Thursday, December 2, 2010

14th and 38th Rep Districts have twice the percentage of absentee voters as state average for last 3 elections

I was asked if the higher proportion of absentee ballots cast in the 14th & 38th Representative Districts in 2010 was part of an ongoing pattern and the answer is yes. Each of these districts had a percentage of absentee voters to machine voters that was twice the statewide average for each of the last 3 elections (2006, 2008 & 2010). Unfortunately, prior to 2006 the delaware Elections Commissioner's website shows only total votes cast and does not break down votes cast between machine and absentee votes.
Here are the numbers:

2010-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 307,367 votes cast, 11,660 were absentee votes or
3.8% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of of 12,005 votes cast, 934 were absentee votes or
7.8% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 11,583 votes cast, 907 were absentee votes or
7.8 % of the were absentee

2008-U S Senate race
Statewide-- out of 398,134votes cast, 21,039 were absentee votes or
5.3 % of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 14,024 votes cast, 1,624 were absentee votes or
11.6% of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 13,433 votes cast, 1,504 were absentee votes or
11.2% of the were absentee


2006-U S Representative race
Statewide-- out of 251,694 votes cast, 8,150 were absentee votes or
3.2% of votes were absentee
In the 14th Rep District--out of 9,512 votes cast, 585 were absentee votes or
6.2 % of votes were absentee
In the 38th Rep District-out of 9,380 votes cast,638 were absentee votes
6.8% of the were absentee

It does not appear to be related to be a concerted partisan effort in either direction. Republican Christine O'Donnell lost in the 14th to Joe Biden in 2008 and Chris Coons in 2010.She won in the 38th in 2010 over Coons, while losing to Biden by 480 votes in 2008. Republican Mike Castle beat Dennis Spivack in each of the districts in 2006.

The Castle -Spivack race was used for 2006 because factoring in absentee write-in votes in the US Senate race in which O'Donnell got over 11,000 write-in votes looked like a cumbersome process due to the way the website recorded write-in votes.


http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

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