Monday, March 23, 2009

Democrats Could take US Rep seat if they hold Democratic base and break even with Others

The point of the last two posts was that if Democrats ,who have such a large registration advantage , were to get a decisive majority of Democrats who vote in the US House race they could win by winning that large majority of their own party’s voters and by breaking even among Others (unaffiliated voters and third party voters). 25,000 to 70,000 more Democrats than Republicans have usually voted in recent elections,depending on whether it is a presidential or nonpresidential year.

In 2010, a nonpresidential year the difference will be closer to 25,000 –30,000 than 2008’s 71,000 plus advantage,but that is still sizable.
Here is what the voter difference by registration has looked like the last statewide few elections:
2002 Democrats 224,130 registered & 101,080 Dems voted (45%)
2002 Republicans 175,325 registered & 87,695 Reps voted (50%)
2002 13,385 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2004-Democrats 240,999 registered & 165,185 Dems voted (69%)
2004-Republicans 181,510 registered & 127,056 Reps voted (70%)
2004-38,129 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2006- Democrats-246,149 registered & 116,955 Dems voted (48%)
2006-Republicans-178,655 registered & 90,176 Reps voted (50%)
2006-26,779 more Democrats than Republicans voted

2008-Democrats 279,916 registered & 199,095 Dems voted (71%)
2008-Republicans 181,858 registered & 127,346 Reps voted (70%)
2008-71,749 more Democrats than Republicans voted

Since 1992 this has not taken place in the Congressional race,but statewide Democrats have done it in other races so it is possible.

For election results:
For breakdown of voters by registration the AGP (Age Group & Party) report was used which is a separate report produced by the Election Department on the same website

No comments: