Thursday, April 30, 2009

E-Focus group survey of MD 2008 school board candidates on the implications of HB 117

Based on the assumption that Delawareans had opinions on school board elections on general election day and Marylanders have actual experience with school board elections being held on general election day , I emailed 92 Maryland 2008 school candidates with a five question survey .

As of April 30, 2009 I have had 9 emails that were not deliverable. This may be due to spam filters. It could also be that some candidates set up email addresses for the election and are not now checking those email accounts almost 6 months after the election.

I have had responses from three candidates who have not yet answered the survey and we have been playing telephone & email tag. Complete responses with answers to survey questions have been received from 16 candidates.
At week's end I will review the completed responses I have received and as soon as possible provide some analysis of the responses ,along with some of my thoughts about the answers.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Email survey that was sent to Md 2008 school board candidates

I am John Tobin, the author of a blog about Delaware politics, and I am researching potential outcomes if HB 117, a Delaware General Assembly proposal to move Delaware school board elections from Spring to the date of the November general election every two years, is enacted into law. Since you have been a school board candidate in your county in an election held on the same date as the general election , I felt you would be an ideal person to ask for an opinion.
Currently school board elections in Delaware are nonpartisan and a person does not have to be registered to vote in school board elections. While school board elections would continue to be nonpartisan, HB 117 would mandate that voters be registered.
Please answer the following questions, if time allows:
(1) Do you feel having school board elections on the same date as the general election makes them more partisan, even if they are officially nonpartisan ?
(2) Do you feel having school board elections on the same date as the general election drives up the cost of campaigns for school board elections? If so, does the expense near that of partisan races?
(3) Do you feel voters in school board elections should be required to be registered voters? If they are not in your county, can you explain how this is facilitated in the voting booth ?
(4) Can you explain any benefits you can see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?
(5) Can you explain any disadvantages you see from holding school board elections on the same day as the general election?
Thank you for answering these questions and please feel free to offer any extended comments you might feel comfortable sharing.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Beau Biden and John Carney have a recent track record raising campaign money

As of Dec 31, 2008 Beau Biden reported having $$148.698.95 on hand ,having raised $161,219.41 from Jan 1,2008 to Dec 31, 2008. As of 12-31-2007 Biden had $5,399.84 on hand. Biden raised $161,219.41 while not on the ballot in the middle of his current 4 year term as Attorney General.

John Carney reported having $$6.321.32 on hand as of 12-31-2008.Carney reported raising $212,616.39 between 9-2-2008 and 12-31-2008 , $155,508.64 between 8-11-2008 and 9-1-2008 and $421,965.27 between 1-1-2008 and 8-31-2008. As of 12-31-2007 Carney $1,000,321.04 on hand. It appears that Carney spent cover $1.7 million on his unsuccessful bid to be Governor.



http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

Friday, April 10, 2009

The most recent finance numbers on Mike Castle

It appears Mike Castle’s campaign had $841,543.23 on hand as of 3-31-2009, roughly 19 months before the polls open in Nov. 2010.
Federal candidates must file quarterly ,so his next report will be in 3 months.


From the Federal Election Commission’s website:

http://www.fec.gov/


The link to Mike Castle’s 4-10-2009 filing with his campaign’s finance’s eff 3-31-2009 from the FEC website:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00254938/411848/




FEC FORM 3
REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS
For An Authorized Committee
FILING FEC-411848

1. Castle Campaign Fund
PO Box 133
Wilmington, Delaware 198990133
State is Delaware in District: 1
Report Type = APR QUARTERLY

SUMMARY PAGE
Of Receipts And Disbursements
5. Covering Period 01/01/2009 Through 03/31/2009


-----------------------------------Column A This Period---------------Column B
--------------------------------------------------------------ElectionCycle-To-Date

6. Net Contributions (other than loans)
(a) Total Contributions (other than loans) 71500.00------------------- 73200.00
(b) Total Contribution Refunds----------------0.00--------------------- 2500.00
(c) Net Contributions (6(a) - 6(b))-------- 71500.00------------------ 70700.00
7. Net Operating Expenditures
(a) Total Operating Expenditures ----------68417.56------------------ 220441.81
(b) Total Offsets to Operating Expenditures 1612.20------------------- 12912.20
(c) Net Operating Expenditures------------ 66805.36------------------ 207529.61
8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period $841,543.23
9. Debts and Obligations Owed TO the Committee 0.00
Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D
10. Debts and Obligations Owed BY the Committee 0.00
Itemize all on SCHEDULE C or SCHEDULE D

Sunday, April 5, 2009

In 2010 Will Democrats Have the Dollars to Compete with Mike Castle?

Money can not necessarily guarantee an election victory,but it can provide things like organization and name recognition. This is particularly true in a statewide race more than local races, since it would not be likely that a statewide candidate will be able to have as much extended person-to-person contact with individual voters as a local candidate because the voter base is so much larger .

The campaign finance numbers from the Open Secrets website which tracks campaign finance from the Federal Elections Commission and the election percent results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website indicate that Mike Castle’s ability to raise money may have had a big impact. Over the last five election cycles Castle has outraised his opponents in dramatic fashion with closest ratio being about 3-1 in the 2006 race with Dennis Spivack. In 2000 Castle outraised Mike Miller by a 14-1 margin. The other three races had Castle outraising Miller (2002), Paul Donnelly (2004) and Karen Hartley-Nagel (2008) by margins exceeding 50-1.

Several years of incumbency does not hurt Castle’s chances. However, for a challenger to seriously give him a run for his money, I am thinking they may need to raise an amount closer to what Castle is used to raising.

It is notable that none of the Democratic candidates he faced between 2000 and 2008 has ever held public office. This might have impacted their ability to raise money. It might be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If potential donors believe a candidate can’t win because he/she has never held office, that belief limits donations and may go a long way towards f preventing that candidate from winning elective office. This may be an issue if the Democratic nominee is one of the recent nominees or if it is soon-to-announce candidate Scott Spencer, a long-time community activist on transportation and energy issues who has not previously held elective office. It is not impossible to win without holding prior elective office, but that does mean the candidate has to start from scratch in the fund-raising and name recognition areas.

Two of the possible candidates rumored to be considering an election contest against Castle, Attorney General Beau Biden and former Lt Governor John Carney, have both had past statewide election victories and have experience raising money for statewide races. I plan to research their fund-raising history in upcoming weeks.



http://www.opensecrets.org/races/results.php?qname=castle


2008
Mike Castle
61 . 1 % of the vote

Raised:
$1,480,591
Spent:
$1,808,076
Cash on Hand:
$862,744
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

Karen Hartley-Nagle
Karen Hartley-Nagle (D)
38 . 0 % of the vote
Raised:
$27,845
Spent:
$27,785
Cash on Hand:
$58
Last Report:
December 31, 2008

2006
Mike Castle
57 . 2 % of the vote
Raised:
$1,267,040
Spent:
$1,112,716
Cash on Hand:
$1,190,228
Last Report:
December 31, 2006
Dennis Spivack (D)
38 . 8 %of vote
Raised:
$382,417
Spent:
$380,390
Cash on Hand:
$2,026
Last Report:
December 31, 2006


2004
Mike Castle
69 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$992,240
Spent:
$902,706
Cash on Hand:
$1,035,902
Last Report:
December 31, 2004
Paul Donnelly
Paul Donnelly (D)(30% of vote)
Raised:
$4,429
Spent:
$4,429
Cash on Hand:
$0
Last Report:
October 20, 2004

2002
Mike Castle
72 . 1 % of vote
Raised:
$796,752
Spent:
$760,161
Cash on Hand:
$946,368
Last Report:
December 31, 2002
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(27% of vote)
Raised:
$15,373
Spent:
$13,202
Cash on Hand:
$4,269
Last Report:
September 30, 2002

2000
Mike Castle

67 . 6 % of vote
Raised:
$675,048
Spent:
$588,911
Cash on Hand:
$909,781
Last Report:
December 31, 2000
Mike Miller
Mike Miller (D)(30 . 8 % of vote)
Raised:
$47,650
Spent:
$48,986
Cash on Hand:
$2,099
Last Report:
December 31, 2000




Election results from the Delaware Commissioner of Elections:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Here is a link to Scott Spencer’s campaign website:

http://www.spencerforthepeople.com/