You may think Mike Castle has crossover appeal, but it can be mathematically proven that he has drawn significant numbers of votes from Democratic voters in recent years because he could not get the vote totals he has gotten without getting a mathematically verifiable amount of votes from Democratic voters and a potentially higher number from Democrat voters that can be conjectured if we assume that not all Republicans and Others voted for him AND we assume that at least some of the voter dropoff occurs among Republicans and Others.
2008
Castle received 235,437 votes
If he received all GOP votes cast 127,346
And all Others cast 87,121
Which equals 214,467
He would need to get at least 20,970 Democrats,since
20,970
+214,467
235,437
Since 199,095 Democrats voted in 2008, Castle had to have gotten at least 10.5% (20,970) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.
413,562 voters cast ballots in 2008 statewide in Delaware, but only 385,457 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 28, 105 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 28,105 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 214,467 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have voted for Castle to make up his total vote count.
So at least 10.5% (20,970) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle.
If you don’t think this is significant, it might be worth noting that although several Democrats statewide won decisive victories by margins of over 100,000 votes none had a vote total that was more than the combined turnout of Democrats and Others (286,216). Jack Markell won the Governor’s race by over 140,000, but still received 266,861 or about 20,000 below 286,216. While I don’t doubt that some of them got Republican votes, it can’t be proven from the numbers the way Castle’s ability to get Democratic votes can be proven. Since Democrats outvoted Republicans 181,858 to 140,543, Democrats can win by holding their base and getting enough Others. A Republican would need more Democratic defections.
________________________________________________________________
2006
Castle received 143,897 votes
If he received all GOP votes cast 90,176
And all Others cast 50,922
Which equals 141,098
He would need to get at least 2,799 Democrats,since
2,799
+141,098
143,897
Since 116,955 Democrats voted in 2006, Castle had to have gotten at least 2.4% (2,799) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.
258,053 voters cast ballots in 2006 statewide in Delaware, but only 251,694 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 6,359 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 6,359 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 141,098 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have had to vote for Castle to make up his total vote count.
So at least 2.4% (2,799) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle
It is mathematically impossible that his Democratic opponent, Dennis Spivack received all Democratic votes cast since 116,955 Democrats voted and his combined vote total of 97,565 & the dropoff of 6,359 equals 103,924 which is less than the number of Democratic voters who came to the polls. On the other hand, Democrat Jack Markell in the treasurer’s race with 174,388 had a vote total that exceeded the combined turnout of Democrats and Others (116,955 plus 50,922 which equals 167,877) ,meaning Markell mathematically had to get several thousand Republican voters to vote for him.
________________________________________________________________
2004
Castle received 245,978 votes
If he received all GOP votes cast 127,056
And all Others cast 79,008
Which equals 206,064
Meaning he would need to get at least 39,914 Democrats,since
39,914
+206,064
245,978
Since 165,185 Democrats voted in 2004, Castle had to have gotten at least 24.2% (39,914) of all Democrat votes, even if he received all the votes cast by Republicans and Others. If we assume he got fewer than 100% of all Republican and Other votes cast, whatever amount that might be pushes up the number of Democrats who voted for Castle.
371,249 voters cast ballots in 2004 statewide in Delaware, but only 356,045 cast votes in the U.S. Representative race. 15,204 voters entered the voting booth and left without voting for any candidate in the Congressional race. If we can assume that at least several thousand of that 15,204 voters who dropped off the ballot without voting for Congress were Republicans or Others (since the 206,064 is all Republican & Other ballots cast,not necessarily in the US Rep race), that is an additional quantity of Democrats who would have had to vote for Castle to make up his total vote count.
So at least 24.2% (39,914) and possibly several thousand (representing several percentage points) more Democrats voted for Mike Castle in 2004.
For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml
For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website
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