Wednesday, September 12, 2012

It may not have been the toughest prediction,but I got the 23rd turnout pretty close

In the 23rd Rep District  3 way primary to succeed retiring State Rep Terry Schooley I made a prediction of where the majority of votes would come from: the 2nd Election District, the 3rd District, the 4th Election District and the 5th Election District and offered a voting history that explained why I thought so. The numbers seemed to indicate that these four EDs would supply at least 60% of the 23rd Rep District's overall vote.
Here is what the actual turnout was:

Actual Vote Turnout on 9-11-2012

1st       4.2% =   59 total votes cast

2nd      13.1%=  184 total votes cast

3rd       37.6%=  528  total votes cast
(the 3rd & 4th EDs both vote at the same polling place)

5th      7.7 %=    108total votes cast

6th      12.9 %= 181total votes cast

7th       6.5%=    91 total votes cast

8th      14.6 %=  205total votes cast

9th      3.5 %=   49 total votes cast

total votes votes cast= 1405
The 2nd,3rd, 4th & 5th had 820 votes cast for 58.4%. It may not have been the most difficult predeiction of the Delaware Democratic primary, I can live with a prediction within 1.6% of the actual result.

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