Influence of Wilmington Rep Districts in the 2010 Democratic Statewide primary may depend on low turnout statewide and local primaries

Four state representative districts have Democratic legislators who reside in the City of Wilmington. They are rep districts 1-4. A substantial portion of each of these districts is within the city borders. For the purposes of this discussion they will be viewed as Wilmington districts with the realization that they may contain election districts outside the city limits.



The 13th and 16th representative districts have small portions of the city, an election district each.They will not be considered here ,since the impact is so small.In the 2008 city council president's race 9,601 votes were cast citywide. Only 280 of these votes were in the 13th & 16th which are represented by suburban residents and whose districts are geographically primarily suburban districts.



Here is the breakdown of the current Democratic registration of rep districts 1-4 & the state:

1st Rep district --10,000 (3.5% of statewide Democrats)

2nd Rep Distritct-9,251 (3.2% of statewide Democrats)

3rd Rep District--8,959 (3.1% of statewide Democrats)

4th Rep District--7,728 (2.7% of statewide Democrats)

1st-4th RepDists--35,938 (12.6% of statewide Democrats)

Statewide-------286,282



http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

Below is the impact of the city districts on some statewide Democratic primaries since the current district boundaries came into existence in 2002. I intentionally did not choose the 2008 primary for Governor between Jack Markell & John Carney because that drew several thousand people who did not vote in the Insurance Commissioner's race or US Rep race. These voters are not as likely to vote in an off-year election without a marquee matchup (two opponents each of whom has a substantial treasury and/or long standing name recognition in a major race). I liken these voters to people who follow baseball only during the World Series or football only during the Superbowl.

2008 Insurance Commissioner's Race-66,062 votes cast statewide
1st Rep District--3,249 (4.9% of votes cast)
2ndRep District-2,149 (3.3% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,725 (2.6% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-2,451 (3.7% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-9,574 (14.5% of votes cast)

2006 US Representative Race-15,768
1st Rep District-1,537 (9.7% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-773 (4.9% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-869 (5.5% of votes cast
4th Rep District-1344 (8.5% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4523 (28.6% of votes cast)


2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-31,799
1st Rep District-2,232 (7.0% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,638 (5.2% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,389 (4.4% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-1,667 (5.2% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-6926 (21.8% of votes cast)



2002 US Representative Race-17,223
1st Rep District-1,735 (10.1% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,292 (7.5% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-773 (4.5% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-848 (4.9 % of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4638 (27.0% of votes cast)

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

When statewide turnout was higher in 2004 & 2008, the city amounted to less of a percentage of the statewide total. When turnout was less in 2002 & 2006 the city's impact was several percentage points higher.

One reason is that city residents are much more used to voting in primaries and that in some districts the Democratic primary is, in effect , the election because the Democratic registration edge over the Republican is so overwhelming (more than 7-1 in 1st , 2nd & 3rd Rep Districts) , that in the general election the Democratic candidate runs unopposed or against minimal opposition.

The existence of local primaries may also drive up particpation in the statewide primaries in the city.Some people may come out to vote in the local primary and vote for the statewide races as well, is one possibility.

In 2006 there were 3 Democratic State Rep primaries not in the city of Wilmington, but all four state rep districts represented by a city resident had a primary. In each of the state rep primaries more people voted than in the US Rep primary: 1795 in the 1st, 815 in the 2nd, 1,013 in the 3rd and 1486 in the 4th.

In 2002 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Rep Districts each had a primary for state rep and each of these also had more votes cast than in the US Rep race. In the 4th Rep District in 2002 there was no local state rep primary and the turnout of 848 was significantly less than the 1344 who voted in the US Rep race in 2006 when there was hotly contested 3 way state rep race that included 2 sitting city council members, Gerald Brady ,who won, and Loretta Walsh.

It is early to gauge what turnout will be in 2010,but I would assume it would be closer to the 2002 & 2006 numbers than the 2004 & 2008 numbers. Even with multiple statewide primaries, it will be an off-year election. Unless there is a change in the makeup of the US Rep race or US Senate race which creates a situation in which two high profile ( in terms of cash, organization and/or name recognition) Democratic candidates go head-to-head, I don't expect turnout to be especially high statewide. This could mean the Wilmington districts could have an impact way beyond the 12.6% they represent of registered Democrats.

A campaign finance comparison in the GOP Senate race

Most candidates would prefer Mike Castle's decades of wins (& name recognition) and a six figure bankroll to Christine O'Donnell's 2 prior losses and $24,000 in debt with less than $2500 on hand. I don't know if Christine O'Donnell considers herself an underdog,but the campaign finance reports reflect that possibility.

Looking at the numbers for cash raised, I was surprised to see that what is available as documented on the OpenSecrets website has Castle only out fund-raising O’Donnell a little better than 2-1 . This appears to be for the period since the 2008 election.

