If Kovach Does Not Increase Support Outside His Arc of Triumph, 2012 Could be his Waterloo

In the last post I noted that six districts which form an arc which overlaps parts the 2nd ,3rd & 8th county council districts spelled the difference between victory and defeat for Republican Tom Kovach in the January 13, 2011 special election for president of New Castle County Council. Kovach beat Democrat Tim Sheldon by 4582 votes countywide,but not including 6 representative districts ( 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th,11th and 12th) Kovach would have lost by 223 votes. Kovach won and I am not disputing that,just pointing out that an overdependence on those 6 districts could hurt him in the future.

The point I will address in this post is that I don't think he can rely on winning in these 6 districts to supply enough votes to put him over the top again countywide.In the special election Kovach's six most productive districts had an average turnout of 12% to the 4.3% turnout in Tim Sheldon's six most productive districts. Based on prior general elections I don't think Kovach can count on his six most productive districts having the countywide impact they had on Jan 13th.




As the numbers below spell out the percentage of votes in countywide elections since 2002 the Jan 13,2011 special election saw the turnout in the six district forming the arc account for at least 9.3% more of the countywide turnout on Jan 13,2011 than the five general elections that have been held since the 2002 reapportionment. The difference was even greater in 2004 & 2008, the presidential election years when the percentage of countywide turnout from the arc decreased compared to the special election 11.6% and 14.3% respectively.



This is important for Kovach's future because county council president and county executuve (if he were to decide to make a run for that) appear on the ballot in presidential election years when overall turnout is higher which blunts the impact of districts that are already fairly saturated with dependable voters and have relatively fewer of the occasional presidential year voters come out.

He also won south of the C&D canal in both the 8th & 9th rep districts which could be helpful in the future since this is among the fastest growing portions of the county. The area of Stanton-Pike Creek-North Star (the 20, 21st & 22nd rep districts) gave him a combined victory margin of over 1300 and these areas could be strong areas in 2012 for him since they have reliably sent Republican to the Delaware House of Representatives for many years.

Coming off a decisive victory it would be premature to say his chances are limited in 2012,but if his base does not expand beyond these areas he could face an uphill fight when the ballot is full.



2011 special election -----------Votes cast--- countywide --% of county
4th Rep District------------------ 2126------ 29,098
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------------- 2129----- 29,098
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District---------- ------- 2247-------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------------- 1591 -------29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District--------------- 1347------- 29,098
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District--------------- 2181------- 29,098
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc ---11,621------ 29,098----- 39.9%


2010 general election--------- Votes cast-- countywide-- % county
4th Rep District----------------- 8,333---- 189,826
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------- ------- 8,374------ 189,826
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District--------------- 8,915------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District------------- 8,130------ 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------------- 8,771------- 189,826
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District------------ 8,878------- 189,826
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC arc--51,401------ 189,826------ 27.1%

2008 general election------ Votes cast--- countywide -% of county
4th Rep District -------------10,609------ 258,571
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District------------- 11,210------ 258,571
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District -------------11,211------ 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District---------- 10,702--- --- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District---------- 11,331------- 258,571
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ---------11,215------- 258,571
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2nd CC,3rdCC & 8th CC ar-66,278------ 258,571----- 25.6%

2006 general election----- Votes ---countywide ---% of county
4th Rep District--------- 7,558---------161,932
(Wilmington & Western suburbs)
6th Rep District ---------7,598-------- 161,932
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District----------8,365-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District--------7,398-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District------- 8,186-------- 161,932
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District -------8,225------- 161,932
(Mt Cuba /Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCC arc- 47,330--- 161,932------ 29.2%

2004 general election---Votes----countywide-----% of county
4th Rep District-------- 10,558------233,091
(Wilmington& Western suburbs)
6th Rep District -------10,862------ 233,091
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------11,282----- 233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------10,509- ----233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District ------11,435------233,091
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------11,237------ 233,091
(Mt Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC &8thCCarc- 65,883---233,091-----28.3%

2002 general election -Votes cast- countywide-- % of county cast
4th Rep District---------7,266------146,907
(Wilmington West)
6th Rep District---------6,963----- 146,907
(Edgemoor)
7th Rep District --------8,350------146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
10th Rep District ------6,731----- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
11th Rep District-------7,921---- 146,907
(Brandywine Hundred)
12th Rep District ------7,792----- 146,907
(Mt. Cuba/Yorklyn)
2ndCC,3rdCC& 8thCCarc-45,023- 146,907 -----30.6%