Wednesday, January 26, 2011

If Kovach Does Not Increase Support Outside His Arc of Triumph, 2012 Could be his Waterloo

In the last post I noted that six districts which form an arc which overlaps parts the 2nd ,3rd & 8th county council districts spelled the difference between victory and defeat for Republican Tom Kovach in the January 13, 2011 special election for president of New Castle County Council. Kovach beat Democrat Tim Sheldon by 4582 votes countywide,but not including 6 representative districts ( 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th) Kovach would have lost by 223 votes. Kovach won and I am not disputing that,just pointing out that an overdependence on those 6 districts could hurt him in the future.

The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.

As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.

This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.

He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.

Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.

2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%

2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%

2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%

2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%

2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%

2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%

Saturday, January 22, 2011

More Indications Relative Turnout was the key to Kovach's Win 1-13-2011

Tom Kovach won in only 12 of 26 Representative Districts in the Jan 13,2001 Special Election for New Castle County Council President, but six districts provided him with a huge enough winning margin that he was able to win countywide by more than 15 percentage points. These six districts are the 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th. Because different parts of a rep district can be in different county council districts the election districts within these representative districts overlap multiple county council districts, but these districts somewhat mirror (thought do not exactly reflect )the combined borders of the 2nd, 3rd & 8th county council districts which make an arc across the northern portion of New Castle County--Kovach's Arc of Triumph, in this election.

Here is a link to a map of the 12 county council districts where you can see the arc the 2nd, 3rd & 8th council district make:

Here are the results & turnout in Kovach's six most productive rep districts.
The following rep districts have Democratic State reps and Democratic registration edges between 500 to 3000 more registered Ds than Rs:

4th—registered voters—16,571
Kovach won 1373 to 735 for Sheldon---638 winning margin
Total turnout 2126—12.8% turnout

6th----registered voters—17,037
Kovach won 1592 to 530 for Sheldon---1062 winning margin
Total turnout 2129----12.5% turnout

7th-registered voters- 15,225
Kovach won 1536 to 693 for Sheldon---843 winning margin
Total turnout 2247------14.8% turnout

10th-registered voters- 16,697
Kovach won 1167 to 421 for Sheldon---746 winning margin
Total turnout 1591------9.5% turnout

These two districts each have a Republican State Representative and each has between 300 & 900 more Democratic than Republican registered voters:

11th-registered voters- 16,011
Kovach won 969 to 368 for Sheldon---601 winning margin
Total turnout 1347------8.4% turnout

12th-registered voters- 15,589
Kovach won 1543 to 628 for Sheldon---915 winning margin
Total turnout 2181------14.0% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
4th Rep District (Wilmington & western suburbs)margin-----638
6th Rep District (Edgemoor)-------------------margin-----1062
7th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)--------margin-----843
10th Rep District(Brandywine Hundred)--------margin----746
11th Rep District (Brandywine Hundred)-------margin----601
12th Rep District (Mt Cuba/Yorllyn)-----------margin----915
Winning margin these six--------------------------------4805

Countywide- Kovach-16,721— Sheldon-12,139 -winning margin 4582

Coming into these 6 districts Kovach is down by 223,but he walks away with the election because these districts averaged 12% turnout as a group (5% better than the county as a whole) and because they voted so lopsidedly for Kovach.

Sheldon won more Rep Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near these 6 overperforming districts Kovach had.

Here is what it looked like in the six most productive districts for Sheldon.

The following rep districts each have a Democratic State rep and Democratic registration edges between 5000 to 8000 more registered Ds than Rs:

1st Rep District—registered voters— 13,983
Sheldon won 585 to 197 for Kovach--- 388winning margin
Total turnout 785—5.6% turnout

2nd Rep District----registered voters—13,338
Sheldon won 448 to 92 for Kovach--- 356winning margin
Total turnout 544---- 4.1% turnout

3rd Rep District-registered voters-12,890
Sheldon won 268 to 68 for Kovach--- 200winning margin
Total turnout 337------2.6% turnout

5th Rep District -registered voters- 14,499
Sheldon won 448 to 263 for Kovach--- 185winning margin
Total turnout 720------5.0% turnout

13th Rep District-registered voters-13,421
Sheldon won 319 to 197 for Kovach--- 194winning margin
Total turnout 534------4.0% turnout

16th Rep District-registered voters-13,496
Sheldon won 495 to 100 for Kovach --- 395winning margin
Total turnout 599------4.4% turnout

This is the winning margin produced by these 6 districts:
1st Rep District(Wilmington & Northern suburbs)--margin----- 388
2nd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 356
3rd Rep District(Wilmington)---------------------margin----- 200
5th Rep District(Bear/Glasgow)--------------------margin---- 185
13th Rep District(Elsmere/Richardson Park)--------margin---- 194
16th Rep District (New Castle)------------------- margin---- 395
Winning margin these six------------------------------------1718

While Sheldon won by more than 4-1 in a couple districts and better than 3-1 in another, his most productive districts did not provide the turnout he needed to make the race closer.The average turnout in Sheldon's 6 most productive districts was 4.3% which was 2.7% less than the overall county turnout and ,more importantly,was 7.7% less than the turnout in Kovach's Arc of Triumph.

Jan 2011 registration totals:

Jan 13,2011 special elections results from the Delaware Election Commissioner’s website:

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Kovach won countywide on 1-13-2011,but his popularity was not across the board. He won big in a few areas.

Republican Tom Kovach won the Special Election for New Castle County Council President by 4852 votes and secured 57.5 % of the vote.He did not win big by winning all over the county,but by winning with huge margins in several locations that had higher turnout than the areas where his opponent Democrat County Councilman Tim Sheldon did well.

Sheldon won more State Representative Districts. He won 14 and Kovach won 12 Rep Districts,but the turnout was significantly lower in the districts where Sheldon won and his winning margins were nowhere near the numbers in some overperforming districts Kovach won.

Sheldon's winning margin did not break 400 votes in any of the 14 districts he won and overall turnout exceeded 900 in only one district in which Sheldon won. Kovach's winning margin exceeded 500 votes in 8 of the 12 districts in which Kovach won, including 3 in which the winning margin exceeded 840. Overall turnout in each of the 12 districts in which Kovach won was at least 900 with 4 having over 2000 total votes cast and another 7 having over 1000 total votes cast.

People did not come out to vote as much in areas where Sheldon was strong. They came out in large enough numbers in selected areas that favored Kovach which created an upset in a race when the registration edge favored the Democrats.

New Castle County
1st-Wilmington & some Northern suburbs-
Sheldon:585-197 winning margin 388

Sheldon:448-92 winning margin 356

Sheldon:268-68 winning margin 200

4th-Wilmington & some Western suburbs-
Kovach:1373-735 winning margin 638

Sheldon:448-263 winning margin 185

Kovach:1592-530 winning margin 1062

7th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach: 1536-693 winning margin 843

8th-Southern New Castle County –
Kovach: 540-461 winning margin 79

9th-Southern New Castle County-
Kovach:1061-629 winning margin of 432

10th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:1167-421 winning margin of 746

11th-Brandywine Hundred-
Kovach:969-368 winning margin of 601

12th-Mt Cuba/Yorklyn-
Kovach: 1543-628 winning margin 915

13th-Elsmere/Richardson Park-
Sheldon:319-197 winning margin 122

15th-New Castle/Red Lion/Bear-
Sheldon:369-319 winning margin 50

16th-New Castle-
Sheldon:495-100 winning margin 395

17th-New Castle-
Sheldon:463-347 winning margin 116

Sheldon:389-339 winning margin 50

19th-Mill Creek/Kirkwood Highway-
Sheldon:487-358 winning margin 129

Kovach:1097-535 winning margin 562

21st-Pike Creek /Red Mill area of Rte 2-
Kovach792-538 winning margin254

22nd-NorthStar/Linden Hill-
Kovach:1143-598 winning margin 545

23rd-Western Newark-
Sheldon:479-421 winning margin 58

24th-Rte 4 corridor east of Newark-
Sheldon:370-298 winning margin 72

25th-Eastern Newark-
Sheldon:310-302 winning margin 8

26th-Bear Glasgow-
Sheldon:164-122 winning margin 42

Kovach:486-409 winning margin 77