PoliticsByTheNumbers(mostlyDelaware)

Turnout in the Jan 2011 Special Election was critical,but crossing party lines appears to have been crucial

2011-05-08T15:41:00.000-07:00

I have been in an ongoing dialogue with local radio talk show h0st and commentator , Colin Flaherty , about what created the situation where Republican Tom Kovach won the Jan 2011 Special Election for County Council President despite ceding a serious voter registration disadvantage to Democrat Tim Sheldon. Flaherty's contention is that the traditional Democratic coalition of African-Americans, labor union members and social liberals "let Sheldon down and did not turn out to vote."

Although I don't always agree with his political perspective, I have to concede Colin Flaherty is a bright fellow and in this case has a significant piece of the puzzle.
The numbers below verify that Republicans had a 4.7% higher turnout rate than the Democrats.
Turnout was a problem for Sheldon,but 1929 more Democrats voted than Republicans voted. If he and Kovach had each gotten the same percentage of their own party's voters and split the Others evenly, Sheldon would have won.

Republicans not only brought a higher percentage of their party members out for the Jan special election for New Castle County President,but also got some help from registered Democrats. The Board of Elections does not do the AGP (age,group & party)Report for Special Elections,but by contacting the New Castle County Board of Elections an individual can get a disc of voters who particpated in the special election and create it on your own.

The numbers below were taken from the disc and verify that Kovach had to have gotten at least 1487 Democrats to vote for him.The combined total vote cast by voters other than Democrats equals 15,234 (Republicans----11,935 & Others-----------3,299) . Since Kovach got 16,721, he got at least 1,487 Democratic votes (the difference between 16,721 and 15,234).

The 1,487 minimum means at a verifable minimum 10.7% of the Democrats voted for Kovach.
Of course, this example assumes Kovach received ALL of the Republicans and Others which is doubtful. Whatever number of Republicans and Others voted for Sheldon or the two third party candidate creates the need to assume that the same number of Democrats voted for Kovach. For example , if Kovach got 90% of the Republicans and Others (13,710 out of 15234) it means he had to have gotten 1523 additional Democrats to reach his total. This drives the number of Democrats Kovach would have gotten to 3010 or 21.7% of the Democrats.The more Others and Republicans you assume Sheldon got to vote for him , the more Democrats Kovach had to have gotten.

While Flaherty is right that lackluster Democratic turnout hurt Sheldon, it appears Democrats defecting to Kovach had a deterimental effect as well. We can not know exactly how many Democrats voted for Kovach, but the numbers indicate it was likely better than 1500.

Election Date: 01/13/11

PRESIDENT OF COUNTY COUNCIL

DEMOCRATIC PARTY TIMOTHY P. SHELDON ---------12139------- 41 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY THOMAS H. KOVACH ------ -----16721------- 57 . 5 %
LIBERTARIAN PARTY JAMES EDWARD CHRISTINA--- 151--------- 0 . 5 %
BLUE ENIGMA PARTY JEFFREY BROWN---------- -------- 87---------- 0 . 3 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml

From the disc from the Board of Elections:
Votes cast by Democrats-- ---13,864
Votes cast by Republicans----11,935
Votes cast by Others-----------3,299

COUNTY Registration TOTALS as of1-1-11:
Democrats 197198
Republicans 102005
Others 93398
Total 392601

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_ncc.pdf

Turnout by affiliation:
Democrats --------13,864 of 197,198 for 7.0%
Republicans ------11,935 of 102,005 for 11.7%
Others------------ 3299 of 93,398 for 3.5%
Overall turnout --29,098 of 392,601 for 7.4%

If Kovach Does Not Increase Support Outside His Arc of Triumph, 2012 Could be his Waterloo

2011-01-26T06:17:00.000-08:00

In the last post I noted that six districts which form an arc which overlaps parts the 2nd ,3rd & 8th county council districts spelled the difference between victory and defeat for Republican Tom Kovach in the January 13, 2011 special election for president of New Castle County Council. Kovach beat Democrat Tim Sheldon by 4582 votes countywide,but not including 6 representative districts ( 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th) Kovach would have lost by 223 votes. Kovach won and I am not disputing that,just pointing out that an overdependence on those 6 districts could hurt him in the future.

The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.

As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.

This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.

He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.

Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.

2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%

2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%

2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%

2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%

2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%

2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%

More Indications Relative Turnout was the key to Kovach's Win 1-13-2011

2011-01-22T19:25:00.000-08:00

Tom Kovach won in only 12 of 26 Representative Districts in the Jan 13,2001 Special Election for New Castle County Council President, but six districts provided him with a huge enough winning margin that he was able to win countywide by more than 15 percentage points. These six districts are the 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th. Because different parts of a rep district can be in different county council districts the election districts within these representative districts overlap multiple county council districts, but these districts somewhat mirror (thought do not exactly reflect )the combined borders of the 2nd, 3rd & 8th county council districts which make an arc across the northern portion of New Castle County--Kovach's Arc of Triumph, in this election.

Here is a link to a map of the 12 county council districts where you can see the arc the 2nd, 3rd & 8th council district make:

http://www.nccde.org/Council/2005Districts.htm

Here are the results & turnout in Kovach's six most productive rep districts.
The following rep districts have Democratic State reps and Democratic registration edges between 500 to 3000 more registered Ds than Rs:

4th—registered voters—16,571
Kovach won 1373 to 735 for Sheldon---638 winning margin
Total turnout 2126—12.8% turnout

6th----registered voters—17,037
Kovach won 1592 to 530 for Sheldon---1062 winning margin
Total turnout 2129----12.5% turnout

7th-registered voters- 15,225
Kovach won 1536 to 693 for Sheldon---843 winning margin
Total turnout 2247------14.8% turnout

10th-registered voters- 16,697
Kovach won 1167 to 421 for Sheldon---746 winning margin
Total turnout 1591------9.5% turnout

These two districts each have a Republican State Representative and each has between 300 & 900 more Democratic than Republican registered voters:

11th-registered voters- 16,011
Kovach won 969 to 368 for Sheldon---601 winning margin
Total turnout 1347------8.4% turnout

12th-registered voters- 15,589
Kovach won 1543 to 628 for Sheldon---915 winning margin
Total turnout 2181------14.0% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
4th Rep District (Wilmington & western suburbs)margin-----638
6th Rep District (Edgemoor)-------------------margin-----1062
7th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)--------margin-----843
10th Rep District(Brandywine Hundred)--------margin----746
11th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)-------margin----601
12th Rep District (Mt Cuba/Yorllyn)-----------margin----915
Winning margin these six--------------------------------4805

Countywide- Kovach-16,721— Sheldon-12,139 -winning margin 4582

Coming into these 6 districts Kovach is down by 223,but he walks away with the election because these districts averaged 12% turnout as a group (5% better than the county as a whole) and because they voted so lopsidedly for Kovach.

Sheldon won more Rep Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near these 6 overperforming districts Kovach had.

Here is what it looked like in the six most productive districts for Sheldon.

The following rep districts each have a Democratic State rep and Democratic registration edges between 5000 to 8000 more registered Ds than Rs:

1st Rep District—registered voters— 13,983
Sheldon won 585 to 197 for Kovach--- 388winning margin
Total turnout 785—5.6% turnout

2nd Rep District----registered voters—13,338
Sheldon won 448 to 92 for Kovach--- 356winning margin
Total turnout 544---- 4.1% turnout

3rd Rep District-registered voters-12,890
Sheldon won 268 to 68 for Kovach--- 200winning margin
Total turnout 337------2.6% turnout

5th Rep District -registered voters- 14,499
Sheldon won 448 to 263 for Kovach--- 185winning margin
Total turnout 720------5.0% turnout

13th Rep District-registered voters-13,421
Sheldon won 319 to 197 for Kovach--- 194winning margin
Total turnout 534------4.0% turnout

16th Rep District-registered voters-13,496
Sheldon won 495 to 100 for Kovach --- 395winning margin
Total turnout 599------4.4% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
1st Rep District(Wilmington & Northern suburbs)--margin----- 388
2nd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 356
3rd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 200
5th Rep District(Bear/Glasgow)--------------------margin---- 185
13th Rep District(Elsmere/Richardson Park)--------margin---- 194
16th Rep District (New Castle)------------------- margin---- 395
Winning margin these six------------------------------------1718

While Sheldon won by more than 4-1 in a couple districts and better than 3-1 in another, his most productive districts did not provide the turnout he needed to make the race closer.The average turnout in Sheldon's 6 most productive districts was 4.3% which was 2.7% less than the overall county turnout and ,more importantly,was 7.7% less than the turnout in Kovach's Arc of Triumph.

Jan 2011 registration totals:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_rep.pdf

Jan 13,2011 special elections results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

Kovach won countywide on 1-13-2011,but his popularity was not across the board. He won big in a few areas.

2011-01-15T15:19:00.000-08:00

Republican Tom Kovach won the Special Election for New Castle County Council President by 4852 votes and secured 57.5 % of the vote.He did not win big by winning all over the county,but by winning with huge margins in several locations that had higher turnout than the areas where his opponent Democrat County Councilman Tim Sheldon did well.

Sheldon won more State Representative Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near the numbers in some overperforming districts Kovach won.

Sheldon's winning margin did not break 400 votes in any of the 14 districts he won and overall turnout exceeded 900 in only one district in which Sheldon won. Kovach's winning margin exceeded 500 votes in 8 of the 12 districts in which Kovach won, including 3 in which the winning margin exceeded 840. Overall turnout in each of the 12 districts in which Kovach won was at least 900 with 4 having over 2000 total votes cast and another 7 having over 1000 total votes cast.

People did not come out to vote as much in areas where Sheldon was strong. They came out in large enough numbers in selected areas that favored Kovach which created an upset in a race when the registration edge favored the Democrats.

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some Northern suburbs-
Sheldon:585-197 winning margin 388

2nd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:448-92 winning margin 356

3rd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:268-68 winning margin 200

4th-Wilmington & some Western suburbs-
Kovach:1373-735 winning margin 638

5th-Bear/Glasgow-
Sheldon:448-263 winning margin 185

6th-Edgemoor-
Kovach:1592-530 winning margin 1062

7th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach: 1536-693 winning margin 843

8th-Southern New Castle County –
Kovach: 540-461 winning margin 79

9th-Southern New Castle County-
Kovach:1061-629 winning margin of 432

10th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:1167-421 winning margin of 746

11th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:969-368 winning margin of 601

12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-
Kovach: 1543-628 winning margin 915

13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-
Sheldon:319-197 winning margin 122

15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-
Sheldon:369-319 winning margin 50

16th-New Castle-
Sheldon:495-100 winning margin 395

17th-New Castle-
Sheldon:463-347 winning margin 116

18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-
Sheldon:389-339 winning margin 50

19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-
Sheldon:487-358 winning margin 129

20th-Hockessin/Stanton-
Kovach:1097-535 winning margin 562

21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Rte 2-
Kovach792-538 winning margin254

22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-
Kovach:1143-598 winning margin 545

23rd-Western Newark-
Sheldon:479-421 winning margin 58

24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-
Sheldon:370-298 winning margin 72

25th-Eastern Newark-
Sheldon:310-302 winning margin 8

26th-Bear Glasgow-
Sheldon:164-122 winning margin 42

27th-Glasgow-
Kovach:486-409 winning margin 77

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

14th and 38th Rep Districts have twice the percentage of absentee voters as state average for last 3 elections

2010-12-02T19:00:00.000-08:00

I was asked if the higher proportion of absentee ballots cast in the 14th & 38th Representative Districts in 2010 was part of an ongoing pattern and the answer is yes. Each of these districts had a percentage of absentee voters to machine voters that was twice the statewide average for each of the last 3 elections (2006, 2008 & 2010). Unfortunately, prior to 2006 the delaware Elections Commissioner's website shows only total votes cast and does not break down votes cast between machine and absentee votes.
Here are the numbers:

2010-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 307,367 votes cast, 11,660 were absentee votes or
3.8% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of of 12,005 votes cast, 934 were absentee votes or
7.8% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 11,583 votes cast, 907 were absentee votes or
7.8 % of the were absentee

2008-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 398,134votes cast, 21,039 were absentee votes or
5.3 % of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 14,024 votes cast, 1,624 were absentee votes or
11.6% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 13,433 votes cast, 1,504 were absentee votes or
11.2% of the were absentee

2006-U S Representative race
Statewide-- out of 251,694 votes cast, 8,150 were absentee votes or
3.2% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 9,512 votes cast, 585 were absentee votes or
6.2 % of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 9,380 votes cast,638 were absentee votes
6.8% of the were absentee

It does not appear to be related to be a concerted partisan effort in either direction. Republican Christine O'Donnell lost in the 14th to Joe Biden in 2008 and Chris Coons in 2010.She won in the 38th in 2010 over Coons, while losing to Biden by 480 votes in 2008. Republican Mike Castle beat Dennis Spivack in each of the districts in 2006.

The Castle -Spivack race was used for 2006 because factoring in absentee write-in votes in the US Senate race in which O'Donnell got over 11,000 write-in votes looked like a cumbersome process due to the way the website recorded write-in votes.

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Some Areas downstate had a higher proportion of absentee voting in 2010

2010-11-27T09:55:00.000-08:00

While Kent & Sussex County supplied less than half the votes cast in the 2010 election in Delaware, Sussex County had pockets of voters where the percentage of absentee ballots cast was much higher than upstate districts.

There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.

In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.

US Senator

-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State

COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml

It was a different story with absentee balloting.

UNITED STATES SENATOR

Statewide totals
Candidate**MachineVotes**Absentee**********Total
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************

5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/absentee/2010/2010_gen_data.shtml

Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.

Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
2nd-Wilmington-308
3rd-Wilmington-111
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
5th-Bear/Glasgow-100
6th-Edgemore-235
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-115
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
20th-Hoekessin/Stanton-297
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111
27th-Glasgow-134

Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
29th-Hartley/Marydel-293
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
31st-Dover-424
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344
34th-Camden-Wyoming/Woodside-392

Sussex
14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
35th-Bridgeville/Greenwood-265
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907
39th-Seaford/Blades-276
40th-Laurel/Delmar-228
41st-Millsboro/Frankford/Gumboro-417

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwres.shtml

Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose

2010-11-11T07:06:00.000-08:00

Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.

Here are the current registration numbers:

County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total

New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml

In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:

US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%

US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%

State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%

Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%

I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml

Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %

SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml

There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.

Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html

19th senate Primary appears to have increased turnout in the US Senate primary/this area could be November battleground

2010-10-03T07:44:00.000-07:00

GOP primary turnout statewide was 32% . Sussex County turnout was 38.6%. Turnout in the 19th State Senate District was 42%.

Despite accounting for 5.4% of the registered Republicans statewide (9,846 out of 182,796)the 19th senate district accounted for 7.3% of the US Senate primary voters on primary day(4215 out of 57,584). Since this a district that O'Donnell won better than two to one, this higher turnout obviously helped her.

We don't need totally to just assume that the local state senate contest is what drew many voters out. The numbers verify that to a degree. At seven of 16 polling places no more people voted in the US Senate race than the 19th state senate race.At four out of 16 polling places more voters cast ballots in the local state senate race than in the US Senate race. In the 4th of th 35th,the 8th of the 36th,the 6th of the 37th and the 3rd of the 39th a few more voters cast ballots in the 19th State Senate race. In the 6th of the 35th and 5th of the 36th and the 8th of the 37th the number of votes was exactly the same. In any of the tie districts if any voters came in to vote only in the US Senate race, it means that some others voted only in the local race. At any rate, these numbers appear to prove that at seven out of 16 polling places the US Senate race did not generate more interest ( as gauged by actual votes cast) than the local state senate race.

It is a handful of voters and it won't matter unless the winning margin is narrow,but it is curious that in the highest profile statewide Republican primary in years in which the two candidates appeared to represent clearly different views of what the Republican Party is or should be, that some voters would see that contest as no more compelling than their state senate contest. It is not possible to tell whether these voters are waiting until November and will vote for the GOP nominee as a matter of course and were sitting out the intraparty squabble or viewed the Castle/O'Donnell race as a "pox on both houses" and will not vote for O'Donnell or will not vote at all in this race in November.

State Senator Booth does not have a general election opponent and possibly people realized the primary would settle who takes the seat and that became some of the motivation.

Although Booth is unopposed in the general election, 3 out of four state rep districts whose parts comprise the 19th state senate district have contests for state representative which should keep turnout respectable relative to the statewide turnout.The 35th, 36th and 37th each has a contest. In the 39th which supplies only two of the 16 election districs in this senate district , Rep Daniel Short is unopposed.

Since in these four rep districts O'Donnell did particularly well in 2008's US Senate general election, these merit watching this year. She beat Joe Biden in the 35th and the 39th .She lost the 36th by only 130 votes while losing by over 600 in the 37th.

If Chris Coons is to beat her he needs to offset a possible loss in this area with votes in other (most likely upstate) areas of the state and cut into her margin in this area. I am betting we will be seeing him at the Apple Scrapple Festival in Bridgeville next weekend.

District Democrats Republicans Others Total

01 OF 35- 1,082 ----1,247 -------587 ---2,916
02 OF 35- 1,942---- 1,621------- 981--- 4,544
03 OF 35- --247-------264------- 142----- 653
04 OF 35- 1,217----- -780------- 495--- 2,492
06 OF 35- --482------ 468------- 306--- 1,256
07 OF 35--- 319------ 228------- 161----- 708
RD Total--5,289-----4,608------2,672---12,569

04 OF 36- 1,017------ 777------- 604--- 2,398
05 OF 36--- 260------ 254------- 154----- 668
06 OF 36- 1,106------ 768------- 545--- 2,419
08 OF 36--- 629------ 386------- 273--- 1,288
RD Total- 3,012---- 2,185----- 1,576--- 6,773

04 OF 37-- -179------ 234------- 118----- 531
05 OF 37--- 464------ 639------- 272--- 1,375
06 OF 37--1,130------ 948------- 578--- 2,656
08 OF 37--- 248------ 136------- 106----- 490
RD Total- 2,021---- 1,957----- 1,074--- 5,052

01 OF 39--- 264------ 405------- 168----- 837
03 OF 39--- 572------ 691------- 328--- 1,591
RD Total--- 836---- 1,096------- 496--- 2,428

SD Total- 11,158--- 9,846----- 5,818--- 26,822

UNITED STATES SENATOR

District Total CASTLE M O'DONNELL
01-35 ---556--- 136----- ----420

02-35-- -688-- 198--------- 490

03-35-- --89--- 23---------- 66

04-35- --329--- 102-------- 227

06-35- 180----- 40--------- 140

07-35- 98------ 33--------- 65

04-36- 277----- 77-------- 200

05-36- 95 ------25--------- 70

06-36- 304---- 108-------- 196

08-36- 156----- 44-------- 112

04-37- 112----- 30--------- 82

05-37- 338---- 144-------- 194

06-37- 487---- 262-------- 225

08-37-- 52----- 16--------- 36

01-39- 166----- 45-------- 121

03-39- 288---- 110-------- 178

Total -4215---1393--------2822

District Total BODENWEISE BOOTH J W

01-35-- 550---- 367---------- 183

02-35-- 685---- 315---------- 370

03-35--- 87----- 56----------- 31

04-35-- 330---- 189---------- 141

06-35-- 180---- 121----------- 59

07-35--- 96----- 45----------- 51

RD Tot- 1928--- 1093--------- 835

04-36--- 272---- 162--------- 110

05-36---- 95----- 55--------- 40

06-36--- 299----- 126-------- 173

08-36--- 157----- 79--------- 78

RD Tot-- 823---- 409--------- 401

04-37--- 111---- 56----------- 55

05-37--- 335--- 108---------- 227

06-37--- 491--- 113--------- 378

08-37---- 52--- 30----------- 22

RD Tot-- 989-- 307---------- 682

01-39--- 164-- 83----------- 81

03-39--- 290-- 132--------- 158

RD Tot-- 454-- 215--------- 239

Cand Tot- 4194- 2037----- 2157

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml

I thought she was a regional candidate and O'Donnell's win affirms that

2010-09-17T14:21:00.000-07:00

Like many observers I predicted US Rep Mike Castle would defeat Christine O'Donnell in the GOP US Senate primary and I was wrong. In my Aug 29,2009 post I mentioned I perceived her greatest chance would come from the increased Republican registrations in Kent & Sussex Counties since 2000 and decreased Republican registrations in New Castle County over the last decade. On this point I was correct,but I did not anticipate the type of turnout we saw in Sussex County.

While voter turnout statewide was up from what I predicted at 8-10% based on prior turnout, that was most prevalent in Sussex County where O'Donnell almost beat Castle 2-1.

Kent & Sussex provided 18,653 (Sussex) + 9669 (Kent) for 28,322 votes out of 81,300 registered Republican voters .
New Castle County provided 29,262 votes out of 101,496 registered voters
Despite having 20,196 fewer registered Republicans, Kent and Sussex only provided 940 fewer voters. This unheard of turnout combined with O'Donnell's popularity South of the C&D Canal to give her the statewide victory.

UNITED STATES SENATOR--New Castle--Kent----Sussex----State
CASTLE MICHAEL N.--------- -16,891-----3,518---6,612-----27,021
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE------ 12,371-----6,151---12,041----30,563
Office Total----------- ----------29,262-----9,669---18,653----57,584

Republican Registration by County
New Castle-----101,496
Kent-------------32,948
Sussex----------48,352
Total-----------182,796

Statewide turnout was 31.5%
New Castle County----28.8%
Kent----------------------29.3%
Sussex-------------------38.6%

As she heads into the November general election this is the registration disadvantage O'Donnell faces:

County------- Democrats---- Republicans-- Others-------- Total
Kent ------------46,208----- 32,948------ -26,450------ 105,606
New Castle--- -194,504----- 101,496------ 92,301------- 388,301
Sussex ---------52,026------- 48,352------ 27,461------- 127,839
Statewide----- 292,738------ 182,796----- 146,212------- 621,746

I think the balancing act ahead of her is to expand beyond the Tea Party supporters to include at least some more moderates in her coalition, while at the same time not being seen as backing off of the values that initially attracted her primary supporters to her in the first place.

A more daring strategy with more risk might be to not try to expand the coalition as much as energize her base and try to get every possible general election voter that agrees with the values she espoused to win the primary. This strategy assumes a low turnout among the Democrats or a perception that there is a largely untapped number of non-Republican Tea Party adherents who have just been waiting for the primary to be over so they could participate.

Either of these options creates the possibility of alienating either her Tea Party supporters, who have been with her as she stormed the Republican Party, or the moderates who may help her move towards winning an election.

If she plans on building a big Republican tent that is inclusive of those who had previously opposed her,O'Donnell has some work ahead.

While the State GOP website now has a link to her campaign and Party Chair Tom Ross has called for party unity, he did mention by name either O'Donnell or Glen Urquhart, who defeated party supported Michelle Rollins in the US House race in his statement on the website.

http://www.delawaregop.com/NewsBack.aspx?guid=d66f4fa3-8871-4345-9c82-9809a9f36e75
An excerpt from a candidate profile in the Ny Times spells out some of her conservative ideals:

"When Ms. O’Donnell ran for the Senate in 2006, she described herself in an interview as, “Republican, but not a Delaware Republican.”

Ms. O’Donnell has taken positions against federal financing for stem cell research, is opposed to abortion even in cases of rape and favors tough penalties against businesses that hire illegal immigrants. She has also suggested in past television interviews that evolution is soft science, and questioned the utility of financing AIDS programs. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/us/politics/16odonnell.html

I am wondering where Republicans who consider themselves fiscal conservatives and social moderates will find a place in her campaign.
If she concedes this group (which I would contend is more prevalent in New Castle County based on her defeat in that county in the primary)to Chris Coons in the interest of political purity she may not fare as well in November as she did on primary day.

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20100901.shtml

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwoff_kwns.shtml

Pattern of DropUp in Democratic Statewide Primary

2010-09-16T17:40:00.000-07:00

Richard Korn won the Democratic Primary for Auditor on September 14, 2010. One of the realities from Tuesday's results is voter drop off for this race. 34,721 Delaware Democrats voted in the Treasurer's race and only 32,736 voted in the Auditor's race. 1,985 Democrats ( about 5% of those who entered the voting booth) passed up the opportunity to vote in the Auditor's race.

There were 7 state representative primaries and one state senate primary, but in many parts of the State in New Castle County and Sussex County the only races on the ballot were State Treasurer, Auditor of Accounts and a countywide row office. In Kent County there were no countywide or local races.

In Sussex and New Castle Counties hundreds apparently voted for Treasurer, skipped the Auditor's race and then voted in the local row ofice. What would concern me if I was the Democratic candidate in this race is that the highest portion of voters in actual numbers and percentage of voters skipping this race was in New Castle County which is the most populus of the three counties and the most Democratic. While 1,523 fewer voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race in New Castle County, the difference in turnout in the Sheriff's race is only 36 votes fewer. While 240 fewer Sussex County voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race, the difference in the Recorder of Deeds from the Treasurer's is only 35 fewer voters.

in 2006 Michael Dalto lost to Tom Wagner by 18,000 votes and the dropoff between the treasurer's race and Auditor's race was 2,326.Since over 26,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2006, it is entirely possible there is a higher proportion of the dropoff since Democrats make up more of the voting pool.

We know for sure that the 1,985 voters who did not vote in Tuesday's primary for Auditor were all Democrats who had taken the time to go vote.

Getting 2,000 people to not dropoff will not be THE deciding factor unless the winning margin is razor thin, but if the general election is even somewhat close convincing the primary voters to vote again in November and complete the ballot could make an impact on the outcome.

Statewide Results
Treasurer
Flowers---------18,841
Jones-Potter----15,880
Total------------34,721
Auditor
Korn------------17,639
Matluskey-------15,097
Total-----------32,736

New Castle County
Treasurer
Flowers---------12,300
Jones-Potter----11,468
Total------------23,768

Auditor
Korn------------12,339
Matluskey-------9,906
Total------------22,245
1523 voters dropped of from Treasurer to Auditor (6% dropoff)

Sheriff
Navarro--------15,032
Walsh------------8710
Total------------23,742

Sussex County
Treasurer
Flowers--------4,089
Jones-Potter---2,583
Total-----------6,672

Auditor
Korn-----------3,201
Matluskey----3,231
Total-----------6,432
240 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (3% dropoff)

Recorder of Deeds
Brady--- ------3785
Roach---------2852
Total-----------6637

Kent

Treasurer
Flowers---------2,452
Jones-Potter----1,829
Total------------4,281
Auditor
Korn------------2,099
Matluskey-------1,960
Total-----------4,059
222 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (5%)

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general_office.shtml

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml

State Senate Primary may increase impact of the 19th State senate District in GOP statewide primary

2010-09-11T20:29:00.000-07:00

In 2006 14,386 Republicans voted in the U.S. Senate race in which 2505 votes went for Christine O’Donnell. 301 votes were cast in the 35th Rep District, 367 votes were cast in the 36th Rep District. 469 votes were cast in the 37th Rep District.1137 votes (of which O’Donnell got 130 votes) were cast in these three Rep Districts. These 3 districts accounted for 7% of the total votes cast in the statewide primary.

In 2004’s 21,670 votes were cast statewide in the GOP primary for Governor with 590 cast in the 35th, 729 cast in the 36th and 813 cast in the 37 th . These districts accounted for 2132 votes cast or 9% of votes cast statewide.

In 2008 in the GOP primary for Governor the 35th accounted for 1094 votes, the 36th accounted for 1564 and the 37th accounted for 1746. 4404 votes were cast in these 3 rep districts or 15 % of the 28,972 total votes cast statewide in that race.

In 2004 and 2006 none of these districts had a local primary,but in 2010 there is hotly contested race for the 19th State Senate seat which has at least four election districts in each of these Rep Districts which comprise 14 of the 16 election districts in the 19th Senate District.

In 2008 when the relative impact statewide of these three districts was significantly higher, there were local primaries . Sussex County Council District 2 and 3 each had a GOP primary . 20 election districts within the boundaries of these two county council districts are in one of these 3 state rep districts which have at least 4 EDs which are in the 19th State Senate District. The portions of these County Council Districts that were in these rep districts provided 976 in the 35th, 155 in the 36th 691 in the 37th in the 2nd County Council District and 58 in the 35th 1417 in the 36th and 1069 in the 37th in the 3rd County Council District . 4366 voters cast ballots in one of these three rep districts in one of these two county council races.

Since that is only 38 fewer voters than voted in the Governor’s race it is entirely possible that hundreds of voters may have been brought to the polls by their interest to vote in the local race and then voted in the statewide race. If this is not the case what could explain twice as many voters participating in 2008 than 2004, both presidential years involving the same opponents, Bill Lee & Mike Protack? While the statewide GOP votes cast went up only 33% from 21,670 to 28,972, the turnout numbers in these districts more than doubled from 2132 to 4404.

The fact is that of the 3 examples the only one in which the percent of statewide total exceeds 10% is the one where local primaries are involved.

I can not predict the amount of the impact,but I think the 19th State Senate primary will drive up the relative impact these three rep districts have on the statewide GOP primaries for US Senate and US Rep .

Numbers quoted are the from the Delaware State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Geography of recent registrants may help O'Donnell if primaries South of the C&D Canal increase turnout ,but I doubt it will be enough to beat Castle

2010-08-29T19:10:00.000-07:00

Christine O'Donnell may have a few things in her favor.
Her support seems to be disproportionally stronger in downstate Delaware where she did well in several election districts in the 2008 general election despite losing 2-1 statewide.
Over the last ten years Sussex County & Kent County have incresed their share of the Republican electorate.
It also appears that Mike Castle has taken notice of a possible threat in lower Delaware.

From:

http://www.delawareliberal.net/2010/09/01/castle-is-scared-now/

It looks like Rep. Mike Castle isn’t taking his Tea Party Express-backed primary opponent lightly: The Republican has purchased $113K worth of airtime before the primary. [...] A Dem source that monitors media buys tells Hotline On Call that Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market. That market broadcasts into southern DE. Castle has also purchased $26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/castle_going_on.php

Over the past decade the number of registered Republicans statewide has increased from 171,446 in 2000 to 182,989 in 2010 for an increase of 11,543 or a 6% increase. Sussex County has increased from 38,059 to 48,755 for an increase of 10,696 or 28%. Kent County has increased from 26,056 to 32,852 for an increase of 6796 or 26%. The number of registered Republicans in New Castle County decreased from 107,331 to 101,382 for a loss of 5949 or 5%.

If the two Southern counties are most hospitable to O'Donnell's candidacy, this increase might benefit her. She also may benefit from the Sussex County primary in the 19th State senate and three State Rep primaries in Kent County in the 29th ,31st and 33rd districts which may drive up local turnout.

WDEL host John Flaherty has pointed out that the campaign of Glen Urquhart , conservative candidate for the U.S. Representative seat , may have helped O'Donnell by espousing a similar set of issue statements and appealing to the same base in a campaign with a larger media budget with more airtime. Urquhart had been running radio ads for several weeks before O'Donnell was able to do so and it is possible he could energize some conservative voters into making it to the polls with the result that they would also vote for O'Donnell while in the voting booth for him( an electoral version of collateral damage).

Unfortunately for O'Donnell,despite losing several thousand Republicans over the last ten years New Castle County still has 101,382 Republicans to 81,607 in Kent & Sussex. For O'Donnell to win, turnout would have to be skewed in a way that several percentage points higher turnout took place in Kent & Sussex County and O'Donnell beat Castle 2-1 throughout the bulk of the these districts because I feel Castle will come out of New Castle County considerably ahead.

I also think Castle is likely to beat her handily in the 14th Rep District in the beach area of Eastern Sussex and may do the same in the 37th. Of the 686 votes cast in the 14th in the 2006 GOP Senate primary Jan Ting got 381 to O'Donnell's 86 and Mike Protack's 219. In the 37th out of 469 votes cast Ting got 280 to O'Donnell's 39 and Protack's 150.
I am thinking anywhere Ting won that big Csatle won't lose.I doubt O'Donnell's socially conservative message will fly here as well as in Western Sussex.

The 14th & 37th districts may be perceived as a test to see if Castle's work on beach replenishment is seen as government intruding in people's lives or as a needed infrastructure help which will bring people and therefore profits for small businesses in the resort area. As recently as September 10, 2010 Castle was touting beach replenishment in Bethany Beach:

http://www.delmarvanow.com/article/20100910/NEWS01/9100308/1002/Federal-dollars-replenish-beaches

In districts like the 4th Rep district and 12 district where Ting got more votes than O'Donnell & Protack combined, I expect Castle to do as well. In the 7th,10th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred Ting did almost that well and I expect Castle to do better than Ting,since they both had the party endorsement and Castle has higher name recognition and a stronger campaign organization after decades in elected office.

The 14th & 37th in Eastern Sussex should somewhat offset the areas of Western Sussex where O'Donnell may make inroads and may win multiple election districts.

I think New Castle County more than offsets whatever victories O'Donnell has in Kent & Sussex.

I think Castle is likely to win by 10-15 % points.

8-1-2010
statewide-GOP 182,989
Sussex County-48,755
Kent Republicans 32,852
New Castle -101,382

2-1-2010
statewide- 180,620
Sussex 47,614
Kent 32,345
New Castle- 100,661

http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml

11-2008
Sussex County-46,302
Kent 32,354
New Castle-103,202
181,858 –statewide

11-2006
Sussex County-44,655
New Castle-103,465
178,655 Republicans Statewide
Kent Republicans 30,535

11-2004
Sussex County-42,487
Kent-28,864
New Castle-110,159
Statewide-181,510

11-2002
Sussex County-40,219
Kent-26,756
New Castle-108,351
Statewide-175,376

11-2000
Sussex County-38,059
Kent-26,056
New Castle-107,331
Statewide-171,446

http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml

Protack might not want to pin primary hopes on newly registered voters and whoever becomes the GOP nominee has less of an edge than just 3 years ago

2010-08-28T19:00:00.000-07:00

Mike Protack is once again the nonendorsed Republican in a primary. Bill Tansey, who is retiring as the third district county council member in New Castle County, recruited and endorsed Protack's primary opponent Janet Kilpatrick. Befitting a feisty outsider, Protack told the News-Journal's Chad Livengood :

"That's not an endorsement I would look for or accept,"

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=20108250342

I had read about the campaigns of two Democrats without their party leadership endorsements in 2008, Barack Obama for President and Jack Markell for Delaware's Governor, who benefited from new voters. Obama was reported to have brought totally new voters to the polls while Markell was reported to have gotten several hundred Republicans (maybe more) to switch registration so they could support him in the Democratic primary.

Here is an article from BBC about Obama's 2008 popularity among new voters:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7709852.stm

In his post-primary recap in Sept 2008 blogger Tommy Wonk asserted :

“thousands of Republicans switched their registration to support Jack Markell”.

http://www.tommywonk.com/2008/09/jack-markell-and-tim-mcbride.html

You may dispute the exact numbers and how they became Democrats (new registrant or switching registration),but it is a fact that the number of registered Democrats in relation to the number of Republicans increased dramatically prior to the primary season in 2008. Between Sept 2007 and May 2008 an additional 12,162 Democrats were on the rolls,but Republicans only increased by 637.

9-1-2007
249,716 Democrats and 178,081 Republicans

05/01/08

261,878 Democrats and 178,718 Republicans

I wondered if a similar strategy might at work in the 3rd County Council District and it appears not to be the case.

The numbers below indicate that since Oct 1, 2009 the number of Republican registered voters in the 3rd County Council District only increased by 41. This means unless the winner has a razor thin victory margin of less than 42 voters, whoever wins will need the vast majority of their votes to come from prior registered Republicans.

This would seem to tilt in Janet Kilpatrick's favor since Tansey was popular enough to unseat an incumbent in 2002 and to run unopposed in 2006 with no primary opponent or general election opponent.

The registration figures still lean to the Republicans.Since Bill Tansey was sworn in for his second term in Jan 2007,the advantage has lessened.Republicans have 431 fewer registered voters since Jan. 2007. Democrats still trail by over 2,000 registered voters,but have picked up 1606 more registered Democrats.

8-1-2010
11,330 Democrats and 14,113 Republican registered voters in the 3rd County Council District in New Castle County
182,982 Republican registered voters statewide

10-1-2009
11,257 Democrats and 14,072 Registered Republicans in the 3rd District
180,064 Republicans registered statewide.

09/01/08

10,904 Democrats and 14,260 Republicans

1-1-2007
9,724Democrats and 14,544 Republicans

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/

How Has Mike Protack done in the 3rd County Council running before statewide?

2010-08-19T00:39:00.000-07:00

Past performance is no guarantee of future results,but I thought it might be interesting to review how Mike Protack ,who has run statewide in Republican primaries three times, has performed as a vote getter in the third county council district where he is running to fill the seat being vacated by the retirement of Bill Tansey.

Getting exact numbers is difficult, if not impossible, due to the merging of polling places during primaries. Polling places may be merged due to builidng availability, parking issues on primary day when some regular polling sites which might be closed on general election day are open on primary election creating more demand for parking, staffing issues for an election with a much lower turnout and other issues as determined by the Board of Elections.

There are 29 election districts in the 3rd county council district and in the four primaries since the 2002 redistricting this merging has not created 29 distinct election districts for election result purposes.

Below are the number of districts within the current 3rd district reporting results on the New Castle County Board of Election website:
20 in 2008
20 in 2006
21 in 2004
24 in 2002
(In 2002 what is now the 3rd district comprised roughly half of what was then the third district which was split in 2004 when county council expanded to 12 districts.The other half of the old district 3 is now district 9)

This means election districts were merged and some could possibly have merged with adjacent EDs that might not be in the third district which would not have been a concern for the elections department ,if there was no local primary. This means the results I quote will be a thumbnail sketch-not an exact tally of how Mike Protack did votewise.

In 2004 approximately 2240 votes were cast in a three way Republican gubernatorial primary (won statewide by Bill Lee)in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 445 for 19%.

In 2006 approximately 1,761 votes were cast in a three way Republican primary for U.S. Senate primary (won statewide by Jan Ting)in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 713 votes for 40%

In 2008 approximately 2644 votes were cast in the two way Republican gubernatorial primary (won statewide by Bill Lee) in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 626 for 23%.

In 2006 an off-year election with a lower turnout, Protack got significantly more votes and a much higher percentage. If he benefits from the lower turnout of an off-year election, his race this year could be his best shot at success.

In 2002 this half of the old third county council district supplied approximately 2,397 votes in the Bill Tansey-Rick Abbott primary for county council, but that primary took place the year after redistricting and was so hotly contested that Tansey won it by only 9 votes as Abbott, the incumbent at the time, maintained a higher media profile than either of the candidates currently running and then County Executive Tom Gordon mobilized resources behind Tansey.

I would assume the turnout may be lower in 2010 than 2002. It will be interesting to see if the turnout is lower and if Protack benefits from whatever the turnout is.

Some Updated Thoughts on the outcome of the GOP US Senate Race

2010-08-09T17:35:00.000-07:00

I thought the place to start would be some parameters.

Christine O'Donnell got 17.4% (2505 votes) in the 2006 3 -way primary in which she placed third. She was not the organization endorsed candidate and was outspent.

In 2008 as the GOP nominee for Senate, she lost to incumbent Senator Joe Biden ,but her losing margin was not outside the range of other statewide Republicans who lost. She received 35.3 % to Ins Commissioner candidate John Brady's 41.0%,Presidential candidate John McCain's 36.9 %. GOP Governor candidate Bill Lee's 32.0 % and GOP Lt. Gov candidate Charlie Copeland's 38.7%. While she was trounced in New Castle County along with her ballot mates except Mike Castle, she lost closer than Lee & Copeland in Sussex County where she only lost by 272 votes of 86,518 cast countywide. She lost Kent by a smaller margin than Bill Lee,who was making his third bid for the office of governor.

O'Donnell is once again in a statewide primary in which she is not the organization endorsed candidate and it is likely she will be outspent.I am assuming that since she has run twice statewide, has more name recognition and shown some visible support downstate she will get in 2010 at least the 17.4% she received in 2006.

Jan Ting, a Republican party regional leader who had never before held elected office, won the 2006 primary with 42.5% of the vote (6110 votes). Ting ran as the organization endorsed candidate. I am assuming that U.S. Rep Mike Castle, who is the organization endorsed candidate in 2010, has held statewide elected office since 1980 and has a much larger campaugn fund than O'Donnell, will do at least as well as Jan Ting and will get at least 42.5% of the vote.

My contention is Castle and O'Donnell are fighting over the 40.1% of the vote (5771 in 2006) that Mike Protack received and whatever new primary voters each side can bring out.

If this theory is remotely accurate, Castle can lose 4 of 5 former Protack voters (thereby getting only 8 of the 40% that Protack had gotten in 2006) and still get more than 50% of the overall vote. Since there is no guarantee that O'Donnell was the second choice of the majority of Protack's voters, she definitely has an uphill fight. It is also possible that some of Protack's strongest supporters may stay home rather than voter for either of them , a scenario which I think benefits Castle since it would tough to generalize Protack's supporters as reliable supporters of the Republican statewide organization.

2006 Delaware statewide primary results:

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary_office.shtml

2008 statewide general election results by subdivision:

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect08/elect08_general_election/html/elect08_gen_KWNS.shtml

2008 Dem. Primary offers new examples of locals drawing more votes than Insurance Commissioner & these are in swing districts

2010-07-25T04:28:00.000-07:00

The legislative districts I had looked at last week in assessing whether the local legislative races drew more voter activity than the statewide row offices were mostly Democratic strongholds. The 5th ,the 13th,the 16th the 17th state rep districts all have lopsided Democratic registration edges . The 1st, 2nd and 3rd rep districts have lopsided registration edges and have not been held by a Democrat at least since Nixon was president.

I began to wonder if this theory held true in swing districts that did not have a recent history of having a Democrat elected and where there was not an overwhelming Democratic regsitration edge. I looked at the 4th State Senate primary and the 6th State Senate primary, since they each qualified. The 4th had been held since the 2002 reapportionment by Republican Charlie Copeland and the area had been served prior to that by Republican Dallas Winslow. The 6th State Senate seat had been held by Republican Liane Sorenson since the 2002 reapportionment and the parts of the district in Newark not served by Sorenson prior to reapportionment had been served by Republican Steve Amick ,who saw his district shift southward following redistricting.

Here are the registration figures for each district in September 2008 the month of the primary:
4th State Senate
Democrats ---10,613
Republicans --13,291
Others -------7,454
Total --------31,358

6th State Senate
Democrats ---8,267
Republicans --7,580
Others -------5,768
Total ---------21,615

Some voters in each of these districts seem to have voted in the Governor's primary, skipped the Insurance Commissioner's primary and then voted in the state senate primary.

4th State Senate
Turnout Governor's primary----------------- 4,260
Turnout Insurance Commissioner's primary----3,618
( 15% dropff from the Gov. race)
Turnout state senate primary----------------3,854
(9% dropoff from the Gov. race)
This indicates about 6% (or 1 out of 16 voters) skipped the Ins Comm race,but voted in the State Senate race.

6th State Senate
Turnout Governor's primary ----------------2,830
Turnout Insurance Commissioner's primary---2,353
(16% dropoff from the Gov. race)
Turnout state senate primary---------------2,629
(7% dropoff from the Gov. race)
This indicates about 9% (or 1 out of 11 voters) skipped the Ins. Comm race,but voted in the State Senate race.

Among the struggles facing the statewide row office candidates appears to be the task of not only getting voters to the polls,but making sure their race is not skipped by voters who take the "act locally" part of the "think globally, act locally" motto literally.

It's Not Just off-year elections when the locals get more attention than some statewide races-a 2004 example-the insurance commissioner primary

2010-07-20T16:39:00.000-07:00

I have heard the assumption that some of the diminished turnout for the U.S. Representative Democratic primaries in 2002 and 2006 relative to the state representative races might have been due to an assumption on the part of many voters that Mike Castle would not face serious opposition no matter who won and that this assumption created voter apathy for that primary race.

I decided to look at the 2004 Insurance Commissioner's statewide primary and focus only on the state rep districts where there was a local state rep primary in the hope this would offer insights into whether voters might have voted more in the Insurance Commissioner's race in relation to the state rep races since both candidates, Matt Denn and Karen Weldin Stewart, were serious contenders for elected office.

Karen Weldin Stewart lost the 2004 primary,but had gotten 47.1 % in the 2000 general election for the same office in a bid against then incumbent Republican Insurance Commissioner, Donna Lee Williams. Stewart would lose the primary to Denn in 2004,but in 2008 would win the Democratic primary and the general election . She now serves as Insurance Commissioner.

Matt Denn ,a former state senate candidate, won the 2004 primary and general election. After serving one term as Insurance Commissioner, he was elected as Lt Governor in 2008, a post in which he continues to serve.

I looked at the 9 state rep districts that had local state rep primaries and in 8 of 9 the state rep race had more votes cast than the Insurance Commissioner's race. In four of those 8 districts the dropoff from state representative to Insurance Commissioner was 5% or more.

I plan to look at the 2008 primary for the same office to see if the same trend applies, but the 2004 Insurance Commissioner's Democratic primary seems to provide another example where the local state rep race attracts more voter interest than a statewide office.

2nd Rep District
state rep race ---1820 votes cast
ins.commissioner-1638 votes cast
over/under -182 more votes were cast in state rep race than were cast in the ins comm. race.
10% dropoff from state rep to insurance commissioner

3rd

state rep race----1428 votes cast

ins commissioner-1389 votes cast
over/under-39 more votes were cast in state rep race than were cast in the ins. comm. race

2%dropoff from state rep to ins commissioner

6th

state rep race----1,149 votes cast

ins commissioner--1,167

over/under-18 more votes cast in the ins commissioner's race than the state rep race.

1% dropoff from Insurance Commissioner to state rep race

13th

state rep race--- 1,151 votes cast

ins commissioner-1,149 votes cast

over/under-2 votes cast in the state rep race that were not cast in the ins comm. race

0% dropoff

16th

state rep race----1,985 votes cast

ins.commissioner--1,818 votes were cast

over/under-167 more votes were cast in the state rep race than the ins comm. race

8% dropoff from the state rep race to the ins. commissioner race.

17th
state rep race-----1,511 votes cast
ins. commissioner--1,435 votes cast
over/under- 76 more votes were cast in the state rep race than ins comm. race
5% dropoff from state rep to insurance commissioner

30th
state rep race-----981 votes cast
ins commissioner---874 votes cast
over/under---------107 more votes were cast in the state rep race than ins comm.
10% dropoff from state rep to ins commissioner

36th
state rep race----629 votes cast
ins commissioner--620
over/under-------9 more votes cast in the state rep race than the ins comm. race.
1% dropoff from state rep to insurance commissioner

39th
state rep race----392 votes cast
ins commissioner--368 votes cast
over/under--------24 more votes cast in the state rep race than the ins comm.race
6% dropoff from state rep to ins commissioner

Total votes cast in state rep races with a Democratic primary-11,046
Total votes cast in the ins comm primary in those districts---10,458
over/under---588 more votes were cast in the state rep races than the ins comm.
Cumulative 5% dropoff from state rep race to insurance commissioner race.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/elect04_primary/elect04_primary_edrd.shtml

4 Districts near Newark & the C&D Canal may have a bigger impact than usual due to local State Rep primaries,but some voters may skip statewide races

2010-07-19T18:15:00.000-07:00

I think two districts in the Newark area (the 24th & the 27th state rep districts) and two in the C&D Canal area (state rep districts 8 & 9) are likely to have a greater than usual impact on overall countywide turnout & statewide turnout due to local state representative primaries.This affects only New Castle County-the 8th overlaps with 4 election districts in Kent County & 8 election districts in New Castle County,but Kent has no countywide primaries this election cycle. I looked at a few other off-year (2002 & 2006-nonpresidential election years) suburban Democratic primaries for comparison. The sample size is small due the limited number of primaries in Delaware,but may give us some ideas.

The 5th Rep District in the Bear-Glasgow area did not have a local primary in 2006 and out of 7,163 registered Democrats only 197 (2.75%) cast ballots in the primary on a ballot that included only New Castle County Register of Wills and U.S. Representative. 193 voted in the Congressional race and 192 voted in the Register of Wills race.

In 2002 Melanie George defeated William McMurray 376-33 in the 5th rep district,newly created after the 2002 reapportionment. Although 409 of 6,391 registered Democrats(about 6%) voted in the state rep race, only 360 voted in the Congressional primary. About 11% of the primary voters cast a ballot in the local state rep race and declined to vote in the U.S. Rep race.

2002 saw a primary in the reconfigured 16th rep district which is comprised of parts of the New Castle area and the Southbridge section of Wilmington. Former State Rep Herman Hollway, Jr attempted to unseat incumbent Bill Houghton and only lost by 30 votes in a contest that drew 1,696 votes. The U.S. Representative race only drew 1,420 votes for a voter dropoff at the top of the ballot of about 16% or 276 votes,There were 7,645 registered Democrats in 2002,so turnout was 18% for the U.S. Rep race with a 22% turnout in the state rep race.

In 2004 long time labor union activist James "JJ" Johnson won the 16th primary against Holloway,following Houghton's retirement.Johnson did not face a primary in 2006 and it appears the lack of a local primary impacted overall turnout.503 of 8,255 registered Democrats (6.09%) voted in 2006 in the 16th district. 455 of them voted in the U.S. Representative race which had fewer votes than the Register of Wills contest which drew 486 votes.

John Viola, state rep in the 26th rep district, did not have a primary in 2002. 153 votes were cast in the U.S. Representative primary that year. There were 5,842 registered Democrats in 2002,so the 153 votes would be about a 2.0% turnout. Viola had a primary in 2006 and won it 381-270 over Charles Tucker. While 651 people cast ballots in the state rep race, only 593 voted in the U.S. Representative race or a 8% drop off. 655 out of 6,276 (10.44%) voted, but only 4 of them did not vote in the state rep race .601 votes were cast in the Register of Wills race in the 26th, 8 more than the Congressional primary.

These examples would seem to indicate that the 8th,9th, 24th and 27th which have not held Democratic state rep primaries in recent years could easily see a doubling of the usual Democratic primary voter turnout in 2010 and that the state rep races might be more the beneficiary of the turnout than the countywide and statewide primaries. It also appears possible that more votes could be cast in the New Castle County Sheriff’s race than the State Treasurer’s race and Auditor’s race ,since in two of these three examples the Register of Wills drew more votes than the U.S. Representative race. Maybe this is more proof that “all politics is local”.

Here is a link to start with to research past primaries:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/primary.shtml

Here are specific links for the races discussed:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006p/turnout_rd.pdf

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006p/2006_ncc_rep.pdf

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2002p/2002p_6500.pdf

The New Castle County Board of Elections website does not offer voter registration figures for 2002, so the numbers used are the general election number from the 2002 Age,Party, Group report from the Delaware State Elections Commissioner’s website. The number used may not be exactly how many voters were registered on primary day since the general election is two months after the primary, but I believe it is fairly close and is the best available figure I could find on the web at this time.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agp2002.shtml#16

City Impact may be lessened in state/county primaries due to lack of local primaries and contests involving two elected officials

2010-07-17T18:17:00.000-07:00

Traditionally, the City of Wilmington, where the Democratic primary is often the deciding election, has enough registered Democrats and higher percentage points in turnout than suburban and rural areas to be a major deciding factor in statewide Delaware Democratic primaries and countywide primaries in New Castle County.

Wilmington will definitely be a factor in the 2010 statewide and countywide primaries,but I think it's impact will be lessened due to fewer primaries in the state legislative districts that have a city resident as a representative ( State Representative Districts 1-4) . The only state senate seat on the 2010 ballot with a city resident as incumbent, the 1st state senate district, has Harris McDowell running unopposed. In the 1st and 4th district Dennis Williams and Gerald Brady are each unopposed. Incumbent Hazel Plant is being opposed in the 2nd district by city council member, Stephanie Boulden and in the 3rd district incumbent Helene Keeley faces Robert Bovell in a rematch of their 2006 contest in which she won 600-413.

In 2006 each of these four representative districts had a primary for state representative .The 1st State Senate district which includes 7 election districts in the 1st ,2 election districts in the 3rd and 7 election districts in the 4th also had a primary. Harris McDowell won with less than a majority in a four way race in which one of his opponents was city council member Charles Potter. Williams, Plant and Keeley each won in fields with no opponent with experience as an elected official and each won with 60+% of the vote. Brady, then serving as a district city council member, won in a three-way race in which his closest competitor was at-large council member Loretta Walsh ,who Brady beat by 70 votes.

In 2002 McDowell won a primary contest against Thornton Carroll with 63% of the vote. Williams beat former Wilmington police chief Charles Pratcher 1,423 to 540 and Keeley defeated challenger Linda Cannon 685-192. Hazel Plant ,in her first election contest since winning a special election in Jan 2001 and running in a district altered by the 2002 reapportionment, had a tougher 5 way race beating her closest rival,State Representative Arthur Scott, who lived in the same district following redistricting, by only 12 votes. Also among her opponents was former city council member Gary Hutt.

It is a small sample to draw a conclusion from ,but in looking at the turnout in the U. S . Representative Democratic primaries in 2002 and 2006 I am wondering if there might be a pattern impacting voter turnout.When two elected officials go head-to-head it seems to bump up turnout overall,although much of the turnout is focused on their race and not the whole ballot.

I noticed that in 2002 when Plant had two opponents who had successfully won election in the past, Scott and Hutt, voter turnout in the U.S. Representative race was 17% (1,292 out of 7,264 Democrats voted). 1,576 voted in the 2nd state rep race, 284 more than the Congressional primary which is about a 18% droppoff from state rep to U.S. Rep.

In 2006 when she defeated a community acitivist had never held public office , Don Farrell, the turnout in the U.S. Rep race was only 9% (773 voting out of 7,953 registered Democrats). 815 people voted in the Plant-Farrell primary.The 42 people who did not vote in the U.S. Rep,but did vote in the state rep race represents about a 5% dropoff.

In 2002 when there was no primary for state rep in the 4th rep district turnout in the U.S. House primary was 12 % ( 848 out of 6,762),but when Brady and Walsh , both sitting elected officials, faced off in 2006 turnout increased to 19% (1,344 of 6,780) in the Congressional primary. This was an increase of 496 votes cast even though there were only 18 more registered Democrats! The 4th state rep primary drew 1,486 votes cast,meaning about 9% of those who voted for state rep passed up voting in the Congressional race.

McDowell's 2002 race against Carroll only turned out 2,179 voters. In 2006 2,984 voters turned out in a race in which Councilman Charles Potter was his closest opponent by several hundred votes.This represented a 21% turnout (2,984 of 14,166 registered Democrats) in an election in which countywide Democratic turnout was 8.39%.13,734 Democrats voted countywide and 21% of them voted in this state senate race.I am thinking the fact that two sitting elected officials, with name recognition,organizations and experience running campaigns, were in the race had something to do with this turnout being out of proportion to the rest of the county.

If this theory has validity where it might show an impact is the 2nd rep district where some of people who have seen Plant & Boulden on the ballot multiple times may skip other races while voting in the state rep race. For the statewide and county row office candidates it may very well be not just a matter of getting people to polls,but giving people a reason to vote in their particular race.

Good Food,Reasonable Price, Great Cause

2010-03-06T11:35:00.000-08:00

Viva Spaghetti!

The best you’ll ever taste . . .

Come to the 15th Annual Spaghetti Dinner of the 23rd RD
Democratic Committee and enjoy the best spaghetti and meatballs in Delaware – with salad, bread, drinks and dessert—for only $10.

door prizes!

live auction with products and services contributed by local businesses!!

special items from state leaders!!!

Friday, April 16, 2010, 5:30-9 PM
Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Newark
420 Willa Road—Newark

Call 368-5626
for tickets and information
__________________________________________________________
I usually don't promote events,but this is an event I have personally attended every year since 1999 except once and I have found it an enjoyable evening every time. The money raised has helped support candidates like Rep Terry Schooley , an outspoken advocate on children's issues & education issues, and Rep John Kowalko ,who has spoken out on those issues and increased the profile of issues such as affordable healthcare, wind power and an alternative vision for balancing the state budget. I think these are two capable legislators, whose styles differ --but who are both effectively serving the Newark area in the General Assembly.

US Census is Hiring, Here is some information

2010-02-17T17:06:00.000-08:00

At the risk of being perceived as what News-Journal columnist Ralph Moyed used to describe as one of those Democrats who view government as one big employment agency, I wanted to share with readers an opportunity to serve your country and get paid which only comes along once every ten years.
The US Census is hiring and the website indicates they need hundreds of thousands of workers to do this monumental task that has an impact on the number of Congressional districts in states that have more than one and can impact future federal spending and other public policy decisions.

Here is some information about working at the census

http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/

and a toll-free number to get more information:

1-866-861-2010 .

Here is the site index which lists some of the job opportunities:

http://www.census.gov/hrd/www/s_index.html

Some numbers to consider as we look at the 2010 US Senate race for Delaware

2010-02-13T17:32:00.000-08:00

Neither Mike Castle nor Chris Coons has ever lost an election.
They have only been on the ballot in the same election year twice, 2000 and 2004.
Since Coons has only run countywide in New Castle County, in this post I am looking only at election results for each of them in New Castle County only.

While it is noticeable that Castle won New Castle County by a wider margin each time, I think Coons may have faced tougher opponents in that Castagno had held elective office in the City of New Castle and Ramone is very committed to the process of being elected ,later running unsuccesfully for state senate and in 2008 was elected as state representative in the 21st district.

In each of these races about 4,000 more votes were cast for Congress than for the county race in which Coons was running. If those votes were cast and remained proportional to the votes cast in Coon's race that would have extended his margin somewhat.

Additionally, I think the more local the office the greater the chance of people abandoning party labels in certain instances. Otherwise it would not be possible for Dori Connor to continue to be re-elected as a Republican in a heavily Democratic state senate district and Republicans Terry Spence and Bill Oberle could not have held seats in districts with Democratic registration edges in the state house of Representatives for multiple decades each.

____________________________________
2004
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS
DONNELLY PAUL DEMOCRATIC 75,796
CASTLE MICHAEL N. REPUBLICAN 149,671
BARROS MAURICE J. IND OF DEL 1,345
MORRIS WILLIAM E. LIBERTARIN 1,350
Total votes cast countywide 228,162

COUNTY EXECUTIVE
COONS CHRISTOPHER A. DEMOCRATIC 131,529
CASTAGNO CHRISTOPHER REPUBLICAN 93,535
Total votes cast countywide 225,064

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2004g/ncc.pdf
__________________________________
2000
REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS
MILLER MICHEAL C. DEMOCRATIC 66,625
CASTLE MICHAEL N. REPUBLICAN 134,232
WEBSTER JAMES P. CONSTITUTN 1,585
THOMAS BRAD C. LIBERTARIN 1,736
Total votes cast countywide 204,178

PRESIDENT OF COUNTY COUNCIL
COONS CHRISTOPHER DEMOCRATIC 113,050
RAMONE MICHAEL REPUBLICAN 87,462
Total votes cast 200,512

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2000g/2000g_6300.pdf

A Book about Bloggers & the 2008 Presidential Election

2010-02-04T17:58:00.000-08:00

I recently read "Bloggers on the Bus (How the Internet Changed Politics and the Press)" by Eric Boehlert and I think a lot of people who are interested in presidential campaigns and/or political blogs will find it a good read. It covers the impact of the blogs on the 2008 presidential election with the bulk of the emphasis on the primary battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

Writers from blogs that get national attention like Huffington Post & Daily Kos are interviewed ,along with some blogs that get less media atttention . Boehlert also has comments from various campaigns about the impact of blogs and the tone that some of the blogs injected into the campaign,sometimes ramping up passion beyond the point of civil discourse --according to some of the commenters.

This book discussed the reality that politics is about issues, but also about relationships and how commentary that is too incendiary may disrupt relationships to the point that the level of discourse overshadows the issues that people claim they wish to discuss. I am not sure every reader will come away with that observation,but that is what I found.

My goal here is just to bring attention to a book I found to be a worthwhile read.

I am not a book reviewer ,so I have provided some links to people who are.

Here is a book review by the American Journalism Review:

http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=4762

Here is a link to an interview with Boehlert done by Mother Jones:

http://motherjones.com/media/2009/07/mojo-interview-media-guru-eric-boehlert

Here is a link to a interview with Boehlert done Salon.Com:

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/radio/2009/05/19/boehlert/

It is available in the New Castle County Public Library system.

Some parameters of possible voter turnout in the 2010 statewide Democratic primary Delaware

2010-01-23T18:13:00.000-08:00

The numbers below give a rough idea of what the number of voters will be at various percentages of the number of registered Democrats as of 1-1-2010. Since no race appears (at this stage in the campaign season) to be drawing anywhere near the voter attention of the 2008 Governor primary or the 2008 presidential primary, I have not done the numbers beyond 25%.

I assume the actual turnout is likely to be between 7-10%, unless the current statewide campaigns with potential Democratic primaries generate a higher public profile.

Turnout is not stable across legislative district lines. 13,734 (8.39% turnout) voted across New Castle County in 2006, the year I think makes the best comparison of the least four election cycles. 2004 & 2008 had more offices up, particularly in New Castle County which saw countywide primaries in each of those years for County Executive and County Council President. 2002 was the first year after reapportionment which created the possibility of more local primaries.

Of the 13, 734 voters who turned out in New Castle , only 12,405 voted in the Congressional primary which confirms that many voters are brought out by the local races. New Castle County represented 12,405 of the 15,768 Democrats who voted in the Congressional race or 78.7% of the turnout.

There are 27 state representative districts in New Castle County. None of those without a local state rep district had voter turnout higher than 8.2% in 2006. None of the 8 representative districts that had a state rep primary had turnout lower than 10% .Two districts , the 1st & 4th rep districts which each had a primary and also shared the overlapping primary of the 1st state senate district, each had turnout over 20% and were the only districts in New Castle County to have turnout above 15%. These districts combined for a total turnout of 3406 (1,890 in the 1st Rep Dist and 1,516 in the 4th Rep Dist or 24.8% of total turnout of Democrats countywide.

These numbers don't tell exactly what total turnout will be or exactly where it will come from,but I am guessing at the 7-10% turnout range with a disproportionate percentage coming from the rep districts where there is a local primary.

Democratic registration as of 1-1-2010:
287,821
8% turnout of 287,821=23,056 voters
10% turnout of 287,821=28,782 voters
15% turnout of 287,821=43,173 voters
20% turnout of 287,821=57,564 voters
25% turnout of 287,821=71955 voters

2008

US Rep------64,997

Gov---------73,961

Ins Comm---66,062

28%

2008

Presidential primary--94,673

38%

2006

US Rep----15,000

7%

2004

Ins Comm-31,799

14%

2004

Presidential primary----33,291

15%

2002

US Rep---17,223

Election tunrout reults are the State Election Commisioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

and the New Castle County Board of Elections website:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml#general

Delaware supports Obama-Biden which makes Ted Kaufman a good fit as Senator

2010-01-17T08:38:00.000-08:00

In yesterday's News-Journal several paragraphs into a story about US Representative Mike Castle's voting record, I noticed a number that made me curious. I think Kaufman's near 100% support of President Obama's proposals confirms that Ted Kaufman, whose appointment in 2009 to fill the US Senate seat vacated by newly elected Vice-President Joseph Biden generated some publicity over a process he had no control over, has turned out to represent the views of Delawareans well. I could not find polls on line that specifically state Obama's current approval in Delaware,but I think some realistic assumptions can be made from looking at national polls and recent election results.

From yesterday's News-Journal:
Castle opposed the majority of his party (Republican) more often than his Delaware counterparts in the Senate.
Democratic Sen. Tom Carper voted with the majority of his party 93 percent of the time and with the president's position 97 percent of the time, according to the CQ study. Kaufman voted with most other Democrats 98 percent of the time and with the president's position 98.7 percent of the time.
Kaufman's single vote against Obama's position came in favor of a measure barring the use of federal funds to move detainees at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to the United States.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/201001160345/NEWS02/1160342

In 2008 Delaware supported the Obama-Biden national ticket with 61.9% of the vote and Joe Biden's re-election bid for U S Senate with 64.7% of the vote.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect08/elect08_general_election/html/elect08_gen_office.shtml

Nationally , Obama's approval rating has decreased from 69% in Feb 2009 to about 50% in Dec2009, according to Gallop Polls:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Here is a link to RealClear Politics with information from other polling organizations that find Obama's current approval within a few points of a 50% as well:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

NPR reports that nationally Obama got 52.7% of the vote to McCain's 45.9% of the vote in the 2008 presidential election.

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html

This would seem to indicate that nationally Obama went from 52.7% of the actual votes cast to 50% approval rating, a decrease of between 2-3% in public support.
Even if Delaware's dip in support was double the national average (which is unlikely in a state with 97,000 more Democrats than Republicans in which the Democrats control of both houses of the state legislature and hold 7 of 9 statewide elected offices), Obama would still retain 55.9% support of Delawareans (61.9-6=55.9).

It is highly possible Obama's support in Delaware may be even higher than the national average.I think many Delawareans of all political persuasions do not want to see failure in an administration which includes the first vice-president from Delaware.

Whatever the exact number is for Delaware, I am pretty sure it would be over 50 % which would mean Ted Kaufman's support for the Obama agenda places his actions well within the parameters of the wishes of the majority of the Delawareans he serves.

Voter registration figures are as of 1-1-2010

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml

Some news items of note as 2009 ends

2010-01-01T09:35:00.000-08:00

Four items from 2009 stuck out to me as underrepresented in the media end of year wrapups,so here they are.

(1)RIP-Dennis Brutus

The South African anti-apartheid activist and poet died in Dec 2009 at the age of 85. His activism landed him a prison sentence in Robben Island prison and into exile for for several years. While less known than Nelson Mandela and Bishop Desmond Tutu, he was an active participant in the struggles to end apartheid in South Africa.

He was also a teacher and poet for decades.

My favorite poem by him was a haiku:

"The mirror reflects, the viewer sets the angle"

Here is a link to the Washington Post obituary for Dennis Brutus:

http:www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/27/AR2009122700412.html

(2) 20 year anniversary of Tiananmen Square

At the time I viewed this as a clear cut democracy movement attempting to move China towards a Western style democracy. The more I read the more nuanced it appears to have been. Whatever the motives of the demonstrators, the reality is the demonstrations resulted in the toppling of the General Secretary viewed as too liberal in his treatment of the demonstrators, Zhao Ziyang, and the ascendency of the more hard line Li Peng,who had succeeded Zhao Ziyang as premier.

While there were certainly many seeking a more democratic society in China, behind the scenes it appears some party members were angling to line up behind whoever they perceived would be the ultimate winners in an internal Communist Party power struggle.
Since many of the principal players in the demonstrations were in their early 20s in 1989 and are still young enough to have many more productive years, it will be interesting to see if they are able to impact China's future as leadership in China changes over coming decades.

Some books that shed light on China over the last 30 years:

***Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang

Zhao Ziyang served in multiple postions withing China over several decades ,but was unseated as Premier for what the inner circle of the Chinese Communist Party perceived too soft a stance in dealing with the protesters at Tiananmen Square. He spent the last several years of his life under house arrest.

***Tiananmen Moon:Inside the Chinese Student Uprising of 1989 by Philip J Cunningham

Cunningham , an American who lived & studied for years in China, served as translator for the BBC and other media outlets during the uprising and interacted with several of the student leaders extensively during the uprising. He raises serious questions about how the students were able to conduct themsleves as freely as they did at Tiananmen Square for as long as they did (several weeks) without some level of support within the upper reaches of party circles.

***The Man on Mao's Right: From Harvard Yard to Tiananmen Square,My Life inside China's Foreign Ministry by Ji Chaozhu

Ji Chaozhu , who grew up in the U.S. after his family left China in the 1930s, returned to China as an adult and worked his way from serving as Chou En Lai's interpreter to serving as an ambassador. He was retired by the time of the Tiananmen Square uprising ,but witnessed some of it and at the time pondered whether it might have been an omen of another Cultural Revolution to come--- which did not take place after Tiananmen.

(3) mininum wage decrease in Colorado first decrease since 1938

While it does not impact a majority of workers and may only come to a loss of less than $100 a year for the workers it does impact, the decrease in the minimum wage seems another step in the race to the bottom economically. It lowers the economic floor for entry level and unskilled jobs which could ultimately have an impact on the wages all workers can expect.

Effective Jan 1,2010 the minimum wage goes down from $7.28 an hour to $7.24 an hour.
$7.24 an hour times 40 hours a week equals $289.69 a week. If paid weekly we can multiply by 4.33 (which takes into account the occasional 5th pay) to get monthly gross $1,253.97 which translates to $15,047.62 annual gross income. This is about $500 above the 2009 poverty income guidelines for two people of $14,570. This is awful close to the economic edge if you are a single parent or a couple in which one person can not find work or is not able to work ,but can't get disability payments.
I understand the minimum wage in Colorado is linked to the inflation rate,but at $7.28 an hour a household was not exactly living with much of a cushion to absorb a medical catastrophe or a cold spell in the winter that drives up the need for heat or a hot spell in the summer that may create a situation in which air conditioning is not a convenience,but a life-saver.

This is a link to the Colorado State Labor Department:

http://www.coworkforce.com/lab/wage.asp

Here is a link to the 2009 poverty guidelines from the US Health & Human Services administration:

http://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty/09poverty.shtml

(4) No Cost Of Living Adjustment for Social Security recipients for first time since1975.

The lack of a Soc Sec COLA is also linked to the economy as consumer prices have dropped, particularly energy expenses. The AARP notes that ,although overall consumer expenses have decreased, medical related expenses which may disproportionately impact Soc Sec recipients have continued to increase at a rate well above the inflation rate.

The AARP points out that the average Soc Sec monthly check is $1,094.

Here is the press release from Soc Sec about this:

http://www.ssa.gov/pressoffice/pr/2010cola-pr.htm

Here is an article from AARP about how no COLA may impact seniors:

http://bulletin.aarp.org/states/mt/2009/41/articles/social_security_pay_freeze_worries_seniors.html

Influence of Wilmington Rep Districts in the 2010 Democratic Statewide primary may depend on low turnout statewide and local primaries

2009-11-20T17:44:00.000-08:00

Four state representative districts have Democratic legislators who reside in the City of Wilmington. They are rep districts 1-4. A substantial portion of each of these districts is within the city borders. For the purposes of this discussion they will be viewed as Wilmington districts with the realization that they may contain election districts outside the city limits.

The 13th and 16th representative districts have small portions of the city, an election district each.They will not be considered here ,since the impact is so small.In the 2008 city council president's race 9,601 votes were cast citywide. Only 280 of these votes were in the 13th & 16th which are represented by suburban residents and whose districts are geographically primarily suburban districts.

Here is the breakdown of the current Democratic registration of rep districts 1-4 & the state:

1st Rep district --10,000 (3.5% of statewide Democrats)

2nd Rep Distritct-9,251 (3.2% of statewide Democrats)

3rd Rep District--8,959 (3.1% of statewide Democrats)

4th Rep District--7,728 (2.7% of statewide Democrats)

1st-4th RepDists--35,938 (12.6% of statewide Democrats)

Statewide-------286,282

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

Below is the impact of the city districts on some statewide Democratic primaries since the current district boundaries came into existence in 2002. I intentionally did not choose the 2008 primary for Governor between Jack Markell & John Carney because that drew several thousand people who did not vote in the Insurance Commissioner's race or US Rep race. These voters are not as likely to vote in an off-year election without a marquee matchup (two opponents each of whom has a substantial treasury and/or long standing name recognition in a major race). I liken these voters to people who follow baseball only during the World Series or football only during the Superbowl.

2008 Insurance Commissioner's Race-66,062 votes cast statewide
1st Rep District--3,249 (4.9% of votes cast)
2ndRep District-2,149 (3.3% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,725 (2.6% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-2,451 (3.7% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-9,574 (14.5% of votes cast)

2006 US Representative Race-15,768
1st Rep District-1,537 (9.7% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-773 (4.9% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-869 (5.5% of votes cast
4th Rep District-1344 (8.5% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4523 (28.6% of votes cast)

2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-31,799
1st Rep District-2,232 (7.0% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,638 (5.2% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,389 (4.4% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-1,667 (5.2% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-6926 (21.8% of votes cast)

2002 US Representative Race-17,223
1st Rep District-1,735 (10.1% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,292 (7.5% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-773 (4.5% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-848 (4.9 % of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4638 (27.0% of votes cast)

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

When statewide turnout was higher in 2004 & 2008, the city amounted to less of a percentage of the statewide total. When turnout was less in 2002 & 2006 the city's impact was several percentage points higher.

One reason is that city residents are much more used to voting in primaries and that in some districts the Democratic primary is, in effect , the election because the Democratic registration edge over the Republican is so overwhelming (more than 7-1 in 1st , 2nd & 3rd Rep Districts) , that in the general election the Democratic candidate runs unopposed or against minimal opposition.

The existence of local primaries may also drive up particpation in the statewide primaries in the city.Some people may come out to vote in the local primary and vote for the statewide races as well, is one possibility.

In 2006 there were 3 Democratic State Rep primaries not in the city of Wilmington, but all four state rep districts represented by a city resident had a primary. In each of the state rep primaries more people voted than in the US Rep primary: 1795 in the 1st, 815 in the 2nd, 1,013 in the 3rd and 1486 in the 4th.

In 2002 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Rep Districts each had a primary for state rep and each of these also had more votes cast than in the US Rep race. In the 4th Rep District in 2002 there was no local state rep primary and the turnout of 848 was significantly less than the 1344 who voted in the US Rep race in 2006 when there was hotly contested 3 way state rep race that included 2 sitting city council members, Gerald Brady ,who won, and Loretta Walsh.

It is early to gauge what turnout will be in 2010,but I would assume it would be closer to the 2002 & 2006 numbers than the 2004 & 2008 numbers. Even with multiple statewide primaries, it will be an off-year election. Unless there is a change in the makeup of the US Rep race or US Senate race which creates a situation in which two high profile ( in terms of cash, organization and/or name recognition) Democratic candidates go head-to-head, I don't expect turnout to be especially high statewide. This could mean the Wilmington districts could have an impact way beyond the 12.6% they represent of registered Democrats.

A campaign finance comparison in the GOP Senate race

2009-11-14T10:52:00.000-08:00

Most candidates would prefer Mike Castle's decades of wins (& name recognition) and a six figure bankroll to Christine O'Donnell's 2 prior losses and $24,000 in debt with less than $2500 on hand. I don't know if Christine O'Donnell considers herself an underdog,but the campaign finance reports reflect that possibility.

Looking at the numbers for cash raised, I was surprised to see that what is available as documented on the OpenSecrets website has Castle only out fund-raising O’Donnell a little better than 2-1 . This appears to be for the period since the 2008 election.

The cash on hand line of the raised and spent report below shows the financial disadvantage O’Donnell faces. Castle had $852,689 on hand when last reported ( the date is not supplied on OpenSecrets.Org,but the figures appear to match the 9-30-2009 filing Castle’s campaign did with the FEC) and O’Donnell had $2,462 on hand as of 3-31-2009. Possibly as telling for campaign stability is that Castle has zero debt and O’Donnell’s most recent report showed $24,298 in debt.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN 2010:
Select an election cycle:
Race All Candidates AmountRaised
Senate Michael N. Castle (R) $257,619
Christine O'Donnell (R) $123,686

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=DE

Total Raised and Spent
Michael N. Castle (R)
Raised: $257,619
Spent: $267,674
Cash on Hand: $852,689
Last Report: Not available

PAC contributions $234,250 (91%)
Individual contributions $18,554 (7%)
Candidate self-financing $0 (0%)
Other $4,815 (2%)

Christine O'Donnell (R)
Raised: $123,686
Spent: $120,964
Cash on Hand: $2,462
Last Report: March 31, 2009

PAC contributions $1,750 (1%)
Individual contributions $108,015 (87%)
Candidate self-financing $716 (1%)
Other $13,205 (11%)

NOTE: All the numbers on this page are for the 2009 - 2010 House election cycle and based on Federal Election Commission data available electronically on Tuesday, November 10, 2009.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=DES2&cycle=2010

For 6-30-2009 and 9-30-2009 the FEC report indicates failure to file for O’Donnell.

The 3-31-2009 quarterly report filed 4/15/2009 also showed O’Donnell’s campaign to be over $24,000 in debt. While debt can sometimes reflect money a candidate had loaned his/her campaign in this case much of it appears to be vendors . Some of these examples are $4,018 to Airport Business Center for rent, $3,275 to Get Kinetic for a video shoot and $5,275.91 Koch & Hoos ,LLC for accounting services. Logistically, I would think this kind of debt is more problematic than candidate loans, since it is possible these vendors may withhold future service or the outstanding debt may make it more difficult to transact business with other vendors who may have concerns about repayment.

Here is the link to the 3-31-2009 report:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00449595

The loans are reported on pages 23-27 of a 30 pages PDF.

Here is the link to the report for Castle's House campaign for the period ending 9-30-2009. The only filing for his Senate campaign is the filing of candidacy in Oct 2009

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00254938

Here is the link to the FEC homepage,if you want to research deeper:

http://www.fec.gov/

I was unable to locate O'Donnell's 2010 campaign website and attempts to access her 2008 website took me to Yahoo search.

Here is Castle's campaign website:

http://www.castlecampaign.org/

History may have been kinder to Jefferson & Jackson than Delaware was

2009-10-27T17:42:00.000-07:00

The Delaware State Democratic Committee is proud to have Bill Clinton as their speaker at the annual Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner on Nov 10th. Their website indicates the event is sold out:

http://www.deldems.org/

I thought this might be a time to research how Delaware treated Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson when they were on the ballot. It looks like Delaware was a disappointment to both of them

Thomas Jefferson was elected president twice and vice-president once. He was on the presidential ballot four times:
1792 ,1796,1800 and 1804. Over those four elections he received no electoral votes from Delaware . In 1800 the electoral college balloting ended in a tie between Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
The decision of who would be president was settled in the US House of Representatives. There were 16 states at the time. Jefferson won the votes of 10 states, Burr won four states and two states abstained. Delaware was one of the abstaining states.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1789_1821.html#1804

Andrew Jackson was on the presidential ballot in 1824,1828 and 1832.He won the presidency in 1828 and 1832 after losing to John Quincy Adams in 1924. He did not receive any electoral votes during any of these elections.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1821_1837.html#1824

These are not the only presidents of note to be slighted by Delaware's electors.
Abraham Lincoln did not get any Delaware electoral votes in either of his presidential victories in 1860 or 1865.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1853_1869.html#1860

At least when it comes to the 1800s we can not say "so went Delaware, so went the nation".

For more on the presidential election of 1800 see:
"Adams Vs. Jefferson, The Tumultuos Election of 1800" by John Ferling

A Pattern That May Impact the Delaware House of Representatives in 2010,maybe not

2009-10-24T04:32:00.000-07:00

A lot has been written about how in the off year election after a newly elected president has taken office that president's party often loses seats in Congress. Does it apply to the Delaware House of Representatives as well? A review of the elections since 1964 would say it might .

It happened in 1966 -2 years after Democrat Lyndon Johnson became President as Democrats lost 18 seats in the House:

1964 30 Democrats, 5 Republicans
1966 12 Democrats, 23 Republicans

It happened in 1970 -2 years after Republican Richard Nixon won the presidency as Republicans lost 3 seats in the House:

1968 13 Democrats, 26 Republicans

1970 16 Democrats, 23Republicans

[In November 1974 ,two months after Nixon resigned, the Democrats took a 25-16 majority in the Delaware House of Representatives, for a turnaround of 12 seats within 3 election cycles.]

It happended in 1978 -2 years after Democrat Jimmy Carter won the presidency as Democrats lost 5 seats in the House:

1976 26 Democrats, 15 Republicans

1978 21 Democrats, 20 Republicans

It happened in 1982 -2 years after Republican Ronald Reagan beat Carter as Republicans lost 9 seats in the House:

1980 16 Democrats, 25Republicans

1982 25Democrats, 16Republicans

It did not happen in 1990- 2 years after Republican George HW Bush was elected president and the Republicans gained an additional seat in the State House

1988 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1990 17 Democrats, 24 Republicans

It happened in 1994 -2 years after Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency as Democrats lost 4 seats in the House:

1992 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1994 14 Democrats, 27 Republicans

In 2002, 2 years after George W Bush was elected president, it did not happen, as Republicans picked up an additional 3 seats in the House.

I think this may have had less to do with the Bush presidency than the fact Republican party held a majority in the Delaware House of Representatives and was able to write the district lines during reapportionment which took place between the 2000 and 2002 elections. Four Democrat incumbents (Dave Brady, Rich DiLiberto ,Shirley Price and John Schroeder) found themselves with district lines that made re-election an impossibility in 2002.

2000 15 Democrats, 26 Republicans

2002 12 Democrats, 29 Republicans

Admittedly, issues other than who is currently in the White House affect who is elected as a State Representative in the Delaware House of Representatives, but I found it interesting that this pattern holds up in 5 of the last 7 presidencies. I don't know if it possible to establish cause and effect in this case or whether this pattern is likely to continue.

2000 & 2002 results are from the Elections Archive section of the State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Prior results are from Table 3, pp 470-488 from Only in Delaware, Celia Cohen, who references the Delaware State Election Commissioner's Office. I assumed she used paper sources at the Dover office.
Unfortunately, on the Commissioner's website elections from 1954-1968 are not currently available.

Two local races seem to have made an impact on statewide turnout in the 2006 GOP primary and one appears not to have impacted statewide turnout

2009-10-16T18:43:00.000-07:00

Statewide Republican turnout was 8% in the 2006 US Senate primary,but two areas with higher turnout each had a state representative district race to fill a vacancy created by the retiring of an incumbent Republican state representative. These two races appeared to have impacted turnout in the US Senate race since the turnout in the 20th & 33rd districts for the US Senate primary was 856 and 944, respectively. No other district of the remaining 39 districts had a voter turnout higher than 695.

In the 20th Rep District in New Castle County between Newark and Wilmington , 976 people voted in the Representative primary in which Nick Manolakos beat Brian Moore 520 to 356. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5,885 registered Republicans in the 20th,making turnout for that race 16.6% ,over twice the statewide turnout.

Even more telling is that only 856 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 120 fewer than the local race, implying the local race is what brought people out to vote.The 20th Rep District made up only 3.3% of the 178,366 Registered Repubicans ,but made up 6.0 % of the 14,386 Republicans who voted in the US Senate primary.

In the 33rd Rep District 967 people voted in the Representative primary in which Ulysses S Grant beat Harold Peterman 496 to 471. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5080 registered Republicans in the 33rd Rep District which has election districts in both Kent & Sussex Counties. Turnout in this state rep race was 19.0%, almost 2 and a half times the statewide average.

944 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 23 fewer than voted in the State Rep primary. The 33rd Rep District made up 2.8% of the Registered Republicans statewide, but made up 6.6% of the Republicans who voted in the US Senate Primary.

An interesting contrast is the only other Republican state legislative primary in 2006 which took place in the 14th State Senate District in which John Feroce beat Barbara Allsopp 354-323. This district is near the C&D canal and has election districts in New Castle and Kent Counties.They both were on the November ballot with Feroce as the Republican nominee and Allsopp as the Independent Party of Delaware nominee . Incumbent Democratic State Senator James Vaughn defeated both of them with 59.1% of the vote in the general election.

The Sept 2006 primary only got 677 of the state senate district’s 9557 registered Republicans out to vote or 7.1% turnout, less than the statewide average despite there being both the US Senate race and the state senate race.

The numbers tell what happened,but the question is why. The 20th & 33rd had been represented by a Republican representative prior to 2006.The 20th would continue to be represented by a Republican after Manolakos’ victory over Democrat Richard Korn in November 2006. In the 33rd Grant lost to Democrat Bob Walls,but only by 81 votes-less than a percentage point. I think the Republicans in September in these two districts were more motivated to come out because there was a greater likelihood of success in November.

In the 14th State senate District, they faced a long-time Democrat incumbent and a Democrat registration advantage of 13,527 to 9,557. The Republicans may have had less of a vested interest in voting in the September primary because they had less faith in the outcome in November General election and with good reason.

