I found it interesting at how closely the results by election district in the 9-12-2009 37th Rep District special election mirrored the 2002 general election.
Democrat Robinson won the 1st and 2nd election districts in the 37th today , just as Democrat John Schroeder had in 2002. Schroeder was the last Democrat to come close to winning this seat,losing by less than a percentage point to Joe Booth. In 2004 Booth beat Nicholas Mirro 73% to 27%. Booth was unopposed in 2006 and beat Helen Truitt in 2008 by a margin of 64%-36%
Republican Ruth Briggs King won election districts 4-8 as had Republican Joe Booth.
Robinson lost the 3rd by 97 votes and Schroeder won it by one vote,but otherwise it was close to the overall result with Robinson losing closer in Georgetown where he lives and Schroeder,who was from Lewes, winning by a wider margin in Lewes than Robinson did .Schroeder’s wider margin in Lewes kept his race closer.
Booth beat Schroeder 50.3% to 49.7%.
Briggs King won 53.6% to 46.4%.
Sept 12, 2009
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37
----------------District Total ROBINSON R----- BRIGGS KING R
-----------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------1034------ 600---------------- 434
02-37------------------ 998------ 509---------------- 489
03-37------------------ 493------ 198---------------- 295
04-37------------------ 178------- 68----------------- 110
05-37------------------ 512------ 171----------------- 341
06-37----------------- 900------ 405----------------- 495
07-37----------------- 315------- 112----------------- 203
08-37----------------- 104------- 42------------------- 62
RD Tot ---------------4534----- 2105---------------- 2429
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
2002
-----------------------DISTRICT TOTAL SCHROEDER------ BOOTH J W
-------------------------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------------1440-------------- 978--------------- 462
02-37----------------------- 1317-------------- 845--------------- 472
03-37------------------------ 797-------------- 399--------------- 398
04-37------------------------ 246--------------- 94--------------- 152
05-37------------------------ 788-------------- 233--------------- 555
06-37----------------------- 1210-------------- 446--------------- 764
07-37----------------------- 507--------------- 166---------------- 341
08-37----------------------- 189---------------- 64----------------- 125
RD TOT------------------- 6494-------------- 3225---------------- 3269
CAND TOT 6494 3225 3269
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
About 25% turnout predicted in the 37th Rep District on 9-12-2009
There are possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and a 3:30 pm football game at the University of Delaware,so people who want high turnout may have to get people out before the weather scares them away or the game pulls them away,but I think turnout will still be around the 25% it has been usually when a legislative special election is within 80 days of June 30th.
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.
Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.
Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Some More Perspective on the Last Post
There are 41 Representative Districts in Delaware. If each were about equal in population and each had roughly equal voter registration percentages each district would account for 2.4% of the statewide registration total. All but one of the 6 districts mentioned in the last post exceeds this number.Their combined 17.9% exceeds the 14.4% they would account for if registration per representative district were roughly about equal.
If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.
If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Some Early Thoughts om Reapportionment.It's 3 years away,but this might be a trend
The reapportionment of the Delaware General Assembly takes place every ten years after the census. The next US census is in 2010 and the next reapportionment will take place in 2012. It is very early to be too specific about what areas will get additional representation in the General Assembly due to an increase in their population in relation to other areas, but there appears to be a trend.
I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.
While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.
Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.
Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.
8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend
2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total
2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)
9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City
2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total
2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)
14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-
2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total
2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)
28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total
2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)
29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming
2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total
2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)
38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---
2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total
2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)
These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.
Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.
Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.
While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.
Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.
Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.
8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend
2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total
2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)
9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City
2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total
2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)
14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-
2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total
2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)
28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total
2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)
29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming
2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total
2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)
38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---
2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total
2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)
These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.
Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.
Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
Saturday, August 29, 2009
A clarification on the 8-21-09 post and the 8-25-09 post
In the 8-21-2009 post "New Castle County" is the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County within the boundaries of New Castle County and does not include the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
In the 8-25-2009 post "New Castle County" represents the entire New Castle County which includes the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County and the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
I do not think the 8-25-2009 information is broken down by political subdivision on the website.
In the 8-25-2009 post "New Castle County" represents the entire New Castle County which includes the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County and the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
I do not think the 8-25-2009 information is broken down by political subdivision on the website.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Extended Incumbency and A bigger Warchest don't always mean a bigger victory margin, recent auditor races are proof
Tom Wagner has been the Delaware State Auditor since then-Gov Mike Castle appointed him in 1989. He has won five statewide elections since that appointment. That an incumbent wins re-election may not be surprising.It might be unexpected that his victory margin would decrease as his length of service increased and he disproportionately increased the disparity between the size of his campaign war chest and his Democratic opponent,but that is what took place over his last three elections.
