Friday, September 12, 2008

6th Senate Recap, response to comment question

I would assume the home election district for each of the candidates in the 6th state senate primary would see some spike in turnout,since both have been active in their local communities for years. I also felt what happened in the 23rd Rep Dist in Newark west of Rte 896 (College Ave) was central to victory since 5,425 of the 8,164 registered Democrats in the 6th Senate District live in the 23rd.
Within the 23rd there were four polling places which I felt would be pivotal due to higher turnout relative to other election districts.All of the districts mentioned in the 23rd Rep District are in the 6th senate district and they account for 3488 of the 8,164 registered Democrats in that senate district . (as of 7-1-2008).
Downes Elementary and First Presbyterian alone account for 2345 Democrats or 29% of the potential primary voters in that state senate district.

Home Election District 6th State Senate race
Terranova 3rd ED of the 22nd RD (North Star Elementary School)

McKenzie 4th of the 23rd(Downes Elementary School)

In the 23rd I would post people in the following order:
Downes (3rd-23rd & 4th-23rd-1141 registered Dems)(253 Dems voted in 2004 Primary)
First Presbyterian (2nd-23rd & 5th-23rd-1204 Dems)(186 Dems voted in 2004 primary)
WestPark Elementary(7th-23rd-645 registered Dems)(102 Dems voted in 2004 primary)
George Wilson Community Center (9th-23rd-498 registered Dems)(101 voted in 2004)

Here is how these election districts voted on 9-9-08:
North Star School3rd of the 22nd Terranova 161 McKenzie 66
First Presbyterian 2nd & 5th Eds of the 23rd Terranova 199 McKenzie 204
Downes 3rd & 4th Eds of the 23rd Terranova 195 McKenzie 329
West Park School 7th ED of the 23rd Terranova 65 McKenzie 134
George Wilson 9th ED of the 23rd Terranova 111 McKenzie 117

McKenzie won the district overall by 65,but won the EDs in the 23rd by 204 (969-765), meaning he lost the area outside the 23rd by 139 votes.

1734 of the 2629 votes cast on Sept 9, 2008 came out of the 23rd , but McKenzie will need more even distribution of votes to win in the general election against Republican incumbent, Liane Sorenson. In 2002, Representative Rick DiLiberto attempted to unseat Sorenson . He lost the Election Districts in the 23rd Rep District by only 72 votes, but lost 5611-4600, meaning he lost the rest of the district by over 900 votes.
Unless McKenzie runs extremely well in the 23rd District and loses by a closer margin than DiLiberto in the remainder of the senate district, I don’t think he has cause for optimism for victory.
Since he got a later start and was outspent significantly (Terranova raised over $50,000. McKenzie raised about $4000 and loaned his campaign another $7000), I think he must have made up some lost ground through local name recognition from his involvement on the Christina School Board and other local activities.
In Newark Terranova may had more signs,but I have heard McKenzie did more direct voter contact walking door-to-door in neighborhoods. To have a decent shot in November I think McKenzie will need to expand that voter contact into the Hockessin-North Star portion of the district and persuade a lot of Independent voters to back him in this district where Democrats hold a small registration edge over Republicans (8,267 to 7,580) ,but where Independents could easily be the deciding factor since there are over 5000 of them.

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