3 advantages State Rep Joe Booth has in the 8-3-09 special election in the 19th State Senate district. Advantages ,but not guarantees for success.

State Rep Joe Booth is the Republican candidate in the 19th State Senate District . The senate district has a Democratic voter registration, but all four state rep districts which overlap with the 19th Senate District are represented by Republicans. The previously nominated Democrat , Eddy Parker, has stepped down and a new candidate is likely within the days.
Whoever is nominated as Democratic candidate faces at least three hurdles in the race with Joe Booth. Each of these could be a double edged sword for Booth , so no one has a lock on this contest.

(1) Joe Booth has a record to run on. As mayor of Georgetown and later as State Representative, he can point to decisions he has made or been part of which have impacted the lives of voters. Of course, if his opponent can point to circumstances where he can be portrayed as out of touch with the constituents of the 19th State Senate District, this may not be as much of an advantage for Booth.
Depending on the Democratic candidate they may have their own record to run on or , if they have not had previous public service, may be able to present themselves as a fresh approach compared to Booth ,who has been in public service for several years.

(2) Booth has a proven ability to raise money which will be needed to get a campaign message out in a matter of weeks . He also may have already had a fair amount on hand prior to his senate candidacy nomination.

State Rep Joe Booth’s 12-31-2008 end of year balance was $35,541.47. Between 10-28-2008 and 12-31-2008 he raised $4,800.00. His 8 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $1,775.00 between 10/08/2008 and 10/27/2008. His 30 day report prior to the Nov 2008 general election indicates he raised $20,950.00 between 01/01/2008 and 10/05/2008.

His 2007 end of year report indicates Booth’s committee raised $5,100.00 between 01/01/2007 and 12/31/2007.

http://denver.state.de.us/COE/cfishome.nsf/ByCandidate?OpenView&Start=2.28&Count=30&Expand=2#2

If you have difficulty accessing campaign finance from the link above , try this one and click on “view Reports Online”:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

It doesn’t mean the Democratic candidate can not raise a large amount of money in a short period of time, but it seems to mean that some time that might be used for voter contact will be used on donor contact by both the candidate and her/ his supporters.

(3) As a state representative in the middle of a term, Booth represents a win-win for campaign donors. If they donate and he wins, they supported a victorious state senator. If they support him and he loses , they supported someone who continues to have a vote in Legislative Hall as a state representative.

A 2007 Special Election demonstrates my point.
In the 14th State Senate special election held on November 3, 2007
Republican Joanne Christian’s 8 day filing from 9-30-2007 to 10-26-2007
reported Total Receipts of $22,350

*********************************************************************
Then Democratic State Rep. Bruce Ennis , who won the seat vacated by the death of State Sen Jim Vaughn, also submitted an 8 day filing from 9-27-2007 to 10-26-2007
He reported Total receipts of $42,915.00.
I can not be sure of the motives of anyone’s contributions ,but I can see that the outcome of supporting Ennis, who raised almost twice as much money as his opponent , was another inherent win-win for contributors. If he had lost, he would still have been a sitting legislator. By winning he moved to the State Senate where he became one of 21 , rather than one of 41 votes.



One option his opponent could try if that person is outspent by a large margin is to portray Booth as an insider , take advantage of as much free media as possible and hope enough voters to make a difference in the election outcome don't want an insider. The danger here is that some voters want an insider and I am guessing a significant number of voters in a district that has sent a decades long power player like Thurman Adams ( and I am not judging him positively or negatively by using this term as much as describing his role as executive Committee chair and later President Pro Tempore , he WAS a power player) back to Dover over the course of 36 years kind of like having an insider.
It's over three weeks away, so I plan to continue to follow this race and update when I find items of possible interest.

Some Thoughts about likely turnout in the 19th Senate Special Election.For now I am saying 15+% to low 20's% turnout,but it's still early to predict

The last post noted that the range for turnout in recent special elections has been from 5% in the 5th New Castle County Council District race in Feb 2009 to 29.1 % in the 7th State Rep seat race in April 2007.

