Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Parallel Campaign Outcomes In Northern New Castle County-The Last Posting on Special Elections---------- For 2008

The 6th Representative District and the 7th Representative District are adjacent districts in Brandywine Hundred . Recent political events have made the two seem like reverse mirrors, reflecting similar outcomes in opposite directions. In 2007 a Republican incumbent in the 7th district , Wayne Smith,resigned and a Democrat, Bryon Short, won the Special Election for the seat. In 2008 a Democrat incumbent ,State Representative Diana McWilliams, resigned in the 6th Representative District and a Republican , Tom Kovach, won the Special Election for that seat.

There are several similarities in these victories. Each winner had a registration disadvantage, although Short’s opponent’s 100 plus Republican edge seems more surmountable than the 2700plus registration deficit Kovach faced. Each victor won a majority of votes cast, but won less than a majority of the election districts (voting units which are not all the same size) involved. Kovach won in 5 of 12 election districts . Short won in 5 of 14 election districts. Kovach won with 51.2% of votes cast districtwide . Short won with 52.6% of votes cast districtwide. The five districts Kovach won represented 38.7% of total registered voters in the 6th. The five districts Short won represented 38.4 % of total registered voters in the 7th.

The 8 day campaign finance reports indicate that in the weeks leading up to the Special Election each winner was outdistanced by his opponent in campaign fund-raising. Republican Jim Bowers reported raising $68,159.85 in contributions and $10,000 in loans from the candidate for a total of $78, 159.85 received. Short reported $ 43,811.00 in cash contributions,$403.05 in loans from candidate and in $749.58 in-kind donations.

Democrat Mike Migliore’s finance report states between 11-20-2008 and 12-12-2008 he received $34,140.00 and lent his campaign $718.75. Tom Kovach got started a few days later and his report is from 12-1-2008 to 12-12-2008 ,a period during which he collected $10,375.00 .

Each won the five districts they won by enough to offset losses in a majority of the other election districts, but turnout was an important difference in the impact of these election districts towards overall victory . In the 6th District on Dec 20, 2008 Kovach won the 1st,2nd ,6th, 7th and 9th Election Districts of the 6th Representative District 893-654. He won this group of 1547 voters with a 57.8% victory margin . This 1547 represented 51.47% of the 3007 votes cast districtwide. In the 7th District race which was held on April 14, 2007 Short won his five winning Election Districts (the 1st, 4th,5th, 6th & 7th Election Districts of the 7th Representative District) with 67.3%, 1006 to 494, but the 1494 votes cast in his winning Election Districts only represented 34.6% of total turnout of 4323. Due to higher overall turnout Short, despite winning in his strong support districts by better than two to one, only won overall by 1.4% more than Kovach won in his lower turnout race. Basically, Short’s winning margin here was diluted by the higher overall turnout, including areas where he was not as strong.

Bryon Short won the 2007 Special Election by a 2275 to 2048 margin. Jim Bowers had a rematch in the 2008 general election and Short won more decisively, by 6281 to 4443.
Kovach won by only 73 votes, beating Mike Migliore by 1540 to 1467. It will be interesting in 2010 to see how heated the contest is for each of these seats.

All numbers quoted are from either the New Castle County Board of Elections website

or the State of Delaware Election Commissioner’s website

Monday, December 29, 2008

Predicting Outcomes in Special Elections is complicated by several factors.

Each Special Election is a stand alone, occasional event (not random, but not regularly scheduled) and is not part of a pattern of ongoing events like the primary and general elections held every two years.

(1)They happen so infrequently and irregularly that the sample size may be too small and unpredictable to make accurate predictions on a regular basis.

Every ten years following the census & reapportionment, the entire 21 member state senate is on the ballot. The other election cycles stagger state senate elections with 11 on the ballot in one cycle and 10 on the ballot the next cycle.

This means that from 1994 to 2008 there were potentially 94 Delaware state senate elections. Here is how it worked:
1994 & 1996 21 seats up
1998 & 2000 21 seats up
2002 21 seats up
2004& 2006 21 seats up
2008 10 seats up
Total 94 seats

All 42 state representative seats are up every 2 years which means between 1994 and 2008 there was the potential of having 336 contests, if none of these had been unopposed.

Over that same period there were 3 state senate Special Elections and 6 State Representative Special Elections. There have been four Special Elections since April 2007, but there were none between Jan 2001 and April 2007.
It’s a much smaller sample and scheduling (which is usually based on the death of a legislator or a change in a legislator’s ability to serve) is not regular.

(2)By definition they occur at a time other than when people are not used to voting. The recent 6th Representative District Special Election was held 6 weeks after the longest election cycle in recent history. Some voters may have tired of politics before Dec 20th. It was held
the last shopping day before Christmas, the day before Hannukah and the last Saturday before Kwanzaa. These combined to distract some percentage of voters away from the polls is my guess, although I don’t have polling data to support that assumption.

(3) It’s the only race on the ballot, so there are no coattails. In November 2008 voters had the marquee races for President, US Senator and Governor. In December there was only the 6th State Representative seat on the ballot.
One of the statistics I found interesting on the County Election Department website was voter drop-off which represents voters taking part in the voting process,but not voting in a specific race. In 2006 when the 6th State Representative District was contested in a three-way race, voter dropoff was 2.06% .152 voters entered the voting booth and did not cast a ballot in the 6th State Rep race.

I am betting these 152 voters did not come out on 12-20 which is possibly meaningful in a race decided by 73 votes. If 2% would not make it to the bottom of the ballot when they are already in the booth why would they come out for an election when one race at the bottom of the ballot is the only race on the ballot?

We don’t know the party affiliation of these dropoff voters,but in a district with 2700 more Democrats than Republicans where the Democratic ticket ran well in November there is a good chance a majority of these dropoff voters are Democrats.

On Nov 16th the Philadelphia Eagles played to a 13-13 tie with the Bengals,a team that ended the season 4-11-1 .Yesterday the Eagles beat the Cowboys 44-6 to clinch a NFL playoff berth. The Eagles are 9-6-1 and the Cowboys ended with 9-7 season. Earlier in the season the Cowboys beat the Eagles 41-37. The Eagles lost a close game against a good team, tied an awful team and then later routed the good team that had beaten them. It’s a “any given Sunday” situation.
I think that is what is at work in some of these Special Elections. The team that looks to have the advantage on paper wins more often, but every once in awhile the underdog wins (or ties in football). It’s all about who shows up on game day (election day).

Here is the link detailing voter dropoff in 2006

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Low Turnout in Democratic Strongholds& Higher Turnout in GOP Leaning Districts Gives 6th Rep Seat to Republican

I correctly predicted the total turnout would be about 18%, but I was dead wrong about the outcome in the 6th Representative District Special Election on Saturday , Dec 20th.Relative turnout appears to be the key to Republican Tom Kovach’s victory over Democrat, Mike Migliore. Turnout in districts where Kovach won was measurably higher than districts where Migliore won.

There are twelve election districts in the 6th Representative District. Migliore won in 7 of 12 election districts . Kovach won in 5 of 12 election districts. District wide turnout was 18.1%.Turnout in the districts won by Kovach was 25.5%. Turnout in the districts Migliore won was 13.5%.

The following districts underperformed on turnout significantly :
3rd of the 6th (Edgemoor)-Migliore won 91-56,but with only 147 of 1,532 voters casting ballots turnout was 9.6%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 873-315 in this district.

5th of the 6th (Gov. Printz Blvd North of Edgemoor)-Migliore won 84-38, but with only 122 of 1,547 voters casting ballots turnout was 7.9%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 805-372 in this district.

10th of the 6th-(Claymont area)-Migliore won 140-113, but with only 253 of 1,885 voters casting ballots turnout was 13.4%. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district 929-492.

11th of the 6th ( Claymont area)- Migliore won 50-39, but with only 89 of 1,319 voters casting ballots turnout was 6.7%. Democrats outnumber Republicans 731-302.

12th of the 6th- (Lea Blvd/N Market St)- Migliore won 34-14 ,but with only 48 of 452 voters casting ballots turnout was only 10.6%. Democrats outnumber Republicans in this election district 217-116.

Migliore won these five election districts 455-260 or 63.6%,but turnout was too low to offset Kovach’s numbers in the five districts he won because turnout in these five districts was 9.64% The Democratic registration edge in these five election districts is 3555 to1597, better than 2-1. A not much higher turnout here would have supplied the 74 additional votes Migliore would have needed to win.

Kovach’s winning districts had an average turnout of 25.5% with the lowest turnout among these five districts being 16.7% . In the only 2 election districts in the 6th Representative District where Republicans outnumber Democrats , the 6th ED (Lombardy Elementary School area) and the 9th ED (Mt Pleasant High School area), turnout was 20.5% and 34.7 %, respectively. Kovach won the 6th ED by 186-145 and won the 9th ED by 73-30. He won these two election districts by 84 votes, more than the 73 vote margin of victory. Republicans outnumber Democrats 639-612 in the 6th and 129-102 in the 9th .

The 2nd of the 6th (also voting at Mt Pleasant High School) and the 7th of the 6th (voting at the Mary Campbell Center) were also pivotal to Kovach’s victory since he won the 2nd 245-205 despite a 753-523 Democratic registration edge and won the 7th 270-184 despite a slight 600-578 Democratic registration edge. Turnout was 25.9 % in the 2nd and 29.7% in the 7th.

Data is not currently available of turnout by party on the election commissioner’s website,but it appears likely in these two districts Republicans had a higher percentage turnout than the Democrats. It is possible that as more information becomes available, we may also find that people registered something other than Democrat or Republican may have been the deciding factor since this group makes up 24.7 % of the registered voters in the 6th Representative District.
We don’t know right now exactly who voted by party, but we can tell that where Democrats should have been stronger turnout was light and where Republicans had to win, turnout was heavier.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Some clarification on the last post

In the math example, I stated what would happen if Kovach got all of the Republican votes and Migliore got all of the Democratic votes, Kovach would need to win 3-1 among Others.
I do not expect either candidate to win all of the votes of their own party and should have used the term numbers "equivalent to all" because after each of them get whatever numbers they get from their other party I think it will be the numerical equivalent of each getting roughly all of his own party vote and none of the other party vote which still leaves Kovach with a 200-300 vote deficit before Others are counted in with the turnout estimates I used.

If turnout is mugh higher or much lower, the number would require adjustment, but the principle would remain the same.

The numbers I used put estimated total turnout at 20%. I assume it will actually be closer to the 18% that voted in the Nov 2007 & Dec 2007 special elections for vacated legislative seats in late 2007.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

The Numbers Seem To Indicate Migliore will win in the 6th Rep District in 12-20-08 Special Election

The ten day campaign finance reports are now available on the Election Commissioner’s website and they indicate it pays to get an early start in amassing a campaign war chest.

Mike Migliore’s finance report states between 11-20-2008 and 12-12-2008 he received $34,140.00 (or an average of $1551.82 raised per day) and lent his campaign $718.75. Tom Kovach got started a few days later and his report is from 12-1-2008 to 12-12-2008 ,a period during which he collected $10,375.00 (or an average of $864.58 raised per day). As of 12-12-2008 Kovach had $2,608.70 on hand and Migliore had $25,257.75 on hand. In other words, Migliore spent $10,398.21, more than Kovach had raised , and still had over $22,000 more on hand than Kovach with only 8 days remaining.

This combined with the Democratic registration edge makes this pretty tough for Kovach. As of 11-1-2008 the Democrats held a 2672 voter registration lead over Republicans. As of 12-1-2008 here are the numbers for the 6th Rep District: 7,615 Democrats, 4,896 Republicans and 4,108 Others for a total of 16,619. To offset this disadvantage Kovach would either need to convince sizable numbers of Democrats and Others (in a Democratic leaning district) to vote Republican in the only race on the ballot or have a significantly higher Republican turnout than Democrats have.

Turnout by party is not yet available on the Election Commissioner’s website for 2008,but here is the breakdown by party for 2002, 2004 and 2008:
2006: Democrats 50%, Republicans 51% and Others 43% with total turnout at 48%
2004: Democrats 69%,Republicans 67% and Others 63% with total turnout at 67%
2002: Democrats 45% ,Republicans 50% and Others 39% with total turnout at 45 %

Past performance is no guarantee of voter behavior on a future specific date, but in the last three general elections where data is available the two major parties had turnout within 5 percentage points of each other with Others 4-7 % points below the party with lower turnout. If this holds true on 12-20-2008, Migliore should win as long as he holds the Democratic base.
If Republicans have 25% turnout that translates to 1224 votes, If the Democrats have a 20% turnout that translates to 1523 votes. If Others has a 15% turnout that translates to 616 votes. In this example, if Kovach gets all GOP votes and Migliore gets all Democrat votes, Kovach has to offset a 299 deficit among Other voters. To do so , he would need to beat Migliore about 3-1 among Others or 458-158. It seems unlikely that Others in a Democratic leaning district with two nonincumbents would vote 3-1 for the Republican unless there was a hot button local issue where the Republican was more line with local sentiment. This race has not generated any media around such an issue,so I assume a lot of voting will be done along party lines.

This is not a swing district. Obama beat McCain here 7538 to 3425 in 2008. Every member of Democratic statewide ticket except Congressional candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle carried the district by at least 2500 votes in 2008. In 2006 US Senate race incumbent Democrat Tom Carper won the district handily and Democrat Beau Biden beat Republican Ferris Wharton in the Attorney General’s race,but by only 262 votes.
In 2004 John Kerry beat George W Bush in the 6th 6403 to 4281. Incumbent Democrat Governor Ruth Ann Minner beat Bill Lee by 1140 votes here in 2004.
In US Senate contests Joe Biden won in 2002- 4245 to 2559 and in 2008 7501 to 3244 .
Mike Castle won this district each of the last four elections for Congress and Tom Wagner , Republican, won for Auditor in 2002, but these were the exception not the rule. Wagner lost the district by 3725 to 3514 in 2006.

Campaign finances, registration advantage, recent voter behavior and likely turnout breakdown combine to give Migliore the edge in this race.

For campaign finance reports:

Registration totals as of 12-1-2008:

Election results:

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Campaign Finance Reports for 2007 Special Elections May Give A Hint At The Money Involved in the 6th Rep District Special Election 12-20-2008

As we approach the deadline for filing the campaign finance report that is required 8days before the December 20, 2008 special election in the 6th Representative District, let’s look at the 8 day filings from the four special elections for legislative seats in Delaware in 2007. It does not tell what is raised and spent to actually win a campaign because a lot of financial activity happens within the last few days before & after election day, but it gives a hint of what the first 3 weeks of a 30 day campaign consume in money.

7th State Representative District-election held April 14, 2007
James Bowers (R)--8 day filing from 3-6-2007 to 4-6-2007
Beginning balance-zero
Total receipts-$68,159.85
Loans from candidate-$10,000
Bryon Short (D)-8 day filing from 3-12-2007 to 4-9-2007
Beginning balance -zero
Total receipts-$43,811.00
In-kind receipts $749.58, In-kind expenditure $749.58
Loans from candidate $400.98
41st State Representative District -election held May 5, 2007
Greg Hastings (R) 8 day filing report 4-2-2007 to 4-27-2007
beginning balance-zero
Total receipts-$33,401.00
Loans from the candidate-$7500
Total expenditures -$35,585.58
Lynn Bullock (D) 8 day filing report 4-4-2007 to 4-27-2007
beginning balance-zero
Total receipts $37,725.00
Total expenditures- $24,309.63
John Burton (I) 8 day report 4-3-2007 to 4-30-2007
beginning balance-zero
Expenditures $1131.73
John Atkins (write-in)
no finance report was on the election commissioner's website filed by a committee,but an independent expenditure filing was posted by a supporter who bought a campaign ad

14th State Senate-election held on November 3, 2007
Joanne Christian (R ) 8 day filing from 9-30-2007 to 10-26-2007
Beginning balance -zero
Total Receipts-$22,350
In-Kind Receipts $49.20 ,In -kind expenditure of $49.20
Loans from candidate $5000
Spent $21, 323.04
Bruce Ennis (D) 8 day filing from 9-27-2007 to 10-26-2007
Beginning balance -zero
Total receipts-$42,915.00
In-kind receipts $600, In-kind expenditure of $600
Loans from candidate -zero
Expenditures $22,876.35
Expense reimbursements $3,515.60

28th Representative District-election held December 8, 2007
Christine Malec (R) 8 day report from 11-1-2007 to 11-30-2007
Beginning balance-zero
Total receipts-$10,200.00
Loan from candidate- $1,927.60
William Carson (D) 8 day report from 10-23-2007 to 11-30-2007
Beginning balance-zero
Total receipts-$28,240.00
Loans from candidate $4,000

NOTE # 1-The beginning filing dates may be different for competing candidates because candidates can not begin raising or spending money until they have filed with the elections department and in a special election a major party election candidate is selected by his or her party. The difference in begin dates may reflect the varied amounts of time it takes for a party committee to organize a meeting and build consensus around a nominee.
Note # 2- In-kind contribution is some thing or service that has a dollar value that was donated. Where the in-kind donation is received and expended it may be a good received and it's value utilized by the campaign. An example is State Senator Bruce Ennis had a pig donated 10-25-2007 for a pig roast as an in-kind-donation, but when the pig was roasted it became an in-kind expenditure.

After clicking on the link above, click on "View Reports Online" to view any campaign finance reports available

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Weather Not A Likely Factor in the 6th District Special Election Unless Extreme for Area

When I looked at turnout for the four legislative special elections during 2007the first thing that struck me was that the two held in Nov and Dec each had 18% turnout and the two held in April and May each had 28% turnout. Could the weather have been a factor? Could the weather have convinced 10% of the electorate the trip to the polls was not worth the effort?

I reviewed what the weather was on each of these dates in the voting areas and it looks like the weather had minimal , if any, impact. The November election and the April election has similar temperatures, although mid-day was windy for the November election and the April election had some late afternoon light rain. The December 200 election had temperatures about 10 degrees less than the others and had light rain in the early voting hours, but winds were mild.

None of the 2007 weather conditions would have interfered with travel.

A review of the last ten years of weather on Dec 20, 2007 in zip code 19803 shows it to be chilly,but with minimal precipitation in recent years. It only snowed once in the last ten years on that date and then it stopped hours before the polls opened and left only 2/10ths of an inch of snow. It also rained three times out of ten which means there was no precipitation 6 of ten dates. Ten years is a small sample,but for at least the last ten years it looks like weather would not have impeded travel in the 6th Representative District and will not have much of an impact on turnout in the Dec 20,2008 Special Election unless that day has weather this year that is extreme compared to recent years.

Weather data is from:

Weather Underground is weather related website which was founded by Jeffrey Masters, a Ph.D. meteorologist from the University of Michigan. For some entries, there may be a minor discrepancy in local weather since the search device sometimes defaults to nearby zip codes with larger population centers. For example, when I typed in the zip code for Millsboro (19966)(the 41st Rep District) it defaults to Georgetown, the Sussex County seat.

Here are the election results,turnout & weather for legislative Special Elections held in 2007

28th Rep District
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
18% turnout

6:55 am 34.9 degrees,11:55 am 43.0 degrees, 7:55 pm 38.5 degrees

light rain 7:00am to 8:30 am, winds 3.0 to 6.9 mph from 10:30 am to 8:00 pm

14th Senate
Bruce Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309
18% turnout
6:55 am 47.5 degrees,11:55 am 48.9 degrees, 7:55 pm 50 degrees

no precipitation reported between 7 am and 8 pm, but there were winds of 28 plus mph between 9 am and noon and 23 plus mph between 3-5 pm

41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007
28% turnout

6:54 am 46.0 degrees, 11:54 am 69.1 degrees, 7:54 pm 53.1 degrees
light rain 4-5 pm and 6-7 pm, no precipitation reported remained of the hours of voting

Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %

29.1% turnout

6:51 am 36.0 degrees, 11:51 am 50.0 degrees, 7:51 pm 55.0 degrees
no precipitation reported between 7 am and 8 pm

Weather conditions for zip code 19803 (6th Representative District) on Dec 20th for each of the last ten years reported early am ,mid-day and evening

Dec 20,2007-6:51am-33 degrees F,11:51 am- 45 degrees F, 6:51 pm-37.9 degrees F
Dec.20,2006-6:51am- 27degreesF,11:51am-42.1degrees F, 6:51 pm –37.9degrees F
Precipitation-light rain 2-3 pm
Dec.20,2004-6:51am-10.0degreesF,11:51am-12.9degreesF,6:51 pm-16.0degreesF
Precipitation-rain 5-8 pm (heavy rain 6:45-7:15pm)
Precipitation-none,but windy throughout the day with winds at 32 plus mph from 9am-2pm
Precipitation-none from 7 am –8pm,but there was light snow from midnight-4 am leaving 2/10ths of an inch of snow

Precipitation- off and on light rain from 3am to 5 pm. Fog from 6pm to 8pm
Precipitation-none,but overcast and cloudy all day
Weather history data from:

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Special Delivery-Both Major Parties “Lawyer Up” for the 6th State Rep Special Election,Seems to Favor the Democrat

The 6th State Representative District faces a Special Election on Dec 20, 2008 due to the resignation of Democratic State Representative Diana McWilliams.
As of 11-1-2008 the Democrats held a 2672 voter registration lead over Republicans.

Locally the Republicans have not fared well since 2004 when Dave Ennis, who had held the seat for several years, stepped down to run for Insurance Commissioner. In the 2008 general election they did not even field a candidate against McWilliams. In 2006 McWilliams won 61.3% of the votes against Republican W. E. Smith (35.6%) and Independent Party candidate Michael Dore (3.1%). In 2004 McWilliams beat Republican Stacy Griggs 5,377 to 4,867.

The Democrats got a head start by selecting their nominee, Michael Migliore, a State House attorney and bankruptcy lawyer, on Nov 20, 2008. Migiliore is quoted in the News-Journal as saying the “door knocking starts today” on Nov 20, 2008. If he followed through with that on the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd , he gave himself an even greater headstart. Door to door campaigning is a staple of local races in Delaware and with weekday after-work sunlight nonexistent during this time of year in Delaware, door knocking must be done on weekends. There are only four weekends between Nov 20, 2008 and the Saturday December 20, 2008 special election, so Migliore got a head start on door knocking by being nominated before Saturday Nov 22nd.

On Nov 25,2008 the Republicans announced a candidate in this race, Tom Kovach, another local attorney. Kovach has to offset starting 5 days later in a 30 day campaign and he has to face the reality that Republicans have not won a majority of recent Special Elections.

Between April 2007 and December 2007 there were four Special Elections and the Democrats won three of four with Bruce Ennis wining the 14th Senate Seat vacated by the death of Jim Vaughn, William Carson winning Ennis’ former 28th Representative District seat, and Bryon Short taking the 7th Representative seat vacated by the retirement of Wayne Smith.

The only seat the Republicans won among 2007 Special Elections was the 41st which had been vacated by the resignation of then-Republican John Atkins. In the Special Election Republican Gregory Hastings won the seat,but his 1770 votes was less than the combination of votes for Lynn Bullock as a Democrat (1576) and John Atkins as a write-in (584). This is significant because in the 2008 general election John Atkins was the Democratic nominee and beat Republican Hastings 5665 to 5025, undoing the Repubican success in the Special Election. Out of 9 legislators elected by Special Election since 1994, Hastings is the only legislator to later be unseated in an election. The others still hold office.

Since Title 15, Chapter 34, Section 3402 of the Delaware State Code now mandates that for write-in votes to count, the write-in candidate must file with the Department of Elections as a write-in candidate this is unlikely to be a factor in the future which would makes it more likely a major party candidate would need a majority and not just a plurality. Since the only one of the nine Special Election winners to have won because a write-in candidate siphoned off more than the margin of victory was Hastings.

It is very early in this short campaign,but my initial impression is the race leans to the Democrat.

From the New Castle County Elections Dept website:

Registration figures as of 11/01/08

Correction to Yesterday's Post

An astute reader has pointed out (via e-mail) correctly that it was Bruce Ennis, who won the 14th State Senate race mentioned in yesterday's post.
I had incorrectly typed that it was David Ennis, but David Ennis is the former State Representative in the 6th Representative District who resigned to run for Insurance Commissioner in 2004 NOT the successful candidate in the 14th State Senate Special Election in 2007.
I think Ernest Hemingway said that any writer is only as good as his/her editor, so I am glad my readership is fact checking to keep me on track.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Here is how General Assembly Special Elections have panned out since 1994

Here are the results for Special Elections held since 1994
28th Rep District
William Carson ( D) 1446
Christine Malec ( R) 703
14th Senate
David Ennis ( D) --4272
Joanne Christian ( R) 1704
Joanne Christian (I ) 309

41st State Represeentative District
Special Election - 05/05/2007

Election Date: 04/14/07
BRYON SHORT-DEMOCRAT—----2275--52 . 6 %
Hazel Plant-Democrat—846—63.0%
Beatrice Carrol-Republican—453—33.7%
Robert Brown-Libertarian—44- 3.3%

9th Representative District
Nov 13, 1997
Chris Roberts (D) 1,758
Richard Cathcart ( R ) 1,966
12th Senate District
April 12, 1997
Dorinda Connor (R ) 2,554
Deborah Cuomo (D ) 485
Richark Trubey (L ) 64

August 12, 1995
Dennis Williams (D) 1,757
Karen J Miller (R ) 897
Lawrence L Sullivan (L) 122

April 16, 1994
Margaret Rose Henry (R) 1,487
Herman Hollway, Jr (D ) 1,036
Samuel L Guy ( K ) 225


Saturday, November 22, 2008

Is the Glass Half-Full or Half –Empty for the Democrats in the 9th State Rep District?

On Nov 4, 2008 the Democrats may have felt the glass was mostly empty after Rebecca Walker, Democratic challenger, lost to incumbent Republican Dick Cathcart 7436 – 6375. It was a repeat of their 2006 faceoff . In 2006 Catchcart won by 53.5%-46.5% and in 2008 Cathcart won 53.8% to 46.2%. There may be a feeling of not moving forward towards unseating Cathcart in the future,but it may be more complicated than that.

Walker won five of ten election districts as mentioned in the last post,but those election districts had a lower voter turnout than the election districts where Cathcart won.

Longterm prospects might not be so bad. The Democrat-Republican edge has increased from 5279-4922 in 2002 when the district was configured to 7819-6275 in 2008, from a 357 Democratic voter advantage to a 1544 Democratic voter advantage.

In 2004, the last Presidential election year before 2008, Vincent Ascione,the Democratic challenger, received 4,154 of 11,654 votes cast. In 2008 Walker received 6,375 of 13,811 votes cast. An additional 2157 votes were cast,but Walker got 2221 more votes. Despite 2157 more votes being cast in 2008, Dick Cathcart received fewer votes, 7436, down from the 7500 he received in 2004.All of the new voters (and then some) went to Walker, there were just not enough of them this election cycle to win.

Rebecca Walker has shown two elections in a row she can get 46+%. She or another Democrat needs to get the additional 4% to beat Cathcart, if he runs again in 2010 and has Democratic opposition. 2010 will have a lower turnout than 2008 since it is not a Presidential year,but higher numbers than 2006 (the last non-presidential year) because there are more registered voters now.

If 2010 registered climbs to 20,000 and there is a 50% turnout, 4% is 400 votes she needs to move. If registration increases to 19,000 and there is a 48% turnout, 4% is 365 votes she needs to move.

With the lowered turnout in 2006 she came within 573 votes which means if 287 voters had switched their vote she would have won.
I would say it would be tough to unseat someone who has been in nonstop since 1997,but it is not insurmountable.

Cathcart appears to be pretty resilient. He served two terms in the New Castle area from 1978-1982 before losing to Bill Houghton. In 1997 he won his current position in a special election following the death of the Democratic incumbent and has not lost since then. While several of his Republican allies went down in what turned out to be a Democratic year, Cathcart was able to hold on to his seat.

If Walker attempts another run or if the Democrats find another strong candidate, this could be an interesting race to watch in 2010.

Here are how the number of total registered voters has increased since 2002 in the 9th:

Total registered voters
18,431---2008 (1834 newly registered since 2006)
16,597-2006 (909 newly registered since 2004)
15,688-2004 (2299 newly registered since 2002)

Here are the vote tallies for the last 3 elections in the 9th:

State Representative District 9
9 th Ditrict Total Voter Turnout***13,811
Democrat, R. Walker***6375
Republican, R.Cathcart***7436

State Representative District 9
Total Voter turnout**8,259
Democrat, R.Walker**3,843

9th District Total Voter Turnout**11,654
Democrat,V. Ascione** 4,154
Republican R.Cathcart**7,500

Relative Turnout a Factor in 9th State Rep Race

In 2008 Democratic challenger Rebecca Walker won in EDs 1,3,4,6,9 and Dick Cathcart, Republican incumbent, won in EDs 2,5,7,8,10, but Cathcart won the 9th State Rep race 7436 to 6375, in part due to higher turnout in districts where Cathcart won in comparison to turnout in districts where Walker won.

This is only one factor among several ,but it is a pattern that was consistent over the last three election cycles.

In 2006 Cathcart beat Walker 4416-3843. In 2004 Cathcart beat Vincent Ascione 7,500 to 4,154. Cathcart ran unopposed in 2002, the first election held after the 2002 reapportionment which brought the current configuration of this district into existence.

Here’s is turnout for Walker won combined 2008 EDS
2004 **71.4%
Here is turnout for Cathcart won combined 2008 EDS
2008**75.94 %
Election districts that went for Cathcart in each of the last 3 elections had 3.52%-4.85% higher turnout.

Turnout 1st of the 9th RD(Southern Elementary School)

Turnout 2nd of the 9th RD (Waters Middle School)
Turnout 3rd of the 9th RD (Brick Mill Elementary School)
Turnout 4th of the 9th RD (Delaware City Library)
Turnout 5th of the 9th RD (Odessa Fire Hall)

Turnout 6th ED of the 9th RD (Loss Elementary School)
Turnout 7th ED of the 9th RD (Port Penn Fire Hall)
Turnout 8th ED of the 9th RD (St Georges Technical School)
Turnout 9th ED of the 9th RD (Freewill Baptist Church)
Turnout 10th ED of the 9th RD (Cedar Lane Elementary School)
Districtwide Turnout 9th RD

Voter registration in the current 9th Representative District since the 2002 apportionment.

2008 ---7,819 Democrats—6275 Republicans---4,337Others
2006---6728 Democrats------5851Republicans----4018Others
2004---6307 Democrats---5646Republicans---3735Others

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Second Impression : 14th still a swing district, just shifted from leaning Republican to leaning Democratic

While State Representative Pete Schwartkopf ran unopposed and four of the five Democrats at the top of the ticket won in the 14th (Obama, Biden, Markell and Denn), the reality is that the Democrats lost four of eight contested races in the 14th: US House, Insurance Commissioner, State Senate and Clerk of Peace.

The swing in registration is significant in that the party which has a plurality of registered voters has changed from Republican to Democrat, but the registration edge has only changed from the Republicans having a 369 voter registration edge after the 2002 reapportionment to the Democrats having a 628 voter registration in 2008.

When you take into account that total registration has increased from 15,837 to 19,038 over that 6 year period, that swing has less impact because of a larger overall registration number. The 369 edge in 2002 gave Republicans an additional 2.4%. 628 additional Democrats in 2008 gives the Democrats an additional 3.3%. So the overall registration shift is 5.7% from the Republicans to the Democrats. The Democrats went from 38.2% to 40.9% and the Republicans went from 40.6% to 37.6%. A measurable change, but not a large guaranteed voter safety net for either party.

The percentage of registered voters who registered something other than Democrat or Republican has remained relatively stable. It was 21.1% in 2002. It was 21.4% in 2008.

It looks like for the foreseeable future, major party candidates will need to hold their party base and get a fair share of those independent voters to win in the 14th.

First Impression:The 14th may be “Blue Heaven” for Red State Sussex County

The 14th District which encompasses areas in and around Lewes and Rehoboth was part of a national voting pattern ,but parted company with the voting pattern of its Sussex County neighbors in the Nov 2008 election by giving almost total support to the Democratic ticket. While the 14th went for Mike Castle for Congress , local office holder John Brady for Insurance Commissioner and two local Republicans in a state senate race and the Clerk of Peace race, the rest of the ballot belonged to the Democrats. The Obama-Biden ticket lost Sussex County by over 7,000 votes,but won the 14th by 480. Joe Biden beat Christine O’Donnell by only a 273 vote margin countywide in the US Senate race, but he beat her by over 1500 votes in the 14th.

As mentioned here previously, in the 35h in Western Sussex Jack Markell and Matt Denn each lost the 35th by over 100 votes.They each won the 14th by over 1200 votes. The place was perceived to be so Democratic leaning that incumbent Democrat state representative, Pete Schwartzkopf, ran unopposed.

It was not designed this way and has not always been so Democratic leaning. In 2002 when the legislature was reapportioned, the 14th District number was reassigned from New Castle County, based on shifts in population documented in the 2000 census. At the time of reapportionment, a process controlled by the majority party in each House of the General Assembly, the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives and the newly created 14th was designed as a swing district. In 2002 there were 6430 Republicans, 6061 Democrats and 3346 Others.

In 2004 the gap narrowed to 6,558 Democrats, 6,756 Republicans and 3,604 Others. In 2006 the registration was 6978 Democrats to 6973 Republicans with 3869 Others. In 2008 the registration shift widened for the Democrats to 7,791 Democrats ,7,163 Republicans with 4,084Others . While some of these Democrats may be Republicans who switched registration to vote in the Governor’s primary in 2008, that does not explain the preceding shift in registration over the previous two election cycles.

I can not tell if these are locals who are changing affiliation or transplanted Democrats moving to the area, but the 14th does provide a place for Democrats running statewide to pick up enough votes to cut their losses in otherwise Republican Sussex County

14th District #s/Sussex Election Results

Sussex Countywide Results--2008
PRESIDENT-OBAMA (D) -40,299**MCCAIN (R)-47,939
U.S. SENATOR- BIDEN (D)- 43,395** O'DONNELL(R)- 43,123
US House- HARTLEY-NAGLE(D) 24,540** CASTLE(R)- 59,780
GOVERNOR-Markell(D)- 45,545** LEE(R)-- 40,584
LT GOVERNOR- DENN(D)- 43,273** COPELAND(R)- 41,257
Insurance Commissioner –Stewart(D)35,102**Brady(R)47,462


14th State Rep District--2008
US Senate-BIDEN (D)—7765**O'DONNELL(R)-6259
US House-Hartley-Nagle(D)—4412**CASTLE(R)-9322
Insurance CommissionerStewart(D & WF)-6029**Brady(R)7446
State Senate-Downes(D)5870**Simpson(R)6319
(6 of 7 election districts are in this state senate district)
State Representative-Schwartzkopf(D)-10616 (unopposed)

Voter Registration in the 14th State Representative District
Democrats 7,791--Republicans 7,163--Others 4,084--Total 19,038

Last Updated On 11/01/08 00:52:24
As of 10/14/2006

Democrats 6,978--Republicans 6,973--Others 3,869--Total 17,820
11 - 2 – 2004
Democrats6,558--Republicans 6,756--Others 3,604 --Total16,918
Democrats6,061--Republicans 6,430--Others 3,346--Total 15,837
2002 data
Updated: Monday, 16-Oct-2006 10:57:55 EDT

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

2008 Blog Prediction Result:Working Families Party Impact and A Curious "Straight Ticket" Voting pattern

Working Families Party Impact
“Based on past voting history I would say (Bill)Oberle is a safe bet to win in the 24th and (Jerry)Semper (39th) & (Dennis)Williams (10th) are likely to lose.”
“ There may be enough people who will vote for a candidate and not want to vote for the major party line, that (Karen) Stewart, (Terry)Spence and(Vince) Lofink could possibly win and have their share of Working Families votes be more than their margin of victory which would be a big coup for a relatively new party. It is distinctly possible a few hundred Democrats may feel more comfortable voting for Spence or Lofink on the Working Families line on the ballot without giving them Republican votes.”

Posted 11-4-2008
Well I was certainly wrong on Dennis Williams losing in the 10th district where he upset Bob Valihura and won by 192 votes. Bill Oberle’s race was closer than I had expected with his victory margin of only 602 votes. While the Working Families Party did not provide the margin of victory for any of its candidates it did make the losing margin significantly closer for some losers and boosted the victory margin for some winners.

Oberle won by 602, but without his 116 Working Family votes his winning margin would have been 486. Without his Working Family votes, Williams would have won by 142 votes.

Lofink lost by 48 votes, but came 117 votes closer to victory with his Working Family votes.While Terry Spence also lost , his 85 Working Family votes kept him within 319 votes of winner, Mike Barbieri. There is no proof that these votes would not have been cast for the same candidates no matter what their party banner, but we know that these votes were cast on that day on the Working Parties ballot line. My feeling is this party had an impact even though it did not provide the margin of victory in any races in Nov 2008.

The 16% winning margin for Karen Stewart and the over 35% losing margin for Jerry Semper made the Working Families votes have no impact in either of those races, but I observed an interesting voting pattern in what could be the equivalent of Working Families Party straight ticket voting. In each of the five rep districts where local candidates were fielded by the Working Families Party, Karen Stewart,the Democrat who won the Insurance Commissioner’s race and was the only statewide candidate endorsed by the Working Families Party, received 51.3%-61.7% of the number of votes the state rep candidate received. Her appeal relative to the endorsed state rep candidate remained constant within tha 10.4% range across these five districts despite the facts that :
(1) 2 were won by Republicans and 3 were won by Democrats ,
(2) 2 were won by endorsed candidates and in 3 the endorsed candidate lost and
(3) that the five districts had some geographic diversity with the 10th in Brandywine Hundred, the 18th,24th & 27th in New Castle County between Stanton and Glasgow and the 39th in Sussex County.

No exit polls were done on this type of question and the behavior of a few hundred voters in five of forty-one representative districts is a small sample, but it seemed to be an interesting pattern I have not yet found an explanation for. This will be interesting to watch in future elections if the Working Families Party continues to endorse major party candidates.

435 of 435 Districts Reported


12 of 12 Districts Reported


11 of 11 Districts Reported


9 of 9 Districts Reported


10 of 10 Districts Reported


7 of 7 Districts Reported


District 10

State Representative Dennis Williams WFP 52
53.8% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%

District 18

State Representative Spence WFP 85

52.9% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%

District 24

State Representative Oberle WFP 116
55.2% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
6 votes over 50%

District 27

State Representative Lofink WFP 117
51.3% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
2 votes over 50%

District 39

State Representative Semper WFP 60
61.7% of those voting for the local WFP candidate voted for Stewart
7 votes over 50%

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Prediction Result-Nov 2008-No Blue Tsunami in the 35th Rep District:Voters Give O’Donnell a thumbs-up and Give Chaffinch, Obama & Biden a thumbs down

35th State Representative District
“I am thinking Aaron Chaffinch has an uphill climb as the Democratic candidate for the 35th Representative District.”
“I am thinking (Dave) Wilson is more likely to win.”
Posted October 27, 2008
Aaron Chaffinch did indeed have an uphill climb. Republican Dave Wilson beat him by over 1800 votes, winning each of the seven election districts in the 35th Representative District in Western Sussex County.

In the Oct 27, 2008 post I also mentioned how this district accounted for about 2.1% of the state’s registered voters in 2006, but gave Christine O’Donnell 8.1% of her 2006 US Senate write-in votes. She proved to be a crowd favorite in the 35th again, beating Joe Biden by over 600 votes and winning 5 of 7 election districts. Ray Clatworthy had beaten Biden by 406 votes in 2002 , the last time Biden was on the ballot in the 35th.

Jack Markell and Matt Denn each came within 200 votes of winning the 35th Rep District so I guess in the not too distant future a Democrat may win there, but it looks like Democrats still have some convincing to do.

Having a Delawarean on the presidential ticket did not help the Democrats in the 35th where McCain-Palin beat Obama-Biden by over 1100 votes. The 35th Rep District joined all other Sussex County Districts except the 14th (near the beaches) in voting for McCain-Palin over Obama-Biden.The 14th supported Obama-Biden 7400-6920. Overall, Sussex County Supported McCain-Palin 47,939-40,299.

01-35 (Greenwood)----------Biden 697**O'Donnell 1177
02-35 (Bridgeville)--------Biden 1467**O'Donnell 1544
03-35 (Bridgeville)--------Biden 178**O'Donnell 240
04-35(west of Georgetown)--Biden 837**O'Donnell 694
05-35(west of Georgetown)--Biden 208**O'Donnell 270
06-35(Redden)-------------Biden 331**O'Donnell 480
07-35(Ellendale)----------Biden 236**O'Donnell 228
RD Tot--------------------Biden 3954**O'Donnell 4633
State Representative
01-35-------Chaffinch 652**Wilson 1203
02-35-------Chaffinch 1312**Wilson 1684
03-35-------Chaffinch 152**Wilson 257
04-35-------Chaffinch 628**Wilson 873
05-35-------Chaffinch 179**Wilson 291
06-35-------Chaffinch 233**Wilson 570
07-35-------Chaffinch 155**Wilson 296
RD Tot------Chaffinch 3311**Wilson 5174
Obama, Democrat, 3801--McCain, Republican 4920
US Senator
Biden, Democrat, 3954--O’Donnell, Republican, 4633
US House
Hartley-Nagle,Democrat-- 2502Castle, Republican, 5801
Markell, Democrat, 4183--Lee, Republican, 4326
Denn, Democrat,4129--Copeland, Republican,4236
Stewart,Democrat,3527-- Brady, Republican, 4617
Sussex County
Fuller,Democrat,3626-- Parish, Republican 4611

Friday, November 7, 2008

Prediction and Nov 4, 2008 General Election Results-6th State Senate Race

6th State Senate Race
“Unless ( John) McKenzie runs extremely well in the 23rd District and loses by a closer margin (to Liane Sorenson) than (Rick) DiLiberto ( in 2002) in the remainder of the senate district, I don’t think he has cause for optimism for victory.”
Posted September 12, 2008

McKenzie lost by 364 votes.
He won the 23rd District in Western Newark by 547 and won the 1st Election District of the 25th Representative District which votes at the Newark Free Library by 174 votes. He was unable to win the 23rd District across the board, losing in the 2nd Election District (First Presbyterian,Main St), the 9th ED (George Wilson Community Center) and the 10th ED (Maclary School).
He lost the areas north & west of the City of Newark in Hockessin, Yorklyn, and North Star in the 12th, 20th & 22nd Rep Districts by a large enough margin to offset his Newark margin which enabled Sorenson to retain her seat.
District******* MACKENZIE*********SORENSON L

08-12 ***********201********************435
12-20**********490******************** 784
20 th RD Tot***490*********************784
02-22 *********297*********************398
03-22 *********185********************305
10-22 ********340 ********************411
13-22 ********26 **********************53
14-22 ********140*********************173
22n RD******1451*******************2008

07-23******514****************** 336
10-23 ****206 *******************330
23rd RD **4353*****************3806

25 th RD**336*******************162
Cand Tot**6831*****************7195

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Outcome not a surprise, but victory margin was in the 10th Senate District.Voter dropoff an issue down ballot

I was startled by the wide margin by which Bethany Hall-Long won. Her registration edge was 4322. She won by 6411. I thought I might have been a bit conservative in predicting she would win by 800-1000,but I would not have guessed the split would have been this wide since it was an open seat represented by a Republican for the last 6 years.
Registration Totals 14,275 (D) 9,953(R) 7,811(others) 32,039(total)

23 of 23 Districts Reported


Some commentators might view this as part of some coattails of a general Democratic trend, but if that was the case other local candidates might have had wide victory margins as well in election districts in the 10th Senatorial.
A wide victory margin took place for incumbent Democrats , John Kowalko in the 25th, and John Viola in the 26th, each of whom actually outpaced Hall-Long in each of the election districts they share with her. It was not true for Democratic challengers in the other contested Representative Districts that overlap with Hall-Long’s 10th Senate District. These challengers lagged behind Hall-Long even in election districts where they won handily.
Here is what local state rep candidates did and how Hall –Long did in each of the election districts, along with Obama-McCain numbers to gauge coattails:

1st ED of the 8th RD-President-Obama (D ) 560**McCain (R ) 569
1st ED of the 8th RD -- 10th Senate District - Hall-Long( D ) 722**Weldin (R ) 393
1st ED of the 8th RD- -8th State Rep Dist-Johnson (D ) 508 ***Sturtevant (R ) 588
This election district has a Republican registration edge,but is also Hall-Long’s home election district
2nd ED of the 9th RD- President-Obama (D ) 979**McCain (R ) 805
2nd ED of the 9th RD --10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )1040 **Weldin (R ) 687
2nd ED of the 9th RD –9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) ** 729Cathcart (R)1023
6th ED of the 9th RD- President-Obama (D ) 1361McCain (R )656
6th ED of the 9th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )1249 **Weldin (R ) 669
6th ED of the 9th RD–9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) 1108**Cathcart (R) 821

8th ED of the 9th RD – President-Obama (D ) 586 McCain (R ) 422
8th ED of the 9th RD –10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )617 **Weldin (R ) 367

8th ED of the 9th RD ––9th Rep Dist Walker (D )406*** Cathcart (R)584

10th ED of the 9th RD – President-Obama (D ) 631McCain (R ) 576

10th ED of the 9th RD –10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )650 **Weldin (R ) 513

10th ED of the 9th RD ––9th Rep Dist Walker (D ) **401Cathcart (R)788

6th ED of the 15th RD-President-Obama (D ) 1245 McCain (R ) 315
6th ED of the 15th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 1125 **Weldin (R ) 314
6th ED of the 15th RD Longhurst (D ) unopposed
__________________________________________________________________ 1stED of the 24th RD- President-Obama (D ) 309***McCain (R )124
1st ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 274 **Weldin (R ) 129

1st ED of the 24th RD- 24th Representative District Basara (D ) 167**Oberle (R ) 247
7th ED of the 24th RD-President-Obama (D ) 459**McCain (R )119
7th ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 396 **Weldin (R ) 125

7th ED of the 24th RD-24th Representative District Basara (D ) 328** Oberle (R ) 194

9th ED of the 24th RD-President-Obama (D ) 638** McCain (R )284
9th ED of the 24th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )575 **Weldin (R ) 281

9th ED of the 24th RD-24th Representative District Basara (D ) 316** Oberle (R ) 561

2nd ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 672**McCain (R ) 325
2nd ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 604 **Weldin (R ) 334

2nd ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 729 **Gates (R) 247
5th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 555***McCain (R ) 341
5th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )514 **Weldin (R ) 338

5th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 614** Gates (R)249
6th ED of the 25th RD-President**Obama (D ) 641***McCain (R )396
6th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 583**Weldin (R ) 432

6th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 689**Gates (R) 339
7th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D ) 502**McCain (R )291
7th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 456**Weldin (R ) 311

7th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 516 **Gates (R) 258
9th ED of the 25th RD-President-Obama (D )302** McCain (R ) 114
9th ED of the 25th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )290 **Weldin (R ) 105

9th ED of the 25th RD-25th Representative District Kowalko ( D) 309***Gates (R)90
2nd ED of the 26th RD-President-Obama (D )** 642 McCain (R )166
2nd ED of the 26th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )614 **Weldin (R ) 157

2nd ED of the 26th RD-26th Representative District Viola (D ) 632Filliben (R ) 136
8th ED of the 26th RD-Obama (D ) 528**McCain (R )84
8th ED of the 26th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 475 **Weldin (R ) 86

8th ED of the 26th RD-26th Representative District Viola (D ) 497 **Filliben (R )58
1st ED of the 27th RD-President-Obama (D ) 711** McCain (R )282
1st ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 666 **Weldin (R ) 262

1st ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D ) 535*Lofink (R&W )442* Spencer (I )18
2nd ED of the 27th RD -Obama (D ) 480** McCain (R )209
2nd ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 442 **Weldin (R ) 202

2nd ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )368 Lofink (R&W )279Spencer (I)14

3rd ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D ) 642 McCain (R ) 228
3rd ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D )544 **Weldin (R ) 269

3rd ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques(D )453 Lofink (R&W )353Spencer(I)30
4th ED of the 27th RD-President-Obama (D ) 446** McCain (R )223
4th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 378 **Weldin (R ) 270

4th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )311**Lofink(R&W )338 **Spencer (I) 20

8th ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D ) 794**McCain (R ) 510
8th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 702 **Weldin (R ) 547

8th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )638 Lofink (R&W )609Spencer (I)50

9th ED of the 27th RD-President**Obama (D )713 McCain (R )323
9th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 628 **Weldin (R ) 346

9th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )511 Lofink (R&W )465*Spencer(I) 23

10th ED of the 27th RD-Obama (D ) 530**McCain (R )362
10th ED of the 27th RD-10th Senate District - Hall-Long ( D ) 421 **Weldin (R ) 417

10th ED of the 27th RD-27th RepDist-Jaques (D )293** Lofink (R&W )570**Spencer (I)6

Total 10th Senate--Hall-Long ( D) 13,965**** Weldin (R ) 7554
President’s race in 10th Senate Obama (D ) 14,926*** McCain ( R)7,724
22,020 voted in the presidential race( major parties). 21,519 voted in 10th Senate.
Hall-Long had 961 fewer votes than Obama.
Weldin had 170 fewer votes than McCain.
Obama got 67.8%. Hall-Long got 64.9%. I think several hundred Democrats just did not make it to the bottom of the ballot.

Lofink (R- 27th) and Oberle (R-24th) ran on the Working Families Party line , in addition to the Republicans. In this post I have provided the combined totals for each of them.
Jim Spencer ran in the 27th as the Independent Party candidate.
Geography in very general terms:
8th & 9th –area near C&D canal
15th- Bear area
24th- Newark (East)
25th-Newark (East)
26th Bear-Glasgow area
27th-Glasgow area

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Possible Election Winner You Never Heard of-The Working Families Party

You may have never heard of the Working Families Party,but they may have an impact in 2008 in some close races.
Here is a description from the Party’s website:
The Delaware Working Families Party is a grassroots, community and labor based political party. We strive to make elected officials address issues that matter most to working-class, middle-class, and poor families that work hard to make ends meet-issues like jobs, health care, education, and housing.

The Working Families Party has Endorsed 6 candidates on today’s ballot, Karen Weldin Stewart in the Insurance Commissioner’s race and five candidates for state representative.
Here is the list of endorsements:

Karen Stewart ( D ) Insurance Commissioner
Dennis Williams ( D ) 10th
Vince Lofink (R ) 27th
Terry Spence ( R ) 18th
Bill Oberle (R ) 24th
Jerry Semper (D ) 39th

Based on past voting history I would say Oberle is a safe bet to win in the 24th and Semper & Williams are likely to lose.
The other three races are expected to be close and the endorsement could be a deciding factor. There may be enough people who will vote for a candidate and not want to vote for the major party line, that Stewart, Spence and Lofink could possibly win and have their share of Working Families votes be more than their margin of victory which would be a big coup for a relatively new party.

Spence won by 601 in 2006 and Lofink won by only 128 votes. Each of these districts has at least 2000 more Democrats than Republicans. It is distinctly possible a few hundred Democrats may feel more comfortable voting for Spence or Lofink on the Working Families line on the ballot without giving them Republican votes.

2006 18th Representative District

MICHAEL A BARBIERI *** 2,123*** 43 . 8 %
TERRY R SPENCE *** 2,724*** 56 . 2 %

2006 27th Representative District

EARL JAQUES **** 2,921** 48 . 9 %
VINCENT A LOFINK **** 3,049** 51 . 1 %

18th Representative District


27th Representative District


For more about this party:

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Multiple Factors make Democrat Bethany Hall-Long the Likely Winner in 10th State Senate open seat.

Factor (1) She has a significant Democratic registration edge:

10th State Senate District

Democrats **** Republicans****Others*****Total
14,275*********9,953********* 7,811******32,039

The person State Representative Bethany Hall-Long seeks to replace is retiring Republican Sen Steve Amick whose legislative service is: State Representative 1986-1994; State Senator 1994-present, Minority Whip 1997-98,Minority Leader 1999-2002.
Amick’s district was primarily Newark based until 2002’s reapportionment and the center of gravity for the 10th State Senate District moved southward closer to where Hall-Long lives. In 2002 Amick won his new seat 6,436 to 4,393 over Democrat Julie Dugan of Newark. He beat Dugan 10,895 to 8,884 in their 2004 rematch.

I see Hall-Long in a similar situation as Amick was in 2002 ,but with a registration edge which Amick did not have. Each of them could claim years of legislative experience while much of it was not representing the people who would be voting for them at the time of the election: Amick’s 2002 election or 2008, in Hall-Long’s case ,since only her own election district is the only election district in the 8th Rep District that is also in the 10th State Senate District.

I heard Hall-Long and Republican Jim Weldin at the Embassy Suites debate last month and she pointed out the number of occasions she had worked across the aisle with Amick. Representing adjacent areas and overlapping representation in her election district, they most likely addressed many of the same quality of life constituent concerns.

Factor # (2)This places Hall-Long in the enviable position of being able to represent both a change and continuity at the same time.

Factor #(3)This is the fifth consecutive election that Hall-Long has been on the ballot in the area, although this represents three different ballots: the pre-2002 9th Representative District in 2000, the current 8th Representative District in 2002, 2004 & 2006 and the current 10 th State Senate District in this election cycle. Jim Weldin has not been on the general election ballot in the area since 2002. This may mean a big difference in name recognition.

Factor # (4) Hall-Long raised $89,394.47 as of 10-27-2008. Weldin raised $20,320.68.
An additional $69,000 can mean a lot more mailings and ads are possible to get one’s message out.

If Hall-Long wins she will be serving with several other former House members.
Six of the current 21 state senate members have made the transition from State House of Representative to State Senate:
Sen Steve Amick
Sen. George Bunting
Sen Bruce Ennis
Sen Cathy Clouthier
Sen Dave McBride
Sen Liane Sorenson
My pick is Hall-Long wins by 800-1000 votes.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Gerald Brady Likely Repeat Winner in the 4th Rep District

Disclaimer: This is not an endorsement, but in the interest of transparency I mention that I have known Gerald Brady since 1996 and was a campaign volunteer during his 1996 campaign. I have never met Tyler Nixon,but have heard him on local talk radio. As with all of the previous posts , I am not attempting to convince the reader who they should or should not vote for---just who I think is likely to win.

Democrat Gerald Brady has held public office since 1996 representing much of what is now the 4th Representative District for that entire time. He has represented the areas around Trolley Square, Rockford Park, Wawaset Park and Tower Hill as the 8th District City Council member for 10 years and 2 years as a State Representative . This gives him an advantage in name recognition.

The 8th City Council District comprises 5 of the 19 election districts in the 4th Representative District: the 1st,3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th election districts. Election Districts are not mandated to be of equal size,so these five election districts make up 8529 voters of the 4th Representative District’s 16,088 voters or 53.0%.

Please be aware that when the district boundary lines were drawn in 2002, the district was represented by a powerful Republican, Joe DiPinto who served as chair of the Joint Finance Committee while in the legislature, and that the House had a Republican majority which drew the district lines. Brady did not make these lines ,but has politically navigated well within them.

His opponent , Tyler Nixon , has never held elected office and in a year when there is a claim people want change, that might be an asset ,but having his opponent outraise him in campaign contributions by more than 3-1 means he has less ability to get whatever message he has out to the public.

Some online Nixon supporters have raised the campaign finance report of Gerald Brady as an issue, claiming Brady’s contributors constitute a group of special interests. That may have an impact, but I think voters see fund-raising as part of the process and as long as the people contributing don’t have current legal problems I don’t think this issue gets much traction with voters.

Tony Rezko’s dealings with Barack Obama and Al Gore’s campaign contributions at the Buddhist Temple a couple elections ago did not determine their electability and these issues got extensive media coverage. Nixon has not implied anything beyond that he thinks Brady has supporters who have a vested influence in legislation and the issue has not gotten much media coverage outside of talk radio and the blogs.

If no one who has a vested interest in legislation could donate, it would be tough under current rules to finance a campaign. A quick review of the 30-day and 8-day campaign finance reports for House Speaker Terry Spence and Rep Bill Oberle, both Republicans in leadership positions, finds contribution histories not shockingly different than Brady’s: some labor unions, some corporate PACs, some registered lobbyists and some private citizens. It seems like if this issue had across-the-board political traction, all the Republican candidates would be running against what Nixon calls “special interest” money.

Brady won in 2006 by 55-45 % margin after a primary to see what Democrat would run for the vacancy created by DiPinto’s retirement. In 2008 he had no primary and has two years incumbency.
Brady also has a healthy registration edge.
I predict Brady wins by at least a 60-40% margin.

Campaign Finance #s & Registration #s for the 4th Rep

Campaign Contributions received:

Brady ( D)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $6,124.16
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $15,850.
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $4,550.00
Total raised **************** $26,524.16

Nixon (R )
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $97.10
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $5080.00
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $375.00
Nixon has lent his campaign $1,000 over the course of the campaign.
Total raised and loaned ************** $6552.10
7,533****4,765**3,790** 16,088

If Money Talks, The Democrats May Shout Over Wins At the C&D Canal

Money may not buy elections,but it can pay for the lawn signs, postage and leaflets one needs to get one's name & message out.
In fund-raising , the Democrats in the 10th State Senate and 8th State Representative seats, have far outpaced their GOP rivals

From the Campaign Finance Reports from the Election Commissioner’s website:

Senate District
Hall –Long (D) -
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $11,605.25
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $39,970.00
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $37,819.22

Weldin (R)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ****** $1,744.22
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ***** $11,501.12
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $7,075.56

8th Representative District
Johnson ( D)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ***** $0
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ***** $21,348.79
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ****** $5,375.00
Johnson also loaned his campaign $5,051.25 over the course of the campaign

Sturtevant ( R)
On hand as of 1-1-2008 ******* $0
Rec’d 1-1-08 to 10-5-08 ****** $11,950
Rec’d 10-6-08 to 10-27-08 ***** $7,694.00

E-Focus Group of Md School Board Candidates on HB 117 implications

On the assumption that Delawareans have opinions about school board elections held on the date of a general election and Marylanders have experience in holding school board elections on the same day as the general election, I have done an electronic focus group of 2008 Maryland school board candidates. This process was inspired by discussion of HB 117 which is now in the Delaware House Education Committee and proposes to move school board election day in Delaware from the spring as a stand alone election to November when school board would be on the general election ballot.

I e-mailed 92 former candidates after getting their names and email addresses from the Maryland Elections website. As of 4-28-2009 I have had 9 "failed -undeliverable" responses. This may be due to spam filters. It is also possible some had the email accounts only for the election and no longer have the same email address almost 6 months later. I have gotten 16 complete responses with answers. Three persons have responded,but have not yet supplied answers to the questions I posed.

I am reviewing the answers I have received and waiting a few days for additional answers. By week's end I hope to have the beginning of a review of the answers given by some Maryland School Board candidates on the concept of school board elections being held on general election day and some of my thoughts on the issue and their responses.

Monday, October 27, 2008

The 35th Rep District: Is it a Red District in a Blue State?

I am thinking Aaron Chaffinch has an uphill climb as the Democratic candidate for the 35th Representative District. The state representative seat is an open seat with the retirement of the current incumbent, Republican Ben Ewing, who has held the seat since 1987. Chaffinch is opposed by Dave Wilson, the current Sussex County Register of Wills, who has been elected 3 times countywide and has Ewing’s endorsement.

The 35th Representative District encompasses Bridgeville, Greenwood and some rural areas west of Georgetown. It has a Democratic registration edge (5,122 Democrats, 4,487 Republicans and 2,593 Others as of 10-1-2008) . In some places 2008 is perceived to be a Democratic year. However, a review of some numbers from the Election Commissioner’s website say it might not be a Democratic year in the 35th this year.

The two primaries held this year indicate that in the 35th District the Republican voters appear to be more energized than the Democrats. Below are the turnout numbers.

The presidential primary in Feb 2008 saw a 38% turnout statewide in the Democratic primary, but only a 27.6 % turnout in the 35th. In the Republican presidential primary there was a 28.0% turnout both statewide and in the 35th.

In the September statewide primary Democrats had a 27.8% turnout,but only a 23.1% turnout in the 35th. The Republicans had a 16% turnout statewide in the Sept 2008 primary, but the 35th had a 24.4% turnout. Five of seven election districts were involved in either the Sussex County Council District 2 or District 3 races to nominate the Republican candidates so these local races may have skewed primary turnout somewhat, but it still shows some energy since people went to the polls.

This is nominally a swing district. In 2004 Ruth Ann Minner (D) lost to Bill Lee (R ) by 1063 votes for Governor, while in the Lt Governor’s race John Carney (D ) won by 615 votes. In 2006 Beau Biden ( D ) lost to Ferris Wharton ( R ) in the Attorney General race in the 35th by 248, while Tom Carper ( D ) beat Jan Ting ( R ) by 2624 to 1439 in the US Senate race.

This is not an average Delaware swing district though. If you do further investigation on the Election Commissioner’s website, you learn that in the 35th District , Christine O’Donnell, who had lost the Senate GOP primary in Sept 2006 and intentionally positioned herself as the most conservative candidate in the Senate race as a write-in in 2006 , received 896 write-in votes in the 35th District. O’Donnell received 11,127 write-in votes statewide. 8.1% of her statewide total came out of the 35th District. As of 10-13-2006 the 35th represented 11, 518 of the state’s 557,703 or 2.1 % of all voters. A district that accounted for about one out of fifty voters statewide also accounted for about one out of every 12 votes cast by write-in for the most conservative candidate campaigning. This district was not only much more likely to vote conservative, they were committed enough to what they valued to take the extra steps write-in voting entails.

If he is looking for coattails at the top of the ticket from the Obama-Biden presidential ticket, he may not find it in the 35th District. In 2004 George W Bush ( R )crushed John Kerry (D ) 4581- 2440. The last time Joe Biden was on the ballot in 2002, he won his Senate re-election bid with 58.2% statewide. Joe Biden lost the 35th District to Ray Clatworthy 2499 to 2093. On top of this, Barack Obama lost the presidential primary to Hillary Clinton in the 35th by a 668-593 margin despite winning the statewide primary with 53.3% , so there may not be total party unanimity among Democrats.

Chaffinch’s puzzle strategically is how to run conservative enough to not totally alienate what appears to be a fairly energized conservative base without veering so far to the right he convinces whatever moderate to liberal voters that exist there that he is no different than the Republican candidate and they avoid the race altogether.

The News-Journal profile of the race appears to indicate both candidates are focusing more on constituent services and issues not necessarily owned by either the conservative or liberal camp like open government , education, senior services and public safety rather than focusing on obviously polarizing issues like abortion or gun control. Chaffinch’s finance report and the News-Journal article indicate he has ties to State Senator Thurman Adams, the senate president pro tempore who has represented the area in the Senate since 1972. Possibly with intense voter contact ( mailing & door-to-door) and Adams’ goodwill (if Adams continues to be perceived to be responsive to his constituents) , Chaffinch can make enough in roads to win.
As usual, I am not endorsing anyone (and have never even met either of these particular candidates), just trying to see if the numbers from the past can give us a hint of what will happen in the future.
I am thinking Wilson is more likely to win.

News-Journal profile of the race:

State Election Commissioner's website:

Friday, October 17, 2008

Some more thoughts on local races & turnout

The last post used examples from the Sept 2008 Democratic primary to make the argument that state legislative prmiaries might tend to drive up turnout in an area than a county council race, based on a small sample that was on the ballot in September.
The 4th & 6th State Senate races did have higher turnout that the 8th & 12th New Castle County Council district races, but there was an additional factor that might have caused this besides my contention that people may focus more on state related local races than county related races.
The 4th Senate races is for an open seat which is being vacated by State Senator Charles Copeland's run for Lt Gov. In the 6th state senate race, 2 Democrats (john McKenzie & Mike Terranova)vied to see who could attempt to unseat state senator Liane Sorenson in November, so there was no incumbent Democrat.
In both the 8th & the 12th county council races, an underfunded challenger sought to unseat a Democratic incumbent.
Maybe the fact that these seats had Democratic incumbents was a factor in keeping turnout low.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Not all local primaries are equal drivers of voter turnout.Some Context for Assessing Relative Voter Turnout Performance

My theory stated before the primary was that the presence of local primaries would possibly drive up the turnout in the statewide races in those districts that have local (state representative or county council,for example). It appears that may be on target with a couple qualifications.

It appears that within a Representative District at least 3 election districts (the voting unit in Delaware, often called a precinct in other areas) must be part of the local primary which is not always the case. A state senate district or county council district may overlap 4-6 state representative districts. In some it may encompass the entire district, for example the 6th Senate District takes in the entire 23rd Representative District, but takes in only one election district in the 25h Representative District.Turnout in the 23rd Representative District was 34.2% and turnout in the 25th Representative District was 24.6%.These are adjacent Newark Districts. Both are in the Christina School District.They appear similar areas in a lot of ways,but had 10% turnout difference on 9-11-08.
In Southern Delaware 2 adjacent districts in Sussex County further illustrate that local primaries can drive up statewide primary votes. In the 41st Representative District, where John Atkins seeks to represent a district as a Democrat he previously represented as a Republican, the 2008 turnout in the Governor’s race was 33.1%.Atkins won a primary to be on the ballot for his old seat. The 40th District, just to the west of the 41st, had no local primaries and had a turnout in the Governor’s race of 22.1%. Once again , adjacent district with a 10% difference in turnout and the one with higher turnout has a local state legislative primary.

It seems state legislative races (at least for the 2008 primary) were the local turnout drivers and not county government county council races in New Castle County,although the only Levy Court Democratic primary in Kent County had a turnout above the statewide 27.8 %. There were no Democratic primary county races in Sussex County which has a county council.

Below are some examples for New Castle County that illustrate:

The 15th RD has only a 23.3% turnout in the governor’s race despite having 6 EDs in the 12 th County Council District primary. The 9th RD had 5 EDS in the same county council primary and had 28.8% turnout ,so the race did not push RD turnout much above the average turnout

The 12th RD has 5 EDs that were in either the 4th or 6th State Senate primary and its primary turnout for the Governor’s primary was 36.7%.

Below is the turnout in each of the six local races for either the Delaware General Assembly or county goverment for the local races themselves
State Senate District 4:
10,778 Dems registered, 3854 voted, 35.8% turnout
State Senate District 6:
8,353 Dems registered, 2629 voted, 31.5% turnout
State Representative 41:
6,370 Dems registered,2033 voted,31.9% turnout
New Castle County Council 8thDst:
14,608 Dems registered,3456 voted, 23.7%
New Castle County Council 12th District:
18,576 Dem Registered,4693 voted,25.3%
Kent County Levy Court 3rd District:
4,245 Dems registered, 1427 voted, 33.6% turnout

Monday, October 13, 2008

No Local Primary Equals Lower Turnout or Average Turnout for Statewide Primary Except in Eastern Sussex

Voter turnout for the Delaware Democratic Primary was 27.8%. 18 of 41 Representative Districts had no local primaries. Voters statewide faced a ballot with only the Governor’s race, the Insurance Commissioner’s race and the race for the US House seat. Voters in New Castle County also had races for County Executive and County Council President.

Of these 18 districts, 12 had turnout in the Governor’s race under 27.8% with the 5th District and the 26th District ,both in the Bear area, having turnout below 20%. 3 Representative Districts had turnout over 27.8%,but less than 28.8%.
Three districts had turnout that exceeded 27.8% by at least 1 % point. All three of the districts that exceeded the average by more than a percentage point were in Eastern Sussex County: the 14th in the Lewes-Rehoboth area, the 37th which stretches from Lewes-Georgetown and the 36th which takes in Milton, Slaughter and Ellendale.

I have not had time to research the demographics, but the area has become a haven for large numbers of people from nearby states (Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania) which have a longer history of the use of primaries to settle political disputes. Delaware has only had statewide primaries instead of the Delaware Democratic Convention as the vehicle to determine who went on the ballot since the 1970s. It is possible these newcomers are more used to voting in primaries and so vote in higher numbers than native Delawareans. The validity of this theory may be easier to measure as more Census data becomes available.

I think it is notable that the 36th & 37th ,adjacent districts in Sussex with 3 offices on the ballot each had at least 10 % points more turnout than the 5th,18th,24th, and 26th districts in New Castle where there were 5 offices on the ballot.

In case you are thinking this stuff is an abstract discussion, here are what these districts did in the Governor’s primary:
5th Rep District Carney won by 91 votes
18th Rep District Carney won by 1 vote
24th Rep District Markell won by 75 votes
26th Carney won by 80 votes
36th Markell won by 307 votes
37th Markell won by 257 votes
In a race where 1,737 votes was the winning margin, having a 10% higher turnout in areas where Markell was strong may have been pivotal.

(Bear-Glasgow)5th RD-------18.3%--no local primaries
(MOT-near C&D Canal)8th RD-------21.9%-no local primaries
(Rehoboth-Lewes)14th RD------29.1%--no local primaries
(Stanton-Christiana)18th RD------22.0%--no local primaries
(Stanton-Newport)19th RD------28.7%--no local primaries
(Kirkwood Hwy-Rte 7)21st RD------28.5%--no local primaries
(outside Newark east of Salem Church Rd)24th RD------17.4%--no local primaries
(Bear-Christiana)26th RD------19.2%--no local primaries
(Kenton-Cheswold)29th RD------24.6%--no local primaries
(Harrington-Farmington)30th RD------21.2%--no local primaries
(Magnolia-Frederica)33rd RD------23.8%--no local primaries
(Camden-Wyoming)34th RD------23.5%--no local primaries
(Bridgeville-Greenwood-Georgetown)35th RD------23.1%--no local primaries
(Milton-Slaughter Beach-Elendale)36th RD------30.2%--no local primaries
(Lewes-Georgetown)37th RD------33.1%--no local primaries
(Ocean View-South Bethany)38th RD------28.6%--no local primaries
(Seaford-Blades)39th RD------24.1%--no local primaries
(Delmar-Bethel-Hardscrabble)40th RD------22.1%--no local primaries

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Omission correction to the last post

I had not yet placed whether each of these districts had local Democratic primaries in September when I posted on 10-10-2008.
Please note that some of these polling places may comprise more than one election district since sometimes election districts are merged during a primary. For example in 2006 there were 436 districts in the general election, but only 330 districts in the primary.

28th RD------25.8%- 4 EDs in 3rd District Kent County Levy Court( 4 of 9 polling places)
31st RD------24.4%-2 EDs in 3rd District Kent County Levy Court (2 of 6 polling places)
32nd RD------20.9%-2 EDs in 3rd District Kent County Levy Court (2 of 5 polling places)

Friday, October 10, 2008

Turnout Percentage in the 2008 Delaware Democratic Primary for Governor and the Prevalence of Local Primaries in Representative Districts (RDs)

RD=State Representative District
ED=Election District (the smallest voting unit in Delaware, sometimes called precincts in other places)

1st RD-------40.1%-- Eds 8&10(8th county council)/EDs 1-9 &11 (Wilmington Mayor ,pres city council,local city council races)
2nd RD-------29.6%(mayor,city council pres & 7 of 16 EDS had local city council district races)
3rd RD-------24.3%(mayor ,president city council, and 2 of 7 polling places –local city council district)
4th RD-------38.7%-2nd,11th &16th ED(4th senate), (Mayor,city council president ,5 city EDs had local city council)
5th RD-------18.3%--no local primaries

6th RD-------29.1%--6th & 7th ED(4th Senate)/1st-5th & 8th –12th Eds (8th county council)
7th RD-------37.2%--1st,9th & 14th ED (4th Senate)/ 4th-8th Eds (8th county council)
8th RD-------21.9%-no local primaries
9th RD-------28.4%--1st, 3rd-5th & 7th –10th Eds(12th county council)
10th RD------27.5%--1st,2nd,6th-8th EDs (4th Senate)/4th,5th, 9th-11th Eds (8th county council)
11th RD------34.4%--3rd, 4th, 6th-11th Eds (4th Senate)/ 12th-14th Eds (8th county council)
12th RD------36.7%-- Eds 4,7, 10 & 11 (4th Senate)/8th ED (6th Senate

13th RD------25.9%--ED3(City councilPres & Mayor-Wilmington)

14th RD------29.1%--no local primaries
15th RD------23.3%--Eds 1,3,4,7,8,9 (12th county council)
16th RD------30.0%-Eds 1,10 & 11(12th county council) ED 6 (city council pres,district 4 &mayor-Wilmington)
17th RD------27.7%EDs 1-4,6 & 8 (12th county council)
18th RD------22.0%--no local primaries
19th RD------28.7%--no local primaries
20th RD------34.4%--13th (4th Senate), 12 th (6th Senate)
21st RD------28.5%--no local primaries
22nd RD------33.1%--1st(4th Senate)/ 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 10th, 13th & 14th (6th Senate)
23rd RD------34.2%-all Eds (1-10) in the 6th SenateDistrict primary
24th RD------17.4%--no local primaries
25th RD------24.6%--1st ED in the 6th senate district primary
26th RD------19.2%--no local primaries
27th RD------22.0%--Eds 7& 10 (12th county council)
28th RD------25.8%
29th RD------24.6%--no local primaries
30th RD------21.2%--no local primaries
31st RD------24.4%
32nd RD------20.9%
33rd RD------23.8%--no local primaries
34th RD------23.5%--no local primaries
35th RD------23.1%--no local primaries
36th RD------30.2%--no local primaries
37th RD------33.1%--no local primaries
38th RD------28.6%--no local primaries
39th RD------24.1%--no local primaries
40th RD------22.1%--no local primaries
41st RD------33.1%-all Eds 41st Rep District primary