to 6,061 Democrats. Many were likely surprised when Democrat Pete Schwartzkopf won in the district which Republicans may not have expected.
In the Cape Gazette (1-20-2006) Bridin Reynolds reported:
“ You would be hard pressed to find anyone who agrees with how the last redistricting lines were created,” said Rep. Pete Schwartzkopf, D-Rehoboth Beach.
Ironically, Schwartzkopf won a reapportioned new district many consider gerrymandered to further the Republican hold on the state House. “I beat the odds and even my amiable and worthy opponent, Mike Meoli, acknowledges that the lines were calculated to favor a Republican,” said Schwartzkopf.
In negotiations to draw election-district maps, the district Schwartzkopf represents was created based on 38 percent growth reported for coastal Delaware in the 2000 federal Census, giving Sussex County additional representation.
With a strong hold on the House, Republican leaders sized up the surrounding area and dramatically changed existing boundaries. “These lines were then drawn to manipulate competition,” said Schwartzkopf.
At the time, sitting legislators compromised by drawing a potential Lewes Republican candidate, Jud Bennett, out of the proposed new district, and certain Democratic Dewey Beach candidate, former Mayor Bob Frederick, out of the new district.
http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/0106/redistricting012006.html
capegazette
Reapportionment’s potential incumbent retention appears to have been at play in the MOT area, where in 2000 Democrat Bethany Hall-Long lost to incumbent Republican Richard Cathcart by 55 votes in the 9th Representative District. A 2002 rematch was avoided when the newly created 8th Representative District was designed and included the area where Hall-Long lived. Hall-Long won the newly created 8th District seat and Cathcart was re-elected in the 9th Representative District,each winning in a landslide.
The maps were drawn and both of the 8th and the 14th District remained in Democratic hands, even though they had each moved several miles. Smith and Cathcart retained their seats and remained part of the GOP House leadership. Schroeder, who had been re-elected in 2000 with 66% of the vote, lost his redrawn district in 2002 by 44 votes to Booth. Booth beat his 2004 Democratic challenger by over 4000 votes (almost 3-1) and won in 2006 without opposition.
The net change in party power was the Republicans picked up 3 seats, increasing their majority from 26-15 to 29-12. As big a change was the change of Democratic faces in the House where 3 Democrats who lost their seats because of reapportionment were replaced by 3 other Democrats in the newly numbered 8, 14 and 5th District
In addition to the races mentioned, reapportionment impacted 3 districts in the City of Wilmington where the 2nd,3rd and 5th District had been. Redistricting placed 2nd and 3rd Representatives Hazel Plant and Arthur Scott in the newly configured 2nd Rep District. 5th District Representative Helene Keeley was placed in the new 3rd District . Democrats Plant and Keeley each won re-election to the 2nd & 3rd District. Scott was out of office after losing the Democratic primary to Plant.The designation of 5th Representative District moved to the Bear area where Democrat Melanie George won the seat.
Here is the scorecard on the representative districts that changed hands in 2002
3rd Rep Arthur Scott (D) out , Helen Keeley (D) in
5th Rep Helene Keeley (D) out, Melanie George(D) in
8th Rep Dave Brady (D) out, Bethany Hall-Long (D) in
14th Rep Rick Dilberto (D)out, Pete Schwatrzkopf (D)in
37th Rep John Schroder (D)out, Joe Booth (R) in
38th Shirley Price ( D ) out, Gerald Hocker ( R ) in
41st Charlie West ( D ) out, John Atkins ( R ) in
In case you might be concerned that only Republicans benefit from the apportionment process it is worth noting that Dave Brady (in 1982) and Rick DiLiberto (in 1992) each gained their seat following a reapportionment. Politically, you can live by the map and die by the map.
While districts are then realigned to take into account shifts in population (for example, large numbers of people moving into areas like the Middletown –Odessa-Townsend [MOT] area in New Castle County or the shore area in Sussex AND populations decreasing or remaining the same in the city of Wilmington or some areas of suburban New Castle County that have run out of areas to develop) based on census data, the actual lines often affect a handful of individuals at least as much as the population at large.
When the 2000 census indicated the MOT area was due a new district, it got district number 8. The old 8th Representative District, centered in Claymont and represented by a Democrat, was cut into multiple pieces shared by adjacent districts , each of which was represented by a Republican.
Similarly , the 2000 census indicated the beach area in Sussex County was entitled to an additional representative and district 14 went downstate. The 14th representative district, an area along Kirkwood Highway between Newark and Limestone Road which had been represented by a Democrat prior to 2002, was severed into multiple pieces shared by adjoining districts in which each was represented by a Republican .
The 37th District stayed in Sussex County, but moved it’s center of political gravity several miles west of Democratic Representative John Schroeder’s power base near the Lewes-Rehoboth beaches to take in the power base of former Georgetown Mayor Joseph Booth, a Republican who went on to beat Schroeder in Nov 2002.
The 38th District in Sussex County, represented by Democrat Shirley Price prior to 2002, had 6,799 Republicans after redistricting and 6,204 Democrats after the 2002 reapportionment. Price lost in 2002 to Republican Gerald Hocker by 4436 to 4379. In 2000 Shirley Price had won 8811-4979 against Republican opposition in a district with a friendlier map with 8,390 Democrats to 8,364 Republicans.
In Southern Sussex County the 41st District held 5,551 Democrats to 4,825 prior to an election to fill the seat vacated due to Democrat Charles West’s retirement. Despite having a registration disadvantage of over 600 voters, Republican John Atkins defeated Donald Ward 3897 to 2568. West had won by 1600 votes in 2000 in a 41st District that also had a 500 voter Democratic registration edge.
In Delaware the reapportionment is done by the legislature rather than by a commission, like some other states. For practical purposes, each House is reapportioned by the majority party in that House. In 2002 the Republicans had a majority in the House of Representatives and the Democrats had a majority in the Senate.
The House Republicans would have the incentive of majority caucus expansion (or incumbent retention, at a minimum) for dividing swing districts like the previous 8th and 14th into parts and placing those parts in districts more amenable to electing Republicans. Dave Brady, the Democrat who had represented the old 8th District, was placed in the newly configured 7th Rep Dist held by Majority Leader Wayne Smith. The 7th district in 2002 had 6,384 Republicans and 5089 Democrats. Prior to redistricting, Brady had represented an 8th District that had 4,646 Democrats to 4,000Republicans. After redistricting Rick DiLiberto, the Democrat in the old 14th, was placed in the 22nd District held by Joseph Miro and declined to run for the State House again. He faced a Republican registration edge of 6,581 to 4,434. The 14th DiLiberto had been re-elected with no opposition to represent in 2000 consisted of 4,286 Democrats to 3,458 Republicans.
Democrats Dave Brady and Rick DiLiberto each went from having a Democrat-Republican positive registration edge of at least 600 voters to each having a negative registration edge of at least 1300. Brady ran against Smith and lost by 414 votes. DiLiberto decided his better prospect in 2002 was to run against State Senator Liane Sorenson, whose Senate District overlapped the 22nd Rep district. DiLiberto lost that race by 1011 votes.
The new 14th seems to have been created to assure a Republican winning the new seat with 6,430 Republicans to 6,061 Democrats. Many were likely surprised when Democrat Pete Schwartzkopf won in the district which Republicans may not have expected.
In the Cape Gazette (1-20-2006) Bridin Reynolds reported:
“ You would be hard pressed to find anyone who agrees with how the last redistricting lines were created,” said Rep. Pete Schwartzkopf, D-Rehoboth Beach.
Ironically, Schwartzkopf won a reapportioned new district many consider gerrymandered to further the Republican hold on the state House. “I beat the odds and even my amiable and worthy opponent, Mike Meoli, acknowledges that the lines were calculated to favor a Republican,” said Schwartzkopf.
In negotiations to draw election-district maps, the district Schwartzkopf represents was created based on 38 percent growth reported for coastal Delaware in the 2000 federal Census, giving Sussex County additional representation.
With a strong hold on the House, Republican leaders sized up the surrounding area and dramatically changed existing boundaries. “These lines were then drawn to manipulate competition,” said Schwartzkopf.
At the time, sitting legislators compromised by drawing a potential Lewes Republican candidate, Jud Bennett, out of the proposed new district, and certain Democratic Dewey Beach candidate, former Mayor Bob Frederick, out of the new district.
http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/0106/redistricting012006.html
capegazette
Reapportionment’s potential incumbent retention appears to have been at play in the MOT area, where in 2000 Democrat Bethany Hall-Long lost to incumbent Republican Richard Cathcart by 55 votes in the 9th Representative District. A 2002 rematch was avoided when the newly created 8th Representative District was designed and included the area where Hall-Long lived. Hall-Long won the newly created 8th District seat and Cathcart was re-elected in the 9th Representative District,each winning in a landslide.
The maps were drawn and both of the 8th and the 14th District remained in Democratic hands, even though they had each moved several miles. Smith and Cathcart retained their seats and remained part of the GOP House leadership. Schroeder, who had been re-elected in 2000 with 66% of the vote, lost his redrawn district in 2002 by 44 votes to Booth. Booth beat his 2004 Democratic challenger by over 4000 votes (almost 3-1) and won in 2006 without opposition.
The net change in party power was the Republicans picked up 3 seats, increasing their majority from 26-15 to 29-12. As big a change was the change of Democratic faces in the House where 3 Democrats who lost their seats because of reapportionment were replaced by 3 other Democrats in the newly numbered 8, 14 and 5th District
In addition to the races mentioned, reapportionment impacted 3 districts in the City of Wilmington where the 2nd,3rd and 5th District had been. Redistricting placed 2nd and 3rd Representatives Hazel Plant and Arthur Scott in the newly configured 2nd Rep District. 5th District Representative Helene Keeley was placed in the new 3rd District . Democrats Plant and Keeley each won re-election to the 2nd & 3rd District. Scott was out of office after losing the Democratic primary to Plant.The designation of 5th Representative District moved to the Bear area where Democrat Melanie George won the seat.
Here is the scorecard on the representative districts that changed hands in 2002
3rd Rep Arthur Scott (D) out , Helen Keeley (D) in
5th Rep Helene Keeley (D) out, Melanie George(D) in
8th Rep Dave Brady (D) out, Bethany Hall-Long (D) in
14th Rep Rick Dilberto (D)out, Pete Schwatrzkopf (D)in
37th Rep John Schroder (D)out, Joe Booth (R) in
38th Shirley Price ( D ) out, Gerald Hocker ( R ) in
41st Charlie West ( D ) out, John Atkins ( R ) in
In case you might be concerned that only Republicans benefit from the apportionment process it is worth noting that Dave Brady (in 1982) and Rick DiLiberto (in 1992) each gained their seat following a reapportionment. Politically, you can live by the map and die by the map.
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