In 2010 Will Democrats Have the Dollars to Compete with Mike Castle?

Money can not necessarily guarantee an election victory,but it can provide things like organization and name recognition. This is particularly true in a statewide race more than local races, since it would not be likely that a statewide candidate will be able to have as much extended person-to-person contact with individual voters as a local candidate because the voter base is so much larger .

The campaign finance numbers from the Open Secrets website which tracks campaign finance from the Federal Elections Commission and the election percent results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website indicate that Mike Castle’s ability to raise money may have had a big impact. Over the last five election cycles Castle has outraised his opponents in dramatic fashion with closest ratio being about 3-1 in the 2006 race with Dennis Spivack. In 2000 Castle outraised Mike Miller by a 14-1 margin. The other three races had Castle outraising Miller (2002), Paul Donnelly (2004) and Karen Hartley-Nagel (2008) by margins exceeding 50-1.

Several years of incumbency does not hurt Castle’s chances. However, for a challenger to seriously give him a run for his money, I am thinking they may need to raise an amount closer to what Castle is used to raising.

It is notable that none of the Democratic candidates he faced between 2000 and 2008 has ever held public office. This might have impacted their ability to raise money. It might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If potential donors believe a candidate can’t win because he/she has never held office, that belief limits donations and may go a long way towards f preventing that candidate from winning elective office. This may be an issue if the Democratic nominee is one of the recent nominees or if it is soon-to-announce candidate Scott Spencer, a long-time community activist on transportation and energy issues who has not previously held elective office. It is not impossible to win without holding prior elective office, but that does mean the candidate has to start from scratch in the fund-raising and name recognition areas.

Two of the possible candidates rumored to be considering an election contest against Castle, Attorney General Beau Biden and former Lt Governor John Carney, have both had past statewide election victories and have experience raising money for statewide races. I plan to research their fund-raising history in upcoming weeks.



http://www.opensecrets.org/races/results.php?qname=castle


2008
Mike Castle
61 . 1 % of the vote

Raised:
$1,480,591
Spent:
$1,808,076
Cash on Hand:
$862,744
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

Karen Hartley-Nagle
Karen Hartley-Nagle (D)
38 . 0 % of the vote
Raised:
$27,845
Spent:
$27,785
Cash on Hand:
$58
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

2006
Mike Castle
57 . 2 % of the vote
Raised:
$1,267,040
Spent:
$1,112,716
Cash on Hand:
$1,190,228
Last Report:
December 31, 2006
Dennis Spivack (D)
38 . 8 %of vote
Raised:
$382,417
Spent:
$380,390
Cash on Hand:
$2,026
Last Report:
December 31, 2006


2004
Mike Castle
69 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$992,240
Spent:
$902,706
Cash on Hand:
$1,035,902
Last Report:
December 31, 2004
Paul Donnelly
Paul Donnelly (D)(30% of vote)
Raised:
$4,429
Spent:
$4,429
Cash on Hand:
$0
Last Report:
October 20, 2004

2002
Mike Castle
72 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$796,752
Spent:
$760,161
Cash on Hand:
$946,368
Last Report:
December 31, 2002
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(27% of vote)
Raised:
$15,373
Spent:
$13,202
Cash on Hand:
$4,269
Last Report:
September 30, 2002

2000
Mike Castle

67 . 6 % of vote
Raised:
$675,048
Spent:
$588,911
Cash on Hand:
$909,781
Last Report:
December 31, 2000
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(30 . 8 % of vote)
Raised:
$47,650
Spent:
$48,986
Cash on Hand:
$2,099
Last Report:
December 31, 2000




Election results from the Delaware Commissioner of Elections:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Here is a link to Scott Spencer’s campaign website:

http://www.spencerforthepeople.com/