State Rep Race in the 24th Could be Exciting in 2010?…or 2012? Or Not?

Republican Bill Oberle has represented the area outside Newark since 1976. Currently the district includes parts of Old Baltimore Pike , Kirkwood Highway and East Chestnut Hill. He represents Scottfield and shares representation of Brookside with Democrat John Kowalko of the adjacent 25th Representative District. There are other neighborhoods as well, but this gives you an idea of the area involved. As of 1-1-2009 the district registration tilts heavily Democratic with 6, 444 Democrats , 3, 057 Republicans and 3,132 Others among the 12, 633 registered voters.

Oberle has lasted for 32 years as a Republican in a heavily Democratic district in part by maintaining strong ties with labor unions and 2008 was no different. He was one of just three Republican candidates who received the nomination of the Working Families Party, which describes itself as “a grassroots, community and labor based political party”, in addition to the nomination of the Republican Party. Oberle also received contributions above the $100 amount which triggers mandatory reporting from several unions including the Carpenters, the United Auto Workers, the Teamsters and the Plumbers & Pipefitters.

2008 showed him his toughest election contest to date. It was also his first contested election in 20 years. His Democratic opponent Daniel Basara did not file prior to the July 25, 2008 deadline ,but was later appointed by the party. Since no other Democrat filed , Basara was appointed by the Democratic Party prior to the September 2, 2008 deadline. Oberle would have gone unopposed without the appointment.Oberle had paid his filing fee July 10, 2008,so had a 32 year incumbency advantage and a 2 month formal campaign headstart.

Oberle also got a headstart on fund-raising. Oberle started 2008 with $12,115.25 on hand according to his mandatory finance report filed 30 days prior to the Nov 2008 general election.. Between Jan 1st and Oct 1st Oberle raised $13,950.00 & spent $6,101. Between Oct 1st and Oct 27, 2008, the mandatory filing period ending 8 days before the general election, Oberle raised an additional $10,250.00 and spent $9, 720.70. Basara reports raising no money until Oct 1, 2008 . He raised only $2700 between Oct 1, 2008 and Oct 27, 2008 and spent $2,572.58 of that prior to end of the 8 day reporting period.

Since the reports are not yet available, we can not take into account money raised and spent in the days immediately before and after the general election. We can see that in the months leading up to the election Oberle outraised Basara $26,065 to $2700 or better than 9-1 and outspent him $15821.70 to $2,572.58 or better than 6-1.

The result was Oberle won by 602 votes (54% to 46%) and won 6 of 9 election districts. Basara won only 3 election districts, but in two losing districts he came close. In the 2nd of the 24th Oberle won 582 to 543 and in the 8th of the 24th Oberle won 695 to 683. This means that Basara won or seriously contested 5 of 9 districts. This may bode well for the Democrats in the next two to four years.

It is possible Basara or another viable Democratic may run in 2010 and start much earlier. With increased time to build an organization and raise money it is possible they may seriously challenge Oberle in 2010. I would say this is not overly likely without a lot of organization and 2009 preparation. 2010 will be an off year election ,so many of the more casual voters will not turnout.

Off year turnout could be more than 25 % less than 2008
Here are the turnout numbers for the 24th which has had the current boundaries since 2002:
2002 --35.3%
2004 --63.7%
2006 --37.7%
2008 –64.8%


http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/results.shtml

The 25% that comes out during a presidential year may have been the voters that brought Basara this close in 2008 and are less likely to vote in 2010. If he is serious about serving he should run again to maybe win, but also (in case of a 2010 loss) to increase his name recognition for a run in 2012 after reapportionment. If Basara does not run or they find a more viable candidate, the Democrats in the 24th might consider another 2010 candidate who is willing run with the realization it might be a trial run.

My guess is the most likely chance the Democrats have, unless they very early develop a strong organization behind their 2010 candidate, is in 2012 after reapportionment. Considering they have a 6,444 to 3,057 registration advantage, the Democrats can not create a district that is more heavily weighted in their favor as far as registration. They can change what Democrats will be voting in what districts, so that Democrats used to voting for Oberle have a different set of choices in 2012.

If they maintain control of the House of Representatives and the reapportionment process does not change , the House Democratic caucus will draw the 2012 district lines. As best I could tell from looking at the maps on the County Board of Elections website, the 24th is adjacent to the 18th, the 25th and the 26th Districts. Each of these is now represented by a Democrat.The lines could be drawn to place parts of areas where Oberle is popular in 3-4 different districts, splitting them between the current 24th and the other three Democratically held seats. Because each of them would have only a portion of where he is popular, the impact would be somewhat neutralized to each of the Democrats while Oberle’s base of supporters would be dispersed across multiple district lines. I am neither supporting nor opposing such a plan, but pointing what might be possible during reapportionment.

If Basara does not run and the Democrats don’t find a viable candidate in 2010 or 2012, Oberle may be in Dover for quite awhile longer. After serving more than 30 years Oberle may retire in upcoming years, if the Republicans do not regain the majority and he tires of minority party status. I have not spoken with either of these gentlemen, so have no idea of their plans.
The 24th might be a district to watch in 2010 or 2012 or not.




Finance reports available at the Delaware Elections Commissioner’s website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

24th Rep District Race by Election District in the 2008 Election

Official Election Results By Election District
11/04/08 General
BASARA D (DEMOCRATIC) OBERLE W (REPUBLICAN & WORKING FAMILY PARTY)

01-24 Total 414-- --Basara 167-- Oberle 247 (244 REP & 3 WFP)
Includes part of Scottfield.Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School

02-24 Total 1125---Basara 543-- Oberle 582 (564 REP & 18 WFP)
Includes Todd Estates. Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School

03-24 Total 605 ---Basara 379-- Oberle 226 (218 REP & 8 WFP)
Includes Breezewood. Votes at Medill School

04-24 Total 908--- Basara 297-- Oberle 611 (587 REP & 24 WFP)
Includes Chestnut Hill Estates.Votes at Kirk Middle School.

05-24 Total 820--- Basara 291-- Oberle 529 (518 REP & 11 WFP)
Includes part of Scottfield.Votes at Gauger-Cobbs School.

06-24 Total 863--- Basara 451-- Oberle 412 (396 REP & 16 WFP)
Includes Newark Oaks & Kimberton Apts.Votes at Jennie Smith School.

07-24 Total 522 ---Basara 328-- Oberle 194 (185 REP & 9 WFP)
Includes Iron Hill Apts & Woodland Run. Votes at Glasgow High School

08-24 Total 1378-- Basara 683 --Oberle 695 (683 REP & 12 WFP)
Includes Westover Woods. Votes at Thurgood Marshall School

09-24 Total 877--- Basara 316-- Oberle 561 (546 REP & 15 WFP)
Includes Cedar Farms & Gray Acres. Votes at Glasgow High School

RD Tot Total 7512- Basara 3455- Oberle 4057 (3941 REP & 116 WFP)

Neighborhoods and polling places are mentioned to give the reader a general idea of the area encompassed by each election district. For additional information about election district boundaries you can see the map at the web address below.




Election results:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml


District map at:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/house/hse24.pdf

24th Rep District May Be Competitive if Democrats Follow Up on 2008 Progress

I realize some of the margin of closeness in this race may have been the "Blue Tsunami" in 2008. However, if the Democrats let Republican Bill Oberle, who has served since 1976, go back to running unopposed he is young enough he could be in Dover another 20 years. While I am not commenting on which candidate would make a better legislator from the 2008 contest, I do question whether it is good for democracy (with a little "d") for anyone to run unopposed for ten consecutive election cycles.
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2008 Bill Oberle ( R) 3941 & (WFP) 116 for a total of 4057 (54%.0) to
Daniel Basara (D ) 3455 (46.0%)
Unopposed in:
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986 Bill Oberle (R) 2,681 to Stan Glowiak ( D) 846
1984 Bill Oberle (R ) 5,040 to Francis Millman ( D) 1,039
1982 Bill Oberle ( R) 3,277 to Florence Irwin (D ) 1,016
1980 Bill Oberle (R ) 5,223 Stowell Kessler (D ) 1,249
1978 Bill Oberle (R ) 3,285 Bernice Holm (D ) 871
1976 Bill Oberle (R ) 3,358 Richard Legates (D ) 3,334

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml