In his two most competitive statewide races, it can not be proven Mike Castle got Democratic votes.It can be proven his opponents lost Democratic votes. William Quillen in 1984 and S B Woo in 1992 each had votes total below the number of Democrats who voted. Castle exceeded the number of Republicans who voted,but it can not be proven he received any Democratic votes. Castle beat Quillen 56% to 44% for Governor. Castle beat Woo 55% to 43% for US Representative .The remaining 2% went to a Libertarian candidate in 1992.
1984
Castle received 135,250 votes when elected Governor
If he received all GOP votes cast 88,888
And all Others cast 54,579
Which equals 143,467
Meaning he would need to get zero Democrats,since
143,467 is greater than 135,250
This does not prove Castle did not get any Democratic votes, but it proves that you can not mathematically prove he got any Democratic votes which might mean he got a smaller percentage of Democratic votes in 1984 than in 2004, 2006 & 2008 when it can be proven he received thousands of votes from Democrats.
Castle got 8,000 fewer votes than the combination of Republicans and Others. For him to have gotten a substantial number of Democratic votes would mean he received a diminished number of votes cast for him by Republicans and Others. Since Castle got 15,000 more votes than any other Republican statewide except Ronald Reagan (who received 152,190), this seems unlikely.
The Republican US Senate candidate, John Burris, received the fewest statewide votes for a GOP candidate in 1984. Burris received 98,101 votes in his unsuccessful campaign against Joe Biden.It appears that 98,101 of the 143,467 Republicans & Others constitute the mathematical equivalent of Republican straight ticket voting since all Republincan candidates got at least this amount of votes. This means that mathematically only 45,366 voters from this group were in play. Since Castle received 37,149 votes over 98,101, it can be assumed he received a fair portion of this group of 45,366 along with a smattering of Democrats.
The Democratic candidate who received the fewest votes in 1984 was Walter Mondale, the candidate who ran for President against Ronald Reagan. Mondale received 101,656. This is the mathematical equivalence of the Democratic straight ticket vote since all Democratic candidates got at least this amount of votes. Judge Bill Quillen, the Democratic candidate for Governor against Mike Castle, received 108,315,so he exceeded the mathematical equivalent of the straight ticket vote. This number ,however, includes some votes cast by people who are not registered Democrats. 114,610 Democrats voted and Quillen received 108,315, meaning at least 6000 Democrats either voted for someone else or decided not to vote in the Governor’s race. 12,000 voters who voted in the presidential race did not vote in the governor’s race,although this may have been to Quillen’s advantage as he lost by 26,935 votes and Mondale lost by 50,334.
Since 114,610 Democrats voted in 1992, we know that at least 6,000 did not vote for Quillen. This can be due to voting for Castle or they may have stopped voting without voting in this race.
While we can not prove mathematically that Castle received any votes from Democrats, we know Quillen got fewer than 100% of all Democratic votes. In a race with a 26,935 victory margin for Castle those 6,000 would not have changed the outcome,but they would have narrowed the margin.
For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website
1992
Castle received 153,037 votes
If he received all GOP votes cast 106,372
And all Others cast 57,405
Which equals 163,777
Meaning he would need to get zero Democrats,since
163,777 is greater than 153,037
This does not prove Castle did not get any Democratic votes, but it proves that you can not mathematically prove he got any Democratic votes which might mean he got a smaller percentage of Democratic votes in 1992 than in 2004, 2006 & 2008 when it can be proven he received thousands of votes from Democrats.
Castle got 10,000 fewer votes than the combination of Republicans and Others. For him to have gotten a substantial number of Democratic votes would mean he received a diminished number of votes cast for him by Republicans and Others. Since Castle got more votes than any other Republican statewide, this seems unlikely.
The Republican Gubernatorial candidate, B Gary Scott, received the fewest statewide votes for a GOP candidate in 1992. Scott, received 90,725 votes in his unsuccessful campaign against Tom Carper.It appears that 90,725 of the 163,777 votes cast by Republicans & Others constitutes the mathematical equivalent of Republican straight ticket voting since all Republican candidates got at least this amount of votes. This means that mathematically only 73,002 voters from this group were in play. Since Castle received 62,312 votes over 90,725, it can be assumed he received a fair portion of this group of 73,002 along with a smattering of Democrats
The Democratic candidate who received the fewest votes in 1992 was SB Woo, the candidate who ran for US Representative against Castle. Woo received 117,426. This is the mathematical equivalence of the Democratic straight ticket vote, since all Democratic candidates got at least this amount of votes. Since 127,059 Democrats voted in 1992, we know that at least 10,000 did not vote for Woo. This can be due to voting for another candidate (though not necessarily Castle, since Libertarian Peggy Schmitt recieved 5,661 votes) or they may have stopped voting without voting in this race. 13,496 people voted in the presidential election, but did not vote in the US Representative race. Due to the secret ballot, it is not possible to quantify this voter dropoff by party affiliation.
While we can not prove mathematically that Castle received any votes from Democrats, we can verify that Woo got fewer than 100% of all Democratic votes. In a race with a 35,611 victory margin for Castle those 10,000 would not have changed the outcome,but they would have narrowed the margin.
For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment