Saturday, January 23, 2010

Some parameters of possible voter turnout in the 2010 statewide Democratic primary Delaware

The numbers below give a rough idea of what the number of voters will be at various percentages of the number of registered Democrats as of 1-1-2010. Since no race appears (at this stage in the campaign season) to be drawing anywhere near the voter attention of the 2008 Governor primary or the 2008 presidential primary, I have not done the numbers beyond 25%.

I assume the actual turnout is likely to be between 7-10%, unless the current statewide campaigns with potential Democratic primaries generate a higher public profile.

Turnout is not stable across legislative district lines. 13,734 (8.39% turnout) voted across New Castle County in 2006, the year I think makes the best comparison of the least four election cycles. 2004 & 2008 had more offices up, particularly in New Castle County which saw countywide primaries in each of those years for County Executive and County Council President. 2002 was the first year after reapportionment which created the possibility of more local primaries.

Of the 13, 734 voters who turned out in New Castle , only 12,405 voted in the Congressional primary which confirms that many voters are brought out by the local races. New Castle County represented 12,405 of the 15,768 Democrats who voted in the Congressional race or 78.7% of the turnout.

There are 27 state representative districts in New Castle County. None of those without a local state rep district had voter turnout higher than 8.2% in 2006. None of the 8 representative districts that had a state rep primary had turnout lower than 10% .Two districts , the 1st & 4th rep districts which each had a primary and also shared the overlapping primary of the 1st state senate district, each had turnout over 20% and were the only districts in New Castle County to have turnout above 15%. These districts combined for a total turnout of 3406 (1,890 in the 1st Rep Dist and 1,516 in the 4th Rep Dist or 24.8% of total turnout of Democrats countywide.

These numbers don't tell exactly what total turnout will be or exactly where it will come from,but I am guessing at the 7-10% turnout range with a disproportionate percentage coming from the rep districts where there is a local primary.

Democratic registration as of 1-1-2010:
8% turnout of 287,821=23,056 voters
10% turnout of 287,821=28,782 voters
15% turnout of 287,821=43,173 voters
20% turnout of 287,821=57,564 voters
25% turnout of 287,821=71955 voters


US Rep------64,997


Ins Comm---66,062



Presidential primary--94,673



US Rep----15,000



Ins Comm-31,799



Presidential primary----33,291



US Rep---17,223


Election tunrout reults are the State Election Commisioner's website:

and the New Castle County Board of Elections website:

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