Special Election for County Council President is the Democratic candidate's to lose

Democrats outnumber Republicans & Others combined in New Castle County. For the Republican candidate to win in the upcoming special election for President of New Castle County Council would require a major upset which could only take place if Democratic turnout is extremely low compared to Republican turnout OR massive defection of Democratic voters for the Republican candidate.



Here are the current registration numbers:



County -------Democrats----- Republicans-------- Others----------- Total


New Castle---- 195,440---------- 101,568-------- 92,649------------ 389,657

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd_20101101.shtml





In the four statewide races with both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, here is how each party candidate fared among New Castle County voters:

US Senate
Democrat Chris Coons-----------123,678--68.2%
Republican Christine O'Donnell-57,649---31.8%

US Representative
Democrat John Carney----------121,674-66.8%
Republican Glen Urquhart------60,404 -33.2%

State Treasurer
Democrat Chip Flowers---------107,041--58.8%
Republican Colin Bonini-------75,206 -----41.2%

Auditor
Democrat Richard Korn---------102,787 --56.9%
Republican Tom Wagner---------77,938 --43.1%


I looked at only votes cast for Ds & Rs above.

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect10/elect10_General/html/stwoff_kns.shtml

Here are how the two contested countywide races turned out:
REGISTER OF WILLS
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
CIRO POPPITI III----- 113,576------ 63 . 5 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
KATHLEEN A. SHERWIN----65337-------- 36 . 5 %


SHERIFF
304 of 304 Districts Reported
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
TRINIDAD NAVARRO -----125133------ 68 . 8 %
REPUBLICAN PARTY
WILLIAM HART--------48437--------- 26 . 6 %
INDEPENDENT PARTY OF DEL
JOSEPH O'LEARY ---- 8414---------- 4 . 6 %

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml


There is no guarantee either way . Tom Kovach pulled off an upset in the 6th Representative special election in Dec 2008 when turnout in Republican strongholds was lopsidedly high compared to areas where Democrat Mike Migliore won.The problem facing Republican is they would have to pull off this turnout advantage in several targeted areas throughout the county while also needing the Democrats to have low turnout in strong Democratic districts.
Basically, for the Republicans to win they would need to replicate the surprising upset in the 6th Rep District in Dec 2008 multiple times throughout the county all on the same day.In theory it could happen,but not likely unless the Democrats stay home or the Democratic candidate draws negative attention on a grand scale.

Here is my post following the Dec 2008 special election in which Kovach won:

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2008/12/low-turnout-in-democratic-strongholds.html