Registration figures for Sept 2006

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2006/09_06_rep.shtml

Election results for Sept 2006

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary_edrd.shtml

2006 US Senate Republican Primary results by Representative District-Some Context for the last post and the next post

2009-10-13T18:56:00.000-07:00

District----Total---O'Donnell---Protack---Ting
1st----------128 -----36---------46--------46
2nd----------52-------19---------22--------11
3rd----------42-------17----------11--------14
4th----------558------89---------115-------354
5th----------91-------22----------42-------27
6th----------456-----83---------183-------190
7th----------608-----90---------218-------300
8th----------356-----59---------162-------133
9th----------338-----52---------163-------122
10th---------489-----81---------191-------217
11th---------672-----106--------233-------333
12th---------660-----71---------241-------348
13th---------149-----43---------39---------67
14th---------686------86---------219-------381
15th---------202-----36---------103--------63
16th---------49------12---------27---------10
17th---------188-----38---------67---------83
18th---------167-----48---------92---------27
19th---------248-----54---------128--------66
20th---------856-----163--------369--------324(also had a State Rep Primary)
21st---------363-----50---------169-------144
22nd---------480-----71---------221-------188
23rd---------297-----48---------115-------134
24th---------123-----36----------46--------41
25th---------178-----38----------61--------79
26th---------123-----32----------52--------39
27th---------183-----44----------85--------54
28th---------235-----48---------107-------80
29th---------320-----55---------142-------123
30th---------404-----104--------201-------99
31st---------262------39---------114-------109
32nd---------246-----34---------117--------95
33rd---------944-----232--------426--------286(also had State Rep primary)
34th---------410 -----61---------191--------158
35th---------301-----128---------137-------119
36th---------367-----46----------165-------156
37th---------469-----39----------150-------280
38th---------695-----109---------268------318
39th---------336-----47----------99--------190
40th---------220-----50----------78--------92
41st---------435------72---------153-------210
Total-----14,386-----2,505-------5,771-----6,110

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary/elect06_edrd.shtml

A Look at the 2006 GOP US Senate Primary in Delaware

2009-10-13T16:38:00.000-07:00

My original idea was to look at how each of the three Republican US Senate candidates did by Representative District in 2006. My assumption was if Christine O'Donnell stays in the Senate primary in 2010 and squares off against Mike Castle, her only chance is to win decisively in districts where she did well against Jan Ting,who was the organization endorsed candidate in 2006, and to lose close to Castle in districts she lost to Ting.Some on the right may feel she would get the lion's share of Mike Protack's votes and that is possible,but it is also possible several hundred of Protack's voters may not have even voted if he were not on the ballot.

One theory I have read is she would pull strongly from downstate Republicans on the assumption that they may be more conservative than their counterparts in New Castle County. After looking at the numbers I am wondering if downstate Republicans as a group are not being misrepresented by a vocal conservative minority.

Jan Ting got more votes than Protack and O'Donnell combined (190 for Ting and 146 for his two opponents)in the 39th District which encompasses Seaford and Blades in Western Sussex County. In the 41st District which includes Millsboro, Gumboro and Frankford in Southern Sussex County, Ting received 210 votes while Protack and O'Donnell combined received 223. In the 37th which includes Georgetown and Lewes, Ting received 280 votes and his opponents combined total was 189.

While Ting lost several districts to Protack in Kent and Sussex, O'Donnell did not win any and only outpaced Ting in the 35th (Bridgeville-Greenwood) by 128-119 with Protack getting 137 and the 30th (milford-Harrington-Felton) by 104-99 with Protack winning with 201.

An interesting situation arose in several districts with overwhelming Democratic registration majorities. O'Donnell beat Ting in the 2nd, 3rd, 16th & 18th Representative Districts. Unfortunately for her, these four districts only combined for 310 votes cast out of 14,386 cast statewide.

Ting received over 310 votes in 5 rep districts where Republicans come out in larger numbers (the 4th -West Wilmington, the 11th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred the 20th along Kirkwood Highway and the 38th in Sussex County (Millville-Bethany Beach-Fenwick-Selbyville).

For O'Donnell to have shot against Castle if she pursues a primary against him, she would need to beat Castle in some of the areas where Ting beat her because the areas in which she beat Ting do not supply enough votes. I am assuming Castle runs stronger than Ting,based on his prior election success and larger campaign treasury, in the places he needs votes like Brandywine Hundred and Western & Southern Sussex.

Some of the areas where she ran close to Ting in New Castle County ( the 24th -Eastern Newark, the 5th ,26th& 27th in Bear-Glasgow, and the 13th & 19th along Kirkwood Highway) do not supply enough votes in a Republican statewide primary ( if 2006 is at all representative) to give her the votes for an upset.

In Memory of My Favorite Republican

2009-10-07T17:11:00.000-07:00

I have been involved in Delaware Democratic Party politics since the 1970s and am currently married to an elected official who is a member of the Democratic Party,but I am not one who is unwilling to concede there may some good people on the other side of the ballot from time to time.

During the Senate Watergate hearings in the 1970s I admired the tough questioning by then-Republican US Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut. Locally, I admired the work State Sen.Andy Knox did on the Coastal Zone Act and State Sen. Dan Weiss did in raising the concerns of migrant farm workers in the 1970s. But if all is politics is local, it does not get more local than the dinner table and I shared one with my favorite Republican, Zelda M "Peg" Tobin, my mother who died 9-27-2009.

She grew up in a Republican family in Western Sussex where her father, Harry Speicher, was politically active for decades in Republican politics and her youngest brother David "Everett" Speicher served one term as a Republican state representative in the 1950s .Her natural interests lay outside politics. She loved music, playing the accordion and piano by ear, and worked as a registered nurse for over four decades. She was not predisposed to participate in partisan politics beyond voting.

I think she could be described as an "Eisenhower Republican", moderate on social issues and not opposed to supporting needed infrastructure like schools and highways, but she was no free-wheeling liberal when it came to public spending. In the weeks before she died , she repeatedly asked how President Obama could expect to pay for the expansion of health care. My recollection is she did not wish the US to seek foreign entanglements whether LBJ's War in Vietnam or George W Bush's Iraq War, although she believed in enough military to keep us safe and had married a World War II veteran.

At one point I probably wanted us to embrace my political philosophy,but now see that her tolerance of my political activity might have been the embrace I did not realize I had gotten.

During the 1972 election I volunteered in Sussex County for the McGovern for President campaign and the initial senatorial campaign for Joe Biden. The McGovern campaign in Sussex County did not have phone banks. It had volunteers who made calls from their homes. While my mother did not especially like politics and I doubt she voted for McGovern, she did not stand in the way when I turned our kitchen into a one person phone bank for a couple hours a night 3-4 nights a week for 6-8 weeks in the fall of 1972.

In a community that was still majorly impacted by the agricultural economy and was not particularly sympathetic to labor unions, she did not dissuade me from leafleting for the United Farm Workers Lettuce boycott .

As I continued my involvement in the Young Democrats, in student government at the University of Delaware and partisan election campaigns, she would occasionally remind me her impression that "politics is a dirty business" , but she always saved newspaper clippings of the times my political activity made the newspaper.

Looking back the embrace would not be for my politics,but for me doing something that was important to me and getting some occasional notoriety for it --even though politics was probably something she might have wished I had not invested my energy in so deeply.

Thanks , Mom.

Not all the growth in Shore Rep Districts is in the Election Districts near the shore

2009-09-26T12:26:00.000-07:00

I recently stated I thought the shore area districts might get additional representation if registration trends matched population growth in the 2010 census. While this is still possible it may be because areas adjacent to the shore election districts are expanding. It is possible that some areas at the shore have reached the maximum saturation point for habitation and for more people to be in Eastern Sussex County they have to move inland,but as near to the shore as they can get which explains relative stagnation in Western Sussex and growth in registration numbers in the election districts in Eastern Sussex adjacent to beach election districts and a diminishment of relative registration percentages in the shore areas.

In the 37th Rep District the 1st and 2nd Election Districts are in Lewes in close proximity of the shore. All other polling places are several miles inland. In 2002 these two election districts made up 41.1% of total district registration when the total was 11,741. In 2009 these two districts make up 39.7% of the total registration when the total registration as of 9-1-2009 was 13,868.

2009-01 OF 37- 944 Dems- 925Rep- 534Others-Total 2,403 (17.3% of rep district registration)

2002-01-of 37th-880Dems-1,069Rep-496 Other-Total-2,445 (20.8% of rep district registration)

2009-02 OF 37 -1,228 Dems- 1,176Rep- 707Others-Total 3,111
(22.4% of rep district registration)

2002-02 OF 37-876 Dems-950Reps----559 Others-Total 2,385 (20.3% of rep district registration)

In the 38th Rep District Election Districts 4,5& 6 are along the coast from Fenwick Island to Bethany Beach. The other Election Districts are inland from Millville to Dagsboro,Roxana and Selbyville. Total registration was 15,901 in 2002 and 18,660 as of 9-1-2009 .The three shore districts made up 36.6 % of total district registration in 2002 and 34.0% of registration within the 38th in 2009.

2009-04 OF 38-- 770Dems- 996Reps-- 440-Others- 2,206Total (11.8% of rep district registration)

2002-04 of 38-- 742Dems-1,050 Reps--424 Others- 2,216 Total (13.9% of rep district registration)

2009-05 OF 38-- 553Dems- 685Reps-- 328Others-- 1,566 Total (8.4% of rep district registration)

2002-05 of 38- 586Dems-794 Reps--318 Others--1,698 Total (10.7% of rep district registration)

2009-06 OF 38-- 1,032Dems-- 1,092Reps-- 457Others-- 2,581Total (13.8 % of rep district registration)
2002-06 of 38--877 Dems--743Reps--293Others--- 1,913 Total (12.0 % of rep district registration)

It could be that as long time residents sell their property or estates are settled the new owners are not full-time residents,so do not register in Sussex County. Real estate is a possible factor.
Whatever the reason or reasons it is noteworthy that the 37th & 38th representative districts each grew by more than 2,000 additional registered voters between 2002 and 2009,but the 1st of the 37th, the 4th of the 38th and the 5th of the 38th each had declines in voter registration.

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agp2002.shtml#37

Possible implications for the 2012 reapportionment if the voter numbers in the last post reflect population numbers

2009-09-19T16:44:00.000-07:00

The last post gave more details about where voter registration figures have increased dramatically, the shore area in Eastern Sussex County and the MOT-Smyrna area. The Bear-Glasgow area in New Castle County and Kent County between Milford and Smyrna showed some growth,but less dramatic. The other six areas showed stagnation in relative voter numbers ( an area's percentage of the statewide registration total). In the zero sum game of reapportionment, an area's numbers only matter in relation to other areas. If the shore or MOT pick up an additional legislative seat, it has to come from somewhere.

I would say for House Democrats the shore area is more of a problem.For MOT to get additional representation , Newark-Bear-Glasgow districts could be extended southward. This happened in 2002 when the 10th State Senate District which had been mostly in Newark moved much of the district below the C&D canal while maintaining enough territory in Newark for incumbent State Senator Steve Amick,who is from Newark, to retain his seat through two elections.In 2008 Amick retired and the seat was filled by Rep Bethany Hall-Long,who had represented the MOT area since 2002.

To add an additional seat at the shore it has to come from somewhere and it is possible it could come from New Castle County which may have several areas with stagnant growth, if registration figures mirror population trends at all. It is not necessarily a given that any incumbents will be redistricted out of a viable re-election bid,but in each of the last three reapportionments at least one incumbent in the House was not serving in the next legislative session with reapportionment as a possible factor.

In 1982 6th Representative District incumbent Tom Brady and 4th Representative District incumbent Kevin Free, both Republicans, were both placed in the newly reconfigured 4th Representative District as the designation of 6th Rep District moved from the City of Wilmington to the Penny Hill area along Philadelphia Pike. Brady retired and a primary was avoided. Free went on to represent the newly configured 4th Rep District .

In 1992 Roarke Moore, D-2nd Rep District lost the seat he won in 1990 to the man he had beaten, Rep Al O Plant, in the Democratic primary. Moore had beaten Plant by only 35 votes in 1990,so I am not sure how much redistricting had to do with the change. 1992 had a heated mayoral primary in Wilmington between Dan Frawley & Jim Sills and this may have had as much impact on turnout in the district as the change in boundary lines. 2249 voters cast ballots in the 1992 rematch . Only 1187 voted in this race in 1990 . It is possible that the mayor's race may have brought out more voters who would vote for Plant, who did not make it to the polls in the 1990 off year primary.

In 2002 Democrats Hazel Plant, 2nd Rep District , and Arthur Scott, 3rd Rep District, faced off in a primary which Plant won to represent the newly configured 2nd representative district in which they both lived. Sussex County Democratic Representatives Shirley Price and John Schroeder each lost re-election bids to Republicans in the General election after district lines were redrawn. Democrat Rep Rick DiLiberto saw his 14th representative district designation go to the Rehoboth area with his old district split among adjacent districts . He chose to run for state senate instead and lost in a bid to unseat Republican Liane Sorenson. Democrat Dave Brady's 8th district in Brandywine Hundred was split between adjacent districts and the 8th district designation went to the MOT area.His home election district was placed in the 7th Rep District along with Republican Majority Leader Wayne Smith ,who beat Brady in the 2002 general election.

The map will constrain the stretching of geography for many districts as adjacent state borders to the west statewide, to the north in New Castle County and to the south in Sussex County limit movement of boundary lines. Districts throughout the state along the coast and the Delaware River are inhibited from moving eastward. The less stretching of current districts that is possible will have a direct impact on how many new districts are lost when new districts are created, if census data supports such a change.
As always, political will is going to be a major factor and the election of 2010 will impact who is around in 2012 to exert political will.

Some additional hints at what areas may be impacted by reapportionment in 2012

2009-09-15T17:30:00.000-07:00

While reapportionment is based on population figures and not voter registration figures, voter registration figures may give us an indication of what areas may gain and lose in the 2012 reapportionment which follows the 2010 census. I have broken up the state's 41 representative districts into ten areas comprised of districts that are adjacent to each other and share a geographic identifying factor ( for example, districts 1-4 are represented by city of Wilmington residents. Although large portions of some of these four district are outside the city, they each have enough city residents to make a city resident a viable candidate.) Some of the groupings may seem arbitrary,but this is designed to be the beginning of a discussion,not the culmination of a discussion and without beginning discussing geography -reapportionment can not be discussed.

I have provided 2002 & 2009 voter registration comparisons for each of the 41 rep districts. If a reader wishes to review maps at the Election Commissioner's website and come up with some different configurations of area groupings , that is great for continuing a discussion in which the final decision will impact Delaware's future for at the least the period 2012 to 2022.

What I have done for each representative district and grouping of districts is tell what proportion of the statewide voter registration each represented in 2002, the last time districts were reapportioned, and registration eff 9-1-2009.

2002 Statewide registration 519,816
2009 Statewide registration 606,433

Districts represented by a city resident
1st Rep district- 2002 -2.4% of statewide registration (12,247 voters)

1st Rep district- 2009- 2.3% of statewide registration (13,693 voters)

2nd Rep district-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,388 voters)

2nd Rep district-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,797 voters

3rd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (11,172 voters)

3rd Rep District-2009-2.0% of statewide registration (12,399 voters)

4th Rep District-2002-3.1% of statewide registration (16,152 voters)

4th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,131 voters)

This area--2002------9.6% of statewide registration

This area--2009------9.1% of statewide registration

Bear-Glasgow Area

5th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (11,942 voters)

5th Rep District-2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,801 voters)

15th Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,739 voters)

15th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (18,918 voters)

26th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,235 voters)

26th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,521 voters)

27th Rep District-2002-2.5%of statewide registration (12,731 voters)

27th Rep District-2009-2.4% of statewide registration (14,624 voters)

This area--2002------9.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-----10.1% of statewide registration

Brandywine Hundred
6th Rep District-2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,376 voters)

6th Rep District-2009--2.7% of statewide registration (16,643 voters)

7th Rep District-2002--2.9% of statewide registration (14,849 voters)

7th Rep District-2009--2.5% of statewide registration (14,974 voteres)

10th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,468 voters)

10th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,237 voters)

11th Rep District 2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,409 voters)

11th Rep District 2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,677 voters)

12th Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,545 voters)

12th Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (15,306 voters)

This area--2002-------14.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-------13.0% of statewide registration

Middletown-Odessa-Townsend & Smyrna
8th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (12,010 voters)

8th Rep District-2009--3.3% of statewide registration (19,758 voters)

9th Rep District-2002--2.6% of statewide registration (13,389)

9th Rep District-2009--3.2% of statewide registration (19,365)

28th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,670)

28th Rep district 2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,174)

29th Rep District-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,606)

29th Rep District-2009-2.8% of statewide registration (16,955)

This area---2002------9.0% of statewide registration

This area---2009------11.6% of statewide registration

Pike Creek-Kirkwood Highway Corridor between Newark & Wilmington
13th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,880)

13th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,132)

19th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,526)

19th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,095)

20th Rep District-2002-2.9% of statewide registration (15,083)

20th Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,500)

21st Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,561)

21st Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,975)

22nd Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,626)

22nd Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,986)

This area -2002-13.2% of statewide registration

This area-2009-12.0% of statewide registration

New Castle -Christiana
16th Rep District--2002--2.2% of statewide registration (11,380 voters)

16th Rep District--2009--2.2% of statewide registration (13,165voters)

17th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,532 voters)

17th Rep District--2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,877 voters)

18th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,504 voters)

18th Rep District--2002--2.1% of statewide registration (12,516 voters)

This area----------2002--7.0% of statewide registration

This area----------2009--6.6% of statewide registration

Newark
23rd Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,759)

23rd Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,950)

24th Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,204)

24th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,673)

25th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,336)

25th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,486)

This area--2002-------6.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-------6.1% of statewide registration

Eastern Sussex County-Milford to the Shore

14th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,837 voters)

14th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (19,472)

36th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration( 12,531)

36th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,622)

37th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,742)

37th Rep District 2009-2.3% of statewide registration ( 13,868)

38th Rep District -2002-3.1% of statewide registration (15,901)

38th Rep District-2009-3.1% of statewide registration ( 18,660)

This area-2002---10.8% of statewide registration

This area-2009--11.3% of statewide registration

Kent County between Milford and Smyrna
30th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,695)

30th Rep District-2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,155)

31st Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,352)

31st Rep District 2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,869)

32nd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,677)

32nd Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,713)

33rd Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,572)

33rd Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,862)

34th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,796)

34th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,173)

This area -2002-11.1% of statewide registration

This area -2009-11.6% of statewide registration

Western & Southern Sussex County

35th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,183)

35th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,887)

39th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide regsitration (10,496)

39th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,464)

40th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,831)

40th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,603)

41st Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,884)

41st Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,757)

This area-2002--8.8% of statewide registration

This area-2009--8.8% of statewide registration

The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.

For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.

For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.

http://elections.delaware.gov/

The turnout estimate of 25% was low,but the turnout pattern continues

2009-09-12T18:48:00.000-07:00

There were 13,868 registered voters in the 37th Rep District as of 9-1-2009.

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

The unofficial vote total as of 8:42 pm on September 12,2009 is 4534.

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

Unofficial turnout reflects a 32.7% turnout which is above the 23-27% I predicted, but continues the pattern of legislative special elections held 80 days before or after June 30th having a turnout of at least 25%.

This pattern has applied to ten out of eleven state legislative special elections held since 1997 that I have reviewed.

Today's special election in the 37th Rep District had a similar result as 2002 general election

2009-09-12T18:26:00.000-07:00

I found it interesting at how closely the results by election district in the 9-12-2009 37th Rep District special election mirrored the 2002 general election.

Democrat Robinson won the 1st and 2nd election districts in the 37th today , just as Democrat John Schroeder had in 2002. Schroeder was the last Democrat to come close to winning this seat,losing by less than a percentage point to Joe Booth. In 2004 Booth beat Nicholas Mirro 73% to 27%. Booth was unopposed in 2006 and beat Helen Truitt in 2008 by a margin of 64%-36%

Republican Ruth Briggs King won election districts 4-8 as had Republican Joe Booth.

Robinson lost the 3rd by 97 votes and Schroeder won it by one vote,but otherwise it was close to the overall result with Robinson losing closer in Georgetown where he lives and Schroeder,who was from Lewes, winning by a wider margin in Lewes than Robinson did .Schroeder’s wider margin in Lewes kept his race closer.
Booth beat Schroeder 50.3% to 49.7%.
Briggs King won 53.6% to 46.4%.

Sept 12, 2009
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37

----------------District Total ROBINSON R----- BRIGGS KING R

-----------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN

01-37 -----------------1034------ 600---------------- 434

02-37------------------ 998------ 509---------------- 489

03-37------------------ 493------ 198---------------- 295

04-37------------------ 178------- 68----------------- 110

05-37------------------ 512------ 171----------------- 341

06-37----------------- 900------ 405----------------- 495

07-37----------------- 315------- 112----------------- 203

08-37----------------- 104------- 42------------------- 62

RD Tot ---------------4534----- 2105---------------- 2429

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

2002
-----------------------DISTRICT TOTAL SCHROEDER------ BOOTH J W

-------------------------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN

01-37 -----------------------1440-------------- 978--------------- 462

02-37----------------------- 1317-------------- 845--------------- 472

03-37------------------------ 797-------------- 399--------------- 398

04-37------------------------ 246--------------- 94--------------- 152

05-37------------------------ 788-------------- 233--------------- 555

06-37----------------------- 1210-------------- 446--------------- 764

07-37----------------------- 507--------------- 166---------------- 341

08-37----------------------- 189---------------- 64----------------- 125

RD TOT------------------- 6494-------------- 3225---------------- 3269

CAND TOT 6494 3225 3269

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

About 25% turnout predicted in the 37th Rep District on 9-12-2009

2009-09-09T03:43:00.000-07:00

There are possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and a 3:30 pm football game at the University of Delaware,so people who want high turnout may have to get people out before the weather scares them away or the game pulls them away,but I think turnout will still be around the 25% it has been usually when a legislative special election is within 80 days of June 30th.
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.

Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html

Some More Perspective on the Last Post

2009-09-06T03:52:00.000-07:00

There are 41 Representative Districts in Delaware. If each were about equal in population and each had roughly equal voter registration percentages each district would account for 2.4% of the statewide registration total. All but one of the 6 districts mentioned in the last post exceeds this number.Their combined 17.9% exceeds the 14.4% they would account for if registration per representative district were roughly about equal.

If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.

Some Early Thoughts om Reapportionment.It's 3 years away,but this might be a trend

2009-09-05T17:12:00.001-07:00

The reapportionment of the Delaware General Assembly takes place every ten years after the census. The next US census is in 2010 and the next reapportionment will take place in 2012. It is very early to be too specific about what areas will get additional representation in the General Assembly due to an increase in their population in relation to other areas, but there appears to be a trend.

I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.

While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.

Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.

Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.

8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend

2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total

2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)

9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City

2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total

2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)

14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-

2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total

2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)

28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total

2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)

29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming

2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total

2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)

38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---

2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total

2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)

These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.

Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.

Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.

http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml

The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.

For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.

For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.

http://elections.delaware.gov/

A clarification on the 8-21-09 post and the 8-25-09 post

2009-08-29T23:29:00.000-07:00

In the 8-21-2009 post "New Castle County" is the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County within the boundaries of New Castle County and does not include the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
In the 8-25-2009 post "New Castle County" represents the entire New Castle County which includes the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County and the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
I do not think the 8-25-2009 information is broken down by political subdivision on the website.

Extended Incumbency and A bigger Warchest don't always mean a bigger victory margin, recent auditor races are proof

2009-08-27T08:32:00.000-07:00

Tom Wagner has been the Delaware State Auditor since then-Gov Mike Castle appointed him in 1989. He has won five statewide elections since that appointment. That an incumbent wins re-election may not be surprising.It might be unexpected that his victory margin would decrease as his length of service increased and he disproportionately increased the disparity between the size of his campaign war chest and his Democratic opponent,but that is what took place over his last three elections.

In 1998 he had been in office nine years. He beat Diane Kempski, the New Castle County Register in Chancery, 58% to 42%. He outpaced her in fundraising by $39,650.80 to $16,177.97.

In 2002 he defeated Bob Wasserbach 61.8% to 38.2%, but Wasserbach, who has never held elected office, did not form a committee until September after being appointed as the Democratic party nominee which each party can do if no candidate files prior to the filing deadline in July. Wagner , who had 13 years in office at the time, raised $43,330 to Wasserbach's $12,965 in contributions and $1000 campaign loan from the candidate. While Wagner started the year with over $3000 in the bank, Wasserbach first contribution over $100 came on 9-17-2002 which was less than two months before election day.

After serving 17 years as Auditor Tom Wagner faced off against Democrat Michael Dalto, who had also never held elected office and whose campaign did not begin until September of 2006. Dalto's campaign finance report has no contributions prior to September 2006. Wagner began 2006 with $89, 718.67 in the bank. Wagner went on to exceed Dalto's fundraising by to $104,808.67 to $1,445 or 72-1. Wagner won with 53.7% to 46.3%.

A win is a win for Wagner,but for Dalto to be outspent 72-1 by someone in office for 17 years and come within 3.8% of having a majority of votes may raise issues about whether Wagner could be vulnerable in 2010.

It won't guarantee the 2010 outcome,but as of 12-31-2008 Wagner had $33,682.87
in his campaign treasury.

Here are the numbers:
1998 election results
Diane Kempski (D)-73,475 votes-R. Thomas Wagner,Jr (R)-101,207
1998 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-98-----------------Kempski-$120.97------Wagner $1880.82
Raised 1-1-98 to 10-4-98 -----Kempski--$8300------ Wagner $22,170
Raised 10-5-98 to 10-26-98------Kempski-$7457-------Wagner $10,600
Raised 10-27-98 to election day-Kempski-$300--------Wagner $5000
Total raised prior to election -Kemspki-$16,177.97--Wagner-$39,650.82

2002 election results
Robert Wasserbach (D)-84,248 votes R Thomas Wagner ,Jr (R)-136,410
2002 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-02----------------Wasserbach-----zero---------Wagner $3,350
Raised 1-1-02 to 10-6-02-----Wasserbach-$6820----------Wagner $31,180
Wasserbach lent his campaign $1000
Raised 10-7-02 to 10-28-02--Wasserbach-$5,345---------Wagner $6,550
Raised 10-28-02 to election--Wasserbach- $800----------Wagner $2250
Total raised prior to election-Wasserbach-$12,965--------Wagner $43,330

2006 election results
Michael John Dalto (D)-113,475 votes R.Thomas Wagner,Jr (R) 131,592

2006 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-06------------------Dalto----------zero-------------Wagner $89,718.67
Raised 1-1-06 to 10-9-06------Dalto---------$1,225------------Wagner $11,690
(Dalto's report lists 9-1-06 as the start date and shows no money raised before 9-1-06)
Raised 10-10-06 to 10-30-06--Dalto----------$200------------Wagner $1,200
Raised 10-30-06 to election---Dalto----------zero--------------Wagner $2,200
Total raised prior to election--Dalto--------$1,425-------------Wagner--$104,808.67

For campaign finance reports:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

In New Castle County it's not just more people,it's increasing turnout percentages

2009-08-25T10:48:00.000-07:00

Tom Wagner is the only currently seated statewide elected official to have won an election and lost New Castle County in the last five election cycles. I thought I would look at how turnout has changed in New Castle County over the last three nonpresidential elections.

Below are the numbers from the New Castle County Board of Election website.

In 2006 all of the Republicans statewide except US Rep.Mike Castle lost New Castle County.Only Castle and Tom Wagner won statewide. The Republican candidates for US Senate,treasurer and attorney general lost.

In 2002 the entire slate except Castle and Tom Wagner lost New Castle County. Castle, Tom Wagner and attorney general Jane Brady were each re-elected,but the Republican US Senate candidate and treasusrer's candidate were each defeated statewide by at least 15 percentage points .

It does not look promising for the Republicans statewide in 2010 unless they can change the voting trend or win by close to a 2-1 margin in Kent & Sussex Counties which is roughly what Wagner did in 2006 .

***************************1998***********2002*************2006
Registered voters------------/307,802-------338,301----------353,834

People who voted------------/114,870-------146,907----------161,932

% of Registered voters voted/37.32%--------43.42%-----------45.76%

From:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006g/comparison.pdf

New Castle County Usually a Bellwhether in Statewide contests

2009-08-21T03:24:00.000-07:00

In the last post I mentioned how in the last four election cycles 55% plus of the statewide vote came out of suburban New Castle County. Since then I have looked to see how often statewide winners are able to carry the state,but lose in New Castle County. Since 2000 there have been 27 statewide races. Only two candidates, Republican Jane Brady , who in 2002 won in a 3 way race for Attorney General with Democrat Carl Schnee and Green Party candidate Vivian Houghton (whose 4.8% was higher than average 3rd party vote share) and Republican Tom Wagner, who won re-election as Auditor in 2006 over Democrat Michael Dalto, won statewide despite losing in suburban New Castle County.

The following won statewide and won New Castle county from 2000 to 2008:

3 Democratic presidential candidates: Barack Obama lost Sussex County. Al Gore and John Kerry each lost Kent and Sussex Counties

4 times the Democratic candidate for US Senate: In 2002 Joe Biden lost Kent County and in 2008 won Sussex County by only 272 votes when over 86, 000 votes were cast in Sussex County. Democrat Tom Carper won all subdivisions in 2006,but lost Kent and Sussex in 2000 when he upset Republican Bill Roth.

