While Kent & Sussex County supplied less than half the votes cast in the 2010 election in Delaware, Sussex County had pockets of voters where the percentage of absentee ballots cast was much higher than upstate districts.
There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.
In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.
US Senator
-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State
COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
It was a different story with absentee balloting.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Statewide totals
Candidate**MachineVotes**Absentee**********Total
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************
5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/absentee/2010/2010_gen_data.shtml
Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.
Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:
New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
2nd-Wilmington-308
3rd-Wilmington-111
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
5th-Bear/Glasgow-100
6th-Edgemore-235
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
18th-Stanton/Pleasantville-115
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
20th-Hoekessin/Stanton-297
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111
27th-Glasgow-134
Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
29th-Hartley/Marydel-293
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
31st-Dover-424
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344
34th-Camden-Wyoming/Woodside-392
Sussex
14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
35th-Bridgeville/Greenwood-265
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907
39th-Seaford/Blades-276
40th-Laurel/Delmar-228
41st-Millsboro/Frankford/Gumboro-417
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwres.shtml
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose
Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.
Here are the current registration numbers:
County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total
New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml
In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:
US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%
US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%
State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%
Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%
I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %
SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.
Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html
Here are the current registration numbers:
County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total
New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml
In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:
US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%
US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%
State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%
Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%
I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml
Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %
SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.
Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html
Sunday, October 3, 2010
19th senate Primary appears to have increased turnout in the US Senate primary/this area could be November battleground
GOP primary turnout statewide was 32% . Sussex County turnout was 38.6%. Turnout in the 19th State Senate District was 42%.
Despite accounting for 5.4% of the registered Republicans statewide (9,846 out of 182,796)the 19th senate district accounted for 7.3% of the US Senate primary voters on primary day(4215 out of 57,584). Since this a district that O'Donnell won better than two to one, this higher turnout obviously helped her.
We don't need totally to just assume that the local state senate contest is what drew many voters out. The numbers verify that to a degree. At seven of 16 polling places no more people voted in the US Senate race than the 19th state senate race.At four out of 16 polling places more voters cast ballots in the local state senate race than in the US Senate race. In the 4th of th 35th,the 8th of the 36th,the 6th of the 37th and the 3rd of the 39th a few more voters cast ballots in the 19th State Senate race. In the 6th of the 35th and 5th of the 36th and the 8th of the 37th the number of votes was exactly the same. In any of the tie districts if any voters came in to vote only in the US Senate race, it means that some others voted only in the local race. At any rate, these numbers appear to prove that at seven out of 16 polling places the US Senate race did not generate more interest ( as gauged by actual votes cast) than the local state senate race.
It is a handful of voters and it won't matter unless the winning margin is narrow,but it is curious that in the highest profile statewide Republican primary in years in which the two candidates appeared to represent clearly different views of what the Republican Party is or should be, that some voters would see that contest as no more compelling than their state senate contest. It is not possible to tell whether these voters are waiting until November and will vote for the GOP nominee as a matter of course and were sitting out the intraparty squabble or viewed the Castle/O'Donnell race as a "pox on both houses" and will not vote for O'Donnell or will not vote at all in this race in November.
State Senator Booth does not have a general election opponent and possibly people realized the primary would settle who takes the seat and that became some of the motivation.
Although Booth is unopposed in the general election, 3 out of four state rep districts whose parts comprise the 19th state senate district have contests for state representative which should keep turnout respectable relative to the statewide turnout.The 35th, 36th and 37th each has a contest. In the 39th which supplies only two of the 16 election districs in this senate district , Rep Daniel Short is unopposed.
Since in these four rep districts O'Donnell did particularly well in 2008's US Senate general election, these merit watching this year. She beat Joe Biden in the 35th and the 39th .She lost the 36th by only 130 votes while losing by over 600 in the 37th.
If Chris Coons is to beat her he needs to offset a possible loss in this area with votes in other (most likely upstate) areas of the state and cut into her margin in this area. I am betting we will be seeing him at the Apple Scrapple Festival in Bridgeville next weekend.
District Democrats Republicans Others Total
01 OF 35- 1,082 ----1,247 -------587 ---2,916
02 OF 35- 1,942---- 1,621------- 981--- 4,544
03 OF 35- --247-------264------- 142----- 653
04 OF 35- 1,217----- -780------- 495--- 2,492
06 OF 35- --482------ 468------- 306--- 1,256
07 OF 35--- 319------ 228------- 161----- 708
RD Total--5,289-----4,608------2,672---12,569
04 OF 36- 1,017------ 777------- 604--- 2,398
05 OF 36--- 260------ 254------- 154----- 668
06 OF 36- 1,106------ 768------- 545--- 2,419
08 OF 36--- 629------ 386------- 273--- 1,288
RD Total- 3,012---- 2,185----- 1,576--- 6,773
04 OF 37-- -179------ 234------- 118----- 531
05 OF 37--- 464------ 639------- 272--- 1,375
06 OF 37--1,130------ 948------- 578--- 2,656
08 OF 37--- 248------ 136------- 106----- 490
RD Total- 2,021---- 1,957----- 1,074--- 5,052
01 OF 39--- 264------ 405------- 168----- 837
03 OF 39--- 572------ 691------- 328--- 1,591
RD Total--- 836---- 1,096------- 496--- 2,428
SD Total- 11,158--- 9,846----- 5,818--- 26,822
UNITED STATES SENATOR
District Total CASTLE M O'DONNELL
01-35 ---556--- 136----- ----420
02-35-- -688-- 198--------- 490
03-35-- --89--- 23---------- 66
04-35- --329--- 102-------- 227
06-35- 180----- 40--------- 140
07-35- 98------ 33--------- 65
04-36- 277----- 77-------- 200
05-36- 95 ------25--------- 70
06-36- 304---- 108-------- 196
08-36- 156----- 44-------- 112
04-37- 112----- 30--------- 82
05-37- 338---- 144-------- 194
06-37- 487---- 262-------- 225
08-37-- 52----- 16--------- 36
01-39- 166----- 45-------- 121
03-39- 288---- 110-------- 178
Total -4215---1393--------2822
District Total BODENWEISE BOOTH J W
01-35-- 550---- 367---------- 183
02-35-- 685---- 315---------- 370
03-35--- 87----- 56----------- 31
04-35-- 330---- 189---------- 141
06-35-- 180---- 121----------- 59
07-35--- 96----- 45----------- 51
RD Tot- 1928--- 1093--------- 835
04-36--- 272---- 162--------- 110
05-36---- 95----- 55--------- 40
06-36--- 299----- 126-------- 173
08-36--- 157----- 79--------- 78
RD Tot-- 823---- 409--------- 401
04-37--- 111---- 56----------- 55
05-37--- 335--- 108---------- 227
06-37--- 491--- 113--------- 378
08-37---- 52--- 30----------- 22
RD Tot-- 989-- 307---------- 682
01-39--- 164-- 83----------- 81
03-39--- 290-- 132--------- 158
RD Tot-- 454-- 215--------- 239
Cand Tot- 4194- 2037----- 2157
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
Despite accounting for 5.4% of the registered Republicans statewide (9,846 out of 182,796)the 19th senate district accounted for 7.3% of the US Senate primary voters on primary day(4215 out of 57,584). Since this a district that O'Donnell won better than two to one, this higher turnout obviously helped her.
We don't need totally to just assume that the local state senate contest is what drew many voters out. The numbers verify that to a degree. At seven of 16 polling places no more people voted in the US Senate race than the 19th state senate race.At four out of 16 polling places more voters cast ballots in the local state senate race than in the US Senate race. In the 4th of th 35th,the 8th of the 36th,the 6th of the 37th and the 3rd of the 39th a few more voters cast ballots in the 19th State Senate race. In the 6th of the 35th and 5th of the 36th and the 8th of the 37th the number of votes was exactly the same. In any of the tie districts if any voters came in to vote only in the US Senate race, it means that some others voted only in the local race. At any rate, these numbers appear to prove that at seven out of 16 polling places the US Senate race did not generate more interest ( as gauged by actual votes cast) than the local state senate race.
It is a handful of voters and it won't matter unless the winning margin is narrow,but it is curious that in the highest profile statewide Republican primary in years in which the two candidates appeared to represent clearly different views of what the Republican Party is or should be, that some voters would see that contest as no more compelling than their state senate contest. It is not possible to tell whether these voters are waiting until November and will vote for the GOP nominee as a matter of course and were sitting out the intraparty squabble or viewed the Castle/O'Donnell race as a "pox on both houses" and will not vote for O'Donnell or will not vote at all in this race in November.
State Senator Booth does not have a general election opponent and possibly people realized the primary would settle who takes the seat and that became some of the motivation.
Although Booth is unopposed in the general election, 3 out of four state rep districts whose parts comprise the 19th state senate district have contests for state representative which should keep turnout respectable relative to the statewide turnout.The 35th, 36th and 37th each has a contest. In the 39th which supplies only two of the 16 election districs in this senate district , Rep Daniel Short is unopposed.
Since in these four rep districts O'Donnell did particularly well in 2008's US Senate general election, these merit watching this year. She beat Joe Biden in the 35th and the 39th .She lost the 36th by only 130 votes while losing by over 600 in the 37th.
If Chris Coons is to beat her he needs to offset a possible loss in this area with votes in other (most likely upstate) areas of the state and cut into her margin in this area. I am betting we will be seeing him at the Apple Scrapple Festival in Bridgeville next weekend.
District Democrats Republicans Others Total
01 OF 35- 1,082 ----1,247 -------587 ---2,916
02 OF 35- 1,942---- 1,621------- 981--- 4,544
03 OF 35- --247-------264------- 142----- 653
04 OF 35- 1,217----- -780------- 495--- 2,492
06 OF 35- --482------ 468------- 306--- 1,256
07 OF 35--- 319------ 228------- 161----- 708
RD Total--5,289-----4,608------2,672---12,569
04 OF 36- 1,017------ 777------- 604--- 2,398
05 OF 36--- 260------ 254------- 154----- 668
06 OF 36- 1,106------ 768------- 545--- 2,419
08 OF 36--- 629------ 386------- 273--- 1,288
RD Total- 3,012---- 2,185----- 1,576--- 6,773
04 OF 37-- -179------ 234------- 118----- 531
05 OF 37--- 464------ 639------- 272--- 1,375
06 OF 37--1,130------ 948------- 578--- 2,656
08 OF 37--- 248------ 136------- 106----- 490
RD Total- 2,021---- 1,957----- 1,074--- 5,052
01 OF 39--- 264------ 405------- 168----- 837
03 OF 39--- 572------ 691------- 328--- 1,591
RD Total--- 836---- 1,096------- 496--- 2,428
SD Total- 11,158--- 9,846----- 5,818--- 26,822
UNITED STATES SENATOR
District Total CASTLE M O'DONNELL
01-35 ---556--- 136----- ----420
02-35-- -688-- 198--------- 490
03-35-- --89--- 23---------- 66
04-35- --329--- 102-------- 227
06-35- 180----- 40--------- 140
07-35- 98------ 33--------- 65
04-36- 277----- 77-------- 200
05-36- 95 ------25--------- 70
06-36- 304---- 108-------- 196
08-36- 156----- 44-------- 112
04-37- 112----- 30--------- 82
05-37- 338---- 144-------- 194
06-37- 487---- 262-------- 225
08-37-- 52----- 16--------- 36
01-39- 166----- 45-------- 121
03-39- 288---- 110-------- 178
Total -4215---1393--------2822
District Total BODENWEISE BOOTH J W
01-35-- 550---- 367---------- 183
02-35-- 685---- 315---------- 370
03-35--- 87----- 56----------- 31
04-35-- 330---- 189---------- 141
06-35-- 180---- 121----------- 59
07-35--- 96----- 45----------- 51
RD Tot- 1928--- 1093--------- 835
04-36--- 272---- 162--------- 110
05-36---- 95----- 55--------- 40
06-36--- 299----- 126-------- 173
08-36--- 157----- 79--------- 78
RD Tot-- 823---- 409--------- 401
04-37--- 111---- 56----------- 55
05-37--- 335--- 108---------- 227
06-37--- 491--- 113--------- 378
08-37---- 52--- 30----------- 22
RD Tot-- 989-- 307---------- 682
01-39--- 164-- 83----------- 81
03-39--- 290-- 132--------- 158
RD Tot-- 454-- 215--------- 239
Cand Tot- 4194- 2037----- 2157
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
Friday, September 17, 2010
I thought she was a regional candidate and O'Donnell's win affirms that
Like many observers I predicted US Rep Mike Castle would defeat Christine O'Donnell in the GOP US Senate primary and I was wrong. In my Aug 29,2009 post I mentioned I perceived her greatest chance would come from the increased Republican registrations in Kent & Sussex Counties since 2000 and decreased Republican registrations in New Castle County over the last decade. On this point I was correct,but I did not anticipate the type of turnout we saw in Sussex County.
While voter turnout statewide was up from what I predicted at 8-10% based on prior turnout, that was most prevalent in Sussex County where O'Donnell almost beat Castle 2-1.
Kent & Sussex provided 18,653 (Sussex) + 9669 (Kent) for 28,322 votes out of 81,300 registered Republican voters .
New Castle County provided 29,262 votes out of 101,496 registered voters
Despite having 20,196 fewer registered Republicans, Kent and Sussex only provided 940 fewer voters. This unheard of turnout combined with O'Donnell's popularity South of the C&D Canal to give her the statewide victory.
UNITED STATES SENATOR--New Castle--Kent----Sussex----State
CASTLE MICHAEL N.--------- -16,891-----3,518---6,612-----27,021
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE------ 12,371-----6,151---12,041----30,563
Office Total----------- ----------29,262-----9,669---18,653----57,584
Republican Registration by County
New Castle-----101,496
Kent-------------32,948
Sussex----------48,352
Total-----------182,796
Statewide turnout was 31.5%
New Castle County----28.8%
Kent----------------------29.3%
Sussex-------------------38.6%
As she heads into the November general election this is the registration disadvantage O'Donnell faces:
County------- Democrats---- Republicans-- Others-------- Total
Kent ------------46,208----- 32,948------ -26,450------ 105,606
New Castle--- -194,504----- 101,496------ 92,301------- 388,301
Sussex ---------52,026------- 48,352------ 27,461------- 127,839
Statewide----- 292,738------ 182,796----- 146,212------- 621,746
I think the balancing act ahead of her is to expand beyond the Tea Party supporters to include at least some more moderates in her coalition, while at the same time not being seen as backing off of the values that initially attracted her primary supporters to her in the first place.
A more daring strategy with more risk might be to not try to expand the coalition as much as energize her base and try to get every possible general election voter that agrees with the values she espoused to win the primary. This strategy assumes a low turnout among the Democrats or a perception that there is a largely untapped number of non-Republican Tea Party adherents who have just been waiting for the primary to be over so they could participate.
Either of these options creates the possibility of alienating either her Tea Party supporters, who have been with her as she stormed the Republican Party, or the moderates who may help her move towards winning an election.
If she plans on building a big Republican tent that is inclusive of those who had previously opposed her,O'Donnell has some work ahead.
While the State GOP website now has a link to her campaign and Party Chair Tom Ross has called for party unity, he did mention by name either O'Donnell or Glen Urquhart, who defeated party supported Michelle Rollins in the US House race in his statement on the website.
http://www.delawaregop.com/NewsBack.aspx?guid=d66f4fa3-8871-4345-9c82-9809a9f36e75
An excerpt from a candidate profile in the Ny Times spells out some of her conservative ideals:
"When Ms. O’Donnell ran for the Senate in 2006, she described herself in an interview as, “Republican, but not a Delaware Republican.”
Ms. O’Donnell has taken positions against federal financing for stem cell research, is opposed to abortion even in cases of rape and favors tough penalties against businesses that hire illegal immigrants. She has also suggested in past television interviews that evolution is soft science, and questioned the utility of financing AIDS programs. "
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/us/politics/16odonnell.html
I am wondering where Republicans who consider themselves fiscal conservatives and social moderates will find a place in her campaign.
If she concedes this group (which I would contend is more prevalent in New Castle County based on her defeat in that county in the primary)to Chris Coons in the interest of political purity she may not fare as well in November as she did on primary day.
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20100901.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwoff_kwns.shtml
While voter turnout statewide was up from what I predicted at 8-10% based on prior turnout, that was most prevalent in Sussex County where O'Donnell almost beat Castle 2-1.
Kent & Sussex provided 18,653 (Sussex) + 9669 (Kent) for 28,322 votes out of 81,300 registered Republican voters .
New Castle County provided 29,262 votes out of 101,496 registered voters
Despite having 20,196 fewer registered Republicans, Kent and Sussex only provided 940 fewer voters. This unheard of turnout combined with O'Donnell's popularity South of the C&D Canal to give her the statewide victory.
UNITED STATES SENATOR--New Castle--Kent----Sussex----State
CASTLE MICHAEL N.--------- -16,891-----3,518---6,612-----27,021
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE------ 12,371-----6,151---12,041----30,563
Office Total----------- ----------29,262-----9,669---18,653----57,584
Republican Registration by County
New Castle-----101,496
Kent-------------32,948
Sussex----------48,352
Total-----------182,796
Statewide turnout was 31.5%
New Castle County----28.8%
Kent----------------------29.3%
Sussex-------------------38.6%
As she heads into the November general election this is the registration disadvantage O'Donnell faces:
County------- Democrats---- Republicans-- Others-------- Total
Kent ------------46,208----- 32,948------ -26,450------ 105,606
New Castle--- -194,504----- 101,496------ 92,301------- 388,301
Sussex ---------52,026------- 48,352------ 27,461------- 127,839
Statewide----- 292,738------ 182,796----- 146,212------- 621,746
I think the balancing act ahead of her is to expand beyond the Tea Party supporters to include at least some more moderates in her coalition, while at the same time not being seen as backing off of the values that initially attracted her primary supporters to her in the first place.
A more daring strategy with more risk might be to not try to expand the coalition as much as energize her base and try to get every possible general election voter that agrees with the values she espoused to win the primary. This strategy assumes a low turnout among the Democrats or a perception that there is a largely untapped number of non-Republican Tea Party adherents who have just been waiting for the primary to be over so they could participate.
Either of these options creates the possibility of alienating either her Tea Party supporters, who have been with her as she stormed the Republican Party, or the moderates who may help her move towards winning an election.
If she plans on building a big Republican tent that is inclusive of those who had previously opposed her,O'Donnell has some work ahead.
While the State GOP website now has a link to her campaign and Party Chair Tom Ross has called for party unity, he did mention by name either O'Donnell or Glen Urquhart, who defeated party supported Michelle Rollins in the US House race in his statement on the website.
http://www.delawaregop.com/NewsBack.aspx?guid=d66f4fa3-8871-4345-9c82-9809a9f36e75
An excerpt from a candidate profile in the Ny Times spells out some of her conservative ideals:
"When Ms. O’Donnell ran for the Senate in 2006, she described herself in an interview as, “Republican, but not a Delaware Republican.”
Ms. O’Donnell has taken positions against federal financing for stem cell research, is opposed to abortion even in cases of rape and favors tough penalties against businesses that hire illegal immigrants. She has also suggested in past television interviews that evolution is soft science, and questioned the utility of financing AIDS programs. "
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/us/politics/16odonnell.html
I am wondering where Republicans who consider themselves fiscal conservatives and social moderates will find a place in her campaign.
If she concedes this group (which I would contend is more prevalent in New Castle County based on her defeat in that county in the primary)to Chris Coons in the interest of political purity she may not fare as well in November as she did on primary day.
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20100901.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwoff_kwns.shtml
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Pattern of DropUp in Democratic Statewide Primary
Richard Korn won the Democratic Primary for Auditor on September 14, 2010. One of the realities from Tuesday's results is voter drop off for this race. 34,721 Delaware Democrats voted in the Treasurer's race and only 32,736 voted in the Auditor's race. 1,985 Democrats ( about 5% of those who entered the voting booth) passed up the opportunity to vote in the Auditor's race.
There were 7 state representative primaries and one state senate primary, but in many parts of the State in New Castle County and Sussex County the only races on the ballot were State Treasurer, Auditor of Accounts and a countywide row office. In Kent County there were no countywide or local races.
In Sussex and New Castle Counties hundreds apparently voted for Treasurer, skipped the Auditor's race and then voted in the local row ofice. What would concern me if I was the Democratic candidate in this race is that the highest portion of voters in actual numbers and percentage of voters skipping this race was in New Castle County which is the most populus of the three counties and the most Democratic. While 1,523 fewer voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race in New Castle County, the difference in turnout in the Sheriff's race is only 36 votes fewer. While 240 fewer Sussex County voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race, the difference in the Recorder of Deeds from the Treasurer's is only 35 fewer voters.
in 2006 Michael Dalto lost to Tom Wagner by 18,000 votes and the dropoff between the treasurer's race and Auditor's race was 2,326.Since over 26,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2006, it is entirely possible there is a higher proportion of the dropoff since Democrats make up more of the voting pool.
We know for sure that the 1,985 voters who did not vote in Tuesday's primary for Auditor were all Democrats who had taken the time to go vote.
Getting 2,000 people to not dropoff will not be THE deciding factor unless the winning margin is razor thin, but if the general election is even somewhat close convincing the primary voters to vote again in November and complete the ballot could make an impact on the outcome.
Statewide Results
Treasurer
Flowers---------18,841
Jones-Potter----15,880
Total------------34,721
Auditor
Korn------------17,639
Matluskey-------15,097
Total-----------32,736
New Castle County
Treasurer
Flowers---------12,300
Jones-Potter----11,468
Total------------23,768
Auditor
Korn------------12,339
Matluskey-------9,906
Total------------22,245
1523 voters dropped of from Treasurer to Auditor (6% dropoff)
Sheriff
Navarro--------15,032
Walsh------------8710
Total------------23,742
Sussex County
Treasurer
Flowers--------4,089
Jones-Potter---2,583
Total-----------6,672
Auditor
Korn-----------3,201
Matluskey----3,231
Total-----------6,432
240 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (3% dropoff)
Recorder of Deeds
Brady--- ------3785
Roach---------2852
Total-----------6637
Kent
Treasurer
Flowers---------2,452
Jones-Potter----1,829
Total------------4,281
Auditor
Korn------------2,099
Matluskey-------1,960
Total-----------4,059
222 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (5%)
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general_office.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml
There were 7 state representative primaries and one state senate primary, but in many parts of the State in New Castle County and Sussex County the only races on the ballot were State Treasurer, Auditor of Accounts and a countywide row office. In Kent County there were no countywide or local races.
In Sussex and New Castle Counties hundreds apparently voted for Treasurer, skipped the Auditor's race and then voted in the local row ofice. What would concern me if I was the Democratic candidate in this race is that the highest portion of voters in actual numbers and percentage of voters skipping this race was in New Castle County which is the most populus of the three counties and the most Democratic. While 1,523 fewer voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race in New Castle County, the difference in turnout in the Sheriff's race is only 36 votes fewer. While 240 fewer Sussex County voters took part in the Auditor's race than the Treasurer's race, the difference in the Recorder of Deeds from the Treasurer's is only 35 fewer voters.
in 2006 Michael Dalto lost to Tom Wagner by 18,000 votes and the dropoff between the treasurer's race and Auditor's race was 2,326.Since over 26,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2006, it is entirely possible there is a higher proportion of the dropoff since Democrats make up more of the voting pool.
We know for sure that the 1,985 voters who did not vote in Tuesday's primary for Auditor were all Democrats who had taken the time to go vote.
Getting 2,000 people to not dropoff will not be THE deciding factor unless the winning margin is razor thin, but if the general election is even somewhat close convincing the primary voters to vote again in November and complete the ballot could make an impact on the outcome.
Statewide Results
Treasurer
Flowers---------18,841
Jones-Potter----15,880
Total------------34,721
Auditor
Korn------------17,639
Matluskey-------15,097
Total-----------32,736
New Castle County
Treasurer
Flowers---------12,300
Jones-Potter----11,468
Total------------23,768
Auditor
Korn------------12,339
Matluskey-------9,906
Total------------22,245
1523 voters dropped of from Treasurer to Auditor (6% dropoff)
Sheriff
Navarro--------15,032
Walsh------------8710
Total------------23,742
Sussex County
Treasurer
Flowers--------4,089
Jones-Potter---2,583
Total-----------6,672
Auditor
Korn-----------3,201
Matluskey----3,231
Total-----------6,432
240 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (3% dropoff)
Recorder of Deeds
Brady--- ------3785
Roach---------2852
Total-----------6637
Kent
Treasurer
Flowers---------2,452
Jones-Potter----1,829
Total------------4,281
Auditor
Korn------------2,099
Matluskey-------1,960
Total-----------4,059
222 voters dropped off from Treasurer to Auditor (5%)
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general_office.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml
Saturday, September 11, 2010
State Senate Primary may increase impact of the 19th State senate District in GOP statewide primary
In 2006 14,386 Republicans voted in the U.S. Senate race in which 2505 votes went for Christine O’Donnell. 301 votes were cast in the 35th Rep District, 367 votes were cast in the 36th Rep District. 469 votes were cast in the 37th Rep District.1137 votes (of which O’Donnell got 130 votes) were cast in these three Rep Districts. These 3 districts accounted for 7% of the total votes cast in the statewide primary.
In 2004’s 21,670 votes were cast statewide in the GOP primary for Governor with 590 cast in the 35th, 729 cast in the 36th and 813 cast in the 37 th . These districts accounted for 2132 votes cast or 9% of votes cast statewide.
In 2008 in the GOP primary for Governor the 35th accounted for 1094 votes, the 36th accounted for 1564 and the 37th accounted for 1746. 4404 votes were cast in these 3 rep districts or 15 % of the 28,972 total votes cast statewide in that race.
In 2004 and 2006 none of these districts had a local primary,but in 2010 there is hotly contested race for the 19th State Senate seat which has at least four election districts in each of these Rep Districts which comprise 14 of the 16 election districts in the 19th Senate District.
In 2008 when the relative impact statewide of these three districts was significantly higher, there were local primaries . Sussex County Council District 2 and 3 each had a GOP primary . 20 election districts within the boundaries of these two county council districts are in one of these 3 state rep districts which have at least 4 EDs which are in the 19th State Senate District. The portions of these County Council Districts that were in these rep districts provided 976 in the 35th, 155 in the 36th 691 in the 37th in the 2nd County Council District and 58 in the 35th 1417 in the 36th and 1069 in the 37th in the 3rd County Council District . 4366 voters cast ballots in one of these three rep districts in one of these two county council races.
Since that is only 38 fewer voters than voted in the Governor’s race it is entirely possible that hundreds of voters may have been brought to the polls by their interest to vote in the local race and then voted in the statewide race. If this is not the case what could explain twice as many voters participating in 2008 than 2004, both presidential years involving the same opponents, Bill Lee & Mike Protack? While the statewide GOP votes cast went up only 33% from 21,670 to 28,972, the turnout numbers in these districts more than doubled from 2132 to 4404.
The fact is that of the 3 examples the only one in which the percent of statewide total exceeds 10% is the one where local primaries are involved.
I can not predict the amount of the impact,but I think the 19th State Senate primary will drive up the relative impact these three rep districts have on the statewide GOP primaries for US Senate and US Rep .
Numbers quoted are the from the Delaware State Election Commissioner's website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
In 2004’s 21,670 votes were cast statewide in the GOP primary for Governor with 590 cast in the 35th, 729 cast in the 36th and 813 cast in the 37 th . These districts accounted for 2132 votes cast or 9% of votes cast statewide.
In 2008 in the GOP primary for Governor the 35th accounted for 1094 votes, the 36th accounted for 1564 and the 37th accounted for 1746. 4404 votes were cast in these 3 rep districts or 15 % of the 28,972 total votes cast statewide in that race.
In 2004 and 2006 none of these districts had a local primary,but in 2010 there is hotly contested race for the 19th State Senate seat which has at least four election districts in each of these Rep Districts which comprise 14 of the 16 election districts in the 19th Senate District.
In 2008 when the relative impact statewide of these three districts was significantly higher, there were local primaries . Sussex County Council District 2 and 3 each had a GOP primary . 20 election districts within the boundaries of these two county council districts are in one of these 3 state rep districts which have at least 4 EDs which are in the 19th State Senate District. The portions of these County Council Districts that were in these rep districts provided 976 in the 35th, 155 in the 36th 691 in the 37th in the 2nd County Council District and 58 in the 35th 1417 in the 36th and 1069 in the 37th in the 3rd County Council District . 4366 voters cast ballots in one of these three rep districts in one of these two county council races.
Since that is only 38 fewer voters than voted in the Governor’s race it is entirely possible that hundreds of voters may have been brought to the polls by their interest to vote in the local race and then voted in the statewide race. If this is not the case what could explain twice as many voters participating in 2008 than 2004, both presidential years involving the same opponents, Bill Lee & Mike Protack? While the statewide GOP votes cast went up only 33% from 21,670 to 28,972, the turnout numbers in these districts more than doubled from 2132 to 4404.
The fact is that of the 3 examples the only one in which the percent of statewide total exceeds 10% is the one where local primaries are involved.
I can not predict the amount of the impact,but I think the 19th State Senate primary will drive up the relative impact these three rep districts have on the statewide GOP primaries for US Senate and US Rep .
Numbers quoted are the from the Delaware State Election Commissioner's website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Geography of recent registrants may help O'Donnell if primaries South of the C&D Canal increase turnout ,but I doubt it will be enough to beat Castle
Christine O'Donnell may have a few things in her favor.
Her support seems to be disproportionally stronger in downstate Delaware where she did well in several election districts in the 2008 general election despite losing 2-1 statewide.
Over the last ten years Sussex County & Kent County have incresed their share of the Republican electorate.
It also appears that Mike Castle has taken notice of a possible threat in lower Delaware.
From:
http://www.delawareliberal.net/2010/09/01/castle-is-scared-now/
It looks like Rep. Mike Castle isn’t taking his Tea Party Express-backed primary opponent lightly: The Republican has purchased $113K worth of airtime before the primary. [...] A Dem source that monitors media buys tells Hotline On Call that Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market. That market broadcasts into southern DE. Castle has also purchased $26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio.
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/castle_going_on.php
Over the past decade the number of registered Republicans statewide has increased from 171,446 in 2000 to 182,989 in 2010 for an increase of 11,543 or a 6% increase. Sussex County has increased from 38,059 to 48,755 for an increase of 10,696 or 28%. Kent County has increased from 26,056 to 32,852 for an increase of 6796 or 26%. The number of registered Republicans in New Castle County decreased from 107,331 to 101,382 for a loss of 5949 or 5%.
If the two Southern counties are most hospitable to O'Donnell's candidacy, this increase might benefit her. She also may benefit from the Sussex County primary in the 19th State senate and three State Rep primaries in Kent County in the 29th ,31st and 33rd districts which may drive up local turnout.
WDEL host John Flaherty has pointed out that the campaign of Glen Urquhart , conservative candidate for the U.S. Representative seat , may have helped O'Donnell by espousing a similar set of issue statements and appealing to the same base in a campaign with a larger media budget with more airtime. Urquhart had been running radio ads for several weeks before O'Donnell was able to do so and it is possible he could energize some conservative voters into making it to the polls with the result that they would also vote for O'Donnell while in the voting booth for him( an electoral version of collateral damage).
Unfortunately for O'Donnell,despite losing several thousand Republicans over the last ten years New Castle County still has 101,382 Republicans to 81,607 in Kent & Sussex. For O'Donnell to win, turnout would have to be skewed in a way that several percentage points higher turnout took place in Kent & Sussex County and O'Donnell beat Castle 2-1 throughout the bulk of the these districts because I feel Castle will come out of New Castle County considerably ahead.
I also think Castle is likely to beat her handily in the 14th Rep District in the beach area of Eastern Sussex and may do the same in the 37th. Of the 686 votes cast in the 14th in the 2006 GOP Senate primary Jan Ting got 381 to O'Donnell's 86 and Mike Protack's 219. In the 37th out of 469 votes cast Ting got 280 to O'Donnell's 39 and Protack's 150.
I am thinking anywhere Ting won that big Csatle won't lose.I doubt O'Donnell's socially conservative message will fly here as well as in Western Sussex.
The 14th & 37th districts may be perceived as a test to see if Castle's work on beach replenishment is seen as government intruding in people's lives or as a needed infrastructure help which will bring people and therefore profits for small businesses in the resort area. As recently as September 10, 2010 Castle was touting beach replenishment in Bethany Beach:
http://www.delmarvanow.com/article/20100910/NEWS01/9100308/1002/Federal-dollars-replenish-beaches
In districts like the 4th Rep district and 12 district where Ting got more votes than O'Donnell & Protack combined, I expect Castle to do as well. In the 7th,10th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred Ting did almost that well and I expect Castle to do better than Ting,since they both had the party endorsement and Castle has higher name recognition and a stronger campaign organization after decades in elected office.
The 14th & 37th in Eastern Sussex should somewhat offset the areas of Western Sussex where O'Donnell may make inroads and may win multiple election districts.
I think New Castle County more than offsets whatever victories O'Donnell has in Kent & Sussex.
I think Castle is likely to win by 10-15 % points.
8-1-2010
statewide-GOP 182,989
Sussex County-48,755
Kent Republicans 32,852
New Castle -101,382
2-1-2010
statewide- 180,620
Sussex 47,614
Kent 32,345
New Castle- 100,661
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
11-2008
Sussex County-46,302
Kent 32,354
New Castle-103,202
181,858 –statewide
11-2006
Sussex County-44,655
New Castle-103,465
178,655 Republicans Statewide
Kent Republicans 30,535
11-2004
Sussex County-42,487
Kent-28,864
New Castle-110,159
Statewide-181,510
11-2002
Sussex County-40,219
Kent-26,756
New Castle-108,351
Statewide-175,376
11-2000
Sussex County-38,059
Kent-26,056
New Castle-107,331
Statewide-171,446
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
Her support seems to be disproportionally stronger in downstate Delaware where she did well in several election districts in the 2008 general election despite losing 2-1 statewide.
Over the last ten years Sussex County & Kent County have incresed their share of the Republican electorate.
It also appears that Mike Castle has taken notice of a possible threat in lower Delaware.
From:
http://www.delawareliberal.net/2010/09/01/castle-is-scared-now/
It looks like Rep. Mike Castle isn’t taking his Tea Party Express-backed primary opponent lightly: The Republican has purchased $113K worth of airtime before the primary. [...] A Dem source that monitors media buys tells Hotline On Call that Castle has purchased $113K worth of airtime for Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 in the Salisbury, MD, media market. That market broadcasts into southern DE. Castle has also purchased $26K worth of time on cable in New Castle County and $42K on radio.
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/castle_going_on.php
Over the past decade the number of registered Republicans statewide has increased from 171,446 in 2000 to 182,989 in 2010 for an increase of 11,543 or a 6% increase. Sussex County has increased from 38,059 to 48,755 for an increase of 10,696 or 28%. Kent County has increased from 26,056 to 32,852 for an increase of 6796 or 26%. The number of registered Republicans in New Castle County decreased from 107,331 to 101,382 for a loss of 5949 or 5%.
If the two Southern counties are most hospitable to O'Donnell's candidacy, this increase might benefit her. She also may benefit from the Sussex County primary in the 19th State senate and three State Rep primaries in Kent County in the 29th ,31st and 33rd districts which may drive up local turnout.
WDEL host John Flaherty has pointed out that the campaign of Glen Urquhart , conservative candidate for the U.S. Representative seat , may have helped O'Donnell by espousing a similar set of issue statements and appealing to the same base in a campaign with a larger media budget with more airtime. Urquhart had been running radio ads for several weeks before O'Donnell was able to do so and it is possible he could energize some conservative voters into making it to the polls with the result that they would also vote for O'Donnell while in the voting booth for him( an electoral version of collateral damage).
Unfortunately for O'Donnell,despite losing several thousand Republicans over the last ten years New Castle County still has 101,382 Republicans to 81,607 in Kent & Sussex. For O'Donnell to win, turnout would have to be skewed in a way that several percentage points higher turnout took place in Kent & Sussex County and O'Donnell beat Castle 2-1 throughout the bulk of the these districts because I feel Castle will come out of New Castle County considerably ahead.
I also think Castle is likely to beat her handily in the 14th Rep District in the beach area of Eastern Sussex and may do the same in the 37th. Of the 686 votes cast in the 14th in the 2006 GOP Senate primary Jan Ting got 381 to O'Donnell's 86 and Mike Protack's 219. In the 37th out of 469 votes cast Ting got 280 to O'Donnell's 39 and Protack's 150.
I am thinking anywhere Ting won that big Csatle won't lose.I doubt O'Donnell's socially conservative message will fly here as well as in Western Sussex.
The 14th & 37th districts may be perceived as a test to see if Castle's work on beach replenishment is seen as government intruding in people's lives or as a needed infrastructure help which will bring people and therefore profits for small businesses in the resort area. As recently as September 10, 2010 Castle was touting beach replenishment in Bethany Beach:
http://www.delmarvanow.com/article/20100910/NEWS01/9100308/1002/Federal-dollars-replenish-beaches
In districts like the 4th Rep district and 12 district where Ting got more votes than O'Donnell & Protack combined, I expect Castle to do as well. In the 7th,10th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred Ting did almost that well and I expect Castle to do better than Ting,since they both had the party endorsement and Castle has higher name recognition and a stronger campaign organization after decades in elected office.
The 14th & 37th in Eastern Sussex should somewhat offset the areas of Western Sussex where O'Donnell may make inroads and may win multiple election districts.
I think New Castle County more than offsets whatever victories O'Donnell has in Kent & Sussex.
I think Castle is likely to win by 10-15 % points.
8-1-2010
statewide-GOP 182,989
Sussex County-48,755
Kent Republicans 32,852
New Castle -101,382
2-1-2010
statewide- 180,620
Sussex 47,614
Kent 32,345
New Castle- 100,661
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
11-2008
Sussex County-46,302
Kent 32,354
New Castle-103,202
181,858 –statewide
11-2006
Sussex County-44,655
New Castle-103,465
178,655 Republicans Statewide
Kent Republicans 30,535
11-2004
Sussex County-42,487
Kent-28,864
New Castle-110,159
Statewide-181,510
11-2002
Sussex County-40,219
Kent-26,756
New Castle-108,351
Statewide-175,376
11-2000
Sussex County-38,059
Kent-26,056
New Castle-107,331
Statewide-171,446
http://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/regtotals.shtml
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