Past performance is no guarantee of future results,but I thought it might be interesting to review how Mike Protack ,who has run statewide in Republican primaries three times, has performed as a vote getter in the third county council district where he is running to fill the seat being vacated by the retirement of Bill Tansey.
Getting exact numbers is difficult, if not impossible, due to the merging of polling places during primaries. Polling places may be merged due to builidng availability, parking issues on primary day when some regular polling sites which might be closed on general election day are open on primary election creating more demand for parking, staffing issues for an election with a much lower turnout and other issues as determined by the Board of Elections.
There are 29 election districts in the 3rd county council district and in the four primaries since the 2002 redistricting this merging has not created 29 distinct election districts for election result purposes.
Below are the number of districts within the current 3rd district reporting results on the New Castle County Board of Election website:
20 in 2008
20 in 2006
21 in 2004
24 in 2002
(In 2002 what is now the 3rd district comprised roughly half of what was then the third district which was split in 2004 when county council expanded to 12 districts.The other half of the old district 3 is now district 9)
This means election districts were merged and some could possibly have merged with adjacent EDs that might not be in the third district which would not have been a concern for the elections department ,if there was no local primary. This means the results I quote will be a thumbnail sketch-not an exact tally of how Mike Protack did votewise.
In 2004 approximately 2240 votes were cast in a three way Republican gubernatorial primary (won statewide by Bill Lee)in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 445 for 19%.
In 2006 approximately 1,761 votes were cast in a three way Republican primary for U.S. Senate primary (won statewide by Jan Ting)in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 713 votes for 40%
In 2008 approximately 2644 votes were cast in the two way Republican gubernatorial primary (won statewide by Bill Lee) in the third county council district and Mike Protack got 626 for 23%.
In 2006 an off-year election with a lower turnout, Protack got significantly more votes and a much higher percentage. If he benefits from the lower turnout of an off-year election, his race this year could be his best shot at success.
In 2002 this half of the old third county council district supplied approximately 2,397 votes in the Bill Tansey-Rick Abbott primary for county council, but that primary took place the year after redistricting and was so hotly contested that Tansey won it by only 9 votes as Abbott, the incumbent at the time, maintained a higher media profile than either of the candidates currently running and then County Executive Tom Gordon mobilized resources behind Tansey.
I would assume the turnout may be lower in 2010 than 2002. It will be interesting to see if the turnout is lower and if Protack benefits from whatever the turnout is.