5 times the Republican Candidate for US House: Republican Mike Castle won in the City of Wilmington only once,getting 95 votes more than Democrat Mike Miller did in the city in 2002. This was the only Republican race between 2000 and 2008 in which the Republican got more Wilmington votes than the Democrat.

3 times the Democratic candidate for Governor: Ruth Ann Minner in 2000 and Jack Markell in 2008 each won all four subdivisions,but in 2004 Minner lost Kent and Sussex.

3 times the Democratic candidate for Lt Governor. John Carney in 2000 and 2004 and Matt Denn in 2008 each won all four subdivisions.

2 times the Democratic candidate for Treasurer-Jack Markell won all four subdivisions in 2002 and 2006.

For attorney general: in 2006 Democrat Beau Biden won despite losing Kent & Sussex Counties

In the 2002 Auditor's race Republican Tom Wagner won all subdivisions except the City of Wilmington. He received 61.8% overall in 2002.
In 2006 , the year he lost the City of Wilmington and New Castle County, he had 53.7% overall. His 65% victory in Kent & Sussex Counties allowed him to win,although by a 8.1% narrower margin than in 2002.

Each of the 3 Insurance Commissioner winners won New Castle County while losing at least one subdivision: Republican Donna Lee Williams lost the City of Wilmington in 2000,Democrat Matt Denn lost Kent & Sussex Counties in 2004 and Democrat Karen Weldin Stewart lost Sussex County in 2008.

Democrats ,winners and losers, can usually count on winning in Wilmington .
Kent & Sussex each backed the losing Republican 7 times in statewide raced in which Democrats won.
New Castle County supported the winner in all but two statewide contests of the last 27 held and one of those races had a third party candidate whose vote total of 13,860 exceeded the margin of victory which was only 6,871 votes. Since both of these offices will be on the ballot in 2010, it will be interesting to watch this trend.

All data is from the State Election Commissioner's website and the New Castle County Board of Elections' website.
A link is in the last post before this one.

Subdivision Relative Turnout Relatively stable over the last four election cycles

2009-08-18T18:07:00.000-07:00

I have read about the influx of people into Sussex County (transplants from upstate and out of state)in recent years and I began to wonder if Sussex County may have begun to contribute a higher percentage of statewide voter turnout in general elections in recent years.

The vote totals are up in Sussex County,but the number of actual votes cast in each of the other three political subdivisions (Kent County, New Castle County and the City of Wilmington) have also increased. This has created a situation where the relative turnout for each of the subdivisions is relatively stable in comparison to the others over the past few election cycles.

To minimize incumbency as an issue that could impact turnout, I looked at turnout in four open races in each of four recent election cycles and the pattern of relative turnout emerges with each subdivision contributing with no more than 3.0% points seperating its highest relative turnout from its lowest relative turnout. For 2002 I used the AGP report since the Delaware Election Commissioner's website did not break down election results by subdivsion in individual races for 2002.

2000 Presidential race-Total votes cast statewide327,529
City of Wilmington--------------25,374----7.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------187,821---57.3% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------48,247----14.7% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------66,287----20.2% of total turnout

2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-Total votes cast statewide 346,085
City of Wilmington--------------24,614---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----196,566---56.8% of total turnout
Kent County--------------------52,189----15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County------------------72,716----21.1% of total turnout

2006 Attorney General race-Total Votes cast statewide 253,214
City of Wilmington--------------17,010---6.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----141,665---55.9% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------38,339---15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------56,200---22.2% of total turnout

2008 Insurance Commissioner's race-Total Votes cast statewide 381,168
City of Wilmington--------------26,945---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------208,015--54.6% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------62,389---16.4% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------83,819---22.0% of total turnout

2002 AGP report-(individual races not broken down by county)which reports turnout by groups
Total turnout is 232,497
New Castle County-------------145,836----62.7% of total turnout
(suburban & City of Wilmington)
Kent County-------------------34,015-----14.6% of total turnout
Sussex County-----------------52,646-----22.6% of total turnout

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

More information on possible turnout pattern in legislative special elections

2009-08-13T14:26:00.000-07:00

Of the ten legislative races I have so far been able to get approximate registration numbers for , only one has not fit the patten of turnout of 18% or below if more than 120 days before or after the Delaware legislative session June 30th end date and 25% or above turnout if held within 80 days of the June 30th legislative deadline.

On August5,2009 I did a post suggesting a potential turnout pattern, based on seven legislative special elections held between 2001 and the present.

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html

I can not verify cause-and-effect,but the numbers I am gathering continue to lend credence that this might be a pattern,not a series of anomalies.
Here are three more earlier special elections, two of which fit the pattern.

(1)On 6-11-1983 there was a special election to fill the seat vacated by the resignation of Rep Herman H Holloway,Jr.
James Sills, who would later serve two terms in the 1990s as Wilmington’s mayor, was the Democratic candidate. The Republicans did not field a candidate in the heavily Democratic district which included Wilmington’s east side, South Wilmington and the Hilltop neighborhood on Wilmington's West Side.
None of the other political parties fielded a candidate either.
The lack of nominated competition on the ballot did not create a lack of competition since same day write-in votes were still within Delaware law.
Sills won with 1194 votes. Marlene Holloway Dryden (Herman Holloway’s sister) received 204 write-in votes. 1,397 votes were cast,according to the Front Page story in the Sunday News-Journal on June 12, 1983 ( available on microfilm,but not online). A telephone verification with the Board of Election indicates there were 6 additional write-in votes cast for other candidates for a total of 1404 votes cast.
Total registration was 5,247 on 11-2-1982 and 5,990 11-6-1984 (the closest dates with registration figures on the Election Commissioner’s website) ,so I am assuming registration on 6-11-1983 was somewhere in between.
1404 would be 26.8% of 5,247 and would be 23.4% of 5,990, so the turnout was somewhere in that range despite only one major party candidate. 25.1% is midway between these two percentages,so will serve as a rough estimate.
I am thinking that the date of the election 19 days before the end of the legislative session may have meant more potential voters were thinking about the legislature at that time of year.
(2)When Lonnie George resigned his seat in the General Assembly in the summer of 1995, a special election was held on 8-12-1995. The winner was Rep Dennis Williams, who continues to hold the seat. He received 1,757 votes . Republican Karen J Miller received 897 votes and Libertarian Lawrence Sullivan received 122.
Total votes were 2776. There is no AGP report for special elections,so I can not establish exact registration figures. Here is the best approximation from the AGP reports of the general election before and after this special election: on 11-8-1994 there were 8,654 registered voters. On 11-5-1996 there were 10,089 registered voters. I assume the registration on 8-12-1995 is somewhere in between.
2776 is 32.1% of 8,654 and 27.5% of 10,089. Midway between these two would be 29.8%..
This election was held 43 days after the legislative session ended on June 30th .It had turnout of at least 27.5%. and maybe higher.

(3)In 1997 Rep Oak Banning died ,creating the need for a special election on Nov 13, 1997.This was 136 days after June 30th. Republican Dick Cathcart,who continues to hold the seat, defeated Democratic county council member Chris Roberts 1,966 to 1,758. Total votes cast were 3103. Registration figures for 1997 & 1998 are not available online, but on 11-5-1996 the election commissioner reports total registration as 10,923. 3103 is 28.4% of 10,923. That makes this the only legislative special election I have reviewed in which turnout did not fit the pattern.

We will know by 9-13-2009 whether the legislative special election in the 37th Rep District provides additional support for the theory there is a turnout pattern or challenges the theory by having a turnout less than 25%.

For election results:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Here is what Turnout looks like among election districts in the 37th Rep District since 2002

2009-08-09T12:11:00.000-07:00

In today's News-Journal newly minted Democratic candidate , Rob Robinson, stated his strong ties in Georgetown will be helpful in the upcoming special election in the 37th representative District.
"You can look at a map and tell Georgetown's going to bring a lot of weight," Robinson said.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20090809/NEWS02/908090343

I agree with him that Georgetown will have a major impact, but think he and any other candidates might need to build or reinforce relationships in Lewes,since a significant number of votes come out Lewes.

The numbers below indicate that if you break down the polling places by location, there are two in Lewes and four in Georgetown, one in Millsboro and one in Harbeson.

Over the last four elections the two in Lewes (the 1st of the 37th & the 2nd of the 37th) have accounted for 40.2% in 2008, 43.1% in 2006,41.0% in 2004 and 42.5% in 2002 of the overall district turnout.

The four Georgetown polling places ( 5th of the 37th, 6th of the 37th, 7th of the 37th and 8th of the 37th) accounted for 40.4% in 2008, 40.6% in 2006, 40.4 in 2004 and 41.4 in 2002 of overall district turnout.

The Millsboro polling has contributed between 12 and 15 % of overall district turnout in each of these elections,so it deserves some attention as well.

In 2002 Joe Booth unseated John Schroeder of Lewes after redistricting altered the lines of the 37th district which Schroeder had represented to include Georgetown where Booth had been mayor. Booth won by 44 votes overall,but lost the 1st of the 37th 978-462 and the 2nd of the 37th 845-472. Lewes votes did not win the election for Schroeder,but they kept it close.
We don't know who Robinson will face in the special election or what part of the district they will come from, but I'm betting Lewes will also "bring a lot of weight".

STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37
Turnout in the state rep race 2008
1st-37th***9th Grade Campus-Lewes---------------1727--17.8% of district turnout

2nd-37th***Shields Elementary,Lewes ------------2175--22.4% of district turnout

3rd-37th***Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro ----------1525--15.7% of district turnout

4th-37th***Harbeson Church Hall -----------------364--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th***GeorgetownElementary School -----------1022--10.5% of district turnout

6th-37th***North Georgetown Elementary School---- 1755--18.1% of district turnout

7th-37th ***GeorgetownMiddleSchool-----------------831--8.5% of district turnout

8th-37th***Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown --323--3.3%of district turnout

total ------9722

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect08/elect08_general_election/html/elect08_gen_edrd.shtml

Turnout in the Attorney General’s race in 2006
In the 37th Rep District
State Rep Joe Booth ran unopposed
1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1433--20.9% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1521--22.2% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 867--12.6% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall------- 251--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School--- 766--11.2% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School--- 1264--18.4% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool--- 565--8.2% of district turnout

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown--- 190--2.8% of district turnout

total------- 6857

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml

Turnout state rep race 2004

1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1787--20.3% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1822--20.7% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 1268--14.4% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall---- 326--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School---- 988--11.2% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School--- 1577--17.5% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool---- 753--8.6% of district turnout

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown---- 277--3.1% of district turnout

total------- 8798

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/elect04_general/elect04_general_edrd.shtml

turnout state rep race 2002

1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1440--22.2% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1317--20.3% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 797--12.3% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall--- 246--3.8% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School--- 788--12.1% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School-- 1210--18.6% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool--- 507--7.8%

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown--- 189--2.9% of district turnout

total------ 6494

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

The top seven election districts in the 19th Senate District continue to provide more than the majority in turnout

2009-08-09T05:54:00.000-07:00

6884 total votes were cast on 08/03/09 in the Special Election in the 19th State Senate District. Here is what the numbers in the top seven election districts in the district looked like on August 3, 2009:

Representative District 35GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01-
761 votes cast- 11.1 % of total turnout
BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02-
1296 votes cast-18.8% of total turnout
DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04-
545 votes cast-7.9% of total turnout

36th RDMORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER-Lincoln ED: 04 RD:-
391 votes cast-5.7% of total turnout
MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOLED: 06 RD: 36Milton-
574 votes cast-8.3% of total turnout

37th RD6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY-ED: 06 RD: 37-
943 votes cast-13.7% of total turnout

39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL-ED: 03 RD: 39-
363 votes cast-5.3% of total turnout

Total turnout production for these seven districts:
4873 of 6884 votes cast for 70.8% of total turnout

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

In case you want to compare past turnout production:

Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***10.3% of total district turnout
2006***10.6% of total district turnout
2008***11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 10.9% of district total

BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 13.6% of total district turnout
2004***14.5% of total district turnout
2006***15.3% of total district turnout
2008***16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total

DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 8.1% of total district turnout
2004***8.6% of total district turnout
2006***8.1% of total district turnout
2008***8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total

36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 8.2% of total district turnout
2004***8.7% of total district turnout
2006***8.4% of total district turnout
2008***8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total

MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 8.0% of total district turnout
2004***7.7% of total district turnout
2006***8.4% of total district turnout
2008***8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total

37th RD

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 11.7% of total district turnout
2004***10.5% of total district turnout
2006***11.3% of total district turnout
2008***9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total

39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39

2002*** 6.8% of total district turnout
2004***6.8% of total district turnout
2006***6.4% of total district turnout
2008***6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-dont-know-who-will-win-in-19th.html

Maybe A Special Election Turnout Pattern

2009-08-05T18:43:00.000-07:00

Posted: Thursday, July 2, 2009
“For now I am saying 15+% to low 20's% turnout,but it's still early to predict.”

I’ll admit I thought turnout would be less than 27.0% in the 8-3-2009 special election in the 19th State Senate District.

I’ll also let you join me in tracking a theory I am working on. I look for patterns and Special Elections may not occur often enough to develop patterns, but here is what I am considering.

June 30th is the day the Delaware State budget is mandated to be passed and a sizable amount of major legislation occurs within a week or two of June 30th. It is when the General Assembly gets the most media attention and when constituent groups can impact (or at least most closely follow) legislation.
Would scheduling proximity in relation to June 30th have an impact on turnout in legislative special elections?

I have only been able to establish turnout data for special elections held since Jan 2001 using available online data. There have only been seven special legislative elections since Jan 2001. It may be too small a sample to even make assumptions.but a pattern seems to be present.The three held within 80 days of June 30th (before or after) each had a minimum turnout of 27%. None of the four that were held more than 120 days from June 30th (before or after) got above 18%.

I am sure there may be other factors involved,but found this interesting.
The upcoming special election in the 37th Representative District will supply some more data to see if this pattern holds.

2nd Rep District-Jan.20, 2001-14.5% turnout-161 days from June30th

7th Rep District-April 14,2007-29.1% turnout-77 days from June 30th

41st Rep District-May 5, 2007-28.0% turnout-56 days from June 30th

14th Sen District-Nov 3,2007-18.0% turnout-126 days from June 30th

28th Rep District-Dec 8, 2007-18.0% turnout-161 days from June 30th

6th Rep District-Dec 20, 2008-18.13% turnout-173 days from June 30th

19th Sen District-Aug 5,2009-27.0% turnout-36 days from June 30th

Notes on the numbers
For Jan 2001 total turnout was 1343 and I used the registration from the Nov 2000 AGP report since exact registration numbers for Jan 2001 were not available . The Nov AGP report on the Election Commisisoner’s website indicates in Nov 2000 there were 9,244 registered voters.

Here is the link for the 8-3-2009 19th senate special election numbers:

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml

Other numbers can be located in the Election Archive at the Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

and the New Castle County election board’s website:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special.shtml

Numbers for the Next Round in Sussex County-37th Rep District registration -a swing district as far as registration goes-special election in weeks

2009-08-03T19:08:00.000-07:00

District*** Democrats*** Republicans*** Others*** Total

01 OF 37** ***943******* 924********** 531****** 2,398
02 OF 37**** 1,219****** 1,173********* 696****** 3,088
03 OF 37 *****927******* 809********** 518****** 2,254
04 OF 37***** 174******* 226********** 113******* 513
05 OF 37***** 444******* 637********** 266****** 1,347
06 OF 37**** 1,101******* 920********** 570****** 2,591
07 OF 37****** 443****** 457*********** 235****** 1,135
08 OF 37****** 234****** 133*********** 98******* 465
Total ********5,485***** 5,279******** 3,027***** 13,791

Last Updated On 08/01/09 00:43:25

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

One reason some politicians hang out at senior centers: the over 50 crowd can produce a majority of votes without having a majority of the voters

2009-07-30T17:03:00.000-07:00

The AARP will be happy to see that in the 19th Senate District the over 50 year old voters cast over 50% of the votes with less than a majority of the registered voters in 2002 and 2006. For candidates this is important because they can maximize their time by contacting registered voters who are more likely to actually vote.

I have looked at the 2002 and 2006 elections because a lot of the people who vote in presidential year elections drop off in off-year elections and it is doubtful they would vote in the special election 8-3-2009, if they would not vote in 2002 and 2006 when the 19th senate seat and multiple statewide offices were on the ballot. The extra voters in 2004 and 2008 are less likely voters in a special election. They are the political equivalent of people who follow their hometown sports team,but only during playoff time.

The 50 and over group had a 13plus greater turnout percentage than the overall voting population in each of these elections.

Here are what the numbers tell us of how the over 50 group outperforms as a voting group:
19th State Senate District
2002
Total registered --21,286
Total votes cast --10,346---overall turnout 48.6%

Voters Age 50-59--registered-3666*********17.2% of registered voters
Voters age 50-59-- votes cast-2162*********20.9 % of total votes cast
Group turnout-59.0%

Voters age 60-65--registered-1444**********6.8% of registered voters
Voters age 60-65 -votes cast-965************9.3 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--66.8%

Voters 65 &over registered-4003***********18.8% of registered voters
Voters 65 &over votes cast-2631************25.4 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--65.7%

Voter50 & over registered--9113********* 42.8% of registered voters
50 and overvotes cast--5758*************55.6 % of votes cast
Voters 50 and over-group turnout-63.2%

2006
Total registered --23,432
Total votes cast --11,245*****************overall turnout--48.0%

Voters age 50-59 registered--4385****************18.7% of registered voters
Voters 50-59 votes cast---2552******************22.7 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--58.2%

Voters 60-65 registered--1936*********************8.3% of registered voters
Voters 60-65 votes cast-1245********************11.1 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--64.3%

Voters 65 & over registered--4738****************20.2% of registered voters
Voters 65 & over votes cast--3014****************26.8 % of total votes cast
Group Turnout--63.6%

Voters50 and over registered--11,059***********47.2% of registered voters
Voters50 and over votes cast--6811*************60.6 % of total votes cast
Voters 50 and over- group Turnout 61.6%

The numbers used are from the 2002 AGP report and 2006 AGP report on the State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html

In 2002 voters over 50 years old supplied the majority of votes cast at 14 of 16 polling places in the 19th Senate District

2009-07-26T19:34:00.000-07:00

2002 Over 50 vote
1st-35th -total votes cast-1,108
50-59 -- 222 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 361 registered) 20.0% of votes cast
60-65--98 Votes cast ( 64 %turnout within age group- 154 registered) 8.8% of votes cast
65/OVER--291 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group- 446 registered) 26.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-55.1%

2nd-35th -- 1,371
50-59--281 Votes cast ( 55%turnout within age group-507 registered) 20.5% of votes cast
60-65-135 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group- 206 registered) 9.8% of votes cast -
65/OVER--364 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 605 registered)26.5 %of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.8%

3rd-35th -- 280
50-59-- 70 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 25.0% of votes cast
60-65--21 Votes cast ( 62%turnout within age group- 34 registered) 7.5% of votes cast
65/OVER-71Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-110 registered) 25.4% of votes cast -

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.9%

4th-35th -- 848
50-59--208 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group-- 386 registered) 24.5% of votes cast
60-65--80 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 134 registered) 9.4% of votes cast
65/OVER--192 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group- 319 registered) 22.6% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.5%

6th-35th -- 421
50-59-- 73 Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group- 159 registered) 17.3% of votes cast
60-65-- 47 Votes cast (62 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 11.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--78 Votes cast ( 53%turnout within age group- 148 registered) 18.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-47.0%

7th-35th -- 288
50-59--66 Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group-119 registered) 22.9% of votes cast
60-65-- 35 Votes cast ( 71%turnout within age group- 49 registered) 12.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--67 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group-111 registered) 23.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.4%

4th-36th -- 847
50-59--186 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group- 318 registered) 22.0% of votes cast
60-65--68 Votes cast ( 57%turnout within age group-120 registered) 8.0% of votes cast
65/OVER--197 Votes cast ( 59%turnout within age group-336 registered) 23.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-53.3%

5th-36th - 272
50-59--43 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group- 77 registered)15.8 % of votes cast
60-65--22 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group-38 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER-- 55 Votes cast ( 64%turnout within age group-86 registered)20.2 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-44.1%

6th-36th --842
50-59--163 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-- 267 registered) 19.4% of votes cast
60-65--73 Votes cast (68 %turnout within age group-107 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--245 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-375 registered) 29.1% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.2%

8th-36th -- 565
50-59--103 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group- 192 registered) 18.2% of votes cast
60-65--60 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-95 registered)10.6 % of votes cast
65/OVER--127 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group- 202registered) 22.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-51.3%

4th-37th-- 251
50-59--50 Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-74 registered)19.9 % of votes cast
60-65--31 Votes cast ( 86%turnout within age group-36 registered)12.4 % of votes cast
65/OVER--60Votes cast (76%turnout within age group-79 registered)23.9 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.2%

5th-37th--774
50-59--176 Votes cast (75%turnout within age group-236 registered)22.7% of votes cast
60-65--67 Votes cast (89 %turnout within age group-75 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER-176 Votes cast(82%turnout within age group-215 registered)22.7% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-54.1%

6th-37th-1,212
50-59--225Votes cast(58 %turnout within age group-391 registered)18.60% of votes cast
60-65--99 Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-147 registered)8.2 % of votes cast
65/OVER-382 Votes cast(69%turnout within age group-551 registered)31.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.3%

8th-37th- 188
50-59-- 51Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 27.1% of votes cast
60-65-- 8 Votes cast (47 %turnout within age group-17 registered)4.3 % of votes cast
65/OVER--39Votes cast (64 %turnout within age group-61 registered)20.7% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-52.1%

1st-39th- 356
50-59--92Votes cast (68%turnout within age group-136 registered)25.8 % of votes cast
60-65--49Votes cast (83%turnout within age group-59 registered)13.8 % of votes cast
65/OVER--85Votes cast(65 %turnout within age group-131 registered)23.9% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-63.5%

3rd-39th- 723
50-59--153Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-260 registered)21.2% of votes cast
60-65--72Votes cast (74%turnout within age group-97 registered) 10.0% of votes cast
65/OVER-202Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-303registered)27.9 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50- 59.1%

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml

In 2006 turnout by voters over 50 years old provided the majority of votes cast in every election district in the 19th senate district

2009-07-26T19:33:00.000-07:00

2006 Over 50 vote

1st-35th—Total Votes cast 1,167
50-59-259 votes cast (55% turnout within age group-467 registered), 22.2% of votes cast
60-65-111 votes cast (58% turnout within age group-193 registered),9.5% of votes cast
65/OVER- 295 votes cast( 58% turnout within age group- 511 registered),25.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.0%

2nd-35th-Total votes cast-1,680
50-59--354 votes cast (56% turnout within age group- 631 registered), 21.1% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast-217 (64% turnout within age group-338 registered),12.9 % of votes cast
65/OVERvotes cast-480 (61% turnout within age group-786 registered),28.6 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-62.6%

3rd-35th-total votes cast-- 283
50-59--votes cast 77(62% turnout within age group-124 registered),27.2% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 36(73% turnout within age group-49 registered),12.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--votes cast-77(65% turnout within age group-119 registered),27.2% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--67.1%

4th-35th--total votes cast--888
50-59--votes cast 222(54% turnout within age group-411 registered),25.0% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 105 (58% turnout within age group-182 registered),11.8% of votes cast
65/OVER-votes cast 218 (60% turnout within age group-361 registered),24.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--61.3%

6th-35th --total votes cast-- 481
50-59 -- 116Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group - 213 registered) 24.1% of votes cast
60-65 --41Votes cast ( 48%turnout within age group-86 registered) 8.5% of votes cast
65/OVER --107Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-187 registered) 22.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-54.8%

7th-35th --288
50-59 --66Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group registered 119) ,22.9% % of votes cast
60-65 --39Votes cast ( 62 %turnout within age group --63registered),10.1 % of votes cast
65/OVER --70Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group--111 registered),24.3 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.3%

4th-36th - 948
50-59 --222 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group--368 registered) 23.4% of votes cast
60-65 -- 118 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group -- 178 registered) 12.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --207 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group--368 registered) 21.8% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.6%

5th-36th --287
50-59 --65 Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
60-65 --21Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 35 registered) 7.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --62 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 103 registered) 21.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-51.5%

6th-36th -total votes 948
50-59 -- 202 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 337 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --103 Votes cast ( 73%turnout within age group- 141 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER -- 290 Votes cast ( 70%turnout within age group- 414 registered) 30.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters 62.8

8th-36th -- 592
50-59 --124 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group-221 registered) 20.9% of votes cast
60-65 --60Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-96 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --139Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group-219 registered) 23.5 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-54.5%

4th-37th --257
50-59 --51 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 84registered) 19.8% of votes cast
60-65 -- 28 Votes cast ( 76%turnout within age group-37 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER --78 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group -108registered) 30.4% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-61.1%

5th-37th --779
50-59--184 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group--256 registered) 23.6% of votes cast
60-65 --91Votes cast (77 %turnout within age group-118 registered) 11.7% of votes cast
65/OVER --192Votes cast ( 77%turnout within age group-250 registered) 24.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-59.9%

6th-37th -- 1,296
50-59 --278 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-456 registered) 21.5% of votes cast
60-65 --131Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-192 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --423Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-636 registered) 32.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-64.2%

8th-37th -- 197
50-59 --47 Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-82 registered) 23.9% of votes cast
60-65 --16Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group-35 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --48Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-81 registered)24.4 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-56.4%

1st-39th --390
50-59 --83Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-137 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --48 Votes cast (73 %turnout within age group-66 registered) 12.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --111Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group-168 registered) 28.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-62.1%

3rd-39th -- 767
50-59 --202 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group--313 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
60-65 -- 80 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-127 registered) 10.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --217 Votes cast ( 69%turnout within age group -316registered) 28.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-65.0%

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html

A good idea of travel time from various locations in the 19th Senate District to the State Fair

2009-07-25T18:50:00.000-07:00

Below are mileage and travel times from Mapquest for the distance between several of the polling places and the State Fair. If proximity impacts attendance, I would say folks in the 35th (Greenwood & Bridgeville) might be more likely to attend the State Fair than their neighbors in the 37th (Georgetown) and the 39th (Seaford).The 36th includes areas close to the Fair, like Lincoln, and and Milton which is twice as far form the Fair as Lincoln.

Bridgeville Fire Hall to State Fair
15 minutes, 12.24 miles
Greenwood Fire Hall to State Fair
8 minutes, 7.56 miles
Morris Early Learning Center (Lincoln) to State Fair
19 minutes, 12.68 miles
Ellendale Fire Hall to State Fair
22 minutes, 16.42 miles
Mariner Middle School (Milton) to State Fair
36 minutes, 24.61 miles
Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
32 minutes, 25.8 miles
North Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
29 minutes, 23.46 miles
Seaford Middle School to State Fair
23 minutes, 19.36 miles

http://www.mapquest.com/

Some Thought on State Fair and the Special Election

2009-07-24T19:12:00.000-07:00

A News-Journal article about the scheduling of the 19th State Senate District Special Election mentioned the Delaware State Fair.
Originally, I had thought it might create a puzzle for candidates who planned to do door-to-door campaigning, since they might miss a lot of consitituents who would be at the Fair. Looking over the daily schedule I am betting they could do needed campaigning at the Fair during mid-day and be back in the district by 5:30 pm to get in a couple hours of door-to-door campaigning. The events in the evening (music concerts and comedians) are less amenable to casual conversing and walking around that would facilitate the type of interaction a candidate might like . Most of the events that are theme related on the themed days ("seniors day", "armed forces day" and "kids day") are before 5: 00 pm from what I observed in scanning briefly over the schedule.

I was afraid it created and "either/or" situation,but motivated candidates could spend s few hours at the Fair in the afternoon and still have a couple hours to visit constituents door-to-door.

If you have any doubts the Fair is a big event , here are some numbers and information from the State Fair website.
Over 300,000 attendees over the course of ten days.
Friday, July 24 - Saturday, August 1: 8:00 AM - 11:00 PM.Wade Shows Midway opens at 1:00 PM.
Here is an excerpt from the 7-30-2008 press release about last year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, William J. DiMondi, “attendance numbers after the first seven days were down at one point as much as 18% compared to 2007 due primarily to weather. After the break in the weather early Thursday, we came back strong, finishing the Fair with an attendance of 265,610 which is down only 4% from the Fair’s historic rolling 10-year average attendance.” Overall, attendance was down approximately 10% from 2007.
From the 7-31-2007 press release about that year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, Dennis Hazzard, the attendance for the 2007 event was impacted by several variables. The comfortable weather, exciting carnival rides, great food, and an all-star concert lineup made for a record setting year. The Fair closed the gates on the 2007 Fair with an overall attendance of 300,463—representing an increase from 2006 of nearly 3%.
http://www.delawarestatefair.com/fair/

I don't know who will win in the 19th special election,but here's is where a majority of the votes might come from ,if history repeats itself

2009-07-22T18:38:00.000-07:00

Special elections are all about turnout and usual patterns can be disrupted.Over the course of the last four election cycles (2002, 2004 ,2006 & 2008) since the current boundaries of the 19th State Senate District were established, a majority of the votes have come from less than a majority of the election districts. We won't know until the evening of August 3,2009 whether this pattern continues ,but below are where the majority of votes have come from in the 19th State Senate District since 2002 .

The seven election districts below (out of a total of 16 election districts) have produced between 67% and 69% of the districts votes cast in each of the elections since 2002.
These districts comprise 18,255 voters out of the 25829 registered in the 19th State Senate District. These districts make up 70.7% of the registered voters.

Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 1074 voted-- 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,927 voted---10.3% of total district turnout
2006***982 voted—10.6% of total district turnout
2008***1701 voted—11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 2821---10.9% of district total

BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 1371voted—13.6% of total district turnout
2004***2,193 voted---14.5% of total district turnout
2006***1419 voted—15.3% of total district turnout
2008***3,109 voted—16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total

DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 813voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2004***1,300 voted---8.6% of total district turnout
2006***752 voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2008***1,582 voted—8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total

36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 825voted—8.2% of total district turnout
2004***1,318 voted---8.7% of total district turnout
2006***784 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,612 voted—8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total

MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 803voted—8.0% of total district turnout
2004***1,169 voted---7.7% of total district turnout
2006***779 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,630 voted—8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total

37th RD

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 1174voted—11.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,596 voted---10.5% of total district turnout
2006***1052voted—11.3% of total district turnout
2008***1,838 voted—9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total

39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39

2002*** 687voted—6.8% of total district turnout
2004***1,038 voted---6.8% of total district turnout
2006***591voted—6.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,134 voted—6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total

Here are the combined numbers for these seven election districts since 2002:
2002*** 6747voted—67.1% of total district turnout of 10,052
2004***10,315voted---68.0% of total district turnout of 15,161
2006***6359voted—68.4% of total district turnout of 9294
2008***12,832voted—68.8% of total district turnout of 18,656
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 –18,255---70.7% of district total

Total Voter Registration for the 19th State Senate District as of 07-01-2009
25,829

from the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml

Total turnout 19th State Senate District
2002*****10,052
2004*****15,161
2006*****9294
2008*****18,656

In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.2008http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html2004

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF

The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive2006
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml

2002
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

Could A Republican Farther to the Right defeat Mike Castle in a primary?

2009-07-19T10:30:00.000-07:00

Mike Castle has been in statewide office since 1976 when he was elected Lt Governor. He has won statewide election when Republican Pete DuPont was elected Governor in 1976 and 1980 and he has been elected statewide during each of the elections that saw the election Delaware's 3 Democratic governors who have been elected since Pete Dupont left office in 1984. He has been on the ballot when Democrats were elected president (Carter, Clinton and Obama ) and he has been on the ballot when Republicans were elected president (Reagan, George HW Bush and George W Bush). He has been victoriuos each time.

His last serious interparty struggle was in 1992. He receieved 56% of the vote in a three way contest,but what made that contest different from a potential primary against a party outsider was that 30% of the primary vote went to Janet Rzewnicki, a three term state treasurer, who had won statewide in 1982,1986 & 1990. Rzewnicki would go on to be re-elected in 1994 for another term as treasurer after losing to Tom Carper in 1992 for Governor and before losing as treasurer to Jack Markell in 1998.

To unseat Castle someone will take on someone who has decades long name recognition and $861,201 on hand as of 6-30-2009 according to the Federal Election Commission. No other Republican has filed a campaign finance report for the 2010 election cycle as of 6-30-2009.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

Conservatives in Delaware may be buoyed by the success of Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania,who lost a close GOP primary 5 years ago to Arlen Specter.Toomey can reasonably be considered to be a prime reason Specter became a Democrat,since it is possible Specter may have lost a rematch in 2010. Toomey ,however, was a three term congressman and therefore has a political track record .

From 2005-2009 he served as President of the Club for Growth , a group whose website states it advocates lower taxes, less government and expansion of free trade.This position offered him a forum to raise issues and expand his potential donor pool .The club claims to be a national network of thousands of Americans. I am not sure if any GOP opposition planning to face Castle has such a network behind them as strongly as this group might be behind him.

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/

http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/biography/

Toomey also has a track record for raising large sums of money. He raised $5, 108, 291 in 2004 in his unsuccessful bid against Specter. Toomey was outspent 4-1 in 2004 but came within 2% of defeating Specter in the Republican primary
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

Neither Christine O’Donnell nor Mike Protack, two Republican primary candidates who ran against organization candidates in the two recent statewide elections, has ever held office. No current or recent office holders have been publicly named as potential GOP opponents for Castle. For either O’Donnell or Protack to come close to only being outspent 4-1 in a potential race with Castle, they need to substantially increase their fundraising efforts. Any other Republican attempting such a run would be starting an insurgency campaign with less than 14 months to organize , fund and implement an overthrow of one of the winningest politicians in Delaware history from within his own party.

According to the most recent quarterly filing to the FEC for her on the FEC website which was the 1st quarter filing submitted in April 2009, O’Donnell had $2,462.15 on hand and $24,298.64 in outstanding debts and obligations.

This was as Friends of Christine O’Donnell 08
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecgifpdf2/

As best I can tell she spent about $63,629 on her 2006 Senate campaign
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

and

$116,050 on her unsuccessful 2008 US Senate run against Joe Biden

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

From what I can tell Protack spent $86,683 in 2006 on the 3 way primary with O’Donnell and Jan Ting
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/

and
Mike Protack ran an unsuccessful race against Bill Lee in 2008 for the Republican nomination for Governor.
Here is a snapshot of his finances for 2008. He had $2,092.05 on hand eff 12-31-2007.
TOTAL RECEIPTS were reported as $26,670.00 between 1-1-2008 and 30 days report before Sept 2008 primary. In the 8 day report before Sept 2008 primary an additional $1,910.00 in receipts was reported.

http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/Home?openform

Within the Delaware Republican Party I do not currently see anyone with enough of a track record and financial base to take Castle on with a strong likelihood of success.

In case you are doing political comparison shopping in the 19th State Senate race.

2009-07-14T19:18:00.000-07:00

Here is a profile of each of the candidates from the 7-12-2009 Cape Gazette:

http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/200907/sendist19_10.html

Here are the websites for each candidate ( in alphabetical order of the parties involved):

The website for Polly Adams Mervine, Democratic candidate:

http://pollyforsenate.com/

I could not locate a website for Matthew Opaliski, Independent Party of Delaware, but here is a link to the party website with a contact number for the party if you want more information:

http://www.independentpartyofdelaware.org/

The website for Wendy Jones, Libertarian candidate :

http://www.delawareliberty.com/

Here is Republican State Rep Joe Booth’s website:

http://www.repjoebooth.com/

What Impact have 3rd Parties had on recent special election outcomes?

2009-07-12T16:48:00.000-07:00

While the introduction of third party candidates may offer voters additional options to the two major parties and create more election possibilities in theory , can they actually impact the outcome of a legislative special election in Delaware? One measurement is whether the third party vote total exceeds the margin of victory. Did the third party candidate (or candidates) get more votes than the difference between the winner and loser among the two major parties.

Maybe looking at special elections over the last 15 years can give some insight. There have been twelve special elections held in Delaware since 1994. Is it an admittedly small sample to make assumptions from,but it is the only measurable data we have. In five contests there were only two candidates, one Republican and one Democrat. In five other contests, there was at least one third party candidate and the third party vote total did not exceed the margin of victory,so did not impact the countable outcome.

In two other races, we can not be sure the third party votes changed the final outcome, but they did exceed the margin of victory and could have been a deciding factor in the determination of the winner. In the 5th Levy Court race total turnout was only 1223 votes so it is possible that third party candidate Kevin McCarthy may have reached his saturation point at the 207 votes he received. If that is the case any increase in turnout would have diminished his impact.

The 41st state rep race can not happen again because John Atkins received 14% as a write-in candidate and write-in candidacies have been banned since then ( see Delaware Code link below). Candidates must make known their intention to run as a write-in which I am assuming take's some of the perceived urgency out of a write-in campaign and inherently makes them less of an outsider tool. It is doubtful anyone other than John Atkins,who has represented the area from both major parties, in the 41st could have pulled this off in an area as big as a state rep district, although Newark City Council member Jerry Clifton won a write-in campaign in a smaller district.
John Burton's Independent Party candidacy also exceeded the margin of victory, making this the only race in which two nonmajor party candidates each had vote totals that exceeded the margin of victory.
These races indicate that for a third party candidate to impact the election outcome the two major party candidates have to be fairly close in votes.

In the 19th Senate District I doubt the two nonmjaor party candidates will have enough combined votes to exceed the margin of victory. Turnout is the central issue in a special election because there are no other races to draw voters out. The Democrats and Republicans can more accurately locate party loyalists for the get-out-the-vote from prior voting patterns in party primaries. How do the Libertarians and Independent Party candidates know who they should target? Because someone is not a D or R, does not mean they espouse any particular philosphy or voting pattern.Money will likely be more plentiful for the two major parties for promoting their messages. With less money and less structured organization I assume less results.

2009
New Castle County 5th council-no 3rd party candidate
2008
6th state rep dist-no 3rd party candidate

2007
There were five races, two did not have a 3rd party candidate. In the 14th Senate race Joanne Christian ran as the Republican candidate and as the candidate of the Independent Party of Delaware, but her third party votes did not exceed her loss margin as the Republican candidate. In the 41 st Rep District race the Independent Party of Delaware candidate did have a vote total ,but the nonmajor party candidate whose vote total most exceeded the margin of victory was a write-in candidate ---John Atkins who had resigned as a Republican legislator and has since been elected to serve the district as a Democrat. In the 5th Levy Court District in Kent County Kevin McCarthy's 207 votes or 16.9% more than exceeded the 5% margin of victory.

2001
There was one race with a third party candidate who vote total did not near the margin of victory.

1997
There were two special elections. One had a third party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the victory margin. In the other contest there was no 3rd party candidate

1995
One contest with a 3rd party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory.

1994
There was one race which had a third party candidate,whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory

The upcoming special election in teh 19th senate district is the second special election of 2009. In the first one there was no third party candidate. Election Date: 02/19/09
Voter Turnout = 5%

COUNTY COUNCIL DISTRICT 5

DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELISA C. DILLER --808 --59 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY JAMES MOULTHROP --545 --40 . 3 %

In 2008 there was one special election and there was no third party candidate
Election Date: 12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
12 of 12 Districts Reported

DEMOCRATIC PARTY MICHAEL P. MIGLIORE --1467 --48 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY THOMAS H. KOVACH --1540 --51 . 2 %

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2007 there were five special elections
Election Date: 01/20/07
Turnout = 8%

5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT
DEMOCRATIC PARTY GEORGE SWEENEY --477 --39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY W. G. EDMANSON II-- 539-- 44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL KEVIN MCCARTHY-- 207-- 16 . 9 %

SPECIAL 04/14/07
7th Representative District
Bryon Short Democrat 2,275
James Bowers Republican 2,048
__________________________________________________________________________

Special Election - 05/05/2007
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 41

TOTAL

BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)
1576

HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)
1770

BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)
225

JOHN ADKINS (WRITE-IN)
584

ROBERT JOHNSON (WRITE-IN)
1

BRUCE COLLUM (WRITE-IN)
1

HENRY MC GOUL (WRITE-IN)
.
2

G.G. MESSICK (WRITE-IN)
1

GREG HASTINGS (WRITE-IN)
1

UNOFFICIAL OFFICE TOTAL
4161

14TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 3, 2007

ENNIS BRUCE C DEMOCRATIC 4,272
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M REPUBLICAN 1,704
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M IND OF DEL 309

28th Rep District12-8-2007

William Carson ( D) 1446

Christine Malec ( R) 703

18% turnout
_____________________________________________
2ND REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
January 20, 2001

HAZEL D. PLANT (D) 846

BEATRICE PATTON CARROLL (R) 453

ROBERT E. BROWN (L) 44

______________________________________________
9TH REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 13, 1997
J. CHRISTOPHER ROBERTS (D) 1,758
RICHARD C. CATHCART (R) 1,966

12TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 12, 1997
DEBORAH L. CUOMO (D) 485

DORINDA A. CONNOR (R) 2,554

RICHARK K. TRUBEY (L) 64

__________________________________________________

1ST REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
August 12, 1995
DENNIS WILLIAMS (D) 1,757
KAREN J. MILLER (R) 879
LAWRENCE SULLIVAN (L)122

_________________________________________________

2ND SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 16, 1994
HERMAN M. HOLLOWAY, JR. (D) 1,036

MARGARET ROSE HENRY (R) 1,487

SAMUEL GUY (K) 225

Sources on election results:
Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/

and
the New Castle County Board of Elections website:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml#general

Here is an excerpt from the relevant section of the Delaware Code regarding write-in candidates:
TITLE 15
Elections
Primary Elections and Nominations of Candidates
CHAPTER 34. WRITE-IN CANDIDATES
§ 3402. Write-in candidates for a general election.
(a) Superior Court shall only count a write-in vote for a person who has declared himself or herself a write-in candidate for the office for which that person was written-in in accordance with this chapter. Superior Court shall count a write-in vote for a candidate on a general or special election ballot if the write-in vote is for the office for which the person is a candidate.

http://delcode.delaware.gov/title15/c034/index.shtml

3 advantages State Rep Joe Booth has in the 8-3-09 special election in the 19th State Senate district. Advantages ,but not guarantees for success.

2009-07-08T18:36:00.000-07:00

State Rep Joe Booth is the Republican candidate in the 19th State Senate District . The senate district has a Democratic voter registration, but all four state rep districts which overlap with the 19th Senate District are represented by Republicans. The previously nominated Democrat , Eddy Parker, has stepped down and a new candidate is likely within the days.
Whoever is nominated as Democratic candidate faces at least three hurdles in the race with Joe Booth. Each of these could be a double edged sword for Booth , so no one has a lock on this contest.

(1) Joe Booth has a record to run on. As mayor of Georgetown and later as State Representative, he can point to decisions he has made or been part of which have impacted the lives of voters. Of course, if his opponent can point to circumstances where he can be portrayed as out of touch with the constituents of the 19th State Senate District, this may not be as much of an advantage for Booth.
Depending on the Democratic candidate they may have their own record to run on or , if they have not had previous public service, may be able to present themselves as a fresh approach compared to Booth ,who has been in public service for several years.

(2) Booth has a proven ability to raise money which will be needed to get a campaign message out in a matter of weeks . He also may have already had a fair amount on hand prior to his senate candidacy nomination.

State Rep Joe Booth’s 12-31-2008 end of year balance was $35,541.47. Between 10-28-2008 and 12-31-2008 he raised $4,800.00. His 8 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $1,775.00 between 10/08/2008 and 10/27/2008. His 30 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $20,950.00 between 01/01/2008 and 10/05/2008.

His 2007 end of year report indicates Booth’s committee raised $5,100.00 between 01/01/2007 and 12/31/2007.

http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/ByCandidate?OpenView&Start=2.28&Count=30&Expand=2#2

If you have difficulty accessing campaign finance from the link above , try this one and click on “view Reports Online”:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

It doesn’t mean the Democratic candidate can not raise a large amount of money in a short period of time, but it seems to mean that some time that might be used for voter contact will be used on donor contact by both the candidate and her/ his supporters.

(3) As a state representative in the middle of a term, Booth represents a win-win for campaign donors. If they donate and he wins, they supported a victorious state senator. If they support him and he loses , they supported someone who continues to have a vote in Legislative Hall as a state representative.

A 2007 Special Election demonstrates my point.
In the 14th State Senate special election held on November 3, 2007
Republican Joanne Christian’s 8 day filing from 9-30-2007 to 10-26-2007
reported Total Receipts of $22,350

*********************************************************************
Then Democratic State Rep. Bruce Ennis , who won the seat vacated by the death of State Sen Jim Vaughn, also submitted an 8 day filing from 9-27-2007 to 10-26-2007
He reported Total receipts of $42,915.00.
I can not be sure of the motives of anyone’s contributions ,but I can see that the outcome of supporting Ennis, who raised almost twice as much money as his opponent , was another inherent win-win for contributors. If he had lost, he would still have been a sitting legislator. By winning he moved to the State Senate where he became one of 21 , rather than one of 41 votes.

One option his opponent could try if that person is outspent by a large margin is to portray Booth as an insider , take advantage of as much free media as possible and hope enough voters to make a difference in the election outcome don't want an insider. The danger here is that some voters want an insider and I am guessing a significant number of voters in a district that has sent a decades long power player like Thurman Adams ( and I am not judging him positively or negatively by using this term as much as describing his role as executive Committee chair and later President Pro Tempore , he WAS a power player) back to Dover over the course of 36 years kind of like having an insider.
It's over three weeks away, so I plan to continue to follow this race and update when I find items of possible interest.

Some Thoughts about likely turnout in the 19th Senate Special Election.For now I am saying 15+% to low 20's% turnout,but it's still early to predict

2009-07-02T17:44:00.000-07:00

The last post noted that the range for turnout in recent special elections has been from 5% in the 5th New Castle County Council District race in Feb 2009 to 29.1 % in the 7th State Rep seat race in April 2007.

The only two contests that received less than a 18% turnout were the 5th County Council race in New Castle County and the 1-20-2007 5th District Levy Court contest in Kent County.This would make me wonder if there is just less interest in county races than State legislative races.

This is likely due to the Delaware Code mandated limits on the issues county government addresses ( primarily public safety, land use, libraries) as opposed to the wider variety of issues the State government is able to address ( including health care, infrastructure, the court system, the correctional system and enough other items to make this year's State budget bill- HB 290- 242 pages).

The other reality of county government is that some of it's functions only take place in unincorporated areas.If you live in the City of Wilmington or Newark, municipal government may address some of these issues and you might be less motivated to vote in the county council race.
Some of the functions are continuous functions that become part of everyday community life and people may forget about them until they are directly impacted (for example, library or park hours are reduced). Otherwise, they may well be below the average voter's radar.

For these reasons I think it is possible the 19th State Senate race will have turnout closer to the other state legislative special elections than to either of these county government special elections.
It is still early, but as of now I would assume high teens to low 20s is the likely percentage turnout.
The State Fair will take some folks away from the district as has been pointed out in local media. I think another factor that I have not seen mentioned is that the election will be during a summer period when many people who can travel do travel, so some voters may be away.The vacationers, the infirmed and frail elderly would be ideal candidates for absentee voting, but it is questionable whether the condensed time frame of a special election will allow for the needed outreach for locating and contacting likely potential absentee voters.

Prior Special Election Turnout Doesn't Tell Us what the turnout will be in the 19th,but may hint at the parameters for turnout

2009-07-01T03:10:00.000-07:00

12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
MIGLIORE MICHAEL P. DEMOCRATIC 1,467
KOVACH THOMAS H. REPUBLICAN 1,540
Total voter turnout 3,007
18.13% turnout

28th Rep District
12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout

14th Senate
11-3-2007
Bruce Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309
18% turnout

41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)—1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)--1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)--225
JOHN ATKINS (WRITE-IN)—584
28% turnout

STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7
Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %
JAMES BOWERS-REPUBLICAN—2048--47 . 4 %

29.1% turnout

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

New Castle County -5th County Council Feb 19th, 2009

DILLER ELISA C. DEMOCRATIC 808 60%
MOULTHROP JAMES REPUBLICAN 545 40%
Total votes cast 1,353

Turnout was 5.53%
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml

Election Date: 01/20/07
Voter Turnout = 8%
Kent County 5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT

DEMOCRATIC PARTY

GEORGE SWEENEY--------477----39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
W. G. EDMANSON II-------539---44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
KEVIN MCCARTHY--------207---16 . 9 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect07/elect07_special_levy_5/html/election.shtml

Relative Vote Numbers Weight Between the 4 Rep Districts whose portions create the 19th State Senate District remained constant since 2002

2009-06-28T18:42:00.000-07:00

While past performance is no guarantee of future performance the relative weights of each of the four representative district which have portions that comprise the 19th State Sen District supplied roughly the same percentage of the district total each of the four elections held since the 2002 reapportionment created the current 19th State Senate District.

Relative turnout is less predictable in a special election,but if this trend remains constant it could impact the outcome of the upcoming special election.Who controls what geography is always important,but when it looks lopsided enough to favor a specific area contestants must either get their fair share from that area or significantly drive up their numbers elsewhere.

2008
Total votes cast--------------18,656
35th Rep District--- Votes cast 8350-- percentage of Sen Dist.total--44.8%
36th Rep District--- Votes cast 4988-- percentage of Sen Dist.total--26.7%
37th Rep District--- Votes cast 3604---percentage of Sen Dist.total--19.3%
39th Rep District--- Votes cast 1714---percentage of Sen Dist.total--9.2%

2006
Total votes cast------------- 9294
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 4057--percentage of Sen Dist total--43.7%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 2305--percentage of Sen Dist total--24.8%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 2042-- percentage of Sen Dist total--22.0
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 890---percentage of Sen Dist total-- 9.5%

2004
Total votes cast ------------15,161
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 6656-- percentage of Sen Dist total--43.9%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 3712-- percentage of Sen Dist total-- 24.5%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 3212--percentage of Sen Dist total-- 21.2%
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 1576-- percentage of Sen Dist total --10.4%

2002
Total votes cast ----------10,052
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 4210--percentage of Sen Dist total--41.9%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 2446--percentage of Sen Dist total--24.3%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 2364--percentage of Sen Dist total--23.5%
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 1032--percentage of Sen Dist total--10.3%

In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.

2008

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html

2004

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF

The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive
2006

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml
2002

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

General Election 19th State Senate Polling Places. Likely to be combined into fewer locations for the special election

2009-06-27T10:28:00.000-07:00

Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01

BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02

WOODBRIDGE HIGH SCHOOL ED: 03
Located in Bridgeville

DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.

REDDEN COMMUNITY HALL ED: 06 RD: 35.

ELLENDALE FIRE HALL ED: 07 RD: 35

36th RD

4. MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln
ED: 04 RD: 36

5. DEL TECH - JASON BLDG
Georgetown
ED: 05 RD: 36

6. MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36

Milton

8. ELLENDALE FIRE HALL
ED: 08 RD: 36

37th RD
4. HARBESON CHURCH HALL
ED: 04 RD: 37

5. GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ED: 05 RD: 37

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37

8. DOT TRANSPORTATION BLDG
ED: 08 RD: 37
Georgetown

39th RD

1. SEAFORD MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 01 RD: 39

3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39

From the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/pollingplaces/sussex.shtml

Rest In Peace Senator Adams

2009-06-23T17:59:00.000-07:00

State Senator Thurman Adams passed away in the last 24 hours . While many may dispute his politics and legislative style, it is a mathematical fact that he has shown political staying power. He had been in the State Senate since 1972, meaning he had served through the Nixon, Ford ,Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush , Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama adminstrations. The only other current member to serve since 1972 is House Speaker Rep. Bob Gilligan.

My sympathy is extended to the Adams family at this time of sorrow.

A Special Election will take place within weeks.Registration totals show 19th Sen District to be a swing district

2009-06-23T17:45:00.000-07:00

SUSSEX COUNTY
STATE SENATE DISTRICT #19

District ----Democrats Republicans Others Total

01 OF 35 ----1,058 ------1,193 ------562--- 2,813
02 OF 35---- 1,888------ 1,543------ 931--- 4,362
03 OF 35 -----238-------- 245 ------143---- 626
04 OF 35 ----1,174-------- 747------ 462---- 2,383
06 OF 35 -----464-------- 448------ 293---- 1,205
07 OF 35 -----300-------- 211------ 156----- 667
RD Total ----5,122------ 4,387 -----2,547-- 12,056

04 OF 36----- 966-------- 750------ 565---- 2,281
05 OF 36----- 249-------- 251------ 137------ 637
06 OF 36----1,022-------- 706------ 510---- 2,238
08 OF 36----- 625-------- 392------ 278----- 1,295
RD Total ----2,862------ 2,099---- 1,490----- 6,451

04 OF 37----- 175-------- 224------ 112-------- 511
05 OF 37----- 446-------- 637------ 264------ 1,347
06 OF 37----- 1,100------ 917------ 574------ 2,591
08 OF 37----- 233-------- 129------- 97-------- 459
RD Total ----1,954------- 1,907---- 1,047----- 4,908

01 OF 39----- 263-------- 395------ 155-------- 813
03 OF 39----- 557-------- 674------ 324------ 1,555
RD Total -----820------- 1,069----- 479------ 2,368

SD Total--- 10,758------ 9,462---- 5,563------ 25,783

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml

A Delaware Budget Alternative Offered By Rep John Kowalko

2009-06-15T17:51:00.000-07:00

News-Journal Op-Ed 5-10-2009
Delaware citizens are facing an uncertain future that threatens to tear at our state’s long term health.

Republican and Democratic labels must be cast aside, and we must all look for answers in a spirit of responsibility, equality and sustainability.

Every Delawarean, regardless of their position, shares a common fate, and by simple logic, must share in a common solution.

Every one of the approximately 870,000 business entities that call Delaware home must also share in a common solution.

Responsible and equitable and sustainable. It is imperative that we find a solution that offers long term stability and fosters growth. It is not possible to support any quick fix that in the end places a greater burden on already overburdened state agencies, weakens Delaware’s long term stability and makes our revenue and tax stream revenues even more regressive and punitive to those who can afford it the least.

In light of the Governor’s March 2009 budget proposal, which states, “No group will bear a disproportionate burden from this challeng e alone,” the proposed 8% salary cut does not make sense. In addition to the obvious issues of equity and fairness, there are potentially crippling economic consequences that will further damage our already fragile state economy.

In a time when increased consumer spending and confidence is a collective goal, the salary cut is a step backwards, taking nearly a hundred million dollars of spending power out of an already faltering economy. Businesses up and down the state, already reeling and many of them surviving week to week, will suffer even greater harm, damaging the overall economic picture.

Shrinking business revenue could lead to even more employee layoffs in the private sector resulting in fewer opportunities for those who have already lost their jobs to reenter the job sector. There is also the real risk of small business failures that would continue the downward economic slide in Delaware. Since small businesses in Delaware employ over 50% of the workforce this is a risk we cannot afford to take.

There is a more equitable and responsible path to travel, one that involves all of our state’s people, giving all of us a sense of stewardship in these difficult times.

Delaware ranks, according to the Tax Foundation, tenth in the nation in business tax climate. But as equally important, if not more so, is the legal standing of Delaware Corporate Law. Website after website praises Delaware as a corporate haven, and even the Delaware Department of State Website states in a document titled, “Why Corporations Choose Delaware,” that Delaware law is “one of the most advanced and flexible corporation statutes in the nation.”

According to the Mone y Magazine, Delaware ranks as the fourth most tax friendly state for its citizens, beaten out by only Alaska, New Hampshire and Tennessee.

A quick look at proposal unveiled earlier this week reveals a menu of options from which to choose. We have looked at a over a dozen alternate revenue streams, any combination of which would spread the burden more evenly and would eliminate the need for an across the board salary cut to state employees.

The options include a closer look at the PIT structure, the Franchise Tax Cap for companies valued at over $660,000,000.00, fees for many of the 875,000 companies that have incorporated in Delaware, gasoline tax, and of course, dipping into the Rainy Day Fund. There are several more alternate revenue streams from which lawmakers can pull in our collective effort to balance the budget.

State employees make up approximately 6.8% of Delaware’s work force, and at an average salary of $44,000, are being asked to contribute an average of $3,520.00 per worker. Taking such a disproportionate amount of necessary livable income from median income workers directly contradicts the idea of a shared sacrifice and will further erode consumer confidence and spending. In reality, a salary cut is akin to a disproportionate tax on a small minority (6.8%) of the work force, and the effects go far beyond the ideas of fairness and equity to the very principals of a sound economy. When you factor in the increase in health benefits, the still frozen salary scales and the possibility of furlough days, the gap between rhetoric and reality widens even further.

An example of a more evenhanded and economically sound approach would be to ask for a small incremental annual amount from all workers rather than carve upwards to $$3,520.00 from a smaller limited number of workers averaging $44,000. There are six different PIT scenarios included in our proposal, and any one of them honors the ideas of asking all Delawareans, not just a small captive audience, to share in the burden.

Of the approximately 875,000 businesses that incorporate in Delaware, nearly 260,000 of them are traditional publicly traded companies. 1500 of these companies, all with a minimum asset value of $660,000,000 can be asked to contribute more with an increase in the Franchise Tax Cap, in an effort to live up to the ideal of shared burden and sacrifice.

In the “Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Report” by Nicholas Johnson (1/12/09) reference is made to a letter from Noble Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University and Peter Orsatz, (co-signed by 120 economists) to N.Y. Governor David Patterson. They write that “cuts could be more harmful for a state’s economy during a recession then tax increases…some types of reductions would reduce demand in the economy on a dollar-for-dollar basis and therefore be more harmful to the economy than a tax increase”. 0A

In light of these threats to a smooth economic recovery, and working in conjuction with the State Finance Department, the Office and Management and Budget as well as Controller General’s Office to ensure the accuracy of these numbers, we are confident that this plan follows the responsible and equitable path towards an economic recovery.

John Kowlako and Philip Kaplan

For more details go to:

http://www.johnkowalko.com/

A Reader asked if Md school board members get a salary. They do.Delaware school board members don't.

2009-05-05T03:40:00.000-07:00

From a Maryland online newspaper:
The Herald-Mail
02/15/2009
Annapolis Notes
School board members salaries could be raised
The Maryland General Assembly is considering a bill that would raise the salaries of members of the Washington County Board of Education.
The House of Delegates Ways and Means Committee heard the bill last week. No action was taken.
The bill, which is sponsored by the Washington County delegation to the General Assembly, would raise the annual salary for the school board president to $6,200 from $5,600.
School board members would receive $6,100 — a raise from the current salary of $5,500.
The pay raises would not take effect until all of the current terms of office expire.

http://www.herald-mail.com/?cmd=displaystory&story_id=216826&format=html

Connie Merlet, a former Christina School District board member, explains the pay situation for Delaware board members-they don't get a salary:

"In Delaware there is no pay. Most districts pay for members to go to conferences, although all have different policies on how and whether they are going to pay for those. There's the National conference every April and districts usually send one to 5 members. It's expensive ($2000/ board member) so it depends on how much money the district has available. There are smaller conferences too, and boards vote on whether they can afford it. Most boards set an amount into the budget each year. But no pay.Other states. Lots of other states have boards that get paid. Usually the big southern consolidated districts. Some pay a marginal amount- like $5000 so members can take time off from their regular job for daytime board duties (in Christina we used to plan groundbreakings and stuff for 5 pm because every board member when I was on the board worked), others get paid real money- one of the mid-west board members I talked to- Illinois, maybe?- got like $38,000! "

Part 1-Election Survey Responses In From 2008 Md School Board Candidates

2009-05-03T06:46:00.000-07:00

I received 21 responses to the 92 emails sent. Taking into account nine were returned as undeliverable, that is better than a 25% response from email surveys received by Maryland school board candidates.

While there was not a total consensus, there was widespread agreement among the participants of several points.

The two questions that had the most consensus were #3 and #4.

(3) Do you feel voters in school board elections should be required to be registered voters? If they are not in your county, can you explain how this is facilitated in the voting booth ?

18 said yes -voters should be registered voters to be able to vote in a school board election.

2 indicated they were unsure since they had never participated in a school board election in which unregistered people could vote .

One did not answer this particular question.

(4) Can you explain any benefits you can see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?

Some gave multiple answers, so there are more than 21 given.

17 stated the advantage is higher turnout. 5 stated the advantage is a cost saving to the public due to not having to hold a seperate election. One person did not answer this question.

(5)Can you explain any disadvantages you see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?

8 stated they saw no disadvantage.

9 raised the issue that offices that far down the ballot get ignored which results in voter dropoff at the bottom of the ballot and "random" voting ( for example, picking a candidate by which column their name is in or based solely on name recognition).

1 person raised the potential problem of voter ignorance and 1 other raised the potential of straight ticket voting when voters know the affiliation of nonpartisan school board candidates and vote for the nonpartisan candidate who is of their own party and may even be endorsed by partisan candidates of their own party.

It could be due to the wording of questions 1 & 2 or the complexity of the issues raised by questions 1 & 2, but several of the responses were more nuanced than just "yes" or "no". I will continue to review the answers and I plan to post again on this survey by week's end.

E-Focus group survey of MD 2008 school board candidates on the implications of HB 117

2009-04-30T03:53:00.000-07:00

Based on the assumption that Delawareans had opinions on school board elections on general election day and Marylanders have actual experience with school board elections being held on general election day , I emailed 92 Maryland 2008 school candidates with a five question survey .

As of April 30, 2009 I have had 9 emails that were not deliverable. This may be due to spam filters. It could also be that some candidates set up email addresses for the election and are not now checking those email accounts almost 6 months after the election.

I have had responses from three candidates who have not yet answered the survey and we have been playing telephone & email tag. Complete responses with answers to survey questions have been received from 16 candidates.
At week's end I will review the completed responses I have received and as soon as possible provide some analysis of the responses ,along with some of my thoughts about the answers.

Email survey that was sent to Md 2008 school board candidates

2009-04-28T18:28:00.000-07:00

I am John Tobin, the author of a blog about Delaware politics, and I am researching potential outcomes if HB 117, a Delaware General Assembly proposal to move Delaware school board elections from Spring to the date of the November general election every two years, is enacted into law. Since you have been a school board candidate in your county in an election held on the same date as the general election , I felt you would be an ideal person to ask for an opinion.
Currently school board elections in Delaware are nonpartisan and a person does not have to be registered to vote in school board elections. While school board elections would continue to be nonpartisan, HB 117 would mandate that voters be registered.
Please answer the following questions, if time allows:
(1) Do you feel having school board elections on the same date as the general election makes them more partisan, even if they are officially nonpartisan ?
(2) Do you feel having school board elections on the same date as the general election drives up the cost of campaigns for school board elections? If so, does the expense near that of partisan races?
(3) Do you feel voters in school board elections should be required to be registered voters? If they are not in your county, can you explain how this is facilitated in the voting booth ?
(4) Can you explain any benefits you can see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?
(5) Can you explain any disadvantages you see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?
Thank you for answering these questions and please feel free to offer any extended comments you might feel comfortable sharing.

Beau Biden and John Carney have a recent track record raising campaign money

2009-04-13T20:01:00.000-07:00

As of Dec 31, 2008 Beau Biden reported having $$148.698.95 on hand ,having raised $161,219.41 from Jan 1,2008 to Dec 31, 2008. As of 12-31-2007 Biden had $5,399.84 on hand. Biden raised $161,219.41 while not on the ballot in the middle of his current 4 year term as Attorney General.

John Carney reported having $$6.321.32 on hand as of 12-31-2008.Carney reported raising $212,616.39 between 9-2-2008 and 12-31-2008 , $155,508.64 between 8-11-2008 and 9-1-2008 and $421,965.27 between 1-1-2008 and 8-31-2008. As of 12-31-2007 Carney $1,000,321.04 on hand. It appears that Carney spent cover $1.7 million on his unsuccessful bid to be Governor.

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

The most recent finance numbers on Mike Castle

2009-04-10T19:44:00.000-07:00

It appears Mike Castle’s campaign had $841,543.23 on hand as of 3-31-2009, roughly 19 months before the polls open in Nov. 2010.
Federal candidates must file quarterly ,so his next report will be in 3 months.

From the Federal Election Commission’s website:

http://www.fec.gov/

The link to Mike Castle’s 4-10-2009 filing with his campaign’s finance’s eff 3-31-2009 from the FEC website:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00254938/411848/

FEC FORM 3
REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS
For An Authorized Committee
FILING FEC-411848

1. Castle Campaign Fund
PO Box 133
Wilmington, Delaware 198990133
State is Delaware in District: 1
Report Type = APR QUARTERLY

SUMMARY PAGE
Of Receipts And Disbursements
5. Covering Period 01/01/2009 Through 03/31/2009

-----------------------------------Column A This Period---------------Column B
--------------------------------------------------------------ElectionCycle-To-Date

6. Net Contributions (other than loans)
(a) Total Contributions (other than loans) 71500.00------------------- 73200.00
(b) Total Contribution Refunds----------------0.00--------------------- 2500.00
(c) Net Contributions (6(a) - 6(b))-------- 71500.00------------------ 70700.00
7. Net Operating Expenditures
(a) Total Operating Expenditures ----------68417.56------------------ 220441.81
(b) Total Offsets to Operating Expenditures 1612.20------------------- 12912.20
(c) Net Operating Expenditures------------ 66805.36------------------ 207529.61
8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period $841,543.23
9. Debts and Obligations Owed TO the Committee 0.00
Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D
10. Debts and Obligations Owed BY the Committee 0.00
Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D

In 2010 Will Democrats Have the Dollars to Compete with Mike Castle?

2009-04-05T17:46:00.000-07:00

Money can not necessarily guarantee an election victory,but it can provide things like organization and name recognition. This is particularly true in a statewide race more than local races, since it would not be likely that a statewide candidate will be able to have as much extended person-to-person contact with individual voters as a local candidate because the voter base is so much larger .

The campaign finance numbers from the Open Secrets website which tracks campaign finance from the Federal Elections Commission and the election percent results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website indicate that Mike Castle’s ability to raise money may have had a big impact. Over the last five election cycles Castle has outraised his opponents in dramatic fashion with closest ratio being about 3-1 in the 2006 race with Dennis Spivack. In 2000 Castle outraised Mike Miller by a 14-1 margin. The other three races had Castle outraising Miller (2002), Paul Donnelly (2004) and Karen Hartley-Nagel (2008) by margins exceeding 50-1.

Several years of incumbency does not hurt Castle’s chances. However, for a challenger to seriously give him a run for his money, I am thinking they may need to raise an amount closer to what Castle is used to raising.

It is notable that none of the Democratic candidates he faced between 2000 and 2008 has ever held public office. This might have impacted their ability to raise money. It might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If potential donors believe a candidate can’t win because he/she has never held office, that belief limits donations and may go a long way towards f preventing that candidate from winning elective office. This may be an issue if the Democratic nominee is one of the recent nominees or if it is soon-to-announce candidate Scott Spencer, a long-time community activist on transportation and energy issues who has not previously held elective office. It is not impossible to win without holding prior elective office, but that does mean the candidate has to start from scratch in the fund-raising and name recognition areas.

Two of the possible candidates rumored to be considering an election contest against Castle, Attorney General Beau Biden and former Lt Governor John Carney, have both had past statewide election victories and have experience raising money for statewide races. I plan to research their fund-raising history in upcoming weeks.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/results.php?qname=castle

2008
Mike Castle
61 . 1 % of the vote

Raised:
$1,480,591
Spent:
$1,808,076
Cash on Hand:
$862,744
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

Karen Hartley-Nagle
Karen Hartley-Nagle (D)
38 . 0 % of the vote
Raised:
$27,845
Spent:
$27,785
Cash on Hand:
$58
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

2006
Mike Castle
57 . 2 % of the vote
Raised:
$1,267,040
Spent:
$1,112,716
Cash on Hand:
$1,190,228
Last Report:
December 31, 2006
Dennis Spivack (D)
38 . 8 %of vote
Raised:
$382,417
Spent:
$380,390
Cash on Hand:
$2,026
Last Report:
December 31, 2006

2004
Mike Castle
69 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$992,240
Spent:
$902,706
Cash on Hand:
$1,035,902
Last Report:
December 31, 2004
Paul Donnelly
Paul Donnelly (D)(30% of vote)
Raised:
$4,429
Spent:
$4,429
Cash on Hand:
$0
Last Report:
October 20, 2004

2002
Mike Castle
72 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$796,752
Spent:
$760,161
Cash on Hand:
$946,368
Last Report:
December 31, 2002
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(27% of vote)
Raised:
$15,373
Spent:
$13,202
Cash on Hand:
$4,269
Last Report:
September 30, 2002

2000
Mike Castle

67 . 6 % of vote
Raised:
$675,048
Spent:
$588,911
Cash on Hand:
$909,781
Last Report:
December 31, 2000
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(30 . 8 % of vote)
Raised:
$47,650
Spent:
$48,986
Cash on Hand:
$2,099
Last Report:
December 31, 2000

Election results from the Delaware Commissioner of Elections:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Here is a link to Scott Spencer’s campaign website:

http://www.spencerforthepeople.com/

Democrats Could take US Rep seat if they hold Democratic base and break even with Others

2009-03-23T18:41:00.000-07:00

The point of the last two posts was that if Democrats ,who have such a large registration advantage , were to get a decisive majority of Democrats who vote in the US House race they could win by winning that large majority of their own party’s voters and by breaking even among Others (unaffiliated voters and third party voters). 25,000 to 70,000 more Democrats than Republicans have usually voted in recent elections,depending on whether it is a presidential or nonpresidential year.

In 2010, a nonpresidential year the difference will be closer to 25,000 –30,000 than 2008’s 71,000 plus advantage,but that is still sizable.
Here is what the voter difference by registration has looked like the last statewide few elections:
2002 Democrats 224,130 registered & 101,080 Dems voted (45%)
2002 Republicans 175,325 registered & 87,695 Reps voted (50%)
2002 13,385 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2004-Democrats 240,999 registered & 165,185 Dems voted (69%)
2004-Republicans 181,510 registered & 127,056 Reps voted (70%)
2004-38,129 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2006- Democrats-246,149 registered & 116,955 Dems voted (48%)
2006-Republicans-178,655 registered & 90,176 Reps voted (50%)
2006-26,779 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2008-Democrats 279,916 registered & 199,095 Dems voted (71%)
2008-Republicans 181,858 registered & 127,346 Reps voted (70%)
2008-71,749 more Democrats than Republicans voted

Since 1992 this has not taken place in the Congressional race,but statewide Democrats have done it in other races so it is possible.

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website

In 1984 & 1992 It can't be proven Castle got Democratic votes,but it can be proven his rivals lost some.These were still his closest races to date.

2009-03-15T18:23:00.000-07:00

In his two most competitive statewide races, it can not be proven Mike Castle got Democratic votes.It can be proven his opponents lost Democratic votes. William Quillen in 1984 and S B Woo in 1992 each had votes total below the number of Democrats who voted. Castle exceeded the number of Republicans who voted,but it can not be proven he received any Democratic votes. Castle beat Quillen 56% to 44% for Governor. Castle beat Woo 55% to 43% for US Representative .The remaining 2% went to a Libertarian candidate in 1992.

1984
Castle received 135,250 votes when elected Governor

If he received all GOP votes cast 88,888
And all Others cast 54,579
Which equals 143,467
Meaning he would need to get zero Democrats,since

143,467 is greater than 135,250

This does not prove Castle did not get any Democratic votes, but it proves that you can not mathematically prove he got any Democratic votes which might mean he got a smaller percentage of Democratic votes in 1984 than in 2004, 2006 & 2008 when it can be proven he received thousands of votes from Democrats.

Castle got 8,000 fewer votes than the combination of Republicans and Others. For him to have gotten a substantial number of Democratic votes would mean he received a diminished number of votes cast for him by Republicans and Others. Since Castle got 15,000 more votes than any other Republican statewide except Ronald Reagan (who received 152,190), this seems unlikely.
The Republican US Senate candidate, John Burris, received the fewest statewide votes for a GOP candidate in 1984. Burris received 98,101 votes in his unsuccessful campaign against Joe Biden.It appears that 98,101 of the 143,467 Republicans & Others constitute the mathematical equivalent of Republican straight ticket voting since all Republincan candidates got at least this amount of votes. This means that mathematically only 45,366 voters from this group were in play. Since Castle received 37,149 votes over 98,101, it can be assumed he received a fair portion of this group of 45,366 along with a smattering of Democrats.

The Democratic candidate who received the fewest votes in 1984 was Walter Mondale, the candidate who ran for President against Ronald Reagan. Mondale received 101,656. This is the mathematical equivalence of the Democratic straight ticket vote since all Democratic candidates got at least this amount of votes. Judge Bill Quillen, the Democratic candidate for Governor against Mike Castle, received 108,315,so he exceeded the mathematical equivalent of the straight ticket vote. This number ,however, includes some votes cast by people who are not registered Democrats. 114,610 Democrats voted and Quillen received 108,315, meaning at least 6000 Democrats either voted for someone else or decided not to vote in the Governor’s race. 12,000 voters who voted in the presidential race did not vote in the governor’s race,although this may have been to Quillen’s advantage as he lost by 26,935 votes and Mondale lost by 50,334.

Since 114,610 Democrats voted in 1992, we know that at least 6,000 did not vote for Quillen. This can be due to voting for Castle or they may have stopped voting without voting in this race.

While we can not prove mathematically that Castle received any votes from Democrats, we know Quillen got fewer than 100% of all Democratic votes. In a race with a 26,935 victory margin for Castle those 6,000 would not have changed the outcome,but they would have narrowed the margin.

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website

1992
Castle received 153,037 votes

If he received all GOP votes cast 106,372
And all Others cast 57,405
Which equals 163,777
Meaning he would need to get zero Democrats,since

163,777 is greater than 153,037

This does not prove Castle did not get any Democratic votes, but it proves that you can not mathematically prove he got any Democratic votes which might mean he got a smaller percentage of Democratic votes in 1992 than in 2004, 2006 & 2008 when it can be proven he received thousands of votes from Democrats.

Castle got 10,000 fewer votes than the combination of Republicans and Others. For him to have gotten a substantial number of Democratic votes would mean he received a diminished number of votes cast for him by Republicans and Others. Since Castle got more votes than any other Republican statewide, this seems unlikely.

The Republican Gubernatorial candidate, B Gary Scott, received the fewest statewide votes for a GOP candidate in 1992. Scott, received 90,725 votes in his unsuccessful campaign against Tom Carper.It appears that 90,725 of the 163,777 votes cast by Republicans & Others constitutes the mathematical equivalent of Republican straight ticket voting since all Republican candidates got at least this amount of votes. This means that mathematically only 73,002 voters from this group were in play. Since Castle received 62,312 votes over 90,725, it can be assumed he received a fair portion of this group of 73,002 along with a smattering of Democrats

The Democratic candidate who received the fewest votes in 1992 was SB Woo, the candidate who ran for US Representative against Castle. Woo received 117,426. This is the mathematical equivalence of the Democratic straight ticket vote, since all Democratic candidates got at least this amount of votes. Since 127,059 Democrats voted in 1992, we know that at least 10,000 did not vote for Woo. This can be due to voting for another candidate (though not necessarily Castle, since Libertarian Peggy Schmitt recieved 5,661 votes) or they may have stopped voting without voting in this race. 13,496 people voted in the presidential election, but did not vote in the US Representative race. Due to the secret ballot, it is not possible to quantify this voter dropoff by party affiliation.
While we can not prove mathematically that Castle received any votes from Democrats, we can verify that Woo got fewer than 100% of all Democratic votes. In a race with a 35,611 victory margin for Castle those 10,000 would not have changed the outcome,but they would have narrowed the margin.

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website

Mike Castle's recent Democratic Voting Support can be verified (up to a point) and conjectured beyond that point

2009-03-10T20:12:00.000-07:00

You may think Mike Castle has crossover appeal, but it can be mathematically proven that he has drawn significant numbers of votes from Democratic voters in recent years because he could not get the vote totals he has gotten without getting a mathematically verifiable amount of votes from Democratic voters and a potentially higher number from Democrat voters that can be conjectured if we assume that not all Republicans and Others voted for him AND we assume that at least some of the voter dropoff occurs among Republicans and Others.

2008

Castle received 235,437 votes

If he received all GOP votes cast 127,346
And all Others cast 87,121
Which equals 214,467
He would need to get at least 20,970 Democrats,since
20,970
+214,467
235,437

Since 199,095 Democrats voted in 2008, Castle had to have gotten at least 10.5% (20,970) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.

413,562 voters cast ballots in 2008 statewide in Delaware, but only 385,457 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 28, 105 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 28,105 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 214,467 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have voted for Castle to make up his total vote count.

So at least 10.5% (20,970) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle.

If you don’t think this is significant, it might be worth noting that although several Democrats statewide won decisive victories by margins of over 100,000 votes none had a vote total that was more than the combined turnout of Democrats and Others (286,216). Jack Markell won the Governor’s race by over 140,000, but still received 266,861 or about 20,000 below 286,216. While I don’t doubt that some of them got Republican votes, it can’t be proven from the numbers the way Castle’s ability to get Democratic votes can be proven. Since Democrats outvoted Republicans 181,858 to 140,543, Democrats can win by holding their base and getting enough Others. A Republican would need more Democratic defections.
________________________________________________________________

2006
Castle received 143,897 votes

If he received all GOP votes cast 90,176
And all Others cast 50,922
Which equals 141,098
He would need to get at least 2,799 Democrats,since
2,799
+141,098
143,897

Since 116,955 Democrats voted in 2006, Castle had to have gotten at least 2.4% (2,799) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.

258,053 voters cast ballots in 2006 statewide in Delaware, but only 251,694 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 6,359 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 6,359 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 141,098 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have had to vote for Castle to make up his total vote count.

So at least 2.4% (2,799) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle

It is mathematically impossible that his Democratic opponent, Dennis Spivack received all Democratic votes cast since 116,955 Democrats voted and his combined vote total of 97,565 & the dropoff of 6,359 equals 103,924 which is less than the number of Democratic voters who came to the polls. On the other hand, Democrat Jack Markell in the treasurer’s race with 174,388 had a vote total that exceeded the combined turnout of Democrats and Others (116,955 plus 50,922 which equals 167,877) ,meaning Markell mathematically had to get several thousand Republican voters to vote for him.
________________________________________________________________

2004
Castle received 245,978 votes

If he received all GOP votes cast 127,056
And all Others cast 79,008
Which equals 206,064
Meaning he would need to get at least 39,914 Democrats,since
39,914
+206,064
245,978

Since 165,185 Democrats voted in 2004, Castle had to have gotten at least 24.2% (39,914) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.

371,249 voters cast ballots in 2004 statewide in Delaware, but only 356,045 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 15,204 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 15,204 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 206,064 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have had to vote for Castle to make up his total vote count.

So at least 24.2% (39,914) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle in 2004.

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website

It paid to win where the most votes were cast in the 5th County Council Special Election

2009-03-04T18:36:00.000-08:00

An interesting pattern appears if we break down the polling places by the size of the impact they had on the overall votes cast. Lisa Diller won 11 of 14 polling places, but what appears as important is that she won in the places that turned out the greatest number of voters.

Impact is not the same as turnout percentage in this discussion. We are talking about numbers of voters. The 13-22nd which voted at George Wilson Community Center had a 18.35% turnout which is a high percentage in a special election with an overall 5.53% turnout,but since this district only has 109 registered voters the 20 votes cast there had little impact. By comparison, McVey Elementary School was the polling place for 3 election districts comprised of 4,176 registered voters It had only a 5.6% turnout, but those 234 voters made it the third highest polling places in terms of numbers of voters.
It is better to have a small piece of a very big pie than a big piece of a very small pie.

There were fifteen polling places and this pattern can be seen when we break them into turnout groups .

High Impact Polling Places
First Presbyterian Church –Total Turnout 241-Diller 128-Moulthrop 113
(2nd - 23rd & 5th –23rd) (7.95% turnout-241 out of 3,032 voters)
Downes Elementary School-Total Turnout 309-Diller 201-Moulthrop 108
(3rd-23rd & 4th-23rd) (11.01% turnout-309 of 2,806 voters)
West Park Elementary School-Total Turnout 100-Diller 79-Moulthrop 21
(7th-23rd)(6.86 % turnout-100 out of 1,458 voters)
McVey Elementary School-Total Turnout 234-Diller 129-Moulthrop 105
(2nd-25th,6th-25th, & 7th-25th) (5.60% turnout-234 of 4,176 voters)
Brookside Elementary School-Total Turnout 112-Diller 68-Moulthrop 44
(3rd-25th & 4th-25th) (3.66% turnout-112 of 3,058 voters)

In these five polling places, representing ten election districts, Diller beat Moulthrop 605 to 391 or 214 votes. She won overall by 263, so these areas provided much of her victory margin.
These ten election districts have 14,668 of the district’s 25,081 registered voters (as of 2-1-2009, but likely to fluctuate over time) . This is 58.5% of the county council district’s registered voters. The 996 votes casts at these 5 polling places represented 73.6% of the overall turnout district wide.Diller won 60.7% in these areas that comprised almost three quarters of votes cast.

Medium Impact Polling Places
Main Towers, Main Street-Total Turnout 34-Diller 26-Moulthrop 8
(1st -23rd) (4.35% turnout-34 of 781 voters)
Aetna Fire Hall- Total Turnout 35 –Diller 23-Moulthrop 12
(6th-23rd)(2.69% turnout-35 out of 1,302 voters)
Newark Library- Total Turnout- 55- Diller 40-Moulthrop 15
(1st-25th)(4.80% turnout 55 out of 1,145 voters)
Glasgow High School-Total Turnout 81-Diller 44-Moulthrop 37
(5th- 25th &9th-25th)(3.77% turnout-81 of 2,150 voters)
Newark High School-Total Turnout 56-Diller 34-Moulthrop 22
(8th- 25th)(6.33% turnout-56 out of 884 voters)

Diller won this group 167 to 94 or with 64% of the vote.

By contrast, in the five polling places with the lowest turnout, Moulthrop won 62.5% of the vote.
Low Impact Polling Places
Maclary Elementary School-Total Turnout 19-Diller 7-Moulthrop 12
(13th-21st) (4.03% turnout-- 19 out of 472 voters)
Shue Middle School- Total Turnout 24-Diller 14-Moulthrop 10
(14th-21st) (8.73% turnout—24 out of 275 voters)
George Wilson Community Ctr-Total Turnout 20-Diller 5-Moulthrop 15
(13th-22nd)( 18.35% turnout-20 out of 109 voters)
Medill School-Total Turnout 14-Diller 1-Moulthrop 13
(3rd-24th) (1.08% turnout 14 out of 1,301 voters)
Jennie E Smith Elem School Total Turnout 19-Diller 9-Moulthrop 10
(6th-24th) (1.24% turnout 19 out of 1528 voters)
These five polling places combined for 96 votes or 7.1% of total turnout.
These five election districts make up 3712 of the 25,081 registered voters or 14.8% of the district’s potential voters.

High Impact polling places account for 73.6% of votes cast-Diller wins 605-391

Medium Impact polling places account for 19.3% of votes cast- Diller wins 167-94

Low Impact polling places account for 7.1% of votes cast-Moulthrop wins 60-36

When asked why he robbed banks Willie Sutton is quoted as having said “Because that’s where the money is”. On February 19, 2009 those five High Impact polling places in the 23rd and 25th Representative Districts were the places where the votes were. Winning there appears to be why she won.

Election results and turnout data is from the New Castle County Department of Elections:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml

The 5th Council Special Election post I had planned for Feb 18th . I was right on the outcome, but wrong on the turnout and winning margin

2009-02-23T17:57:00.000-08:00

What follows is a possible scenario, not a prediction. I learned from the special election in December 2008 in the 6th Representative District race that special elections have more variables and fewer givens than a regular general election,so I am shying away from making a prediction. I will, however, offer some observations and offer one possible outcome, based on those obseravtions.
Republicans tend to vote in higher percentages than Democrats and Democrats tend to vote in higher percentages than Others from what I have researched in the previous special elections for state representative races in the 6th Representative District and the 7th Representative District within the last 24 months. After talking with some people who have a fair amount of knowledge and reviewing those prior numbers, here is what I think might happen.

Out of the 25,044 registered voters in the 5th Council District as of Jan 1,2009 I assume the turnout will be about a 10 % higher turnout among Republicans than Democrats and 5% higher turnout among Democrats than Others.
In this example,
(1)Republican turnout is 25% or 1755 out of 7,021 registered Republicans,
(2) Democratic turnout is 15% or 1689 out of 11,261 registered Democrats and
(3)turnout for Others is 10% or 676 of 6,762 Others.
If Lisa Diller wins the mathematical equivalent of 100% of the Democrats (1689) and Jamie Moulthrop wins the mathematical equivalent of 100% of the Republicans (1755) and Diller wins 60% of the Others (406) to Moulthrop’s 40% of Others (270) ,based on Others in a Democratic area trending Democratic, Diller wins 2094 to 2025. This would be a 51% to 49% victory for Diller.
___________________________________________________________
Here are the actual numbers from what took place on Feb 19th:

DILLER ELISA C. DEMOCRATIC 808 60%
MOULTHROP JAMES REPUBLICAN 545 40%
Total votes cast 1,353

Turnout was 5.53%
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml

Turnout was lower than I expected and the winning margin was higher than I expected.It appears likely Diller secured a higher percentage of Others than expected, secured enough Republican votes to take away the mathematical equivalent of Moulthrop getting 100% of the Republican votes or secured a combination of those two events.
It is possible that Diller got the overwhelming number of Democrat votes and Democrats turned out in higher numbers than Republicans. This data is not yet available,but that is another possibility.