In 1998 he had been in office nine years. He beat Diane Kempski, the New Castle County Register in Chancery, 58% to 42%. He outpaced her in fundraising by $39,650.80 to $16,177.97.
In 2002 he defeated Bob Wasserbach 61.8% to 38.2%, but Wasserbach, who has never held elected office, did not form a committee until September after being appointed as the Democratic party nominee which each party can do if no candidate files prior to the filing deadline in July. Wagner , who had 13 years in office at the time, raised $43,330 to Wasserbach's $12,965 in contributions and $1000 campaign loan from the candidate. While Wagner started the year with over $3000 in the bank, Wasserbach first contribution over $100 came on 9-17-2002 which was less than two months before election day.
After serving 17 years as Auditor Tom Wagner faced off against Democrat Michael Dalto, who had also never held elected office and whose campaign did not begin until September of 2006. Dalto's campaign finance report has no contributions prior to September 2006. Wagner began 2006 with $89, 718.67 in the bank. Wagner went on to exceed Dalto's fundraising by to $104,808.67 to $1,445 or 72-1. Wagner won with 53.7% to 46.3%.
A win is a win for Wagner,but for Dalto to be outspent 72-1 by someone in office for 17 years and come within 3.8% of having a majority of votes may raise issues about whether Wagner could be vulnerable in 2010.
It won't guarantee the 2010 outcome,but as of 12-31-2008 Wagner had $33,682.87
in his campaign treasury.
Here are the numbers:
1998 election results
Diane Kempski (D)-73,475 votes-R. Thomas Wagner,Jr (R)-101,207
1998 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-98-----------------Kempski-$120.97------Wagner $1880.82
Raised 1-1-98 to 10-4-98 -----Kempski--$8300------ Wagner $22,170
Raised 10-5-98 to 10-26-98------Kempski-$7457-------Wagner $10,600
Raised 10-27-98 to election day-Kempski-$300--------Wagner $5000
Total raised prior to election -Kemspki-$16,177.97--Wagner-$39,650.82
2002 election results
Robert Wasserbach (D)-84,248 votes R Thomas Wagner ,Jr (R)-136,410
2002 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-02----------------Wasserbach-----zero---------Wagner $3,350
Raised 1-1-02 to 10-6-02-----Wasserbach-$6820----------Wagner $31,180
Wasserbach lent his campaign $1000
Raised 10-7-02 to 10-28-02--Wasserbach-$5,345---------Wagner $6,550
Raised 10-28-02 to election--Wasserbach- $800----------Wagner $2250
Total raised prior to election-Wasserbach-$12,965--------Wagner $43,330
2006 election results
Michael John Dalto (D)-113,475 votes R.Thomas Wagner,Jr (R) 131,592
2006 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-06------------------Dalto----------zero-------------Wagner $89,718.67
Raised 1-1-06 to 10-9-06------Dalto---------$1,225------------Wagner $11,690
(Dalto's report lists 9-1-06 as the start date and shows no money raised before 9-1-06)
Raised 10-10-06 to 10-30-06--Dalto----------$200------------Wagner $1,200
Raised 10-30-06 to election---Dalto----------zero--------------Wagner $2,200
Total raised prior to election--Dalto--------$1,425-------------Wagner--$104,808.67
For campaign finance reports:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml
For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
In 1998 he had been in office nine years. He beat Diane Kempski, the New Castle County Register in Chancery, 58% to 42%. He outpaced her in fundraising by $39,650.80 to $16,177.97.
In 2002 he defeated Bob Wasserbach 61.8% to 38.2%, but Wasserbach, who has never held elected office, did not form a committee until September after being appointed as the Democratic party nominee which each party can do if no candidate files prior to the filing deadline in July. Wagner , who had 13 years in office at the time, raised $43,330 to Wasserbach's $12,965 in contributions and $1000 campaign loan from the candidate. While Wagner started the year with over $3000 in the bank, Wasserbach first contribution over $100 came on 9-17-2002 which was less than two months before election day.
After serving 17 years as Auditor Tom Wagner faced off against Democrat Michael Dalto, who had also never held elected office and whose campaign did not begin until September of 2006. Dalto's campaign finance report has no contributions prior to September 2006. Wagner began 2006 with $89, 718.67 in the bank. Wagner went on to exceed Dalto's fundraising by to $104,808.67 to $1,445 or 72-1. Wagner won with 53.7% to 46.3%.
A win is a win for Wagner,but for Dalto to be outspent 72-1 by someone in office for 17 years and come within 3.8% of having a majority of votes may raise issues about whether Wagner could be vulnerable in 2010.
It won't guarantee the 2010 outcome,but as of 12-31-2008 Wagner had $33,682.87
in his campaign treasury.
Here are the numbers:
1998 election results
Diane Kempski (D)-73,475 votes-R. Thomas Wagner,Jr (R)-101,207
1998 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-98-----------------Kempski-$120.97------Wagner $1880.82
Raised 1-1-98 to 10-4-98 -----Kempski--$8300------ Wagner $22,170
Raised 10-5-98 to 10-26-98------Kempski-$7457-------Wagner $10,600
Raised 10-27-98 to election day-Kempski-$300--------Wagner $5000
Total raised prior to election -Kemspki-$16,177.97--Wagner-$39,650.82
2002 election results
Robert Wasserbach (D)-84,248 votes R Thomas Wagner ,Jr (R)-136,410
2002 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-02----------------Wasserbach-----zero---------Wagner $3,350
Raised 1-1-02 to 10-6-02-----Wasserbach-$6820----------Wagner $31,180
Wasserbach lent his campaign $1000
Raised 10-7-02 to 10-28-02--Wasserbach-$5,345---------Wagner $6,550
Raised 10-28-02 to election--Wasserbach- $800----------Wagner $2250
Total raised prior to election-Wasserbach-$12,965--------Wagner $43,330
2006 election results
Michael John Dalto (D)-113,475 votes R.Thomas Wagner,Jr (R) 131,592
2006 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-06------------------Dalto----------zero-------------Wagner $89,718.67
Raised 1-1-06 to 10-9-06------Dalto---------$1,225------------Wagner $11,690
(Dalto's report lists 9-1-06 as the start date and shows no money raised before 9-1-06)
Raised 10-10-06 to 10-30-06--Dalto----------$200------------Wagner $1,200
Raised 10-30-06 to election---Dalto----------zero--------------Wagner $2,200
Total raised prior to election--Dalto--------$1,425-------------Wagner--$104,808.67
For campaign finance reports:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml
For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
In New Castle County it's not just more people,it's increasing turnout percentages
Tom Wagner is the only currently seated statewide elected official to have won an election and lost New Castle County in the last five election cycles. I thought I would look at how turnout has changed in New Castle County over the last three nonpresidential elections.
Below are the numbers from the New Castle County Board of Election website.
In 2006 all of the Republicans statewide except US Rep.Mike Castle lost New Castle County.Only Castle and Tom Wagner won statewide. The Republican candidates for US Senate,treasurer and attorney general lost.
In 2002 the entire slate except Castle and Tom Wagner lost New Castle County. Castle, Tom Wagner and attorney general Jane Brady were each re-elected,but the Republican US Senate candidate and treasusrer's candidate were each defeated statewide by at least 15 percentage points .
It does not look promising for the Republicans statewide in 2010 unless they can change the voting trend or win by close to a 2-1 margin in Kent & Sussex Counties which is roughly what Wagner did in 2006 .
***************************1998***********2002*************2006
Registered voters------------/307,802-------338,301----------353,834
People who voted------------/114,870-------146,907----------161,932
% of Registered voters voted/37.32%--------43.42%-----------45.76%
From:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006g/comparison.pdf
Below are the numbers from the New Castle County Board of Election website.
In 2006 all of the Republicans statewide except US Rep.Mike Castle lost New Castle County.Only Castle and Tom Wagner won statewide. The Republican candidates for US Senate,treasurer and attorney general lost.
In 2002 the entire slate except Castle and Tom Wagner lost New Castle County. Castle, Tom Wagner and attorney general Jane Brady were each re-elected,but the Republican US Senate candidate and treasusrer's candidate were each defeated statewide by at least 15 percentage points .
It does not look promising for the Republicans statewide in 2010 unless they can change the voting trend or win by close to a 2-1 margin in Kent & Sussex Counties which is roughly what Wagner did in 2006 .
***************************1998***********2002*************2006
Registered voters------------/307,802-------338,301----------353,834
People who voted------------/114,870-------146,907----------161,932
% of Registered voters voted/37.32%--------43.42%-----------45.76%
From:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006g/comparison.pdf
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