Saturday, November 27, 2010

Some Areas downstate had a higher proportion of absentee voting in 2010

While Kent & Sussex County supplied less than half the votes cast in the 2010 election in Delaware, Sussex County had pockets of voters where the percentage of absentee ballots cast was much higher than upstate districts.

There are at least two possible theories at work, both of which could be correct. One is that with the population of retirees and as native Sussex Countains age, there are more people voting absentee due to it being a hardship to travel to the polls and/or stand in line. The other is that many people who are "Sussex County residents" have second homes in Sussex County and live a significant portion of the year elsewhere,but want to impact Sussex County politics since it affects property tax rates and quality of life issue they may have a strong interest in.

In the overall votes cast New Castle County has 187,043 of 307,367 or 60.9% of the total votes cast.

US Senator

-------------------------------New Castle---- Kent----- Sussex----- State

COONS CHRISTOPHER A.-----123,678--- 22,315----- 28,019---- 174,012
O'DONNELL CHRISTINE -------57,649--- 25,059----- 40,345---- 123,053
MILLER GLENN A. --------------4,459---- 1,662------ 2,080------ 8,201
RASH JAMES W.----------------- 1,257------ 404-------- 440------ 2,101
Office Total --------------------187,043--- 49,440----- 70,884---- 307,367

It was a different story with absentee balloting.


Statewide totals
Coons ********167513********* 6499********* 174012
O'Donnell****118183 **********4870 *********123053
Miller*******7974 **************227 ************8201
Rash********2037 **************64 ***********2101
Total absentee votes cast*******11,660*****************************

5408 absentee ballot were cast in New Castle County according to the Board of Elections absentee data report. 5408 is 46.4% of 11,660 which means that New Castle County supplied well over the majority of total votes cast,but it lagged in absentee ballots cast in relation to the two southern counties.

Of particular note are the 14th Rep District & 38th Rep District, both coastal districts which each had over 900 absentee ballots cast. The districts adjacent to them , the 36th & 37th rep districts, had 474 & 613 respectively. These four districts accounted for 2928 of the 11,660 cast or 25% of the absentee ballots cast statewide. More research needs to be done to establish why the absentee balloting totals are so much higher in the shore areas,but when you consider that several rep districts in New Castle County did not even break 100 and none broke 500 for the 14th & 38th to go above 900 absentee ballots cast is noteworthy.

Here are the absentee votes cast in the US Senate race by Rep District:

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some suburbs-177
4th-Wilmington & some suburbs-439
7th-Brandywine Hundred-333
8th-Southern New Castle County & Northern Kent County-232
9th-Southern New Castle County-179
10th-Brandywine Hundred-260
11th-Brandywine Hundred-278
12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-376
13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-81
15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-225
16th-New Castle-82
17th-New Castle-150
19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-145
21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Kirkwood Highway-201
22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-233
23rd-Western Newark-257
24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-84
25th-Eastern Newark-149
26th-Bear Glasgow-111

Kent County
28th-Northern Kent County-298
30th-Harrington/Houston/Farmington(overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-227
32nd-SouthDover/East Dover/Little Creek-256
33rd-Milford/Frederica (overlaps Kent & Sussex borders)-344

14th- Rehoboth/Lewes/Dewey Beach-934
36th -Milton/Milford/Lincoln-474
37th -Georgetown/Lewes-613
38th-Fenwick/Bethany/Ocean View-907

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose

Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.

Here are the current registration numbers:

County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total

New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657

In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:

US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%

US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%

State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%

Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%

I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.

Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
304 of 304 Districts Reported
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %

304 of 304 Districts Reported
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %

There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.

Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won: