Working Families Party Impact
“Based on past voting history I would say (Bill)Oberle is a safe bet to win in the 24th and (Jerry)Semper (39th) & (Dennis)Williams (10th) are likely to lose.”
“ There may be enough people who will vote for a candidate and not want to vote for the major party line, that (Karen) Stewart, (Terry)Spence and(Vince) Lofink could possibly win and have their share of Working Families votes be more than their margin of victory which would be a big coup for a relatively new party. It is distinctly possible a few hundred Democrats may feel more comfortable voting for Spence or Lofink on the Working Families line on the ballot without giving them Republican votes.”
Posted 11-4-2008
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Well I was certainly wrong on Dennis Williams losing in the 10th district where he upset Bob Valihura and won by 192 votes. Bill Oberle’s race was closer than I had expected with his victory margin of only 602 votes. While the Working Families Party did not provide the margin of victory for any of its candidates it did make the losing margin significantly closer for some losers and boosted the victory margin for some winners.
Oberle won by 602, but without his 116 Working Family votes his winning margin would have been 486. Without his Working Family votes, Williams would have won by 142 votes.
Lofink lost by 48 votes, but came 117 votes closer to victory with his Working Family votes.While Terry Spence also lost , his 85 Working Family votes kept him within 319 votes of winner, Mike Barbieri. There is no proof that these votes would not have been cast for the same candidates no matter what their party banner, but we know that these votes were cast on that day on the Working Parties ballot line. My feeling is this party had an impact even though it did not provide the margin of victory in any races in Nov 2008.
The 16% winning margin for Karen Stewart and the over 35% losing margin for Jerry Semper made the Working Families votes have no impact in either of those races, but I observed an interesting voting pattern in what could be the equivalent of Working Families Party straight ticket voting. In each of the five rep districts where local candidates were fielded by the Working Families Party, Karen Stewart,the Democrat who won the Insurance Commissioner’s race and was the only statewide candidate endorsed by the Working Families Party, received 51.3%-61.7% of the number of votes the state rep candidate received. Her appeal relative to the endorsed state rep candidate remained constant within tha 10.4% range across these five districts despite the facts that :
(1) 2 were won by Republicans and 3 were won by Democrats ,
(2) 2 were won by endorsed candidates and in 3 the endorsed candidate lost and
(3) that the five districts had some geographic diversity with the 10th in Brandywine Hundred, the 18th,24th & 27th in New Castle County between Stanton and Glasgow and the 39th in Sussex County.
No exit polls were done on this type of question and the behavior of a few hundred voters in five of forty-one representative districts is a small sample, but it seemed to be an interesting pattern I have not yet found an explanation for. This will be interesting to watch in future elections if the Working Families Party continues to endorse major party candidates.
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER
435 of 435 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/ KAREN WELDIN STEWART/217,070/56 . 9 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/JOHN F. BRADY/156,438/41 . 0 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL/TOM SAVAGE/5632/1 . 5 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/ KAREN WELDIN STEWART/2025/0 . 6 %
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STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 10
12 of 12 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/DENNIS E. WILLIAMS/5038/50 . 4 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/ROBERT J. VALIHURA JR./4898/49 . 0 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/DENNIS E. WILLIAMS/52/0 . 6 %
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STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 18
11 of 11 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/ MICHAEL A. BARBIERI/4164/52 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/TERRY R. SPENCE/3760/46 . 9 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/TERRY R. SPENCE/85/1 . 1 %
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STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 24
9 of 9 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/DANIEL BASARA/3455/46 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/WILLIAM A. OBERLE JR./3941/52 . 5 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/WILLIAM A. OBERLE JR./116/1 . 5 %
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STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 27
10 of 10 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/EARL JAQUES/4708/48 . 7 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/ VINCENT A. LOFINK/4543/47 . 0 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL/JAMES L. SPENCER/293/3 . 0 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/ VINCENT A. LOFINK/117/1 . 3 %
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STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 39
7 of 7 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY/JERRY L. SEMPER/2292/30 . 4 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY/DANIEL B. SHORT/5185/68 . 8 %
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY/JERRY L. SEMPER/60/0 . 8 %
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STRAIGHT TICKET VOTING REVIEWED:
District 10
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER STEWART K WFP 28
State Representative Dennis Williams WFP 52
53.8% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%
District 18
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER STEWART K WFP 45
State Representative Spence WFP 85
52.9% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%
District 24
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER STEWART K WFP 64
State Representative Oberle WFP 116
55.2% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
6 votes over 50%
District 27
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER STEWART K WFP 60
State Representative Lofink WFP 117
51.3% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%
District 39
INSURANCE COMMISSIONER STEWART K WFP 37
State Representative Semper WFP 60
61.7% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
7 votes over 50%
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