The only two contests that received less than a 18% turnout were the 5th County Council race in New Castle County and the 1-20-2007 5th District Levy Court contest in Kent County.This would make me wonder if there is just less interest in county races than State legislative races.

This is likely due to the Delaware Code mandated limits on the issues county government addresses ( primarily public safety, land use, libraries) as opposed to the wider variety of issues the State government is able to address ( including health care, infrastructure, the court system, the correctional system and enough other items to make this year's State budget bill- HB 290- 242 pages).

The other reality of county government is that some of it's functions only take place in unincorporated areas.If you live in the City of Wilmington or Newark, municipal government may address some of these issues and you might be less motivated to vote in the county council race.
Some of the functions are continuous functions that become part of everyday community life and people may forget about them until they are directly impacted (for example, library or park hours are reduced). Otherwise, they may well be below the average voter's radar.

For these reasons I think it is possible the 19th State Senate race will have turnout closer to the other state legislative special elections than to either of these county government special elections.
It is still early, but as of now I would assume high teens to low 20s is the likely percentage turnout.
The State Fair will take some folks away from the district as has been pointed out in local media. I think another factor that I have not seen mentioned is that the election will be during a summer period when many people who can travel do travel, so some voters may be away.The vacationers, the infirmed and frail elderly would be ideal candidates for absentee voting, but it is questionable whether the condensed time frame of a special election will allow for the needed outreach for locating and contacting likely potential absentee voters.

Prior Special Election Turnout Doesn't Tell Us what the turnout will be in the 19th,but may hint at the parameters for turnout

12/20/08
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6
MIGLIORE MICHAEL P. DEMOCRATIC 1,467
KOVACH THOMAS H. REPUBLICAN 1,540
Total voter turnout 3,007
18.13% turnout



28th Rep District
12-8-2007
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout

14th Senate
11-3-2007
Bruce Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309
18% turnout

41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007
BULLOCK LYNN R. (D)—1576
HASTINGS GREGORY A. (R)--1770
BURTON JR. JOHN M. (I)--225
JOHN ATKINS (WRITE-IN)—584
28% turnout

STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7
Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %
JAMES BOWERS-REPUBLICAN—2048--47 . 4 %

29.1% turnout

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml


New Castle County -5th County Council Feb 19th, 2009

DILLER ELISA C. DEMOCRATIC 808 60%
MOULTHROP JAMES REPUBLICAN 545 40%
Total votes cast 1,353

Turnout was 5.53%
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special/2009_5th_ncc/5th_ncc.shtml



Election Date: 01/20/07
Voter Turnout = 8%
Kent County 5TH LEVY COURT DISTRICT


DEMOCRATIC PARTY

GEORGE SWEENEY--------477----39 . 0 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
W. G. EDMANSON II-------539---44 . 1 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
KEVIN MCCARTHY--------207---16 . 9 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect07/elect07_special_levy_5/html/election.shtml

Relative Vote Numbers Weight Between the 4 Rep Districts whose portions create the 19th State Senate District remained constant since 2002

While past performance is no guarantee of future performance the relative weights of each of the four representative district which have portions that comprise the 19th State Sen District supplied roughly the same percentage of the district total each of the four elections held since the 2002 reapportionment created the current 19th State Senate District.

Relative turnout is less predictable in a special election,but if this trend remains constant it could impact the outcome of the upcoming special election.Who controls what geography is always important,but when it looks lopsided enough to favor a specific area contestants must either get their fair share from that area or significantly drive up their numbers elsewhere.

2008
Total votes cast--------------18,656
35th Rep District--- Votes cast 8350-- percentage of Sen Dist.total--44.8%
36th Rep District--- Votes cast 4988-- percentage of Sen Dist.total--26.7%
37th Rep District--- Votes cast 3604---percentage of Sen Dist.total--19.3%
39th Rep District--- Votes cast 1714---percentage of Sen Dist.total--9.2%

2006
Total votes cast------------- 9294
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 4057--percentage of Sen Dist total--43.7%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 2305--percentage of Sen Dist total--24.8%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 2042-- percentage of Sen Dist total--22.0
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 890---percentage of Sen Dist total-- 9.5%

2004
Total votes cast ------------15,161
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 6656-- percentage of Sen Dist total--43.9%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 3712-- percentage of Sen Dist total-- 24.5%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 3212--percentage of Sen Dist total-- 21.2%
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 1576-- percentage of Sen Dist total --10.4%

2002
Total votes cast ----------10,052
35th Rep District-- Votes cast 4210--percentage of Sen Dist total--41.9%
36th Rep District-- Votes cast 2446--percentage of Sen Dist total--24.3%
37th Rep District-- Votes cast 2364--percentage of Sen Dist total--23.5%
39th Rep District-- Votes cast 1032--percentage of Sen Dist total--10.3%




In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.

2008

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html


2004

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF


The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive
2006

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml
2002

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

General Election 19th State Senate Polling Places. Likely to be combined into fewer locations for the special election

Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01

BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02

WOODBRIDGE HIGH SCHOOL ED: 03
Located in Bridgeville


DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.


REDDEN COMMUNITY HALL ED: 06 RD: 35.



ELLENDALE FIRE HALL ED: 07 RD: 35



36th RD

4. MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln
ED: 04 RD: 36

5. DEL TECH - JASON BLDG
Georgetown
ED: 05 RD: 36

6. MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36

Milton

8. ELLENDALE FIRE HALL
ED: 08 RD: 36


37th RD
4. HARBESON CHURCH HALL
ED: 04 RD: 37

5. GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ED: 05 RD: 37

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37



8. DOT TRANSPORTATION BLDG
ED: 08 RD: 37
Georgetown


39th RD

1. SEAFORD MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 01 RD: 39



3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39


From the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/pollingplaces/sussex.shtml

Rest In Peace Senator Adams

State Senator Thurman Adams passed away in the last 24 hours . While many may dispute his politics and legislative style, it is a mathematical fact that he has shown political staying power. He had been in the State Senate since 1972, meaning he had served through the Nixon, Ford ,Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush , Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama adminstrations. The only other current member to serve since 1972 is House Speaker Rep. Bob Gilligan.


My sympathy is extended to the Adams family at this time of sorrow.

A Special Election will take place within weeks.Registration totals show 19th Sen District to be a swing district

SUSSEX COUNTY
STATE SENATE DISTRICT #19

District ----Democrats Republicans Others Total

01 OF 35 ----1,058 ------1,193 ------562--- 2,813
02 OF 35---- 1,888------ 1,543------ 931--- 4,362
03 OF 35 -----238-------- 245 ------143---- 626
04 OF 35 ----1,174-------- 747------ 462---- 2,383
06 OF 35 -----464-------- 448------ 293---- 1,205
07 OF 35 -----300-------- 211------ 156----- 667
RD Total ----5,122------ 4,387 -----2,547-- 12,056

04 OF 36----- 966-------- 750------ 565---- 2,281
05 OF 36----- 249-------- 251------ 137------ 637
06 OF 36----1,022-------- 706------ 510---- 2,238
08 OF 36----- 625-------- 392------ 278----- 1,295
RD Total ----2,862------ 2,099---- 1,490----- 6,451

04 OF 37----- 175-------- 224------ 112-------- 511
05 OF 37----- 446-------- 637------ 264------ 1,347
06 OF 37----- 1,100------ 917------ 574------ 2,591
08 OF 37----- 233-------- 129------- 97-------- 459
RD Total ----1,954------- 1,907---- 1,047----- 4,908

01 OF 39----- 263-------- 395------ 155-------- 813
03 OF 39----- 557-------- 674------ 324------ 1,555
RD Total -----820------- 1,069----- 479------ 2,368

SD Total--- 10,758------ 9,462---- 5,563------ 25,783

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml