I don't know who will win in the 19th special election,but here's is where a majority of the votes might come from ,if history repeats itself

Special elections are all about turnout and usual patterns can be disrupted.Over the course of the last four election cycles (2002, 2004 ,2006 & 2008) since the current boundaries of the 19th State Senate District were established, a majority of the votes have come from less than a majority of the election districts. We won't know until the evening of August 3,2009 whether this pattern continues ,but below are where the majority of votes have come from in the 19th State Senate District since 2002 .

The seven election districts below (out of a total of 16 election districts) have produced between 67% and 69% of the districts votes cast in each of the elections since 2002.
These districts comprise 18,255 voters out of the 25829 registered in the 19th State Senate District. These districts make up 70.7% of the registered voters.


Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 1074 voted-- 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,927 voted---10.3% of total district turnout
2006***982 voted—10.6% of total district turnout
2008***1701 voted—11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 2821---10.9% of district total


BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 1371voted—13.6% of total district turnout
2004***2,193 voted---14.5% of total district turnout
2006***1419 voted—15.3% of total district turnout
2008***3,109 voted—16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total


DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 813voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2004***1,300 voted---8.6% of total district turnout
2006***752 voted—8.1% of total district turnout
2008***1,582 voted—8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total



36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 825voted—8.2% of total district turnout
2004***1,318 voted---8.7% of total district turnout
2006***784 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,612 voted—8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total


MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 803voted—8.0% of total district turnout
2004***1,169 voted---7.7% of total district turnout
2006***779 voted—8.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,630 voted—8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total

37th RD

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 1174voted—11.7% of total district turnout
2004***1,596 voted---10.5% of total district turnout
2006***1052voted—11.3% of total district turnout
2008***1,838 voted—9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total



39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39

2002*** 687voted—6.8% of total district turnout
2004***1,038 voted---6.8% of total district turnout
2006***591voted—6.4% of total district turnout
2008***1,134 voted—6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total

Here are the combined numbers for these seven election districts since 2002:
2002*** 6747voted—67.1% of total district turnout of 10,052
2004***10,315voted---68.0% of total district turnout of 15,161
2006***6359voted—68.4% of total district turnout of 9294
2008***12,832voted—68.8% of total district turnout of 18,656
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 –18,255---70.7% of district total




Total Voter Registration for the 19th State Senate District as of 07-01-2009
25,829

from the Delaware Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601sd.shtml


Total turnout 19th State Senate District
2002*****10,052
2004*****15,161
2006*****9294
2008*****18,656


In 2008 & 2004 there was no contest for the 19th State Senate seat so the numbers used were voter turnout numbers from the State Election Commissioner’s website AGP (Age,Group Party) report.2008http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2008.html2004

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/AGP04/AGP04Gen.PDF

The results for the 19th State Senate race in 2002 & 2006 come from the State Election Commissioner’s election archive2006
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml

2002
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml