Outcome not a surprise, but victory margin was in the 10th Senate District.Voter dropoff an issue down ballot

I was startled by the wide margin by which Bethany Hall-Long won. Her registration edge was 4322. She won by 6411. I thought I might have been a bit conservative in predicting she would win by 800-1000,but I would not have guessed the split would have been this wide since it was an open seat represented by a Republican for the last 6 years.
Registration Totals 14,275 (D) 9,953(R) 7,811(others) 32,039(total)


STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 10
23 of 23 Districts Reported

DEMOCRATIC PARTY - BETHANY A. HALL-LONG***13965***64 . 9 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY-JAMES DAVID WELDIN***7554***35 . 1 %

Some commentators might view this as part of some coattails of a general Democratic trend, but if that was the case other local candidates might have had wide victory margins as well in election districts in the 10th Senatorial.
A wide victory margin took place for incumbent Democrats , John Kowalko in the 25th, and John Viola in the 26th, each of whom actually outpaced Hall-Long in each of the election districts they share with her. It was not true for Democratic challengers in the other contested Representative Districts that overlap with Hall-Long’s 10th Senate District. These challengers lagged behind Hall-Long even in election districts where they won handily.
Here is what local state rep candidates did and how Hall –Long did in each of the election districts, along with Obama-McCain numbers to gauge coattails:

1st ED of the 8th RD-President-Obama (D ) 560**McCain (R ) 569
1st ED of the 8th RD -- 10th Senate District - Hall-Long( D ) 722**Weldin (R ) 393
1st ED of the 8th RD- -8th State Rep Dist-Johnson (D ) 508 ***Sturtevant (R ) 588
This election district has a Republican registration edge,but is also Hall-Long’s home election district
__________________________________________________________
2nd ED of the 9th RD- President-Obama (D ) 979**McCain (R ) 805
2nd ED of the 9th RD --10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )1040 **Weldin (R ) 687
2nd ED of the 9th RD –9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) ** 729Cathcart (R)1023
_________________________________________________
6th ED of the 9th RD- President-Obama (D ) 1361McCain (R )656
6th ED of the 9th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )1249 **Weldin (R ) 669
6th ED of the 9th RD–9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) 1108**Cathcart (R) 821
_____________________________________________________

8th ED of the 9th RD – President-Obama (D ) 586 McCain (R ) 422
8th ED of the 9th RD –10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )617 **Weldin (R ) 367

8th ED of the 9th RD ––9th Rep Dist Walker (D )406*** Cathcart (R)584
______________________________________________________

10th ED of the 9th RD – President-Obama (D ) 631McCain (R ) 576

10th ED of the 9th RD –10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )650 **Weldin (R ) 513

10th ED of the 9th RD ––9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) **401Cathcart (R)788
________________________________________________________


6th ED of the 15th RD-President-Obama (D ) 1245 McCain (R ) 315
6th ED of the 15th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 1125 **Weldin (R ) 314
6th ED of the 15th RD Longhurst (D ) unopposed
__________________________________________________________________ 1stED of the 24th RD- President-Obama (D ) 309***McCain (R )124
1st ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 274 **Weldin (R ) 129

1st ED of the 24th RD- 24th Representative District Basara (D ) 167**Oberle (R ) 247
___________________________________________________________
7th ED of the 24th RD-President-Obama (D ) 459**McCain (R )119
7th ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 396 **Weldin (R ) 125

7th ED of the 24th RD-24th Representative District Basara (D ) 328** Oberle (R ) 194
______________________________________________________


9th ED of the 24th RD-President-Obama (D ) 638** McCain (R )284
9th ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )575 **Weldin (R ) 281

9th ED of the 24th RD-24th Representative District Basara (D ) 316** Oberle (R ) 561
_______________________________________________________

2nd ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 672**McCain (R ) 325
2nd ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 604 **Weldin (R ) 334

2nd ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 729 **Gates (R) 247
____________________________________________________________
5th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 555***McCain (R ) 341
5th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )514 **Weldin (R ) 338

5th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 614** Gates (R)249
____________________________________________________________
6th ED of the 25th RD-President**Obama (D ) 641***McCain (R )396
6th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 583**Weldin (R ) 432

6th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 689**Gates (R) 339
_____________________________________________________________
7th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 502**McCain (R )291
7th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 456**Weldin (R ) 311

7th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 516 **Gates (R) 258
______________________________________________________________
9th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D )302** McCain (R ) 114
9th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )290 **Weldin (R ) 105

9th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 309***Gates (R)90
___________________________________________________________
2nd ED of the 26th RD-President-Obama (D )** 642 McCain (R )166
2nd ED of the 26th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )614 **Weldin (R ) 157

2nd ED of the 26th RD-26th Representative District Viola (D ) 632Filliben (R ) 136
_________________________________________________________
8th ED of the 26th RD-Obama (D ) 528**McCain (R )84
8th ED of the 26th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 475 **Weldin (R ) 86

8th ED of the 26th RD-26th Representative District Viola (D ) 497 **Filliben (R )58
___________________________________________________________
1st ED of the 27th RD-President-Obama (D ) 711** McCain (R )282
1st ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 666 **Weldin (R ) 262

1st ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D ) 535*Lofink (R&W )442* Spencer (I )18
_________________________________________________________________
2nd ED of the 27th RD -Obama (D ) 480** McCain (R )209
2nd ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 442 **Weldin (R ) 202

2nd ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )368 Lofink (R&W )279Spencer (I)14
_____________________________________________________________

3rd ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D ) 642 McCain (R ) 228
3rd ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )544 **Weldin (R ) 269

3rd ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques(D )453 Lofink (R&W )353Spencer(I)30
_________________________________________________________
4th ED of the 27th RD-President-Obama (D ) 446** McCain (R )223
4th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 378 **Weldin (R ) 270

4th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )311**Lofink(R&W )338 **Spencer (I) 20
________________________________________________________________

8th ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D ) 794**McCain (R ) 510
8th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 702 **Weldin (R ) 547

8th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )638 Lofink (R&W )609Spencer (I)50
________________________________________________________________

9th ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D )713 McCain (R )323
9th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 628 **Weldin (R ) 346

9th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )511 Lofink (R&W )465*Spencer(I) 23
______________________________________________________________


10th ED of the 27th RD-Obama (D ) 530**McCain (R )362
10th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 421 **Weldin (R ) 417

10th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )293** Lofink (R&W )570**Spencer (I)6
_____________________________________________________________

Total 10th Senate--Hall-Long ( D) 13,965**** Weldin (R ) 7554
President’s race in 10th Senate Obama (D ) 14,926*** McCain ( R)7,724
22,020 voted in the presidential race( major parties). 21,519 voted in 10th Senate.
Hall-Long had 961 fewer votes than Obama.
Weldin had 170 fewer votes than McCain.
Obama got 67.8%. Hall-Long got 64.9%. I think several hundred Democrats just did not make it to the bottom of the ballot.


Notes:
Lofink (R- 27th) and Oberle (R-24th) ran on the Working Families Party line , in addition to the Republicans. In this post I have provided the combined totals for each of them.
Jim Spencer ran in the 27th as the Independent Party candidate.
Geography in very general terms:
8th & 9th –area near C&D canal
15th- Bear area
24th- Newark (East)
25th-Newark (East)
26th Bear-Glasgow area
27th-Glasgow area

Possible Election Winner You Never Heard of-The Working Families Party

You may have never heard of the Working Families Party,but they may have an impact in 2008 in some close races.
Here is a description from the Party’s website:
The Delaware Working Families Party is a grassroots, community and labor based political party. We strive to make elected officials address issues that matter most to working-class, middle-class, and poor families that work hard to make ends meet-issues like jobs, health care, education, and housing.

The Working Families Party has Endorsed 6 candidates on today’s ballot, Karen Weldin Stewart in the Insurance Commissioner’s race and five candidates for state representative.
Here is the list of endorsements:

Karen Stewart ( D ) Insurance Commissioner
Dennis Williams ( D ) 10th
Vince Lofink (R ) 27th
Terry Spence ( R ) 18th
Bill Oberle (R ) 24th
Jerry Semper (D ) 39th

Based on past voting history I would say Oberle is a safe bet to win in the 24th and Semper & Williams are likely to lose.
The other three races are expected to be close and the endorsement could be a deciding factor. There may be enough people who will vote for a candidate and not want to vote for the major party line, that Stewart, Spence and Lofink could possibly win and have their share of Working Families votes be more than their margin of victory which would be a big coup for a relatively new party.