Some Possible Reasons for such a low turnout in the 5th County Council Special Election Thursday, Feb 19, 2009

2009-02-23T17:46:00.000-08:00

(1) It was on a Thursday when people are not used to voting for county council .
(2) It was in February when people are not used to voting for county council.
(3) A significant portion of the district lies within the boundary lines of the city of Newark and some Newark residents view municipal government as being more central to their daily life than county government.
(4) Election fatigue following one of the longest election cycles in history .
(5) Due to the faltering economy much of the current events focus of people & the media is on the federal government & its stimulus attempts and the state government as it deals with a budget shortfall that is unprecedented.
(6) Other than occasional posts on local blogs there was a virtual media blackout with minimal coverage between the announcement on Jan 12th that Stephanie McClellan was stepping down and the last couple days of the election when the candidiate profiles were published in the News-Journal . Local talk radio had featured on-air interviews with both candidates in the 6th State Rep race in Dec 2008,but this did not take place in the 5th County Council race 2 months later.
(7) Local volunteer groups that traditionally sponsor candidate forums did not sponsor one for this race. I assume this was due to the 30 day campaign cycle which prevented weeks of planning and publicizing needed for such an event to be successful.
(8) Although the issues & services county council deals with impact the lives of residents (libraries, parks, county police, land use & zoning, Licensing and Inspection , emergency medical response, etc), the range of issues it is empowered to address is more narrow than the range of issues the state legislature can address .This might partly explain why none of the last five state legislative special elections had less than an 18% turnout and the 5th county council special election had a 5% turnout.
(9) There was no precipitation ,but between 1:51 pm and 7:51 pm winds were between 17.3 mph and 29.9 mph with gusts over 30 mph reported every hour except 6-7pm. Even though temperatures that afternoon were in the 30-46 degree range, the wind made travel less pleasant than if it had been less windy.

Weather information source:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/

3 out 6-- a number why Thurman Adams is still in office and an example of “all politics is local”

2009-02-22T04:46:00.000-08:00

I grew up in Eastern Sussex County, but have dozens of relatives who have lived in Western Sussex County where my mother grew up. On Saturday I attended the funeral of my uncle, David Speicher, a lifelong Republican (as were many of the Speichers) and a former Republican state representative. One of the attendees was Democratic State Senator Thurman Adams.

It dawned on me that over the last 36 years since my grandfather died I had attended about 6 funerals in the Greenwood-Bridgeville area and Thurman Adams had attended at least three. Each of these funerals was in a small rural church with attendance of around 100 with maybe a couple dozen of friends and relatives who had moved away coming home to honor a loved one. So I would estimate about 75 people at each event were local residents (and I think they are likely voters or I would not be writing about it here)

While I may disagree with some of his politics, I have to admire that he has been there on these sad occasions for my family members. I mentioned to someone that he had been this consistent in attendance at my Republican relatives’ funerals and likely had been there to grieve with other families in the areas over the decades. The person pointed out he had also likely been there for the weddings and christenings as well. Those kind of bonds can be strong. If people have shared their joys and sorrows with him and broken bread with him on multiple occasions, it will take more than a political issue to sever that kind of tie.

This is not an endorsement, but rather a suggestion that part of what succeeds in local politics is local ties. I am thinking for anyone to beat Thurman Adams, whatever their politics might be , they are going to need to attend their fair share of weddings, funerals, chicken dinners,Lions Club shows and all matter of sporting events. People vote on issues and that is important, but in a complicated world people like to feel they have an advocate and knowing that advocate on a first name basis as a person with whom they have shared significant life events could easily be a comfort to a lot of voters as they maneuver through life’s complexities.

Lisa Diller ,Democrat, 5th County Council-My First Endorsement-Making an Exception for An Exceptional Candidate

2009-02-01T17:38:00.000-08:00

I have taken a hiatus from posting due to the time constraints of working within the compressed schedule of a special election. In Delaware the special election is held 30 days from when the Board of Elections receives the writ of elections. In January Stephanie McClellan resigned from her position as 5th District County Council member to join the Markell administration. In the 5th County Council District in New Castle County the special election is February 19,2009.

The Democratic nominee is my wife Lisa Diller, a Newark area pastor and educator. To learn more information about Lisa or get involved in the campaign go to her website:

http://www.lisadiller.com/

Lisa Diller brings a wealth of experience to the job. She has taught at the college level at the University of Delaware, Wesley College and Wilmington University for several years. She has been pastor at Christiana Presbysterian Church for the last two and a half years. For the five years before that she served as an administrator in the Delaware Department of Health and Social Services. She has also administered an Americorps project at the University of Delaware.

While many people focus on what elected officials say and that is important, I think some of the best politicians are the ones who are good listeners. To know what community needs are, elected officials need to seek out their constituents’ views. As a minister and educator, Lisa has developed into a skilled listener. At Christiana Presbyterian Church she has performed marriage ceremonies for church members, christened their babies and buried their relatives. These are all emotion charged life events and require listening skills. Though often less emotion charged, teaching requires similar listening skills. During this brief election campaign I have seen her handle calls from community organizations and residents. She has been thoughtful in her dealings with them and realistic in what can and can not be done given the current budget shortfall.

I have known Lisa for over a quarter of a century and we have been married for 18 years, so this may be my least objective posting to date. Even a more objective observer would concede that her experience places her in a position to create the kind of partnerships New Castle County will need as it moves forward. She has written, monitored and administered federal grants. She has served on teams that formulated presentations before the Joint Finance Committee of the General Assembly. She has engaged in coalition building in the nonprofit community with a particular focus on issues affecting families.
In the last several weeks she served on the the Transition Committee assigned to address issues affecting Children , Youth and Families for incoming Governor Jack Markell.

Lisa Diller speaks her mind,but she works well with others and both of these qualities will serve the residents of the 5th County County District and New Castle County well.

State Rep Race in the 24th Could be Exciting in 2010?…or 2012? Or Not?

2009-01-10T18:46:00.000-08:00

Republican Bill Oberle has represented the area outside Newark since 1976. Currently the district includes parts of Old Baltimore Pike , Kirkwood Highway and East Chestnut Hill. He represents Scottfield and shares representation of Brookside with Democrat John Kowalko of the adjacent 25th Representative District. There are other neighborhoods as well, but this gives you an idea of the area involved. As of 1-1-2009 the district registration tilts heavily Democratic with 6, 444 Democrats , 3, 057 Republicans and 3,132 Others among the 12, 633 registered voters.

Oberle has lasted for 32 years as a Republican in a heavily Democratic district in part by maintaining strong ties with labor unions and 2008 was no different. He was one of just three Republican candidates who received the nomination of the Working Families Party, which describes itself as “a grassroots, community and labor based political party”, in addition to the nomination of the Republican Party. Oberle also received contributions above the $100 amount which triggers mandatory reporting from several unions including the Carpenters, the United Auto Workers, the Teamsters and the Plumbers & Pipefitters.

2008 showed him his toughest election contest to date. It was also his first contested election in 20 years. His Democratic opponent Daniel Basara did not file prior to the July 25, 2008 deadline ,but was later appointed by the party. Since no other Democrat filed , Basara was appointed by the Democratic Party prior to the September 2, 2008 deadline. Oberle would have gone unopposed without the appointment.Oberle had paid his filing fee July 10, 2008,so had a 32 year incumbency advantage and a 2 month formal campaign headstart.

Oberle also got a headstart on fund-raising. Oberle started 2008 with $12,115.25 on hand according to his mandatory finance report filed 30 days prior to the Nov 2008 general election.. Between Jan 1st and Oct 1st Oberle raised $13,950.00 & spent $6,101. Between Oct 1st and Oct 27, 2008, the mandatory filing period ending 8 days before the general election, Oberle raised an additional $10,250.00 and spent $9, 720.70. Basara reports raising no money until Oct 1, 2008 . He raised only $2700 between Oct 1, 2008 and Oct 27, 2008 and spent $2,572.58 of that prior to end of the 8 day reporting period.

Since the reports are not yet available, we can not take into account money raised and spent in the days immediately before and after the general election. We can see that in the months leading up to the election Oberle outraised Basara $26,065 to $2700 or better than 9-1 and outspent him $15821.70 to $2,572.58 or better than 6-1.

The result was Oberle won by 602 votes (54% to 46%) and won 6 of 9 election districts. Basara won only 3 election districts, but in two losing districts he came close. In the 2nd of the 24th Oberle won 582 to 543 and in the 8th of the 24th Oberle won 695 to 683. This means that Basara won or seriously contested 5 of 9 districts. This may bode well for the Democrats in the next two to four years.

It is possible Basara or another viable Democratic may run in 2010 and start much earlier. With increased time to build an organization and raise money it is possible they may seriously challenge Oberle in 2010. I would say this is not overly likely without a lot of organization and 2009 preparation. 2010 will be an off year election ,so many of the more casual voters will not turnout.

Off year turnout could be more than 25 % less than 2008
Here are the turnout numbers for the 24th which has had the current boundaries since 2002:
2002 --35.3%
2004 --63.7%
2006 --37.7%
2008 –64.8%

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml

The 25% that comes out during a presidential year may have been the voters that brought Basara this close in 2008 and are less likely to vote in 2010. If he is serious about serving he should run again to maybe win, but also (in case of a 2010 loss) to increase his name recognition for a run in 2012 after reapportionment. If Basara does not run or they find a more viable candidate, the Democrats in the 24th might consider another 2010 candidate who is willing run with the realization it might be a trial run.

My guess is the most likely chance the Democrats have, unless they very early develop a strong organization behind their 2010 candidate, is in 2012 after reapportionment. Considering they have a 6,444 to 3,057 registration advantage, the Democrats can not create a district that is more heavily weighted in their favor as far as registration. They can change what Democrats will be voting in what districts, so that Democrats used to voting for Oberle have a different set of choices in 2012.

If they maintain control of the House of Representatives and the reapportionment process does not change , the House Democratic caucus will draw the 2012 district lines. As best I could tell from looking at the maps on the County Board of Elections website, the 24th is adjacent to the 18th, the 25th and the 26th Districts. Each of these is now represented by a Democrat.The lines could be drawn to place parts of areas where Oberle is popular in 3-4 different districts, splitting them between the current 24th and the other three Democratically held seats. Because each of them would have only a portion of where he is popular, the impact would be somewhat neutralized to each of the Democrats while Oberle’s base of supporters would be dispersed across multiple district lines. I am neither supporting nor opposing such a plan, but pointing what might be possible during reapportionment.

If Basara does not run and the Democrats don’t find a viable candidate in 2010 or 2012, Oberle may be in Dover for quite awhile longer. After serving more than 30 years Oberle may retire in upcoming years, if the Republicans do not regain the majority and he tires of minority party status. I have not spoken with either of these gentlemen, so have no idea of their plans.
The 24th might be a district to watch in 2010 or 2012 or not.

Finance reports available at the Delaware Elections Commissioner’s website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

24th Rep District Race by Election District in the 2008 Election

2009-01-07T03:15:00.000-08:00

Official Election Results By Election District
11/04/08 General
BASARA D (DEMOCRATIC) OBERLE W (REPUBLICAN & WORKING FAMILY PARTY)

01-24 Total 414-- --Basara 167-- Oberle 247 (244 REP & 3 WFP)
Includes part of Scottfield.Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School

02-24 Total 1125---Basara 543-- Oberle 582 (564 REP & 18 WFP)
Includes Todd Estates. Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School

03-24 Total 605 ---Basara 379-- Oberle 226 (218 REP & 8 WFP)
Includes Breezewood. Votes at Medill School

04-24 Total 908--- Basara 297-- Oberle 611 (587 REP & 24 WFP)
Includes Chestnut Hill Estates.Votes at Kirk Middle School.

05-24 Total 820--- Basara 291-- Oberle 529 (518 REP & 11 WFP)
Includes part of Scottfield.Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School.

06-24 Total 863--- Basara 451-- Oberle 412 (396 REP & 16 WFP)
Includes Newark Oaks & Kimberton Apts.Votes at Jennie Smith School.

07-24 Total 522 ---Basara 328-- Oberle 194 (185 REP & 9 WFP)
Includes Iron Hill Apts & Woodland Run. Votes at Glasgow High School

08-24 Total 1378-- Basara 683 --Oberle 695 (683 REP & 12 WFP)
Includes Westover Woods. Votes at Thurgood Marshall School

09-24 Total 877--- Basara 316-- Oberle 561 (546 REP & 15 WFP)
Includes Cedar Farms & Gray Acres. Votes at Glasgow High School

RD Tot Total 7512- Basara 3455- Oberle 4057 (3941 REP & 116 WFP)

Neighborhoods and polling places are mentioned to give the reader a general idea of the area encompassed by each election district. For additional information about election district boundaries you can see the map at the web address below.

Election results:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

District map at:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/house/hse24.pdf

24th Rep District May Be Competitive if Democrats Follow Up on 2008 Progress

2009-01-03T17:49:00.000-08:00

I realize some of the margin of closeness in this race may have been the "Blue Tsunami" in 2008. However, if the Democrats let Republican Bill Oberle, who has served since 1976, go back to running unopposed he is young enough he could be in Dover another 20 years. While I am not commenting on which candidate would make a better legislator from the 2008 contest, I do question whether it is good for democracy (with a little "d") for anyone to run unopposed for ten consecutive election cycles.
_______________________________________________________________________

2008 Bill Oberle ( R) 3941 & (WFP) 116 for a total of 4057 (54%.0) to
Daniel Basara (D ) 3455 (46.0%)
Unopposed in:
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986 Bill Oberle (R) 2,681 to Stan Glowiak ( D) 846
1984 Bill Oberle (R ) 5,040 to Francis Millman ( D) 1,039
1982 Bill Oberle ( R) 3,277 to Florence Irwin (D ) 1,016
1980 Bill Oberle (R ) 5,223 Stowell Kessler (D ) 1,249
1978 Bill Oberle (R ) 3,285 Bernice Holm (D ) 871
1976 Bill Oberle (R ) 3,358 Richard Legates (D ) 3,334

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Parallel Campaign Outcomes In Northern New Castle County-The Last Posting on Special Elections---------- For 2008

2008-12-31T20:20:00.000-08:00

The 6th Representative District and the 7th Representative District are adjacent districts in Brandywine Hundred . Recent political events have made the two seem like reverse mirrors, reflecting similar outcomes in opposite directions. In 2007 a Republican incumbent in the 7th district , Wayne Smith,resigned and a Democrat, Bryon Short, won the Special Election for the seat. In 2008 a Democrat incumbent ,State Representative Diana McWilliams, resigned in the 6th Representative District and a Republican , Tom Kovach, won the Special Election for that seat.

There are several similarities in these victories. Each winner had a registration disadvantage, although Short’s opponent’s 100 plus Republican edge seems more surmountable than the 2700plus registration deficit Kovach faced. Each victor won a majority of votes cast, but won less than a majority of the election districts (voting units which are not all the same size) involved. Kovach won in 5 of 12 election districts . Short won in 5 of 14 election districts. Kovach won with 51.2% of votes cast districtwide . Short won with 52.6% of votes cast districtwide. The five districts Kovach won represented 38.7% of total registered voters in the 6th. The five districts Short won represented 38.4 % of total registered voters in the 7th.

The 8 day campaign finance reports indicate that in the weeks leading up to the Special Election each winner was outdistanced by his opponent in campaign fund-raising. Republican Jim Bowers reported raising $68,159.85 in contributions and $10,000 in loans from the candidate for a total of $78, 159.85 received. Short reported $ 43,811.00 in cash contributions,$403.05 in loans from candidate and in $749.58 in-kind donations.

Democrat Mike Migliore’s finance report states between 11-20-2008 and 12-12-2008 he received $34,140.00 and lent his campaign $718.75. Tom Kovach got started a few days later and his report is from 12-1-2008 to 12-12-2008 ,a period during which he collected $10,375.00 .

Each won the five districts they won by enough to offset losses in a majority of the other election districts, but turnout was an important difference in the impact of these election districts towards overall victory . In the 6th District on Dec 20, 2008 Kovach won the 1st,2nd ,6th, 7th and 9th Election Districts of the 6th Representative District 893-654. He won this group of 1547 voters with a 57.8% victory margin . This 1547 represented 51.47% of the 3007 votes cast districtwide. In the 7th District race which was held on April 14, 2007 Short won his five winning Election Districts (the 1st, 4th,5th, 6th & 7th Election Districts of the 7th Representative District) with 67.3%, 1006 to 494, but the 1494 votes cast in his winning Election Districts only represented 34.6% of total turnout of 4323. Due to higher overall turnout Short, despite winning in his strong support districts by better than two to one, only won overall by 1.4% more than Kovach won in his lower turnout race. Basically, Short’s winning margin here was diluted by the higher overall turnout, including areas where he was not as strong.

Bryon Short won the 2007 Special Election by a 2275 to 2048 margin. Jim Bowers had a rematch in the 2008 general election and Short won more decisively, by 6281 to 4443.
Kovach won by only 73 votes, beating Mike Migliore by 1540 to 1467. It will be interesting in 2010 to see how heated the contest is for each of these seats.

All numbers quoted are from either the New Castle County Board of Elections website

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/default.shtml

or the State of Delaware Election Commissioner’s website

http://elections.delaware.gov/

Predicting Outcomes in Special Elections is complicated by several factors.

2008-12-29T18:15:00.000-08:00

Each Special Election is a stand alone, occasional event (not random, but not regularly scheduled) and is not part of a pattern of ongoing events like the primary and general elections held every two years.

(1)They happen so infrequently and irregularly that the sample size may be too small and unpredictable to make accurate predictions on a regular basis.

Every ten years following the census & reapportionment, the entire 21 member state senate is on the ballot. The other election cycles stagger state senate elections with 11 on the ballot in one cycle and 10 on the ballot the next cycle.

This means that from 1994 to 2008 there were potentially 94 Delaware state senate elections. Here is how it worked:
1994 & 1996 21 seats up
1998 & 2000 21 seats up
2002 21 seats up
2004& 2006 21 seats up
2008 10 seats up
Total 94 seats

All 42 state representative seats are up every 2 years which means between 1994 and 2008 there was the potential of having 336 contests, if none of these had been unopposed.

Over that same period there were 3 state senate Special Elections and 6 State Representative Special Elections. There have been four Special Elections since April 2007, but there were none between Jan 2001 and April 2007.
It’s a much smaller sample and scheduling (which is usually based on the death of a legislator or a change in a legislator’s ability to serve) is not regular.

(2)By definition they occur at a time other than when people are not used to voting. The recent 6th Representative District Special Election was held 6 weeks after the longest election cycle in recent history. Some voters may have tired of politics before Dec 20th. It was held
the last shopping day before Christmas, the day before Hannukah and the last Saturday before Kwanzaa. These combined to distract some percentage of voters away from the polls is my guess, although I don’t have polling data to support that assumption.

(3) It’s the only race on the ballot, so there are no coattails. In November 2008 voters had the marquee races for President, US Senator and Governor. In December there was only the 6th State Representative seat on the ballot.
One of the statistics I found interesting on the County Election Department website was voter drop-off which represents voters taking part in the voting process,but not voting in a specific race. In 2006 when the 6th State Representative District was contested in a three-way race, voter dropoff was 2.06% .152 voters entered the voting booth and did not cast a ballot in the 6th State Rep race.

I am betting these 152 voters did not come out on 12-20 which is possibly meaningful in a race decided by 73 votes. If 2% would not make it to the bottom of the ballot when they are already in the booth why would they come out for an election when one race at the bottom of the ballot is the only race on the ballot?

We don’t know the party affiliation of these dropoff voters,but in a district with 2700 more Democrats than Republicans where the Democratic ticket ran well in November there is a good chance a majority of these dropoff voters are Democrats.

On Nov 16th the Philadelphia Eagles played to a 13-13 tie with the Bengals,a team that ended the season 4-11-1 .Yesterday the Eagles beat the Cowboys 44-6 to clinch a NFL playoff berth. The Eagles are 9-6-1 and the Cowboys ended with 9-7 season. Earlier in the season the Cowboys beat the Eagles 41-37. The Eagles lost a close game against a good team, tied an awful team and then later routed the good team that had beaten them. It’s a “any given Sunday” situation.
I think that is what is at work in some of these Special Elections. The team that looks to have the advantage on paper wins more often, but every once in awhile the underdog wins (or ties in football). It’s all about who shows up on game day (election day).

Here is the link detailing voter dropoff in 2006

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006g/residual.pdf

Low Turnout in Democratic Strongholds& Higher Turnout in GOP Leaning Districts Gives 6th Rep Seat to Republican

2008-12-21T09:10:00.000-08:00

I correctly predicted the total turnout would be about 18%, but I was dead wrong about the outcome in the 6th Representative District Special Election on Saturday , Dec 20th.Relative turnout appears to be the key to Republican Tom Kovach’s victory over Democrat, Mike Migliore. Turnout in districts where Kovach won was measurably higher than districts where Migliore won.

There are twelve election districts in the 6th Representative District. Migliore won in 7 of 12 election districts . Kovach won in 5 of 12 election districts. District wide turnout was 18.1%.Turnout in the districts won by Kovach was 25.5%. Turnout in the districts Migliore won was 13.5%.

The following districts underperformed on turnout significantly :
3rd of the 6th (Edgemoor)-Migliore won 91-56,but with only 147 of 1,532 voters casting ballots turnout was 9.6%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 873-315 in this district.

5th of the 6th (Gov. Printz Blvd North of Edgemoor)-Migliore won 84-38, but with only 122 of 1,547 voters casting ballots turnout was 7.9%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 805-372 in this district.

10th of the 6th-(Claymont area)-Migliore won 140-113, but with only 253 of 1,885 voters casting ballots turnout was 13.4%. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district 929-492.

11th of the 6th ( Claymont area)- Migliore won 50-39, but with only 89 of 1,319 voters casting ballots turnout was 6.7%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 731-302.

12th of the 6th- (Lea Blvd/N Market St)- Migliore won 34-14 ,but with only 48 of 452 voters casting ballots turnout was only 10.6%. Democrats outnumber Republicans in this election district 217-116.

Migliore won these five election districts 455-260 or 63.6%,but turnout was too low to offset Kovach’s numbers in the five districts he won because turnout in these five districts was 9.64% The Democratic registration edge in these five election districts is 3555 to1597, better than 2-1. A not much higher turnout here would have supplied the 74 additional votes Migliore would have needed to win.

Kovach’s winning districts had an average turnout of 25.5% with the lowest turnout among these five districts being 16.7% . In the only 2 election districts in the 6th Representative District where Republicans outnumber Democrats , the 6th ED (Lombardy Elementary School area) and the 9th ED (Mt Pleasant High School area), turnout was 20.5% and 34.7 %, respectively. Kovach won the 6th ED by 186-145 and won the 9th ED by 73-30. He won these two election districts by 84 votes, more than the 73 vote margin of victory. Republicans outnumber Democrats 639-612 in the 6th and 129-102 in the 9th .

The 2nd of the 6th (also voting at Mt Pleasant High School) and the 7th of the 6th (voting at the Mary Campbell Center) were also pivotal to Kovach’s victory since he won the 2nd 245-205 despite a 753-523 Democratic registration edge and won the 7th 270-184 despite a slight 600-578 Democratic registration edge. Turnout was 25.9 % in the 2nd and 29.7% in the 7th.

Data is not currently available of turnout by party on the election commissioner’s website,but it appears likely in these two districts Republicans had a higher percentage turnout than the Democrats. It is possible that as more information becomes available, we may also find that people registered something other than Democrat or Republican may have been the deciding factor since this group makes up 24.7 % of the registered voters in the 6th Representative District.
We don’t know right now exactly who voted by party, but we can tell that where Democrats should have been stronger turnout was light and where Republicans had to win, turnout was heavier.

Some clarification on the last post

2008-12-17T03:13:00.001-08:00

In the math example, I stated what would happen if Kovach got all of the Republican votes and Migliore got all of the Democratic votes, Kovach would need to win 3-1 among Others.
I do not expect either candidate to win all of the votes of their own party and should have used the term numbers "equivalent to all" because after each of them get whatever numbers they get from their other party I think it will be the numerical equivalent of each getting roughly all of his own party vote and none of the other party vote which still leaves Kovach with a 200-300 vote deficit before Others are counted in with the turnout estimates I used.

If turnout is mugh higher or much lower, the number would require adjustment, but the principle would remain the same.

The numbers I used put estimated total turnout at 20%. I assume it will actually be closer to the 18% that voted in the Nov 2007 & Dec 2007 special elections for vacated legislative seats in late 2007.

The Numbers Seem To Indicate Migliore will win in the 6th Rep District in 12-20-08 Special Election

2008-12-16T18:33:00.000-08:00

The ten day campaign finance reports are now available on the Election Commissioner’s website and they indicate it pays to get an early start in amassing a campaign war chest.

Mike Migliore’s finance report states between 11-20-2008 and 12-12-2008 he received $34,140.00 (or an average of $1551.82 raised per day) and lent his campaign $718.75. Tom Kovach got started a few days later and his report is from 12-1-2008 to 12-12-2008 ,a period during which he collected $10,375.00 (or an average of $864.58 raised per day). As of 12-12-2008 Kovach had $2,608.70 on hand and Migliore had $25,257.75 on hand. In other words, Migliore spent $10,398.21, more than Kovach had raised , and still had over $22,000 more on hand than Kovach with only 8 days remaining.

This combined with the Democratic registration edge makes this pretty tough for Kovach. As of 11-1-2008 the Democrats held a 2672 voter registration lead over Republicans. As of 12-1-2008 here are the numbers for the 6th Rep District: 7,615 Democrats, 4,896 Republicans and 4,108 Others for a total of 16,619. To offset this disadvantage Kovach would either need to convince sizable numbers of Democrats and Others (in a Democratic leaning district) to vote Republican in the only race on the ballot or have a significantly higher Republican turnout than Democrats have.

Turnout by party is not yet available on the Election Commissioner’s website for 2008,but here is the breakdown by party for 2002, 2004 and 2008:
2006: Democrats 50%, Republicans 51% and Others 43% with total turnout at 48%
2004: Democrats 69%,Republicans 67% and Others 63% with total turnout at 67%
2002: Democrats 45% ,Republicans 50% and Others 39% with total turnout at 45 %

Past performance is no guarantee of voter behavior on a future specific date, but in the last three general elections where data is available the two major parties had turnout within 5 percentage points of each other with Others 4-7 % points below the party with lower turnout. If this holds true on 12-20-2008, Migliore should win as long as he holds the Democratic base.
If Republicans have 25% turnout that translates to 1224 votes, If the Democrats have a 20% turnout that translates to 1523 votes. If Others has a 15% turnout that translates to 616 votes. In this example, if Kovach gets all GOP votes and Migliore gets all Democrat votes, Kovach has to offset a 299 deficit among Other voters. To do so , he would need to beat Migliore about 3-1 among Others or 458-158. It seems unlikely that Others in a Democratic leaning district with two nonincumbents would vote 3-1 for the Republican unless there was a hot button local issue where the Republican was more line with local sentiment. This race has not generated any media around such an issue,so I assume a lot of voting will be done along party lines.

This is not a swing district. Obama beat McCain here 7538 to 3425 in 2008. Every member of Democratic statewide ticket except Congressional candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle carried the district by at least 2500 votes in 2008. In 2006 US Senate race incumbent Democrat Tom Carper won the district handily and Democrat Beau Biden beat Republican Ferris Wharton in the Attorney General’s race,but by only 262 votes.
In 2004 John Kerry beat George W Bush in the 6th 6403 to 4281. Incumbent Democrat Governor Ruth Ann Minner beat Bill Lee by 1140 votes here in 2004.
In US Senate contests Joe Biden won in 2002- 4245 to 2559 and in 2008 7501 to 3244 .
Mike Castle won this district each of the last four elections for Congress and Tom Wagner , Republican, won for Auditor in 2002, but these were the exception not the rule. Wagner lost the district by 3725 to 3514 in 2006.

Campaign finances, registration advantage, recent voter behavior and likely turnout breakdown combine to give Migliore the edge in this race.

For campaign finance reports:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

Registration totals as of 12-1-2008:

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

Election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/