The AARP will be happy to see that in the 19th Senate District the over 50 year old voters cast over 50% of the votes with less than a majority of the registered voters in 2002 and 2006. For candidates this is important because they can maximize their time by contacting registered voters who are more likely to actually vote.
I have looked at the 2002 and 2006 elections because a lot of the people who vote in presidential year elections drop off in off-year elections and it is doubtful they would vote in the special election 8-3-2009, if they would not vote in 2002 and 2006 when the 19th senate seat and multiple statewide offices were on the ballot. The extra voters in 2004 and 2008 are less likely voters in a special election. They are the political equivalent of people who follow their hometown sports team,but only during playoff time.
The 50 and over group had a 13plus greater turnout percentage than the overall voting population in each of these elections.
Here are what the numbers tell us of how the over 50 group outperforms as a voting group:
19th State Senate District
2002
Total registered --21,286
Total votes cast --10,346---overall turnout 48.6%
Voters Age 50-59--registered-3666*********17.2% of registered voters
Voters age 50-59-- votes cast-2162*********20.9 % of total votes cast
Group turnout-59.0%
Voters age 60-65--registered-1444**********6.8% of registered voters
Voters age 60-65 -votes cast-965************9.3 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--66.8%
Voters 65 &over registered-4003***********18.8% of registered voters
Voters 65 &over votes cast-2631************25.4 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--65.7%
Voter50 & over registered--9113********* 42.8% of registered voters
50 and overvotes cast--5758*************55.6 % of votes cast
Voters 50 and over-group turnout-63.2%
2006
Total registered --23,432
Total votes cast --11,245*****************overall turnout--48.0%
Voters age 50-59 registered--4385****************18.7% of registered voters
Voters 50-59 votes cast---2552******************22.7 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--58.2%
Voters 60-65 registered--1936*********************8.3% of registered voters
Voters 60-65 votes cast-1245********************11.1 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--64.3%
Voters 65 & over registered--4738****************20.2% of registered voters
Voters 65 & over votes cast--3014****************26.8 % of total votes cast
Group Turnout--63.6%
Voters50 and over registered--11,059***********47.2% of registered voters
Voters50 and over votes cast--6811*************60.6 % of total votes cast
Voters 50 and over- group Turnout 61.6%
The numbers used are from the 2002 AGP report and 2006 AGP report on the State Election Commissioner's website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Sunday, July 26, 2009
In 2002 voters over 50 years old supplied the majority of votes cast at 14 of 16 polling places in the 19th Senate District
2002 Over 50 vote
1st-35th -total votes cast-1,108
50-59 -- 222 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 361 registered) 20.0% of votes cast
60-65--98 Votes cast ( 64 %turnout within age group- 154 registered) 8.8% of votes cast
65/OVER--291 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group- 446 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-55.1%
2nd-35th -- 1,371
50-59--281 Votes cast ( 55%turnout within age group-507 registered) 20.5% of votes cast
60-65-135 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group- 206 registered) 9.8% of votes cast -
65/OVER--364 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 605 registered)26.5 %of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.8%
3rd-35th -- 280
50-59-- 70 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 25.0% of votes cast
60-65--21 Votes cast ( 62%turnout within age group- 34 registered) 7.5% of votes cast
65/OVER-71Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-110 registered) 25.4% of votes cast -
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.9%
4th-35th -- 848
50-59--208 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group-- 386 registered) 24.5% of votes cast
60-65--80 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 134 registered) 9.4% of votes cast
65/OVER--192 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group- 319 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.5%
6th-35th -- 421
50-59-- 73 Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group- 159 registered) 17.3% of votes cast
60-65-- 47 Votes cast (62 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 11.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--78 Votes cast ( 53%turnout within age group- 148 registered) 18.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-47.0%
7th-35th -- 288
50-59--66 Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group-119 registered) 22.9% of votes cast
60-65-- 35 Votes cast ( 71%turnout within age group- 49 registered) 12.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--67 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group-111 registered) 23.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.4%
4th-36th -- 847
50-59--186 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group- 318 registered) 22.0% of votes cast
60-65--68 Votes cast ( 57%turnout within age group-120 registered) 8.0% of votes cast
65/OVER--197 Votes cast ( 59%turnout within age group-336 registered) 23.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-53.3%
5th-36th - 272
50-59--43 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group- 77 registered)15.8 % of votes cast
60-65--22 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group-38 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER-- 55 Votes cast ( 64%turnout within age group-86 registered)20.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-44.1%
6th-36th --842
50-59--163 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-- 267 registered) 19.4% of votes cast
60-65--73 Votes cast (68 %turnout within age group-107 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--245 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-375 registered) 29.1% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.2%
8th-36th -- 565
50-59--103 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group- 192 registered) 18.2% of votes cast
60-65--60 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-95 registered)10.6 % of votes cast
65/OVER--127 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group- 202registered) 22.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-51.3%
4th-37th-- 251
50-59--50 Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-74 registered)19.9 % of votes cast
60-65--31 Votes cast ( 86%turnout within age group-36 registered)12.4 % of votes cast
65/OVER--60Votes cast (76%turnout within age group-79 registered)23.9 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.2%
5th-37th--774
50-59--176 Votes cast (75%turnout within age group-236 registered)22.7% of votes cast
60-65--67 Votes cast (89 %turnout within age group-75 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER-176 Votes cast(82%turnout within age group-215 registered)22.7% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-54.1%
6th-37th-1,212
50-59--225Votes cast(58 %turnout within age group-391 registered)18.60% of votes cast
60-65--99 Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-147 registered)8.2 % of votes cast
65/OVER-382 Votes cast(69%turnout within age group-551 registered)31.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.3%
8th-37th- 188
50-59-- 51Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 27.1% of votes cast
60-65-- 8 Votes cast (47 %turnout within age group-17 registered)4.3 % of votes cast
65/OVER--39Votes cast (64 %turnout within age group-61 registered)20.7% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-52.1%
1st-39th- 356
50-59--92Votes cast (68%turnout within age group-136 registered)25.8 % of votes cast
60-65--49Votes cast (83%turnout within age group-59 registered)13.8 % of votes cast
65/OVER--85Votes cast(65 %turnout within age group-131 registered)23.9% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-63.5%
3rd-39th- 723
50-59--153Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-260 registered)21.2% of votes cast
60-65--72Votes cast (74%turnout within age group-97 registered) 10.0% of votes cast
65/OVER-202Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-303registered)27.9 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50- 59.1%
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml
1st-35th -total votes cast-1,108
50-59 -- 222 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 361 registered) 20.0% of votes cast
60-65--98 Votes cast ( 64 %turnout within age group- 154 registered) 8.8% of votes cast
65/OVER--291 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group- 446 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-55.1%
2nd-35th -- 1,371
50-59--281 Votes cast ( 55%turnout within age group-507 registered) 20.5% of votes cast
60-65-135 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group- 206 registered) 9.8% of votes cast -
65/OVER--364 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 605 registered)26.5 %of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.8%
3rd-35th -- 280
50-59-- 70 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 25.0% of votes cast
60-65--21 Votes cast ( 62%turnout within age group- 34 registered) 7.5% of votes cast
65/OVER-71Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-110 registered) 25.4% of votes cast -
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.9%
4th-35th -- 848
50-59--208 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group-- 386 registered) 24.5% of votes cast
60-65--80 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 134 registered) 9.4% of votes cast
65/OVER--192 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group- 319 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.5%
6th-35th -- 421
50-59-- 73 Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group- 159 registered) 17.3% of votes cast
60-65-- 47 Votes cast (62 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 11.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--78 Votes cast ( 53%turnout within age group- 148 registered) 18.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-47.0%
7th-35th -- 288
50-59--66 Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group-119 registered) 22.9% of votes cast
60-65-- 35 Votes cast ( 71%turnout within age group- 49 registered) 12.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--67 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group-111 registered) 23.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.4%
4th-36th -- 847
50-59--186 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group- 318 registered) 22.0% of votes cast
60-65--68 Votes cast ( 57%turnout within age group-120 registered) 8.0% of votes cast
65/OVER--197 Votes cast ( 59%turnout within age group-336 registered) 23.3% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-53.3%
5th-36th - 272
50-59--43 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group- 77 registered)15.8 % of votes cast
60-65--22 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group-38 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER-- 55 Votes cast ( 64%turnout within age group-86 registered)20.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-44.1%
6th-36th --842
50-59--163 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-- 267 registered) 19.4% of votes cast
60-65--73 Votes cast (68 %turnout within age group-107 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--245 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-375 registered) 29.1% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.2%
8th-36th -- 565
50-59--103 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group- 192 registered) 18.2% of votes cast
60-65--60 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-95 registered)10.6 % of votes cast
65/OVER--127 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group- 202registered) 22.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-51.3%
4th-37th-- 251
50-59--50 Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-74 registered)19.9 % of votes cast
60-65--31 Votes cast ( 86%turnout within age group-36 registered)12.4 % of votes cast
65/OVER--60Votes cast (76%turnout within age group-79 registered)23.9 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.2%
5th-37th--774
50-59--176 Votes cast (75%turnout within age group-236 registered)22.7% of votes cast
60-65--67 Votes cast (89 %turnout within age group-75 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER-176 Votes cast(82%turnout within age group-215 registered)22.7% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-54.1%
6th-37th-1,212
50-59--225Votes cast(58 %turnout within age group-391 registered)18.60% of votes cast
60-65--99 Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-147 registered)8.2 % of votes cast
65/OVER-382 Votes cast(69%turnout within age group-551 registered)31.5% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.3%
8th-37th- 188
50-59-- 51Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 27.1% of votes cast
60-65-- 8 Votes cast (47 %turnout within age group-17 registered)4.3 % of votes cast
65/OVER--39Votes cast (64 %turnout within age group-61 registered)20.7% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-52.1%
1st-39th- 356
50-59--92Votes cast (68%turnout within age group-136 registered)25.8 % of votes cast
60-65--49Votes cast (83%turnout within age group-59 registered)13.8 % of votes cast
65/OVER--85Votes cast(65 %turnout within age group-131 registered)23.9% of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-63.5%
3rd-39th- 723
50-59--153Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-260 registered)21.2% of votes cast
60-65--72Votes cast (74%turnout within age group-97 registered) 10.0% of votes cast
65/OVER-202Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-303registered)27.9 % of votes cast
% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50- 59.1%
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml
In 2006 turnout by voters over 50 years old provided the majority of votes cast in every election district in the 19th senate district
2006 Over 50 vote
1st-35th—Total Votes cast 1,167
50-59-259 votes cast (55% turnout within age group-467 registered), 22.2% of votes cast
60-65-111 votes cast (58% turnout within age group-193 registered),9.5% of votes cast
65/OVER- 295 votes cast( 58% turnout within age group- 511 registered),25.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.0%
2nd-35th-Total votes cast-1,680
50-59--354 votes cast (56% turnout within age group- 631 registered), 21.1% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast-217 (64% turnout within age group-338 registered),12.9 % of votes cast
65/OVERvotes cast-480 (61% turnout within age group-786 registered),28.6 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-62.6%
3rd-35th-total votes cast-- 283
50-59--votes cast 77(62% turnout within age group-124 registered),27.2% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 36(73% turnout within age group-49 registered),12.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--votes cast-77(65% turnout within age group-119 registered),27.2% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--67.1%
4th-35th--total votes cast--888
50-59--votes cast 222(54% turnout within age group-411 registered),25.0% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 105 (58% turnout within age group-182 registered),11.8% of votes cast
65/OVER-votes cast 218 (60% turnout within age group-361 registered),24.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--61.3%
6th-35th --total votes cast-- 481
50-59 -- 116Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group - 213 registered) 24.1% of votes cast
60-65 --41Votes cast ( 48%turnout within age group-86 registered) 8.5% of votes cast
65/OVER --107Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-187 registered) 22.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-54.8%
7th-35th --288
50-59 --66Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group registered 119) ,22.9% % of votes cast
60-65 --39Votes cast ( 62 %turnout within age group --63registered),10.1 % of votes cast
65/OVER --70Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group--111 registered),24.3 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.3%
4th-36th - 948
50-59 --222 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group--368 registered) 23.4% of votes cast
60-65 -- 118 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group -- 178 registered) 12.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --207 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group--368 registered) 21.8% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.6%
5th-36th --287
50-59 --65 Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
60-65 --21Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 35 registered) 7.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --62 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 103 registered) 21.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-51.5%
6th-36th -total votes 948
50-59 -- 202 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 337 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --103 Votes cast ( 73%turnout within age group- 141 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER -- 290 Votes cast ( 70%turnout within age group- 414 registered) 30.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters 62.8
8th-36th -- 592
50-59 --124 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group-221 registered) 20.9% of votes cast
60-65 --60Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-96 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --139Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group-219 registered) 23.5 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-54.5%
4th-37th --257
50-59 --51 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 84registered) 19.8% of votes cast
60-65 -- 28 Votes cast ( 76%turnout within age group-37 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER --78 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group -108registered) 30.4% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-61.1%
5th-37th --779
50-59--184 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group--256 registered) 23.6% of votes cast
60-65 --91Votes cast (77 %turnout within age group-118 registered) 11.7% of votes cast
65/OVER --192Votes cast ( 77%turnout within age group-250 registered) 24.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-59.9%
6th-37th -- 1,296
50-59 --278 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-456 registered) 21.5% of votes cast
60-65 --131Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-192 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --423Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-636 registered) 32.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-64.2%
8th-37th -- 197
50-59 --47 Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-82 registered) 23.9% of votes cast
60-65 --16Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group-35 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --48Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-81 registered)24.4 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-56.4%
1st-39th --390
50-59 --83Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-137 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --48 Votes cast (73 %turnout within age group-66 registered) 12.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --111Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group-168 registered) 28.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-62.1%
3rd-39th -- 767
50-59 --202 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group--313 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
60-65 -- 80 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-127 registered) 10.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --217 Votes cast ( 69%turnout within age group -316registered) 28.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-65.0%
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
1st-35th—Total Votes cast 1,167
50-59-259 votes cast (55% turnout within age group-467 registered), 22.2% of votes cast
60-65-111 votes cast (58% turnout within age group-193 registered),9.5% of votes cast
65/OVER- 295 votes cast( 58% turnout within age group- 511 registered),25.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.0%
2nd-35th-Total votes cast-1,680
50-59--354 votes cast (56% turnout within age group- 631 registered), 21.1% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast-217 (64% turnout within age group-338 registered),12.9 % of votes cast
65/OVERvotes cast-480 (61% turnout within age group-786 registered),28.6 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-62.6%
3rd-35th-total votes cast-- 283
50-59--votes cast 77(62% turnout within age group-124 registered),27.2% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 36(73% turnout within age group-49 registered),12.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--votes cast-77(65% turnout within age group-119 registered),27.2% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--67.1%
4th-35th--total votes cast--888
50-59--votes cast 222(54% turnout within age group-411 registered),25.0% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 105 (58% turnout within age group-182 registered),11.8% of votes cast
65/OVER-votes cast 218 (60% turnout within age group-361 registered),24.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--61.3%
6th-35th --total votes cast-- 481
50-59 -- 116Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group - 213 registered) 24.1% of votes cast
60-65 --41Votes cast ( 48%turnout within age group-86 registered) 8.5% of votes cast
65/OVER --107Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-187 registered) 22.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-54.8%
7th-35th --288
50-59 --66Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group registered 119) ,22.9% % of votes cast
60-65 --39Votes cast ( 62 %turnout within age group --63registered),10.1 % of votes cast
65/OVER --70Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group--111 registered),24.3 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.3%
4th-36th - 948
50-59 --222 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group--368 registered) 23.4% of votes cast
60-65 -- 118 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group -- 178 registered) 12.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --207 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group--368 registered) 21.8% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.6%
5th-36th --287
50-59 --65 Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
60-65 --21Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 35 registered) 7.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --62 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 103 registered) 21.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-51.5%
6th-36th -total votes 948
50-59 -- 202 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 337 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --103 Votes cast ( 73%turnout within age group- 141 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER -- 290 Votes cast ( 70%turnout within age group- 414 registered) 30.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters 62.8
8th-36th -- 592
50-59 --124 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group-221 registered) 20.9% of votes cast
60-65 --60Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-96 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --139Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group-219 registered) 23.5 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-54.5%
4th-37th --257
50-59 --51 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 84registered) 19.8% of votes cast
60-65 -- 28 Votes cast ( 76%turnout within age group-37 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER --78 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group -108registered) 30.4% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-61.1%
5th-37th --779
50-59--184 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group--256 registered) 23.6% of votes cast
60-65 --91Votes cast (77 %turnout within age group-118 registered) 11.7% of votes cast
65/OVER --192Votes cast ( 77%turnout within age group-250 registered) 24.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-59.9%
6th-37th -- 1,296
50-59 --278 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-456 registered) 21.5% of votes cast
60-65 --131Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-192 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --423Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-636 registered) 32.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-64.2%
8th-37th -- 197
50-59 --47 Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-82 registered) 23.9% of votes cast
60-65 --16Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group-35 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --48Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-81 registered)24.4 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-56.4%
1st-39th --390
50-59 --83Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-137 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --48 Votes cast (73 %turnout within age group-66 registered) 12.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --111Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group-168 registered) 28.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-62.1%
3rd-39th -- 767
50-59 --202 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group--313 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
60-65 -- 80 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-127 registered) 10.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --217 Votes cast ( 69%turnout within age group -316registered) 28.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-65.0%
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
Saturday, July 25, 2009
A good idea of travel time from various locations in the 19th Senate District to the State Fair
Below are mileage and travel times from Mapquest for the distance between several of the polling places and the State Fair. If proximity impacts attendance, I would say folks in the 35th (Greenwood & Bridgeville) might be more likely to attend the State Fair than their neighbors in the 37th (Georgetown) and the 39th (Seaford).The 36th includes areas close to the Fair, like Lincoln, and and Milton which is twice as far form the Fair as Lincoln.
Bridgeville Fire Hall to State Fair
15 minutes, 12.24 miles
Greenwood Fire Hall to State Fair
8 minutes, 7.56 miles
Morris Early Learning Center (Lincoln) to State Fair
19 minutes, 12.68 miles
Ellendale Fire Hall to State Fair
22 minutes, 16.42 miles
Mariner Middle School (Milton) to State Fair
36 minutes, 24.61 miles
Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
32 minutes, 25.8 miles
North Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
29 minutes, 23.46 miles
Seaford Middle School to State Fair
23 minutes, 19.36 miles
http://www.mapquest.com/
Bridgeville Fire Hall to State Fair
15 minutes, 12.24 miles
Greenwood Fire Hall to State Fair
8 minutes, 7.56 miles
Morris Early Learning Center (Lincoln) to State Fair
19 minutes, 12.68 miles
Ellendale Fire Hall to State Fair
22 minutes, 16.42 miles
Mariner Middle School (Milton) to State Fair
36 minutes, 24.61 miles
Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
32 minutes, 25.8 miles
North Georgetown Elementary School to State Fair
29 minutes, 23.46 miles
Seaford Middle School to State Fair
23 minutes, 19.36 miles
http://www.mapquest.com/
Friday, July 24, 2009
Some Thought on State Fair and the Special Election
A News-Journal article about the scheduling of the 19th State Senate District Special Election mentioned the Delaware State Fair.
Originally, I had thought it might create a puzzle for candidates who planned to do door-to-door campaigning, since they might miss a lot of consitituents who would be at the Fair. Looking over the daily schedule I am betting they could do needed campaigning at the Fair during mid-day and be back in the district by 5:30 pm to get in a couple hours of door-to-door campaigning. The events in the evening (music concerts and comedians) are less amenable to casual conversing and walking around that would facilitate the type of interaction a candidate might like . Most of the events that are theme related on the themed days ("seniors day", "armed forces day" and "kids day") are before 5: 00 pm from what I observed in scanning briefly over the schedule.
I was afraid it created and "either/or" situation,but motivated candidates could spend s few hours at the Fair in the afternoon and still have a couple hours to visit constituents door-to-door.
If you have any doubts the Fair is a big event , here are some numbers and information from the State Fair website.
Over 300,000 attendees over the course of ten days.
Friday, July 24 - Saturday, August 1: 8:00 AM - 11:00 PM.Wade Shows Midway opens at 1:00 PM.
Here is an excerpt from the 7-30-2008 press release about last year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, William J. DiMondi, “attendance numbers after the first seven days were down at one point as much as 18% compared to 2007 due primarily to weather. After the break in the weather early Thursday, we came back strong, finishing the Fair with an attendance of 265,610 which is down only 4% from the Fair’s historic rolling 10-year average attendance.” Overall, attendance was down approximately 10% from 2007.
From the 7-31-2007 press release about that year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, Dennis Hazzard, the attendance for the 2007 event was impacted by several variables. The comfortable weather, exciting carnival rides, great food, and an all-star concert lineup made for a record setting year. The Fair closed the gates on the 2007 Fair with an overall attendance of 300,463—representing an increase from 2006 of nearly 3%.
http://www.delawarestatefair.com/fair/
Originally, I had thought it might create a puzzle for candidates who planned to do door-to-door campaigning, since they might miss a lot of consitituents who would be at the Fair. Looking over the daily schedule I am betting they could do needed campaigning at the Fair during mid-day and be back in the district by 5:30 pm to get in a couple hours of door-to-door campaigning. The events in the evening (music concerts and comedians) are less amenable to casual conversing and walking around that would facilitate the type of interaction a candidate might like . Most of the events that are theme related on the themed days ("seniors day", "armed forces day" and "kids day") are before 5: 00 pm from what I observed in scanning briefly over the schedule.
I was afraid it created and "either/or" situation,but motivated candidates could spend s few hours at the Fair in the afternoon and still have a couple hours to visit constituents door-to-door.
If you have any doubts the Fair is a big event , here are some numbers and information from the State Fair website.
Over 300,000 attendees over the course of ten days.
Friday, July 24 - Saturday, August 1: 8:00 AM - 11:00 PM.Wade Shows Midway opens at 1:00 PM.
Here is an excerpt from the 7-30-2008 press release about last year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, William J. DiMondi, “attendance numbers after the first seven days were down at one point as much as 18% compared to 2007 due primarily to weather. After the break in the weather early Thursday, we came back strong, finishing the Fair with an attendance of 265,610 which is down only 4% from the Fair’s historic rolling 10-year average attendance.” Overall, attendance was down approximately 10% from 2007.
From the 7-31-2007 press release about that year’s attendance:
According to the Fair’s general manager, Dennis Hazzard, the attendance for the 2007 event was impacted by several variables. The comfortable weather, exciting carnival rides, great food, and an all-star concert lineup made for a record setting year. The Fair closed the gates on the 2007 Fair with an overall attendance of 300,463—representing an increase from 2006 of nearly 3%.
http://www.delawarestatefair.com/fair/
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
I don't know who will win in the 19th special election,but here's is where a majority of the votes might come from ,if history repeats itself
Special elections are all about turnout and usual patterns can be disrupted.Over the course of the last four election cycles (2002, 2004 ,2006 & 2008) since the current boundaries of the 19th State Senate District were established, a majority of the votes have come from less than a majority of the election districts. We won't know until the evening of August 3,2009 whether this pattern continues ,but below are where the majority of votes have come from in the 19th State Senate District since 2002 .
The seven election districts below (out of a total of 16 election districts) have produced between 67% and 69% of the districts votes cast in each of the elections since 2002.
These districts comprise 18,255 voters out of the 25829 registered in the 19th State Senate District. These districts make up 70.7% of the registered voters.
Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 1074 voted-- 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,927 voted---10.3% of total district turnout
2006***982 voted—10.6% of total district turnout
2008***1701 voted—11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 2821---10.9% of district total
BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 1371voted—13.6% of total district turnout
2004***2,193 voted---14.5% of total district turnout
2006***1419 voted—15.3% of total district turnout
2008***3,109 voted—16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total
DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 813voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2004***1,300 voted---8.6% of total district turnout
2006***752 voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2008***1,582 voted—8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total
36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 825voted—8.2% of total district turnout
2004***1,318 voted---8.7% of total district turnout
2006***784 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,612 voted—8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total
MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 803voted—8.0% of total district turnout
2004***1,169 voted---7.7% of total district turnout
2006***779 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,630 voted—8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total
37th RD
6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 1174voted—11.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,596 voted---10.5% of total district turnout
2006***1052voted—11.3% of total district turnout
2008***1,838 voted—9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total
39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39
2002*** 687voted—6.8% of total district turnout
2004***1,038 voted---6.8% of total district turnout
2006***591voted—6.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,134 voted—6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total
Here are the combined numbers for these seven election districts since 2002:
2002*** 6747voted—67.1% of total district turnout of 10,052
2004***10,315voted---68.0% of total district turnout of 15,161
2006***6359voted—68.4% of total district turnout of 9294
2008***12,832voted—68.8% of total district turnout of 18,656
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 –18,255---70.7% of district total
Total Voter Registration for the 19th State Senate District as of 07-01-2009
25,829
from the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml
Total turnout 19th State Senate District
2002*****10,052
2004*****15,161
2006*****9294
2008*****18,656
In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.2008http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html2004
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF
The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive2006
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml
2002
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml
The seven election districts below (out of a total of 16 election districts) have produced between 67% and 69% of the districts votes cast in each of the elections since 2002.
These districts comprise 18,255 voters out of the 25829 registered in the 19th State Senate District. These districts make up 70.7% of the registered voters.
Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 1074 voted-- 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,927 voted---10.3% of total district turnout
2006***982 voted—10.6% of total district turnout
2008***1701 voted—11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 2821---10.9% of district total
BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 1371voted—13.6% of total district turnout
2004***2,193 voted---14.5% of total district turnout
2006***1419 voted—15.3% of total district turnout
2008***3,109 voted—16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total
DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 813voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2004***1,300 voted---8.6% of total district turnout
2006***752 voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2008***1,582 voted—8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total
36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 825voted—8.2% of total district turnout
2004***1,318 voted---8.7% of total district turnout
2006***784 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,612 voted—8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total
MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 803voted—8.0% of total district turnout
2004***1,169 voted---7.7% of total district turnout
2006***779 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,630 voted—8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total
37th RD
6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 1174voted—11.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,596 voted---10.5% of total district turnout
2006***1052voted—11.3% of total district turnout
2008***1,838 voted—9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total
39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39
2002*** 687voted—6.8% of total district turnout
2004***1,038 voted---6.8% of total district turnout
2006***591voted—6.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,134 voted—6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total
Here are the combined numbers for these seven election districts since 2002:
2002*** 6747voted—67.1% of total district turnout of 10,052
2004***10,315voted---68.0% of total district turnout of 15,161
2006***6359voted—68.4% of total district turnout of 9294
2008***12,832voted—68.8% of total district turnout of 18,656
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 –18,255---70.7% of district total
Total Voter Registration for the 19th State Senate District as of 07-01-2009
25,829
from the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml
Total turnout 19th State Senate District
2002*****10,052
2004*****15,161
2006*****9294
2008*****18,656
In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.2008http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html2004
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF
The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive2006
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml
2002
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Could A Republican Farther to the Right defeat Mike Castle in a primary?
Mike Castle has been in statewide office since 1976 when he was elected Lt Governor. He has won statewide election when Republican Pete DuPont was elected Governor in 1976 and 1980 and he has been elected statewide during each of the elections that saw the election Delaware's 3 Democratic governors who have been elected since Pete Dupont left office in 1984. He has been on the ballot when Democrats were elected president (Carter, Clinton and Obama ) and he has been on the ballot when Republicans were elected president (Reagan, George HW Bush and George W Bush). He has been victoriuos each time.
His last serious interparty struggle was in 1992. He receieved 56% of the vote in a three way contest,but what made that contest different from a potential primary against a party outsider was that 30% of the primary vote went to Janet Rzewnicki, a three term state treasurer, who had won statewide in 1982,1986 & 1990. Rzewnicki would go on to be re-elected in 1994 for another term as treasurer after losing to Tom Carper in 1992 for Governor and before losing as treasurer to Jack Markell in 1998.
To unseat Castle someone will take on someone who has decades long name recognition and $861,201 on hand as of 6-30-2009 according to the Federal Election Commission. No other Republican has filed a campaign finance report for the 2010 election cycle as of 6-30-2009.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
Conservatives in Delaware may be buoyed by the success of Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania,who lost a close GOP primary 5 years ago to Arlen Specter.Toomey can reasonably be considered to be a prime reason Specter became a Democrat,since it is possible Specter may have lost a rematch in 2010. Toomey ,however, was a three term congressman and therefore has a political track record .
From 2005-2009 he served as President of the Club for Growth , a group whose website states it advocates lower taxes, less government and expansion of free trade.This position offered him a forum to raise issues and expand his potential donor pool .The club claims to be a national network of thousands of Americans. I am not sure if any GOP opposition planning to face Castle has such a network behind them as strongly as this group might be behind him.
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/
http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/biography/
Toomey also has a track record for raising large sums of money. He raised $5, 108, 291 in 2004 in his unsuccessful bid against Specter. Toomey was outspent 4-1 in 2004 but came within 2% of defeating Specter in the Republican primary
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
Neither Christine O’Donnell nor Mike Protack, two Republican primary candidates who ran against organization candidates in the two recent statewide elections, has ever held office. No current or recent office holders have been publicly named as potential GOP opponents for Castle. For either O’Donnell or Protack to come close to only being outspent 4-1 in a potential race with Castle, they need to substantially increase their fundraising efforts. Any other Republican attempting such a run would be starting an insurgency campaign with less than 14 months to organize , fund and implement an overthrow of one of the winningest politicians in Delaware history from within his own party.
According to the most recent quarterly filing to the FEC for her on the FEC website which was the 1st quarter filing submitted in April 2009, O’Donnell had $2,462.15 on hand and $24,298.64 in outstanding debts and obligations.
This was as Friends of Christine O’Donnell 08
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecgifpdf2/
As best I can tell she spent about $63,629 on her 2006 Senate campaign
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
and
$116,050 on her unsuccessful 2008 US Senate run against Joe Biden
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
From what I can tell Protack spent $86,683 in 2006 on the 3 way primary with O’Donnell and Jan Ting
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
and
Mike Protack ran an unsuccessful race against Bill Lee in 2008 for the Republican nomination for Governor.
Here is a snapshot of his finances for 2008. He had $2,092.05 on hand eff 12-31-2007.
TOTAL RECEIPTS were reported as $26,670.00 between 1-1-2008 and 30 days report before Sept 2008 primary. In the 8 day report before Sept 2008 primary an additional $1,910.00 in receipts was reported.
http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/Home?openform
Within the Delaware Republican Party I do not currently see anyone with enough of a track record and financial base to take Castle on with a strong likelihood of success.
His last serious interparty struggle was in 1992. He receieved 56% of the vote in a three way contest,but what made that contest different from a potential primary against a party outsider was that 30% of the primary vote went to Janet Rzewnicki, a three term state treasurer, who had won statewide in 1982,1986 & 1990. Rzewnicki would go on to be re-elected in 1994 for another term as treasurer after losing to Tom Carper in 1992 for Governor and before losing as treasurer to Jack Markell in 1998.
To unseat Castle someone will take on someone who has decades long name recognition and $861,201 on hand as of 6-30-2009 according to the Federal Election Commission. No other Republican has filed a campaign finance report for the 2010 election cycle as of 6-30-2009.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
Conservatives in Delaware may be buoyed by the success of Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania,who lost a close GOP primary 5 years ago to Arlen Specter.Toomey can reasonably be considered to be a prime reason Specter became a Democrat,since it is possible Specter may have lost a rematch in 2010. Toomey ,however, was a three term congressman and therefore has a political track record .
From 2005-2009 he served as President of the Club for Growth , a group whose website states it advocates lower taxes, less government and expansion of free trade.This position offered him a forum to raise issues and expand his potential donor pool .The club claims to be a national network of thousands of Americans. I am not sure if any GOP opposition planning to face Castle has such a network behind them as strongly as this group might be behind him.
http://www.clubforgrowth.org/
http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/biography/
Toomey also has a track record for raising large sums of money. He raised $5, 108, 291 in 2004 in his unsuccessful bid against Specter. Toomey was outspent 4-1 in 2004 but came within 2% of defeating Specter in the Republican primary
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
Neither Christine O’Donnell nor Mike Protack, two Republican primary candidates who ran against organization candidates in the two recent statewide elections, has ever held office. No current or recent office holders have been publicly named as potential GOP opponents for Castle. For either O’Donnell or Protack to come close to only being outspent 4-1 in a potential race with Castle, they need to substantially increase their fundraising efforts. Any other Republican attempting such a run would be starting an insurgency campaign with less than 14 months to organize , fund and implement an overthrow of one of the winningest politicians in Delaware history from within his own party.
According to the most recent quarterly filing to the FEC for her on the FEC website which was the 1st quarter filing submitted in April 2009, O’Donnell had $2,462.15 on hand and $24,298.64 in outstanding debts and obligations.
This was as Friends of Christine O’Donnell 08
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecgifpdf2/
As best I can tell she spent about $63,629 on her 2006 Senate campaign
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
and
$116,050 on her unsuccessful 2008 US Senate run against Joe Biden
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
From what I can tell Protack spent $86,683 in 2006 on the 3 way primary with O’Donnell and Jan Ting
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/
and
Mike Protack ran an unsuccessful race against Bill Lee in 2008 for the Republican nomination for Governor.
Here is a snapshot of his finances for 2008. He had $2,092.05 on hand eff 12-31-2007.
TOTAL RECEIPTS were reported as $26,670.00 between 1-1-2008 and 30 days report before Sept 2008 primary. In the 8 day report before Sept 2008 primary an additional $1,910.00 in receipts was reported.
http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/Home?openform
Within the Delaware Republican Party I do not currently see anyone with enough of a track record and financial base to take Castle on with a strong likelihood of success.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
In case you are doing political comparison shopping in the 19th State Senate race.
Here is a profile of each of the candidates from the 7-12-2009 Cape Gazette:
http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/200907/sendist19_10.html
Here are the websites for each candidate ( in alphabetical order of the parties involved):
The website for Polly Adams Mervine, Democratic candidate:
http://pollyforsenate.com/
I could not locate a website for Matthew Opaliski, Independent Party of Delaware, but here is a link to the party website with a contact number for the party if you want more information:
http://www.independentpartyofdelaware.org/
The website for Wendy Jones, Libertarian candidate :
http://www.delawareliberty.com/
Here is Republican State Rep Joe Booth’s website:
http://www.repjoebooth.com/
http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/200907/sendist19_10.html
Here are the websites for each candidate ( in alphabetical order of the parties involved):
The website for Polly Adams Mervine, Democratic candidate:
http://pollyforsenate.com/
I could not locate a website for Matthew Opaliski, Independent Party of Delaware, but here is a link to the party website with a contact number for the party if you want more information:
http://www.independentpartyofdelaware.org/
The website for Wendy Jones, Libertarian candidate :
http://www.delawareliberty.com/
Here is Republican State Rep Joe Booth’s website:
http://www.repjoebooth.com/
Sunday, July 12, 2009
What Impact have 3rd Parties had on recent special election outcomes?
While the introduction of third party candidates may offer voters additional options to the two major parties and create more election possibilities in theory , can they actually impact the outcome of a legislative special election in Delaware? One measurement is whether the third party vote total exceeds the margin of victory. Did the third party candidate (or candidates) get more votes than the difference between the winner and loser among the two major parties.
Maybe looking at special elections over the last 15 years can give some insight. There have been twelve special elections held in Delaware since 1994. Is it an admittedly small sample to make assumptions from,but it is the only measurable data we have. In five contests there were only two candidates, one Republican and one Democrat. In five other contests, there was at least one third party candidate and the third party vote total did not exceed the margin of victory,so did not impact the countable outcome.
In two other races, we can not be sure the third party votes changed the final outcome, but they did exceed the margin of victory and could have been a deciding factor in the determination of the winner. In the 5th Levy Court race total turnout was only 1223 votes so it is possible that third party candidate Kevin McCarthy may have reached his saturation point at the 207 votes he received. If that is the case any increase in turnout would have diminished his impact.
The 41st state rep race can not happen again because John Atkins received 14% as a write-in candidate and write-in candidacies have been banned since then ( see Delaware Code link below). Candidates must make known their intention to run as a write-in which I am assuming take's some of the perceived urgency out of a write-in campaign and inherently makes them less of an outsider tool. It is doubtful anyone other than John Atkins,who has represented the area from both major parties, in the 41st could have pulled this off in an area as big as a state rep district, although Newark City Council member Jerry Clifton won a write-in campaign in a smaller district.
John Burton's Independent Party candidacy also exceeded the margin of victory, making this the only race in which two nonmajor party candidates each had vote totals that exceeded the margin of victory.
These races indicate that for a third party candidate to impact the election outcome the two major party candidates have to be fairly close in votes.
In the 19th Senate District I doubt the two nonmjaor party candidates will have enough combined votes to exceed the margin of victory. Turnout is the central issue in a special election because there are no other races to draw voters out. The Democrats and Republicans can more accurately locate party loyalists for the get-out-the-vote from prior voting patterns in party primaries. How do the Libertarians and Independent Party candidates know who they should target? Because someone is not a D or R, does not mean they espouse any particular philosphy or voting pattern.Money will likely be more plentiful for the two major parties for promoting their messages. With less money and less structured organization I assume less results.
2009
New Castle County 5th council-no 3rd party candidate
2008
6th state rep dist-no 3rd party candidate
2007
There were five races, two did not have a 3rd party candidate. In the 14th Senate race Joanne Christian ran as the Republican candidate and as the candidate of the Independent Party of Delaware, but her third party votes did not exceed her loss margin as the Republican candidate. In the 41 st Rep District race the Independent Party of Delaware candidate did have a vote total ,but the nonmajor party candidate whose vote total most exceeded the margin of victory was a write-in candidate ---John Atkins who had resigned as a Republican legislator and has since been elected to serve the district as a Democrat. In the 5th Levy Court District in Kent County Kevin McCarthy's 207 votes or 16.9% more than exceeded the 5% margin of victory.
2001
There was one race with a third party candidate who vote total did not near the margin of victory.
1997
There were two special elections. One had a third party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the victory margin. In the other contest there was no 3rd party candidate
1995
One contest with a 3rd party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory.
1994
There was one race which had a third party candidate,whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory
The upcoming special election in teh 19th senate district is the second special election of 2009. In the first one there was no third party candidate. Election Date: 02/19/09
Voter Turnout = 5%
COUNTY COUNCIL DISTRICT 5
DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELISA C. DILLER --808 --59 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY JAMES MOULTHROP --545 --40 . 3 %
In 2008 there was one special election and there was no third party candidate
Election Date: 12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
12 of 12 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY MICHAEL P. MIGLIORE --1467 --48 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY THOMAS H. KOVACH --1540 --51 . 2 %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2007 there were five special elections
Election Date: 01/20/07
Turnout = 8%
5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT
DEMOCRATIC PARTY GEORGE SWEENEY --477 --39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY W. G. EDMANSON II-- 539-- 44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL KEVIN MCCARTHY-- 207-- 16 . 9 %
SPECIAL 04/14/07
7th Representative District
Bryon Short Democrat 2,275
James Bowers Republican 2,048
__________________________________________________________________________
Special Election - 05/05/2007
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 41
TOTAL
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)
1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)
1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)
225
JOHN ADKINS (WRITE-IN)
584
ROBERT JOHNSON (WRITE-IN)
1
BRUCE COLLUM (WRITE-IN)
1
HENRY MC GOUL (WRITE-IN)
.
2
G.G. MESSICK (WRITE-IN)
1
GREG HASTINGS (WRITE-IN)
1
UNOFFICIAL OFFICE TOTAL
4161
14TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 3, 2007
ENNIS BRUCE C DEMOCRATIC 4,272
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M REPUBLICAN 1,704
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M IND OF DEL 309
28th Rep District12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout
_____________________________________________
2ND REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
January 20, 2001
HAZEL D. PLANT (D) 846
BEATRICE PATTON CARROLL (R) 453
ROBERT E. BROWN (L) 44
______________________________________________
9TH REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 13, 1997
J. CHRISTOPHER ROBERTS (D) 1,758
RICHARD C. CATHCART (R) 1,966
12TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 12, 1997
DEBORAH L. CUOMO (D) 485
DORINDA A. CONNOR (R) 2,554
RICHARK K. TRUBEY (L) 64
__________________________________________________
1ST REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
August 12, 1995
DENNIS WILLIAMS (D) 1,757
KAREN J. MILLER (R) 879
LAWRENCE SULLIVAN (L)122
_________________________________________________
2ND SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 16, 1994
HERMAN M. HOLLOWAY, JR. (D) 1,036
MARGARET ROSE HENRY (R) 1,487
SAMUEL GUY (K) 225
Sources on election results:
Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/
and
the New Castle County Board of Elections website:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml#general
Here is an excerpt from the relevant section of the Delaware Code regarding write-in candidates:
TITLE 15
Elections
Primary Elections and Nominations of Candidates
CHAPTER 34. WRITE-IN CANDIDATES
§ 3402. Write-in candidates for a general election.
(a) Superior Court shall only count a write-in vote for a person who has declared himself or herself a write-in candidate for the office for which that person was written-in in accordance with this chapter. Superior Court shall count a write-in vote for a candidate on a general or special election ballot if the write-in vote is for the office for which the person is a candidate.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title15/c034/index.shtml
Maybe looking at special elections over the last 15 years can give some insight. There have been twelve special elections held in Delaware since 1994. Is it an admittedly small sample to make assumptions from,but it is the only measurable data we have. In five contests there were only two candidates, one Republican and one Democrat. In five other contests, there was at least one third party candidate and the third party vote total did not exceed the margin of victory,so did not impact the countable outcome.
In two other races, we can not be sure the third party votes changed the final outcome, but they did exceed the margin of victory and could have been a deciding factor in the determination of the winner. In the 5th Levy Court race total turnout was only 1223 votes so it is possible that third party candidate Kevin McCarthy may have reached his saturation point at the 207 votes he received. If that is the case any increase in turnout would have diminished his impact.
The 41st state rep race can not happen again because John Atkins received 14% as a write-in candidate and write-in candidacies have been banned since then ( see Delaware Code link below). Candidates must make known their intention to run as a write-in which I am assuming take's some of the perceived urgency out of a write-in campaign and inherently makes them less of an outsider tool. It is doubtful anyone other than John Atkins,who has represented the area from both major parties, in the 41st could have pulled this off in an area as big as a state rep district, although Newark City Council member Jerry Clifton won a write-in campaign in a smaller district.
John Burton's Independent Party candidacy also exceeded the margin of victory, making this the only race in which two nonmajor party candidates each had vote totals that exceeded the margin of victory.
These races indicate that for a third party candidate to impact the election outcome the two major party candidates have to be fairly close in votes.
In the 19th Senate District I doubt the two nonmjaor party candidates will have enough combined votes to exceed the margin of victory. Turnout is the central issue in a special election because there are no other races to draw voters out. The Democrats and Republicans can more accurately locate party loyalists for the get-out-the-vote from prior voting patterns in party primaries. How do the Libertarians and Independent Party candidates know who they should target? Because someone is not a D or R, does not mean they espouse any particular philosphy or voting pattern.Money will likely be more plentiful for the two major parties for promoting their messages. With less money and less structured organization I assume less results.
2009
New Castle County 5th council-no 3rd party candidate
2008
6th state rep dist-no 3rd party candidate
2007
There were five races, two did not have a 3rd party candidate. In the 14th Senate race Joanne Christian ran as the Republican candidate and as the candidate of the Independent Party of Delaware, but her third party votes did not exceed her loss margin as the Republican candidate. In the 41 st Rep District race the Independent Party of Delaware candidate did have a vote total ,but the nonmajor party candidate whose vote total most exceeded the margin of victory was a write-in candidate ---John Atkins who had resigned as a Republican legislator and has since been elected to serve the district as a Democrat. In the 5th Levy Court District in Kent County Kevin McCarthy's 207 votes or 16.9% more than exceeded the 5% margin of victory.
2001
There was one race with a third party candidate who vote total did not near the margin of victory.
1997
There were two special elections. One had a third party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the victory margin. In the other contest there was no 3rd party candidate
1995
One contest with a 3rd party candidate whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory.
1994
There was one race which had a third party candidate,whose vote total did not exceed the margin of victory
The upcoming special election in teh 19th senate district is the second special election of 2009. In the first one there was no third party candidate. Election Date: 02/19/09
Voter Turnout = 5%
COUNTY COUNCIL DISTRICT 5
DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELISA C. DILLER --808 --59 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY JAMES MOULTHROP --545 --40 . 3 %
In 2008 there was one special election and there was no third party candidate
Election Date: 12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
12 of 12 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY MICHAEL P. MIGLIORE --1467 --48 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY THOMAS H. KOVACH --1540 --51 . 2 %
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2007 there were five special elections
Election Date: 01/20/07
Turnout = 8%
5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT
DEMOCRATIC PARTY GEORGE SWEENEY --477 --39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY W. G. EDMANSON II-- 539-- 44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL KEVIN MCCARTHY-- 207-- 16 . 9 %
SPECIAL 04/14/07
7th Representative District
Bryon Short Democrat 2,275
James Bowers Republican 2,048
__________________________________________________________________________
Special Election - 05/05/2007
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 41
TOTAL
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)
1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)
1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)
225
JOHN ADKINS (WRITE-IN)
584
ROBERT JOHNSON (WRITE-IN)
1
BRUCE COLLUM (WRITE-IN)
1
HENRY MC GOUL (WRITE-IN)
.
2
G.G. MESSICK (WRITE-IN)
1
GREG HASTINGS (WRITE-IN)
1
UNOFFICIAL OFFICE TOTAL
4161
14TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 3, 2007
ENNIS BRUCE C DEMOCRATIC 4,272
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M REPUBLICAN 1,704
CHRISTIAN JOANNE M IND OF DEL 309
28th Rep District12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout
_____________________________________________
2ND REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
January 20, 2001
HAZEL D. PLANT (D) 846
BEATRICE PATTON CARROLL (R) 453
ROBERT E. BROWN (L) 44
______________________________________________
9TH REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
November 13, 1997
J. CHRISTOPHER ROBERTS (D) 1,758
RICHARD C. CATHCART (R) 1,966
12TH SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 12, 1997
DEBORAH L. CUOMO (D) 485
DORINDA A. CONNOR (R) 2,554
RICHARK K. TRUBEY (L) 64
__________________________________________________
1ST REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
August 12, 1995
DENNIS WILLIAMS (D) 1,757
KAREN J. MILLER (R) 879
LAWRENCE SULLIVAN (L)122
_________________________________________________
2ND SENATE DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION
April 16, 1994
HERMAN M. HOLLOWAY, JR. (D) 1,036
MARGARET ROSE HENRY (R) 1,487
SAMUEL GUY (K) 225
Sources on election results:
Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/
and
the New Castle County Board of Elections website:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml#general
Here is an excerpt from the relevant section of the Delaware Code regarding write-in candidates:
TITLE 15
Elections
Primary Elections and Nominations of Candidates
CHAPTER 34. WRITE-IN CANDIDATES
§ 3402. Write-in candidates for a general election.
(a) Superior Court shall only count a write-in vote for a person who has declared himself or herself a write-in candidate for the office for which that person was written-in in accordance with this chapter. Superior Court shall count a write-in vote for a candidate on a general or special election ballot if the write-in vote is for the office for which the person is a candidate.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title15/c034/index.shtml
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
3 advantages State Rep Joe Booth has in the 8-3-09 special election in the 19th State Senate district. Advantages ,but not guarantees for success.
State Rep Joe Booth is the Republican candidate in the 19th State Senate District . The senate district has a Democratic voter registration, but all four state rep districts which overlap with the 19th Senate District are represented by Republicans. The previously nominated Democrat , Eddy Parker, has stepped down and a new candidate is likely within the days.
Whoever is nominated as Democratic candidate faces at least three hurdles in the race with Joe Booth. Each of these could be a double edged sword for Booth , so no one has a lock on this contest.
(1) Joe Booth has a record to run on. As mayor of Georgetown and later as State Representative, he can point to decisions he has made or been part of which have impacted the lives of voters. Of course, if his opponent can point to circumstances where he can be portrayed as out of touch with the constituents of the 19th State Senate District, this may not be as much of an advantage for Booth.
Depending on the Democratic candidate they may have their own record to run on or , if they have not had previous public service, may be able to present themselves as a fresh approach compared to Booth ,who has been in public service for several years.
(2) Booth has a proven ability to raise money which will be needed to get a campaign message out in a matter of weeks . He also may have already had a fair amount on hand prior to his senate candidacy nomination.
State Rep Joe Booth’s 12-31-2008 end of year balance was $35,541.47. Between 10-28-2008 and 12-31-2008 he raised $4,800.00. His 8 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $1,775.00 between 10/08/2008 and 10/27/2008. His 30 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $20,950.00 between 01/01/2008 and 10/05/2008.
His 2007 end of year report indicates Booth’s committee raised $5,100.00 between 01/01/2007 and 12/31/2007.
http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/ByCandidate?OpenView&Start=2.28&Count=30&Expand=2#2
If you have difficulty accessing campaign finance from the link above , try this one and click on “view Reports Online”:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml
It doesn’t mean the Democratic candidate can not raise a large amount of money in a short period of time, but it seems to mean that some time that might be used for voter contact will be used on donor contact by both the candidate and her/ his supporters.
(3) As a state representative in the middle of a term, Booth represents a win-win for campaign donors. If they donate and he wins, they supported a victorious state senator. If they support him and he loses , they supported someone who continues to have a vote in Legislative Hall as a state representative.
A 2007 Special Election demonstrates my point.
In the 14th State Senate special election held on November 3, 2007
Republican Joanne Christian’s 8 day filing from 9-30-2007 to 10-26-2007
reported Total Receipts of $22,350
*********************************************************************
Then Democratic State Rep. Bruce Ennis , who won the seat vacated by the death of State Sen Jim Vaughn, also submitted an 8 day filing from 9-27-2007 to 10-26-2007
He reported Total receipts of $42,915.00.
I can not be sure of the motives of anyone’s contributions ,but I can see that the outcome of supporting Ennis, who raised almost twice as much money as his opponent , was another inherent win-win for contributors. If he had lost, he would still have been a sitting legislator. By winning he moved to the State Senate where he became one of 21 , rather than one of 41 votes.
One option his opponent could try if that person is outspent by a large margin is to portray Booth as an insider , take advantage of as much free media as possible and hope enough voters to make a difference in the election outcome don't want an insider. The danger here is that some voters want an insider and I am guessing a significant number of voters in a district that has sent a decades long power player like Thurman Adams ( and I am not judging him positively or negatively by using this term as much as describing his role as executive Committee chair and later President Pro Tempore , he WAS a power player) back to Dover over the course of 36 years kind of like having an insider.
It's over three weeks away, so I plan to continue to follow this race and update when I find items of possible interest.
Whoever is nominated as Democratic candidate faces at least three hurdles in the race with Joe Booth. Each of these could be a double edged sword for Booth , so no one has a lock on this contest.
(1) Joe Booth has a record to run on. As mayor of Georgetown and later as State Representative, he can point to decisions he has made or been part of which have impacted the lives of voters. Of course, if his opponent can point to circumstances where he can be portrayed as out of touch with the constituents of the 19th State Senate District, this may not be as much of an advantage for Booth.
Depending on the Democratic candidate they may have their own record to run on or , if they have not had previous public service, may be able to present themselves as a fresh approach compared to Booth ,who has been in public service for several years.
(2) Booth has a proven ability to raise money which will be needed to get a campaign message out in a matter of weeks . He also may have already had a fair amount on hand prior to his senate candidacy nomination.
State Rep Joe Booth’s 12-31-2008 end of year balance was $35,541.47. Between 10-28-2008 and 12-31-2008 he raised $4,800.00. His 8 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $1,775.00 between 10/08/2008 and 10/27/2008. His 30 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $20,950.00 between 01/01/2008 and 10/05/2008.
His 2007 end of year report indicates Booth’s committee raised $5,100.00 between 01/01/2007 and 12/31/2007.
http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/ByCandidate?OpenView&Start=2.28&Count=30&Expand=2#2
If you have difficulty accessing campaign finance from the link above , try this one and click on “view Reports Online”:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml
It doesn’t mean the Democratic candidate can not raise a large amount of money in a short period of time, but it seems to mean that some time that might be used for voter contact will be used on donor contact by both the candidate and her/ his supporters.
(3) As a state representative in the middle of a term, Booth represents a win-win for campaign donors. If they donate and he wins, they supported a victorious state senator. If they support him and he loses , they supported someone who continues to have a vote in Legislative Hall as a state representative.
A 2007 Special Election demonstrates my point.
In the 14th State Senate special election held on November 3, 2007
Republican Joanne Christian’s 8 day filing from 9-30-2007 to 10-26-2007
reported Total Receipts of $22,350
*********************************************************************
Then Democratic State Rep. Bruce Ennis , who won the seat vacated by the death of State Sen Jim Vaughn, also submitted an 8 day filing from 9-27-2007 to 10-26-2007
He reported Total receipts of $42,915.00.
I can not be sure of the motives of anyone’s contributions ,but I can see that the outcome of supporting Ennis, who raised almost twice as much money as his opponent , was another inherent win-win for contributors. If he had lost, he would still have been a sitting legislator. By winning he moved to the State Senate where he became one of 21 , rather than one of 41 votes.
One option his opponent could try if that person is outspent by a large margin is to portray Booth as an insider , take advantage of as much free media as possible and hope enough voters to make a difference in the election outcome don't want an insider. The danger here is that some voters want an insider and I am guessing a significant number of voters in a district that has sent a decades long power player like Thurman Adams ( and I am not judging him positively or negatively by using this term as much as describing his role as executive Committee chair and later President Pro Tempore , he WAS a power player) back to Dover over the course of 36 years kind of like having an insider.
It's over three weeks away, so I plan to continue to follow this race and update when I find items of possible interest.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Some Thoughts about likely turnout in the 19th Senate Special Election.For now I am saying 15+% to low 20's% turnout,but it's still early to predict
The last post noted that the range for turnout in recent special elections has been from 5% in the 5th New Castle County Council District race in Feb 2009 to 29.1 % in the 7th State Rep seat race in April 2007.
The only two contests that received less than a 18% turnout were the 5th County Council race in New Castle County and the 1-20-2007 5th District Levy Court contest in Kent County.This would make me wonder if there is just less interest in county races than State legislative races.
This is likely due to the Delaware Code mandated limits on the issues county government addresses ( primarily public safety, land use, libraries) as opposed to the wider variety of issues the State government is able to address ( including health care, infrastructure, the court system, the correctional system and enough other items to make this year's State budget bill- HB 290- 242 pages).
The other reality of county government is that some of it's functions only take place in unincorporated areas.If you live in the City of Wilmington or Newark, municipal government may address some of these issues and you might be less motivated to vote in the county council race.
Some of the functions are continuous functions that become part of everyday community life and people may forget about them until they are directly impacted (for example, library or park hours are reduced). Otherwise, they may well be below the average voter's radar.
For these reasons I think it is possible the 19th State Senate race will have turnout closer to the other state legislative special elections than to either of these county government special elections.
It is still early, but as of now I would assume high teens to low 20s is the likely percentage turnout.
The State Fair will take some folks away from the district as has been pointed out in local media. I think another factor that I have not seen mentioned is that the election will be during a summer period when many people who can travel do travel, so some voters may be away.The vacationers, the infirmed and frail elderly would be ideal candidates for absentee voting, but it is questionable whether the condensed time frame of a special election will allow for the needed outreach for locating and contacting likely potential absentee voters.
The only two contests that received less than a 18% turnout were the 5th County Council race in New Castle County and the 1-20-2007 5th District Levy Court contest in Kent County.This would make me wonder if there is just less interest in county races than State legislative races.
This is likely due to the Delaware Code mandated limits on the issues county government addresses ( primarily public safety, land use, libraries) as opposed to the wider variety of issues the State government is able to address ( including health care, infrastructure, the court system, the correctional system and enough other items to make this year's State budget bill- HB 290- 242 pages).
The other reality of county government is that some of it's functions only take place in unincorporated areas.If you live in the City of Wilmington or Newark, municipal government may address some of these issues and you might be less motivated to vote in the county council race.
Some of the functions are continuous functions that become part of everyday community life and people may forget about them until they are directly impacted (for example, library or park hours are reduced). Otherwise, they may well be below the average voter's radar.
For these reasons I think it is possible the 19th State Senate race will have turnout closer to the other state legislative special elections than to either of these county government special elections.
It is still early, but as of now I would assume high teens to low 20s is the likely percentage turnout.
The State Fair will take some folks away from the district as has been pointed out in local media. I think another factor that I have not seen mentioned is that the election will be during a summer period when many people who can travel do travel, so some voters may be away.The vacationers, the infirmed and frail elderly would be ideal candidates for absentee voting, but it is questionable whether the condensed time frame of a special election will allow for the needed outreach for locating and contacting likely potential absentee voters.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Prior Special Election Turnout Doesn't Tell Us what the turnout will be in the 19th,but may hint at the parameters for turnout
12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
MIGLIORE MICHAEL P. DEMOCRATIC 1,467
KOVACH THOMAS H. REPUBLICAN 1,540
Total voter turnout 3,007
18.13% turnout
28th Rep District
12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout
14th Senate
11-3-2007
Bruce Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309
18% turnout
41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)—1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)--1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)--225
JOHN ATKINS (WRITE-IN)—584
28% turnout
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7
Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %
JAMES BOWERS-REPUBLICAN—2048--47 . 4 %
29.1% turnout
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
New Castle County -5th County Council Feb 19th, 2009
DILLER ELISA C. DEMOCRATIC 808 60%
MOULTHROP JAMES REPUBLICAN 545 40%
Total votes cast 1,353
Turnout was 5.53%
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml
Election Date: 01/20/07
Voter Turnout = 8%
Kent County 5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
GEORGE SWEENEY--------477----39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
W. G. EDMANSON II-------539---44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
KEVIN MCCARTHY--------207---16 . 9 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect07/elect07_special_levy_5/html/election.shtml
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
MIGLIORE MICHAEL P. DEMOCRATIC 1,467
KOVACH THOMAS H. REPUBLICAN 1,540
Total voter turnout 3,007
18.13% turnout
28th Rep District
12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout
14th Senate
11-3-2007
Bruce Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309
18% turnout
41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)—1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)--1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)--225
JOHN ATKINS (WRITE-IN)—584
28% turnout
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7
Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %
JAMES BOWERS-REPUBLICAN—2048--47 . 4 %
29.1% turnout
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
New Castle County -5th County Council Feb 19th, 2009
DILLER ELISA C. DEMOCRATIC 808 60%
MOULTHROP JAMES REPUBLICAN 545 40%
Total votes cast 1,353
Turnout was 5.53%
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml
Election Date: 01/20/07
Voter Turnout = 8%
Kent County 5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
GEORGE SWEENEY--------477----39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
W. G. EDMANSON II-------539---44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
KEVIN MCCARTHY--------207---16 . 9 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect07/elect07_special_levy_5/html/election.shtml
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