Spence won by 601 in 2006 and Lofink won by only 128 votes. Each of these districts has at least 2000 more Democrats than Republicans. It is distinctly possible a few hundred Democrats may feel more comfortable voting for Spence or Lofink on the Working Families line on the ballot without giving them Republican votes.


2006 18th Representative District

DEMOCRATIC PARTY
MICHAEL A BARBIERI *** 2,123*** 43 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
TERRY R SPENCE *** 2,724*** 56 . 2 %


2006 27th Representative District

DEMOCRATIC PARTY
EARL JAQUES **** 2,921** 48 . 9 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
VINCENT A LOFINK **** 3,049** 51 . 1 %





18th Representative District

DEM****REP*****OTHERS**TOTAL
6,475**3,148***2,985***12,608


27th Representative District
DEM**** REP****OTHERS** TOTAL

6,340**4,289***3,407***14,036



For more about this party:

http://delworkingfamilies.org/

Multiple Factors make Democrat Bethany Hall-Long the Likely Winner in 10th State Senate open seat.

Factor (1) She has a significant Democratic registration edge:

10th State Senate District

Democrats **** Republicans****Others*****Total
14,275*********9,953********* 7,811******32,039



The person State Representative Bethany Hall-Long seeks to replace is retiring Republican Sen Steve Amick whose legislative service is: State Representative 1986-1994; State Senator 1994-present, Minority Whip 1997-98,Minority Leader 1999-2002.
Amick’s district was primarily Newark based until 2002’s reapportionment and the center of gravity for the 10th State Senate District moved southward closer to where Hall-Long lives. In 2002 Amick won his new seat 6,436 to 4,393 over Democrat Julie Dugan of Newark. He beat Dugan 10,895 to 8,884 in their 2004 rematch.

I see Hall-Long in a similar situation as Amick was in 2002 ,but with a registration edge which Amick did not have. Each of them could claim years of legislative experience while much of it was not representing the people who would be voting for them at the time of the election: Amick’s 2002 election or 2008, in Hall-Long’s case ,since only her own election district is the only election district in the 8th Rep District that is also in the 10th State Senate District.

I heard Hall-Long and Republican Jim Weldin at the Embassy Suites debate last month and she pointed out the number of occasions she had worked across the aisle with Amick. Representing adjacent areas and overlapping representation in her election district, they most likely addressed many of the same quality of life constituent concerns.

Factor # (2)This places Hall-Long in the enviable position of being able to represent both a change and continuity at the same time.

Factor #(3)This is the fifth consecutive election that Hall-Long has been on the ballot in the area, although this represents three different ballots: the pre-2002 9th Representative District in 2000, the current 8th Representative District in 2002, 2004 & 2006 and the current 10 th State Senate District in this election cycle. Jim Weldin has not been on the general election ballot in the area since 2002. This may mean a big difference in name recognition.

Factor # (4) Hall-Long raised $89,394.47 as of 10-27-2008. Weldin raised $20,320.68.
An additional $69,000 can mean a lot more mailings and ads are possible to get one’s message out.

If Hall-Long wins she will be serving with several other former House members.
Six of the current 21 state senate members have made the transition from State House of Representative to State Senate:
Sen Steve Amick
Sen. George Bunting
Sen Bruce Ennis
Sen Cathy Clouthier
Sen Dave McBride
Sen Liane Sorenson
My pick is Hall-Long wins by 800-1000 votes.

Gerald Brady Likely Repeat Winner in the 4th Rep District

Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement, but in the interest of transparency I mention that I have known Gerald Brady since 1996 and was a campaign volunteer during his 1996 campaign. I have never met Tyler Nixon,but have heard him on local talk radio. As with all of the previous posts , I am not attempting to convince the reader who they should or should not vote for---just who I think is likely to win.

Democrat Gerald Brady has held public office since 1996 representing much of what is now the 4th Representative District for that entire time. He has represented the areas around Trolley Square, Rockford Park, Wawaset Park and Tower Hill as the 8th District City Council member for 10 years and 2 years as a State Representative . This gives him an advantage in name recognition.

The 8th City Council District comprises 5 of the 19 election districts in the 4th Representative District: the 1st,3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th election districts. Election Districts are not mandated to be of equal size,so these five election districts make up 8529 voters of the 4th Representative District’s 16,088 voters or 53.0%.

Please be aware that when the district boundary lines were drawn in 2002, the district was represented by a powerful Republican, Joe DiPinto who served as chair of the Joint Finance Committee while in the legislature, and that the House had a Republican majority which drew the district lines. Brady did not make these lines ,but has politically navigated well within them.

His opponent , Tyler Nixon , has never held elected office and in a year when there is a claim people want change, that might be an asset ,but having his opponent outraise him in campaign contributions by more than 3-1 means he has less ability to get whatever message he has out to the public.

Some online Nixon supporters have raised the campaign finance report of Gerald Brady as an issue, claiming Brady’s contributors constitute a group of special interests. That may have an impact, but I think voters see fund-raising as part of the process and as long as the people contributing don’t have current legal problems I don’t think this issue gets much traction with voters.

Tony Rezko’s dealings with Barack Obama and Al Gore’s campaign contributions at the Buddhist Temple a couple elections ago did not determine their electability and these issues got extensive media coverage. Nixon has not implied anything beyond that he thinks Brady has supporters who have a vested influence in legislation and the issue has not gotten much media coverage outside of talk radio and the blogs.

If no one who has a vested interest in legislation could donate, it would be tough under current rules to finance a campaign. A quick review of the 30-day and 8-day campaign finance reports for House Speaker Terry Spence and Rep Bill Oberle, both Republicans in leadership positions, finds contribution histories not shockingly different than Brady’s: some labor unions, some corporate PACs, some registered lobbyists and some private citizens. It seems like if this issue had across-the-board political traction, all the Republican candidates would be running against what Nixon calls “special interest” money.

Brady won in 2006 by 55-45 % margin after a primary to see what Democrat would run for the vacancy created by DiPinto’s retirement. In 2008 he had no primary and has two years incumbency.
Brady also has a healthy registration edge.
I predict Brady wins by at least a 60-40% margin.

Campaign Finance #s & Registration #s for the 4th Rep

Campaign Contributions received:

Brady ( D)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $6,124.16
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $15,850.
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $4,550.00
Total raised **************** $26,524.16

Nixon (R )
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $97.10
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $5080.00
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $375.00
Nixon has lent his campaign $1,000 over the course of the campaign.
Total raised and loaned ************** $6552.10
_________________________________________________________________
DEM******REP****OTHERS** TOTAL
7,533****4,765**3,790** 16,088

If Money Talks, The Democrats May Shout Over Wins At the C&D Canal

Money may not buy elections,but it can pay for the lawn signs, postage and leaflets one needs to get one's name & message out.
In fund-raising , the Democrats in the 10th State Senate and 8th State Representative seats, have far outpaced their GOP rivals


From the Campaign Finance Reports from the Election Commissioner’s website:

10th
Senate District
Hall –Long (D) -
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $11,605.25
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $39,970.00
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $37,819.22


Weldin (R)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ****** $1,744.22
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ***** $11,501.12
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $7,075.56


8th Representative District
Johnson ( D)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $0
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ***** $21,348.79
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ****** $5,375.00
Johnson also loaned his campaign $5,051.25 over the course of the campaign

Sturtevant ( R)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ******* $0
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $11,950
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $7,694.00



http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/Home?openform

http://elections.delaware.gov/

E-Focus Group of Md School Board Candidates on HB 117 implications

On the assumption that Delawareans have opinions about school board elections held on the date of a general election and Marylanders have experience in holding school board elections on the same day as the general election, I have done an electronic focus group of 2008 Maryland school board candidates. This process was inspired by discussion of HB 117 which is now in the Delaware House Education Committee and proposes to move school board election day in Delaware from the spring as a stand alone election to November when school board would be on the general election ballot.


I e-mailed 92 former candidates after getting their names and email addresses from the Maryland Elections website. As of 4-28-2009 I have had 9 "failed -undeliverable" responses. This may be due to spam filters. It is also possible some had the email accounts only for the election and no longer have the same email address almost 6 months later. I have gotten 16 complete responses with answers. Three persons have responded,but have not yet supplied answers to the questions I posed.

I am reviewing the answers I have received and waiting a few days for additional answers. By week's end I hope to have the beginning of a review of the answers given by some Maryland School Board candidates on the concept of school board elections being held on general election day and some of my thoughts on the issue and their responses.