If Kovach Does Not Increase Support Outside His Arc of Triumph, 2012 Could be his Waterloo

In the last post I noted that six districts which form an arc which overlaps parts the 2nd ,3rd & 8th county council districts spelled the difference between victory and defeat for Republican Tom Kovach in the January 13, 2011 special election for president of New Castle County Council. Kovach beat Democrat Tim Sheldon by 4582 votes countywide,but not including 6 representative districts ( 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th) Kovach would have lost by 223 votes. Kovach won and I am not disputing that,just pointing out that an overdependence on those 6 districts could hurt him in the future.

The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.




As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.



This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.

He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.

Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.



2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%


2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%

2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%

2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%

2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%

2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%

More Indications Relative Turnout was the key to Kovach's Win 1-13-2011

Tom Kovach won in only 12 of 26 Representative Districts in the Jan 13,2001 Special Election for New Castle County Council President, but six districts provided him with a huge enough winning margin that he was able to win countywide by more than 15 percentage points. These six districts are the 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th. Because different parts of a rep district can be in different county council districts the election districts within these representative districts overlap multiple county council districts, but these districts somewhat mirror (thought do not exactly reflect )the combined borders of the 2nd, 3rd & 8th county council districts which make an arc across the northern portion of New Castle County--Kovach's Arc of Triumph, in this election.

Here is a link to a map of the 12 county council districts where you can see the arc the 2nd, 3rd & 8th council district make:

http://www.nccde.org/Council/2005Districts.htm


Here are the results & turnout in Kovach's six most productive rep districts.
The following rep districts have Democratic State reps and Democratic registration edges between 500 to 3000 more registered Ds than Rs:

4th—registered voters—16,571
Kovach won 1373 to 735 for Sheldon---638 winning margin
Total turnout 2126—12.8% turnout


6th----registered voters—17,037
Kovach won 1592 to 530 for Sheldon---1062 winning margin
Total turnout 2129----12.5% turnout

7th-registered voters- 15,225
Kovach won 1536 to 693 for Sheldon---843 winning margin
Total turnout 2247------14.8% turnout


10th-registered voters- 16,697
Kovach won 1167 to 421 for Sheldon---746 winning margin
Total turnout 1591------9.5% turnout

These two districts each have a Republican State Representative and each has between 300 & 900 more Democratic than Republican registered voters:

11th-registered voters- 16,011
Kovach won 969 to 368 for Sheldon---601 winning margin
Total turnout 1347------8.4% turnout


12th-registered voters- 15,589
Kovach won 1543 to 628 for Sheldon---915 winning margin
Total turnout 2181------14.0% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
4th Rep District (Wilmington & western suburbs)margin-----638
6th Rep District (Edgemoor)-------------------margin-----1062
7th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)--------margin-----843
10th Rep District(Brandywine Hundred)--------margin----746
11th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)-------margin----601
12th Rep District (Mt Cuba/Yorllyn)-----------margin----915
Winning margin these six--------------------------------4805

Countywide- Kovach-16,721— Sheldon-12,139 -winning margin 4582

Coming into these 6 districts Kovach is down by 223,but he walks away with the election because these districts averaged 12% turnout as a group (5% better than the county as a whole) and because they voted so lopsidedly for Kovach.

Sheldon won more Rep Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near these 6 overperforming districts Kovach had.

Here is what it looked like in the six most productive districts for Sheldon.

The following rep districts each have a Democratic State rep and Democratic registration edges between 5000 to 8000 more registered Ds than Rs:

1st Rep District—registered voters— 13,983
Sheldon won 585 to 197 for Kovach--- 388winning margin
Total turnout 785—5.6% turnout


2nd Rep District----registered voters—13,338
Sheldon won 448 to 92 for Kovach--- 356winning margin
Total turnout 544---- 4.1% turnout

3rd Rep District-registered voters-12,890
Sheldon won 268 to 68 for Kovach--- 200winning margin
Total turnout 337------2.6% turnout


5th Rep District -registered voters- 14,499
Sheldon won 448 to 263 for Kovach--- 185winning margin
Total turnout 720------5.0% turnout



13th Rep District-registered voters-13,421
Sheldon won 319 to 197 for Kovach--- 194winning margin
Total turnout 534------4.0% turnout


16th Rep District-registered voters-13,496
Sheldon won 495 to 100 for Kovach --- 395winning margin
Total turnout 599------4.4% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
1st Rep District(Wilmington & Northern suburbs)--margin----- 388
2nd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 356
3rd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 200
5th Rep District(Bear/Glasgow)--------------------margin---- 185
13th Rep District(Elsmere/Richardson Park)--------margin---- 194
16th Rep District (New Castle)------------------- margin---- 395
Winning margin these six------------------------------------1718


While Sheldon won by more than 4-1 in a couple districts and better than 3-1 in another, his most productive districts did not provide the turnout he needed to make the race closer.The average turnout in Sheldon's 6 most productive districts was 4.3% which was 2.7% less than the overall county turnout and ,more importantly,was 7.7% less than the turnout in Kovach's Arc of Triumph.


Jan 2011 registration totals:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_rep.pdf

Jan 13,2011 special elections results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

Kovach won countywide on 1-13-2011,but his popularity was not across the board. He won big in a few areas.

Republican Tom Kovach won the Special Election for New Castle County Council President by 4852 votes and secured 57.5 % of the vote.He did not win big by winning all over the county,but by winning with huge margins in several locations that had higher turnout than the areas where his opponent Democrat County Councilman Tim Sheldon did well.

Sheldon won more State Representative Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near the numbers in some overperforming districts Kovach won.

Sheldon's winning margin did not break 400 votes in any of the 14 districts he won and overall turnout exceeded 900 in only one district in which Sheldon won. Kovach's winning margin exceeded 500 votes in 8 of the 12 districts in which Kovach won, including 3 in which the winning margin exceeded 840. Overall turnout in each of the 12 districts in which Kovach won was at least 900 with 4 having over 2000 total votes cast and another 7 having over 1000 total votes cast.

People did not come out to vote as much in areas where Sheldon was strong. They came out in large enough numbers in selected areas that favored Kovach which created an upset in a race when the registration edge favored the Democrats.

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some Northern suburbs-
Sheldon:585-197 winning margin 388

2nd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:448-92 winning margin 356

3rd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:268-68 winning margin 200

4th-Wilmington & some Western suburbs-
Kovach:1373-735 winning margin 638

5th-Bear/Glasgow-
Sheldon:448-263 winning margin 185

6th-Edgemoor-
Kovach:1592-530 winning margin 1062

7th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach: 1536-693 winning margin 843

8th-Southern New Castle County –
Kovach: 540-461 winning margin 79

9th-Southern New Castle County-
Kovach:1061-629 winning margin of 432

10th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:1167-421 winning margin of 746

11th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:969-368 winning margin of 601

12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-
Kovach: 1543-628 winning margin 915

13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-
Sheldon:319-197 winning margin 122

15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-
Sheldon:369-319 winning margin 50

16th-New Castle-
Sheldon:495-100 winning margin 395

17th-New Castle-
Sheldon:463-347 winning margin 116

18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-
Sheldon:389-339 winning margin 50

19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-
Sheldon:487-358 winning margin 129

20th-Hockessin/Stanton-
Kovach:1097-535 winning margin 562

21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Rte 2-
Kovach792-538 winning margin254

22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-
Kovach:1143-598 winning margin 545

23rd-Western Newark-
Sheldon:479-421 winning margin 58

24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-
Sheldon:370-298 winning margin 72

25th-Eastern Newark-
Sheldon:310-302 winning margin 8

26th-Bear Glasgow-
Sheldon:164-122 winning margin 42

27th-Glasgow-
Kovach:486-409 winning margin 77

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

14th and 38th Rep Districts have twice the percentage of absentee voters as state average for last 3 elections

I was asked if the higher proportion of absentee ballots cast in the 14th & 38th Representative Districts in 2010 was part of an ongoing pattern and the answer is yes. Each of these districts had a percentage of absentee voters to machine voters that was twice the statewide average for each of the last 3 elections (2006, 2008 & 2010). Unfortunately, prior to 2006 the delaware Elections Commissioner's website shows only total votes cast and does not break down votes cast between machine and absentee votes.
Here are the numbers:

2010-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 307,367 votes cast, 11,660 were absentee votes or
3.8% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of of 12,005 votes cast, 934 were absentee votes or
7.8% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 11,583 votes cast, 907 were absentee votes or
7.8 % of the were absentee

2008-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 398,134votes cast, 21,039 were absentee votes or
5.3 % of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 14,024 votes cast, 1,624 were absentee votes or
11.6% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 13,433 votes cast, 1,504 were absentee votes or
11.2% of the were absentee


2006-U S Representative race
Statewide-- out of 251,694 votes cast, 8,150 were absentee votes or
3.2% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 9,512 votes cast, 585 were absentee votes or
6.2 % of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 9,380 votes cast,638 were absentee votes
6.8% of the were absentee

It does not appear to be related to be a concerted partisan effort in either direction. Republican Christine O'Donnell lost in the 14th to Joe Biden in 2008 and Chris Coons in 2010.She won in the 38th in 2010 over Coons, while losing to Biden by 480 votes in 2008. Republican Mike Castle beat Dennis Spivack in each of the districts in 2006.

The Castle -Spivack race was used for 2006 because factoring in absentee write-in votes in the US Senate race in which O'Donnell got over 11,000 write-in votes looked like a cumbersome process due to the way the website recorded write-in votes.


http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Some Areas downstate had a higher proportion of absentee voting in 2010

While Kent & Sussex County supplied less than half the votes cast in the 2010 election in Delaware, Sussex County had pockets of voters where the percentage of absentee ballots cast was much higher than upstate districts.



There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.

In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.



US Senator

-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State

COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367



http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml

It was a different story with absentee balloting.


UNITED STATES SENATOR

Statewide totals
Candidate**MachineVotes**Absentee**********Total
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************


5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/absentee/2010/2010_gen_data.shtml



Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.


Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
2nd-Wilmington-308
3rd-Wilmington-111
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
5th-Bear/Glasgow-100
6th-Edgemore-235
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-115
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
20th-Hoekessin/Stanton-297
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111
27th-Glasgow-134

Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
29th-Hartley/Marydel-293
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
31st-Dover-424
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344
34th-Camden-Wyoming/Woodside-392


Sussex
14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
35th-Bridgeville/Greenwood-265
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907
39th-Seaford/Blades-276
40th-Laurel/Delmar-228
41st-Millsboro/Frankford/Gumboro-417



http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwres.shtml

Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose

Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.



Here are the current registration numbers:



County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total


New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml





In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:

US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%

US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%

State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%

Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%


I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml

Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %


SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml


There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.

Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html

19th senate Primary appears to have increased turnout in the US Senate primary/this area could be November battleground

GOP primary turnout statewide was 32% . Sussex County turnout was 38.6%. Turnout in the 19th State Senate District was 42%.

Despite accounting for 5.4% of the registered Republicans statewide (9,846 out of 182,796)the 19th senate district accounted for 7.3% of the US Senate primary voters on primary day(4215 out of 57,584). Since this a district that O'Donnell won better than two to one, this higher turnout obviously helped her.

We don't need totally to just assume that the local state senate contest is what drew many voters out. The numbers verify that to a degree. At seven of 16 polling places no more people voted in the US Senate race than the 19th state senate race.At four out of 16 polling places more voters cast ballots in the local state senate race than in the US Senate race. In the 4th of th 35th,the 8th of the 36th,the 6th of the 37th and the 3rd of the 39th a few more voters cast ballots in the 19th State Senate race. In the 6th of the 35th and 5th of the 36th and the 8th of the 37th the number of votes was exactly the same. In any of the tie districts if any voters came in to vote only in the US Senate race, it means that some others voted only in the local race. At any rate, these numbers appear to prove that at seven out of 16 polling places the US Senate race did not generate more interest ( as gauged by actual votes cast) than the local state senate race.

It is a handful of voters and it won't matter unless the winning margin is narrow,but it is curious that in the highest profile statewide Republican primary in years in which the two candidates appeared to represent clearly different views of what the Republican Party is or should be, that some voters would see that contest as no more compelling than their state senate contest. It is not possible to tell whether these voters are waiting until November and will vote for the GOP nominee as a matter of course and were sitting out the intraparty squabble or viewed the Castle/O'Donnell race as a "pox on both houses" and will not vote for O'Donnell or will not vote at all in this race in November.


State Senator Booth does not have a general election opponent and possibly people realized the primary would settle who takes the seat and that became some of the motivation.

Although Booth is unopposed in the general election, 3 out of four state rep districts whose parts comprise the 19th state senate district have contests for state representative which should keep turnout respectable relative to the statewide turnout.The 35th, 36th and 37th each has a contest. In the 39th which supplies only two of the 16 election districs in this senate district , Rep Daniel Short is unopposed.

Since in these four rep districts O'Donnell did particularly well in 2008's US Senate general election, these merit watching this year. She beat Joe Biden in the 35th and the 39th .She lost the 36th by only 130 votes while losing by over 600 in the 37th.

If Chris Coons is to beat her he needs to offset a possible loss in this area with votes in other (most likely upstate) areas of the state and cut into her margin in this area. I am betting we will be seeing him at the Apple Scrapple Festival in Bridgeville next weekend.


District Democrats Republicans Others Total

01 OF 35- 1,082 ----1,247 -------587 ---2,916
02 OF 35- 1,942---- 1,621------- 981--- 4,544
03 OF 35- --247-------264------- 142----- 653
04 OF 35- 1,217----- -780------- 495--- 2,492
06 OF 35- --482------ 468------- 306--- 1,256
07 OF 35--- 319------ 228------- 161----- 708
RD Total--5,289-----4,608------2,672---12,569


04 OF 36- 1,017------ 777------- 604--- 2,398
05 OF 36--- 260------ 254------- 154----- 668
06 OF 36- 1,106------ 768------- 545--- 2,419
08 OF 36--- 629------ 386------- 273--- 1,288
RD Total- 3,012---- 2,185----- 1,576--- 6,773

04 OF 37-- -179------ 234------- 118----- 531
05 OF 37--- 464------ 639------- 272--- 1,375
06 OF 37--1,130------ 948------- 578--- 2,656
08 OF 37--- 248------ 136------- 106----- 490
RD Total- 2,021---- 1,957----- 1,074--- 5,052

01 OF 39--- 264------ 405------- 168----- 837
03 OF 39--- 572------ 691------- 328--- 1,591
RD Total--- 836---- 1,096------- 496--- 2,428

SD Total- 11,158--- 9,846----- 5,818--- 26,822

UNITED STATES SENATOR



District Total CASTLE M O'DONNELL
01-35 ---556--- 136----- ----420

02-35-- -688-- 198--------- 490

03-35-- --89--- 23---------- 66

04-35- --329--- 102-------- 227

06-35- 180----- 40--------- 140

07-35- 98------ 33--------- 65



04-36- 277----- 77-------- 200

05-36- 95 ------25--------- 70

06-36- 304---- 108-------- 196


08-36- 156----- 44-------- 112


04-37- 112----- 30--------- 82

05-37- 338---- 144-------- 194

06-37- 487---- 262-------- 225

08-37-- 52----- 16--------- 36

01-39- 166----- 45-------- 121

03-39- 288---- 110-------- 178



Total -4215---1393--------2822

District Total BODENWEISE BOOTH J W

01-35-- 550---- 367---------- 183

02-35-- 685---- 315---------- 370

03-35--- 87----- 56----------- 31

04-35-- 330---- 189---------- 141

06-35-- 180---- 121----------- 59

07-35--- 96----- 45----------- 51

RD Tot- 1928--- 1093--------- 835

04-36--- 272---- 162--------- 110

05-36---- 95----- 55--------- 40

06-36--- 299----- 126-------- 173

08-36--- 157----- 79--------- 78

RD Tot-- 823---- 409--------- 401

04-37--- 111---- 56----------- 55

05-37--- 335--- 108---------- 227

06-37--- 491--- 113--------- 378

08-37---- 52--- 30----------- 22

RD Tot-- 989-- 307---------- 682


01-39--- 164-- 83----------- 81

03-39--- 290-- 132--------- 158

RD Tot-- 454-- 215--------- 239



Cand Tot- 4194- 2037----- 2157





http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml