I have been in an ongoing dialogue with local radio talk show h0st and commentator , Colin Flaherty , about what created the situation where Republican Tom Kovach won the Jan 2011 Special Election for County Council President despite ceding a serious voter registration disadvantage to Democrat Tim Sheldon. Flaherty's contention is that the traditional Democratic coalition of African-Americans, labor union members and social liberals "let Sheldon down and did not turn out to vote."
Although I don't always agree with his political perspective, I have to concede Colin Flaherty is a bright fellow and in this case has a significant piece of the puzzle.
The numbers below verify that Republicans had a 4.7% higher turnout rate than the Democrats.
Turnout was a problem for Sheldon,but 1929 more Democrats voted than Republicans voted. If he and Kovach had each gotten the same percentage of their own party's voters and split the Others evenly, Sheldon would have won.
Republicans not only brought a higher percentage of their party members out for the Jan special election for New Castle County President,but also got some help from registered Democrats. The Board of Elections does not do the AGP (age,group & party)Report for Special Elections,but by contacting the New Castle County Board of Elections an individual can get a disc of voters who particpated in the special election and create it on your own.
The numbers below were taken from the disc and verify that Kovach had to have gotten at least 1487 Democrats to vote for him.The combined total vote cast by voters other than Democrats equals 15,234 (Republicans----11,935 & Others-----------3,299) . Since Kovach got 16,721, he got at least 1,487 Democratic votes (the difference between 16,721 and 15,234).
The 1,487 minimum means at a verifable minimum 10.7% of the Democrats voted for Kovach.
Of course, this example assumes Kovach received ALL of the Republicans and Others which is doubtful. Whatever number of Republicans and Others voted for Sheldon or the two third party candidate creates the need to assume that the same number of Democrats voted for Kovach. For example , if Kovach got 90% of the Republicans and Others (13,710 out of 15234) it means he had to have gotten 1523 additional Democrats to reach his total. This drives the number of Democrats Kovach would have gotten to 3010 or 21.7% of the Democrats.The more Others and Republicans you assume Sheldon got to vote for him , the more Democrats Kovach had to have gotten.
While Flaherty is right that lackluster Democratic turnout hurt Sheldon, it appears Democrats defecting to Kovach had a deterimental effect as well. We can not know exactly how many Democrats voted for Kovach, but the numbers indicate it was likely better than 1500.
Election Date: 01/13/11
PRESIDENT OF COUNTY COUNCIL
DEMOCRATIC PARTY TIMOTHY P. SHELDON ---------12139------- 41 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY THOMAS H. KOVACH ------ -----16721------- 57 . 5 %
LIBERTARIAN PARTY JAMES EDWARD CHRISTINA--- 151--------- 0 . 5 %
BLUE ENIGMA PARTY JEFFREY BROWN---------- -------- 87---------- 0 . 3 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
From the disc from the Board of Elections:
Votes cast by Democrats-- ---13,864
Votes cast by Republicans----11,935
Votes cast by Others-----------3,299
COUNTY Registration TOTALS as of1-1-11:
Democrats 197198
Republicans 102005
Others 93398
Total 392601
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_ncc.pdf
Turnout by affiliation:
Democrats --------13,864 of 197,198 for 7.0%
Republicans ------11,935 of 102,005 for 11.7%
Others------------ 3299 of 93,398 for 3.5%
Overall turnout --29,098 of 392,601 for 7.4%
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
If Kovach Does Not Increase Support Outside His Arc of Triumph, 2012 Could be his Waterloo
In the last post I noted that six districts which form an arc which overlaps parts the 2nd ,3rd & 8th county council districts spelled the difference between victory and defeat for Republican Tom Kovach in the January 13, 2011 special election for president of New Castle County Council. Kovach beat Democrat Tim Sheldon by 4582 votes countywide,but not including 6 representative districts ( 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th) Kovach would have lost by 223 votes. Kovach won and I am not disputing that,just pointing out that an overdependence on those 6 districts could hurt him in the future.
The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.
As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.
This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.
He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.
Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.
2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%
2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%
2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%
2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%
2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%
2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%
The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.
As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.
This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.
He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.
Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.
2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%
2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%
2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%
2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%
2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%
2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%
Saturday, January 22, 2011
More Indications Relative Turnout was the key to Kovach's Win 1-13-2011
Tom Kovach won in only 12 of 26 Representative Districts in the Jan 13,2001 Special Election for New Castle County Council President, but six districts provided him with a huge enough winning margin that he was able to win countywide by more than 15 percentage points. These six districts are the 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th. Because different parts of a rep district can be in different county council districts the election districts within these representative districts overlap multiple county council districts, but these districts somewhat mirror (thought do not exactly reflect )the combined borders of the 2nd, 3rd & 8th county council districts which make an arc across the northern portion of New Castle County--Kovach's Arc of Triumph, in this election.
Here is a link to a map of the 12 county council districts where you can see the arc the 2nd, 3rd & 8th council district make:
http://www.nccde.org/Council/2005Districts.htm
Here are the results & turnout in Kovach's six most productive rep districts.
The following rep districts have Democratic State reps and Democratic registration edges between 500 to 3000 more registered Ds than Rs:
4th—registered voters—16,571
Kovach won 1373 to 735 for Sheldon---638 winning margin
Total turnout 2126—12.8% turnout
6th----registered voters—17,037
Kovach won 1592 to 530 for Sheldon---1062 winning margin
Total turnout 2129----12.5% turnout
7th-registered voters- 15,225
Kovach won 1536 to 693 for Sheldon---843 winning margin
Total turnout 2247------14.8% turnout
10th-registered voters- 16,697
Kovach won 1167 to 421 for Sheldon---746 winning margin
Total turnout 1591------9.5% turnout
These two districts each have a Republican State Representative and each has between 300 & 900 more Democratic than Republican registered voters:
11th-registered voters- 16,011
Kovach won 969 to 368 for Sheldon---601 winning margin
Total turnout 1347------8.4% turnout
12th-registered voters- 15,589
Kovach won 1543 to 628 for Sheldon---915 winning margin
Total turnout 2181------14.0% turnout
This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
4th Rep District (Wilmington & western suburbs)margin-----638
6th Rep District (Edgemoor)-------------------margin-----1062
7th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)--------margin-----843
10th Rep District(Brandywine Hundred)--------margin----746
11th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)-------margin----601
12th Rep District (Mt Cuba/Yorllyn)-----------margin----915
Winning margin these six--------------------------------4805
Countywide- Kovach-16,721— Sheldon-12,139 -winning margin 4582
Coming into these 6 districts Kovach is down by 223,but he walks away with the election because these districts averaged 12% turnout as a group (5% better than the county as a whole) and because they voted so lopsidedly for Kovach.
Sheldon won more Rep Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near these 6 overperforming districts Kovach had.
Here is what it looked like in the six most productive districts for Sheldon.
The following rep districts each have a Democratic State rep and Democratic registration edges between 5000 to 8000 more registered Ds than Rs:
1st Rep District—registered voters— 13,983
Sheldon won 585 to 197 for Kovach--- 388winning margin
Total turnout 785—5.6% turnout
2nd Rep District----registered voters—13,338
Sheldon won 448 to 92 for Kovach--- 356winning margin
Total turnout 544---- 4.1% turnout
3rd Rep District-registered voters-12,890
Sheldon won 268 to 68 for Kovach--- 200winning margin
Total turnout 337------2.6% turnout
5th Rep District -registered voters- 14,499
Sheldon won 448 to 263 for Kovach--- 185winning margin
Total turnout 720------5.0% turnout
13th Rep District-registered voters-13,421
Sheldon won 319 to 197 for Kovach--- 194winning margin
Total turnout 534------4.0% turnout
16th Rep District-registered voters-13,496
Sheldon won 495 to 100 for Kovach --- 395winning margin
Total turnout 599------4.4% turnout
This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
1st Rep District(Wilmington & Northern suburbs)--margin----- 388
2nd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 356
3rd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 200
5th Rep District(Bear/Glasgow)--------------------margin---- 185
13th Rep District(Elsmere/Richardson Park)--------margin---- 194
16th Rep District (New Castle)------------------- margin---- 395
Winning margin these six------------------------------------1718
While Sheldon won by more than 4-1 in a couple districts and better than 3-1 in another, his most productive districts did not provide the turnout he needed to make the race closer.The average turnout in Sheldon's 6 most productive districts was 4.3% which was 2.7% less than the overall county turnout and ,more importantly,was 7.7% less than the turnout in Kovach's Arc of Triumph.
Jan 2011 registration totals:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_rep.pdf
Jan 13,2011 special elections results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Here is a link to a map of the 12 county council districts where you can see the arc the 2nd, 3rd & 8th council district make:
http://www.nccde.org/Council/2005Districts.htm
Here are the results & turnout in Kovach's six most productive rep districts.
The following rep districts have Democratic State reps and Democratic registration edges between 500 to 3000 more registered Ds than Rs:
4th—registered voters—16,571
Kovach won 1373 to 735 for Sheldon---638 winning margin
Total turnout 2126—12.8% turnout
6th----registered voters—17,037
Kovach won 1592 to 530 for Sheldon---1062 winning margin
Total turnout 2129----12.5% turnout
7th-registered voters- 15,225
Kovach won 1536 to 693 for Sheldon---843 winning margin
Total turnout 2247------14.8% turnout
10th-registered voters- 16,697
Kovach won 1167 to 421 for Sheldon---746 winning margin
Total turnout 1591------9.5% turnout
These two districts each have a Republican State Representative and each has between 300 & 900 more Democratic than Republican registered voters:
11th-registered voters- 16,011
Kovach won 969 to 368 for Sheldon---601 winning margin
Total turnout 1347------8.4% turnout
12th-registered voters- 15,589
Kovach won 1543 to 628 for Sheldon---915 winning margin
Total turnout 2181------14.0% turnout
This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
4th Rep District (Wilmington & western suburbs)margin-----638
6th Rep District (Edgemoor)-------------------margin-----1062
7th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)--------margin-----843
10th Rep District(Brandywine Hundred)--------margin----746
11th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)-------margin----601
12th Rep District (Mt Cuba/Yorllyn)-----------margin----915
Winning margin these six--------------------------------4805
Countywide- Kovach-16,721— Sheldon-12,139 -winning margin 4582
Coming into these 6 districts Kovach is down by 223,but he walks away with the election because these districts averaged 12% turnout as a group (5% better than the county as a whole) and because they voted so lopsidedly for Kovach.
Sheldon won more Rep Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near these 6 overperforming districts Kovach had.
Here is what it looked like in the six most productive districts for Sheldon.
The following rep districts each have a Democratic State rep and Democratic registration edges between 5000 to 8000 more registered Ds than Rs:
1st Rep District—registered voters— 13,983
Sheldon won 585 to 197 for Kovach--- 388winning margin
Total turnout 785—5.6% turnout
2nd Rep District----registered voters—13,338
Sheldon won 448 to 92 for Kovach--- 356winning margin
Total turnout 544---- 4.1% turnout
3rd Rep District-registered voters-12,890
Sheldon won 268 to 68 for Kovach--- 200winning margin
Total turnout 337------2.6% turnout
5th Rep District -registered voters- 14,499
Sheldon won 448 to 263 for Kovach--- 185winning margin
Total turnout 720------5.0% turnout
13th Rep District-registered voters-13,421
Sheldon won 319 to 197 for Kovach--- 194winning margin
Total turnout 534------4.0% turnout
16th Rep District-registered voters-13,496
Sheldon won 495 to 100 for Kovach --- 395winning margin
Total turnout 599------4.4% turnout
This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
1st Rep District(Wilmington & Northern suburbs)--margin----- 388
2nd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 356
3rd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 200
5th Rep District(Bear/Glasgow)--------------------margin---- 185
13th Rep District(Elsmere/Richardson Park)--------margin---- 194
16th Rep District (New Castle)------------------- margin---- 395
Winning margin these six------------------------------------1718
While Sheldon won by more than 4-1 in a couple districts and better than 3-1 in another, his most productive districts did not provide the turnout he needed to make the race closer.The average turnout in Sheldon's 6 most productive districts was 4.3% which was 2.7% less than the overall county turnout and ,more importantly,was 7.7% less than the turnout in Kovach's Arc of Triumph.
Jan 2011 registration totals:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2011/01_11_rep.pdf
Jan 13,2011 special elections results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Kovach won countywide on 1-13-2011,but his popularity was not across the board. He won big in a few areas.
Republican Tom Kovach won the Special Election for New Castle County Council President by 4852 votes and secured 57.5 % of the vote.He did not win big by winning all over the county,but by winning with huge margins in several locations that had higher turnout than the areas where his opponent Democrat County Councilman Tim Sheldon did well.
Sheldon won more State Representative Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near the numbers in some overperforming districts Kovach won.
Sheldon's winning margin did not break 400 votes in any of the 14 districts he won and overall turnout exceeded 900 in only one district in which Sheldon won. Kovach's winning margin exceeded 500 votes in 8 of the 12 districts in which Kovach won, including 3 in which the winning margin exceeded 840. Overall turnout in each of the 12 districts in which Kovach won was at least 900 with 4 having over 2000 total votes cast and another 7 having over 1000 total votes cast.
People did not come out to vote as much in areas where Sheldon was strong. They came out in large enough numbers in selected areas that favored Kovach which created an upset in a race when the registration edge favored the Democrats.
New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some Northern suburbs-
Sheldon:585-197 winning margin 388
2nd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:448-92 winning margin 356
3rd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:268-68 winning margin 200
4th-Wilmington & some Western suburbs-
Kovach:1373-735 winning margin 638
5th-Bear/Glasgow-
Sheldon:448-263 winning margin 185
6th-Edgemoor-
Kovach:1592-530 winning margin 1062
7th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach: 1536-693 winning margin 843
8th-Southern New Castle County –
Kovach: 540-461 winning margin 79
9th-Southern New Castle County-
Kovach:1061-629 winning margin of 432
10th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:1167-421 winning margin of 746
11th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:969-368 winning margin of 601
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-
Kovach: 1543-628 winning margin 915
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-
Sheldon:319-197 winning margin 122
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-
Sheldon:369-319 winning margin 50
16th-New Castle-
Sheldon:495-100 winning margin 395
17th-New Castle-
Sheldon:463-347 winning margin 116
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-
Sheldon:389-339 winning margin 50
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-
Sheldon:487-358 winning margin 129
20th-Hockessin/Stanton-
Kovach:1097-535 winning margin 562
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Rte 2-
Kovach792-538 winning margin254
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-
Kovach:1143-598 winning margin 545
23rd-Western Newark-
Sheldon:479-421 winning margin 58
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-
Sheldon:370-298 winning margin 72
25th-Eastern Newark-
Sheldon:310-302 winning margin 8
26th-Bear Glasgow-
Sheldon:164-122 winning margin 42
27th-Glasgow-
Kovach:486-409 winning margin 77
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Sheldon won more State Representative Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near the numbers in some overperforming districts Kovach won.
Sheldon's winning margin did not break 400 votes in any of the 14 districts he won and overall turnout exceeded 900 in only one district in which Sheldon won. Kovach's winning margin exceeded 500 votes in 8 of the 12 districts in which Kovach won, including 3 in which the winning margin exceeded 840. Overall turnout in each of the 12 districts in which Kovach won was at least 900 with 4 having over 2000 total votes cast and another 7 having over 1000 total votes cast.
People did not come out to vote as much in areas where Sheldon was strong. They came out in large enough numbers in selected areas that favored Kovach which created an upset in a race when the registration edge favored the Democrats.
New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some Northern suburbs-
Sheldon:585-197 winning margin 388
2nd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:448-92 winning margin 356
3rd-Wilmington-
Sheldon:268-68 winning margin 200
4th-Wilmington & some Western suburbs-
Kovach:1373-735 winning margin 638
5th-Bear/Glasgow-
Sheldon:448-263 winning margin 185
6th-Edgemoor-
Kovach:1592-530 winning margin 1062
7th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach: 1536-693 winning margin 843
8th-Southern New Castle County –
Kovach: 540-461 winning margin 79
9th-Southern New Castle County-
Kovach:1061-629 winning margin of 432
10th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:1167-421 winning margin of 746
11th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:969-368 winning margin of 601
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-
Kovach: 1543-628 winning margin 915
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-
Sheldon:319-197 winning margin 122
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-
Sheldon:369-319 winning margin 50
16th-New Castle-
Sheldon:495-100 winning margin 395
17th-New Castle-
Sheldon:463-347 winning margin 116
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-
Sheldon:389-339 winning margin 50
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-
Sheldon:487-358 winning margin 129
20th-Hockessin/Stanton-
Kovach:1097-535 winning margin 562
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Rte 2-
Kovach792-538 winning margin254
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-
Kovach:1143-598 winning margin 545
23rd-Western Newark-
Sheldon:479-421 winning margin 58
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-
Sheldon:370-298 winning margin 72
25th-Eastern Newark-
Sheldon:310-302 winning margin 8
26th-Bear Glasgow-
Sheldon:164-122 winning margin 42
27th-Glasgow-
Kovach:486-409 winning margin 77
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Thursday, December 2, 2010
14th and 38th Rep Districts have twice the percentage of absentee voters as state average for last 3 elections
I was asked if the higher proportion of absentee ballots cast in the 14th & 38th Representative Districts in 2010 was part of an ongoing pattern and the answer is yes. Each of these districts had a percentage of absentee voters to machine voters that was twice the statewide average for each of the last 3 elections (2006, 2008 & 2010). Unfortunately, prior to 2006 the delaware Elections Commissioner's website shows only total votes cast and does not break down votes cast between machine and absentee votes.
Here are the numbers:
2010-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 307,367 votes cast, 11,660 were absentee votes or
3.8% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of of 12,005 votes cast, 934 were absentee votes or
7.8% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 11,583 votes cast, 907 were absentee votes or
7.8 % of the were absentee
2008-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 398,134votes cast, 21,039 were absentee votes or
5.3 % of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 14,024 votes cast, 1,624 were absentee votes or
11.6% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 13,433 votes cast, 1,504 were absentee votes or
11.2% of the were absentee
2006-U S Representative race
Statewide-- out of 251,694 votes cast, 8,150 were absentee votes or
3.2% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 9,512 votes cast, 585 were absentee votes or
6.2 % of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 9,380 votes cast,638 were absentee votes
6.8% of the were absentee
It does not appear to be related to be a concerted partisan effort in either direction. Republican Christine O'Donnell lost in the 14th to Joe Biden in 2008 and Chris Coons in 2010.She won in the 38th in 2010 over Coons, while losing to Biden by 480 votes in 2008. Republican Mike Castle beat Dennis Spivack in each of the districts in 2006.
The Castle -Spivack race was used for 2006 because factoring in absentee write-in votes in the US Senate race in which O'Donnell got over 11,000 write-in votes looked like a cumbersome process due to the way the website recorded write-in votes.
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
Here are the numbers:
2010-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 307,367 votes cast, 11,660 were absentee votes or
3.8% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of of 12,005 votes cast, 934 were absentee votes or
7.8% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 11,583 votes cast, 907 were absentee votes or
7.8 % of the were absentee
2008-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 398,134votes cast, 21,039 were absentee votes or
5.3 % of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 14,024 votes cast, 1,624 were absentee votes or
11.6% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 13,433 votes cast, 1,504 were absentee votes or
11.2% of the were absentee
2006-U S Representative race
Statewide-- out of 251,694 votes cast, 8,150 were absentee votes or
3.2% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 9,512 votes cast, 585 were absentee votes or
6.2 % of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 9,380 votes cast,638 were absentee votes
6.8% of the were absentee
It does not appear to be related to be a concerted partisan effort in either direction. Republican Christine O'Donnell lost in the 14th to Joe Biden in 2008 and Chris Coons in 2010.She won in the 38th in 2010 over Coons, while losing to Biden by 480 votes in 2008. Republican Mike Castle beat Dennis Spivack in each of the districts in 2006.
The Castle -Spivack race was used for 2006 because factoring in absentee write-in votes in the US Senate race in which O'Donnell got over 11,000 write-in votes looked like a cumbersome process due to the way the website recorded write-in votes.
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Some Areas downstate had a higher proportion of absentee voting in 2010
While Kent & Sussex County supplied less than half the votes cast in the 2010 election in Delaware, Sussex County had pockets of voters where the percentage of absentee ballots cast was much higher than upstate districts.
There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.
In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.
US Senator
-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State
COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
It was a different story with absentee balloting.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Statewide totals
Candidate**MachineVotes**Absentee**********Total
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************
5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/absentee/2010/2010_gen_data.shtml
Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.
Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:
New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
2nd-Wilmington-308
3rd-Wilmington-111
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
5th-Bear/Glasgow-100
6th-Edgemore-235
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-115
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
20th-Hoekessin/Stanton-297
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111
27th-Glasgow-134
Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
29th-Hartley/Marydel-293
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
31st-Dover-424
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344
34th-Camden-Wyoming/Woodside-392
Sussex
14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
35th-Bridgeville/Greenwood-265
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907
39th-Seaford/Blades-276
40th-Laurel/Delmar-228
41st-Millsboro/Frankford/Gumboro-417
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwres.shtml
There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.
In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.
US Senator
-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State
COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
It was a different story with absentee balloting.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Statewide totals
Candidate**MachineVotes**Absentee**********Total
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************
5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/absentee/2010/2010_gen_data.shtml
Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.
Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:
New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
2nd-Wilmington-308
3rd-Wilmington-111
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
5th-Bear/Glasgow-100
6th-Edgemore-235
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-115
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
20th-Hoekessin/Stanton-297
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111
27th-Glasgow-134
Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
29th-Hartley/Marydel-293
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
31st-Dover-424
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344
34th-Camden-Wyoming/Woodside-392
Sussex
14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
35th-Bridgeville/Greenwood-265
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907
39th-Seaford/Blades-276
40th-Laurel/Delmar-228
41st-Millsboro/Frankford/Gumboro-417
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwres.shtml
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose
Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.
Here are the current registration numbers:
County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total
New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml
In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:
US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%
US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%
State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%
Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%
I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %
SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.
Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html
Here are the current registration numbers:
County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total
New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml
In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:
US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%
US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%
State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%
Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%
I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %
SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.
Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html
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