The 23rd Rep District has a 3 way primary to succeed retiring State Rep Terry Schooley. I don't have a prediction who will win,but I have a prediction of where the majority of votes will come from: the 2nd Election District, the 3rd District, the 4th Election District and the 5th Election District. Below is a voting history that explains why I think so. These number seem to indicate that these four EDs would supply at least 60% of the 23rd Rep District's overal vote.
3-23 & 4-23primaryturnout history
23rd Rep Democratic registration as of 7-1-2012 is 5351.
3rdED has 563 registered Democrats and the 4th ED
has 907 registered Democrats for
a combined total of 1460 of 5351 or 27.3% of registered
Democrats in the 23rd.
2010 overall turnout
3-23&4-23 turnout
of 267 of 1,208 reg. Dems voted---22.1%
23rd RD district wide turnout 828
of 5,543 reg. Dems voted –14.9 %
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 3rd$4th
EDs--- 21.8% ( 1,208 of 5,543 )
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
3-23&4-23 EDs---32.2% (267 of 828 )
2008 State senate primary
3-23&4-23 turnout
of 524 of 1,156 reg. Dems
voted---45.3%
23rd RD district wide turnout 1,734 of 5,425 reg.
Dems voted –31.9 %
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 3rd$4th
EDs--- 21.3% ( 1,156 of 5,425)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
3-23&4-23 EDs--- 30.2% (524 of 1,734)
(scroll down to page 26 of 5 for the McKenzie-Terranova
primary results
(scrool down to pp14-15 of 17 to get the Democratic
registration numbers
2006 overall turnout
3-23&4-23 turnout
of 91 of reg. 1051 Dems voted---8.7%
23rd RD district wide turnout of 320 of
5,022 reg. Dems voted –6.4 %
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 3rd$4th
EDs--- 20.9% ( 1,051 of 5,022)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
3-23&4-23 EDs---28.4% ( 91of 320)
2004 overall turnout
3-23&4-23 turnout 253 of1,033 reg. Dems voted---24.5%
23rd RD district wide turnout 861 of 4,943 reg.
Dems voted – 17.42%
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 3rd$4th
EDs---20.9% (1,033 of 4,943)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
3-23&4-23 EDs---29.4% (253 of 861)
The 3rd and 4th EDs of the 23rd are adjacent election districts which voted
at Downes Elementary School from 2002
through the 2010 election and will again vote there in 2012. Since they
vote at the same location and share the same ballot, the New Castle County
Board of Elections combines their results during primaries. For this reason
they will be discussed as one voting unit for the primary.
The boundaries of the 3rd are the same after the
2012 reapportionment as they were for the five elections immediately prior:
Valley Road is the western boundary, Rahway Drive is the
eastern boundary,Nottingham Road is the northern boundary and Barksdale Road is
the southern boundary.
The boundaries for
the 4th ED changed slightly
to take in more of the district. The 2002 boundaries which have not
changed are Nottingham Road as the
northern boundary, Barksdale Road as it’s southern border and Rahway as it’s western border. The
eastern border has moved from Briar Lane to Hillside road as the 4th ED picked up the area
around Dallam Rd, Bent Lane, Hillside Rd and Old Oak Road ( across Hillside
Road from the Rodney Dorms) from the old 5th ED which moved part of
its boundary over to Elkton Road and ceded this area.
As the number above indicate this polling place is very
productive relative to the rest of the 23rd Rep District. In each
the four primaries reviewed it’s share of the actual votes cast from this
polling place represented between 28% and 32% of the votes cast in the entire
23rd Rep District, but this polling place represented only 20.9% to
21.8% of the registered Democrats in the district. When a polling places’
output of votes continuously exceeds it’s percentage of voters by 8-12%, that
seems like a place to concentrate appropriate resources.
The most recent voter registration figures indicate that this
polling place which had represented 20.9-21.8% of all registered Democrats in
the 23rd Rep District now represents 27.3% of the registered
Democrats in the 23rd Rep District. A place that already
outperformed now has more voters to perform with.
This would seem to imply that with 27.3 % of the registered
Democrats in the 23rd being within the 2nd & 5th,
that these two EDs will represent
between 35 % and 39 % of the votes that will be cast on
September 11th in the 23rd .
2nd & 5th turnout history
From 2002 to 2010 the 2nd of the 23rd
and the 5th of the 23rd both voted at First Presbyterian
Church and during primaries the Board of Elections provided a combined total of
votes. For the 2012 primary voters in the 2nd ED will continue to
vote at First Presbyterian and voters in the 5th ED will vote at the
Aetna Fire Hall on Thorn Lane of Elkton
Road. Short of purchasing the disc from the elections department of actual
voters and counting them there is no way to separate who voted from which ED,
so I will look at these two EDs as one unit with the realization that eff. 2012 they will no longer be one unit.
The 2012 boundaries
for each district are similar to the 2002
boundaries ,but slightly different.
The southern
boundary remains Nottingham Road for the 2nd ED. The Western
boundary moves from N Country Club drive to Valley Road which appears to be the
Maryland border, as this ED takes in new territory around Hidden Valley Road ,
East Mill Station and West Mill Station. The eastern boundary constricts from
N. College Ave to New London Road. The Northern boundary appears to be a
crooked line just south of Covered Bridge Farms as the old 9th ED
was split between the new 2nd ED
and the new 8th ED.
The 5th of the 23rd continues to
contain Abbotsford, Barksdale Estates , Willliamsburg Village and the
neighborhoods along Barksdale Road near Handloff Park. It lost Briar Lane,
Dallam Road, Old Oak Road and adjoining streets to the new 4th ED
and picked up College Park and Studio Green Apts from what had been the old 6th
ED.
In each of the four elections between 2002 and 2010 this
polling place had turnout within 2.3% (+ or - ) of the district wide turnout
percentage. It also represented within 3.6% (+ or -) of votes compared to it’s
percentage of registered voters within the
rep. district.
This would seem to imply that with 30.7% of the registered
Democrats in the 23rd being within the 2nd & 5th,
that these two EDs will represent
between 27.1% and 34.3% of the votes that will be cast on
September 11th in the 23rd .
2-23 & 5-23primaryturnout history
23rd Rep Democratic registration as of 7-1-2012 is 5351.
2ndED has 716
registered Democrats and the 5th ED has 927 registered Democrats for
a combined total of
1643 of 5351 or 30.7% of
registered Democrats in the 23rd.
2010 overall turnout
2-23&5-23 turnout
of 163 of 1292 reg.
Dems voted--- 12.6%
23rd RD district wide turnout 828
of 5,543 reg. Dems voted –14.9 %
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 2nd&5th
EDs--- 23.3% ( 1292 of 5,543 )
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
1-23&5-23 EDs--- 19.7% ( 163 of 828 )
2008 State senate primary
2-23&5-23 turnout
of 403 of reg. 1219 Dems voted---33.1%
23rd RD district wide turnout 1,734 of 5,425 reg.
Dems voted – 31.9%
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the
2nd&5th EDs---22.5 %
( 1219 of 5,425)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
2-23&5-23 EDs--- 23.2% ( 403 of 1,734)
(scroll down to page 26 of 5 for the McKenzie-Terranova
primary results
(scrool down to pp14-15 of 17 to get the Democratic
registration numbers
2006 overall turnout
2-23&5-23 turnout
of 79 of reg. 1137 Dems voted--- 6.95%
23rd RD district wide turnout of 320 of
5,022 reg. Dems voted –6.4 %
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 2nd&5th
EDs--- 22.6 % ( 1137 of 5,022)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from
2-23&5-23 EDs---24.7% ( 79 of 320)
2004 overall turnout
2-23&5-23 turnout of 186 of 1,161 reg. Dems voted---16.0%
23rd RD district wide turnout 861 of 4,943 reg.
Dems voted – 17.42%
% of voters in the 23rd registered in the 2nd
& 5th EDs---23.5% (1161 of 4,943)
% of votes cast in 23rd that came from 2-23&
5-23 EDs---21.6% ( 186 of 861)
From 2002 to 2010 the 2nd of the 23rd
and the 5th of the 23rd both voted at First Presbyterian
Church and during primaries the Board of Elections provided a combined total of
votes. For the 2012 primary voters in the 2nd ED will continue to
vote at First Presbyterian and voters in the 5th ED will vote at the
Aetna Fire Hall on Thorn Lane of Elkton
Road. Short of purchasing the disc from the elections department of actual
voters and counting them there is no way to separate who voted from which ED,
so I will look at these two EDs as one unit with the realization that eff. 2012 they will no longer be one unit.
The 2012 boundaries
for each district are similar to the 2002
boundaries ,but slightly different.
The southern
boundary remains Nottingham Road for the 2nd ED. The Western
boundary moves from N Country Club drive to Valley Road which appears to be the
Maryland border, as this ED takes in new territory around Hidden Valley Road ,
East Mill Station and West Mill Station. The eastern boundary constricts from
N. College Ave to New London Road. The Northern boundary appears to be a
crooked line just south of Covered Bridge Farms as the old 9th ED
was split between the new 2nd ED
and the new 8th ED.
The 5th of the 23rd continues to
contain Abbotsford, Barksdale Estates , Willliamsburg Village and the
neighborhoods along Barksdale Road near Handloff Park. It lost Briar Lane,
Dallam Road, Old Oak Road and adjoining streets to the new 4th ED
and picked up College Park and Studio Green Apts from what had been the old 6th
ED.
In each of the four elections between 2002 and 2010 this
polling place had turnout within 2.3% (+ or - ) of the district wide turnout
percentage. It also represented within 3.6% (+ or -) of votes compared to it’s
percentage of registered voters within the
rep. district.
This would seem to imply that with 30.7% of the registered
Democrats in the 23rd being within the 2nd & 5th,
that these two EDs will represent
between 27.1% and 34.3% of the votes that will be cast on
September 11th in the 23rd .
