Thursday, July 30, 2009

One reason some politicians hang out at senior centers: the over 50 crowd can produce a majority of votes without having a majority of the voters

The AARP will be happy to see that in the 19th Senate District the over 50 year old voters cast over 50% of the votes with less than a majority of the registered voters in 2002 and 2006. For candidates this is important because they can maximize their time by contacting registered voters who are more likely to actually vote.

I have looked at the 2002 and 2006 elections because a lot of the people who vote in presidential year elections drop off in off-year elections and it is doubtful they would vote in the special election 8-3-2009, if they would not vote in 2002 and 2006 when the 19th senate seat and multiple statewide offices were on the ballot. The extra voters in 2004 and 2008 are less likely voters in a special election. They are the political equivalent of people who follow their hometown sports team,but only during playoff time.

The 50 and over group had a 13plus greater turnout percentage than the overall voting population in each of these elections.

Here are what the numbers tell us of how the over 50 group outperforms as a voting group:
19th State Senate District
Total registered --21,286
Total votes cast --10,346---overall turnout 48.6%

Voters Age 50-59--registered-3666*********17.2% of registered voters
Voters age 50-59-- votes cast-2162*********20.9 % of total votes cast
Group turnout-59.0%

Voters age 60-65--registered-1444**********6.8% of registered voters
Voters age 60-65 -votes cast-965************9.3 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--66.8%

Voters 65 &over registered-4003***********18.8% of registered voters
Voters 65 &over votes cast-2631************25.4 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--65.7%

Voter50 & over registered--9113********* 42.8% of registered voters
50 and overvotes cast--5758*************55.6 % of votes cast
Voters 50 and over-group turnout-63.2%

Total registered --23,432
Total votes cast --11,245*****************overall turnout--48.0%

Voters age 50-59 registered--4385****************18.7% of registered voters
Voters 50-59 votes cast---2552******************22.7 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--58.2%

Voters 60-65 registered--1936*********************8.3% of registered voters
Voters 60-65 votes cast-1245********************11.1 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--64.3%

Voters 65 & over registered--4738****************20.2% of registered voters
Voters 65 & over votes cast--3014****************26.8 % of total votes cast
Group Turnout--63.6%

Voters50 and over registered--11,059***********47.2% of registered voters
Voters50 and over votes cast--6811*************60.6 % of total votes cast
Voters 50 and over- group Turnout 61.6%

The numbers used are from the 2002 AGP report and 2006 AGP report on the State Election Commissioner's website:

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