The cash on hand line of the raised and spent report below shows the financial disadvantage O’Donnell faces. Castle had $852,689 on hand when last reported ( the date is not supplied on OpenSecrets.Org,but the figures appear to match the 9-30-2009 filing Castle’s campaign did with the FEC) and O’Donnell had $2,462 on hand as of 3-31-2009. Possibly as telling for campaign stability is that Castle has zero debt and O’Donnell’s most recent report showed $24,298 in debt.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN 2010:
Select an election cycle:
Race All Candidates AmountRaised
Senate Michael N. Castle (R) $257,619
Christine O'Donnell (R) $123,686


http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=DE


Total Raised and Spent
Michael N. Castle (R)
Raised: $257,619
Spent: $267,674
Cash on Hand: $852,689
Last Report: Not available

PAC contributions $234,250 (91%)
Individual contributions $18,554 (7%)
Candidate self-financing $0 (0%)
Other $4,815 (2%)

Christine O'Donnell (R)
Raised: $123,686
Spent: $120,964
Cash on Hand: $2,462
Last Report: March 31, 2009

PAC contributions $1,750 (1%)
Individual contributions $108,015 (87%)
Candidate self-financing $716 (1%)
Other $13,205 (11%)

NOTE: All the numbers on this page are for the 2009 - 2010 House election cycle and based on Federal Election Commission data available electronically on Tuesday, November 10, 2009.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=DES2&cycle=2010



For 6-30-2009 and 9-30-2009 the FEC report indicates failure to file for O’Donnell.

The 3-31-2009 quarterly report filed 4/15/2009 also showed O’Donnell’s campaign to be over $24,000 in debt. While debt can sometimes reflect money a candidate had loaned his/her campaign in this case much of it appears to be vendors . Some of these examples are $4,018 to Airport Business Center for rent, $3,275 to Get Kinetic for a video shoot and $5,275.91 Koch & Hoos ,LLC for accounting services. Logistically, I would think this kind of debt is more problematic than candidate loans, since it is possible these vendors may withhold future service or the outstanding debt may make it more difficult to transact business with other vendors who may have concerns about repayment.

Here is the link to the 3-31-2009 report:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00449595


The loans are reported on pages 23-27 of a 30 pages PDF.


Here is the link to the report for Castle's House campaign for the period ending 9-30-2009. The only filing for his Senate campaign is the filing of candidacy in Oct 2009

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00254938



Here is the link to the FEC homepage,if you want to research deeper:

http://www.fec.gov/

I was unable to locate O'Donnell's 2010 campaign website and attempts to access her 2008 website took me to Yahoo search.


Here is Castle's campaign website:

http://www.castlecampaign.org/

History may have been kinder to Jefferson & Jackson than Delaware was

The Delaware State Democratic Committee is proud to have Bill Clinton as their speaker at the annual Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner on Nov 10th. Their website indicates the event is sold out:

http://www.deldems.org/


I thought this might be a time to research how Delaware treated Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson when they were on the ballot. It looks like Delaware was a disappointment to both of them

Thomas Jefferson was elected president twice and vice-president once. He was on the presidential ballot four times:
1792 ,1796,1800 and 1804. Over those four elections he received no electoral votes from Delaware . In 1800 the electoral college balloting ended in a tie between Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
The decision of who would be president was settled in the US House of Representatives. There were 16 states at the time. Jefferson won the votes of 10 states, Burr won four states and two states abstained. Delaware was one of the abstaining states.


http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1789_1821.html#1804



Andrew Jackson was on the presidential ballot in 1824,1828 and 1832.He won the presidency in 1828 and 1832 after losing to John Quincy Adams in 1924. He did not receive any electoral votes during any of these elections.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1821_1837.html#1824



These are not the only presidents of note to be slighted by Delaware's electors.
Abraham Lincoln did not get any Delaware electoral votes in either of his presidential victories in 1860 or 1865.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1853_1869.html#1860

At least when it comes to the 1800s we can not say "so went Delaware, so went the nation".

For more on the presidential election of 1800 see:
"Adams Vs. Jefferson, The Tumultuos Election of 1800" by John Ferling

A Pattern That May Impact the Delaware House of Representatives in 2010,maybe not

A lot has been written about how in the off year election after a newly elected president has taken office that president's party often loses seats in Congress. Does it apply to the Delaware House of Representatives as well? A review of the elections since 1964 would say it might .


It happened in 1966 -2 years after Democrat Lyndon Johnson became President as Democrats lost 18 seats in the House:

1964 30 Democrats, 5 Republicans
1966 12 Democrats, 23 Republicans



It happened in 1970 -2 years after Republican Richard Nixon won the presidency as Republicans lost 3 seats in the House:

1968 13 Democrats, 26 Republicans

1970 16 Democrats, 23Republicans

[In November 1974 ,two months after Nixon resigned, the Democrats took a 25-16 majority in the Delaware House of Representatives, for a turnaround of 12 seats within 3 election cycles.]


It happended in 1978 -2 years after Democrat Jimmy Carter won the presidency as Democrats lost 5 seats in the House:

1976 26 Democrats, 15 Republicans

1978 21 Democrats, 20 Republicans



It happened in 1982 -2 years after Republican Ronald Reagan beat Carter as Republicans lost 9 seats in the House:

1980 16 Democrats, 25Republicans

1982 25Democrats, 16Republicans

It did not happen in 1990- 2 years after Republican George HW Bush was elected president and the Republicans gained an additional seat in the State House

1988 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1990 17 Democrats, 24 Republicans


It happened in 1994 -2 years after Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency as Democrats lost 4 seats in the House:

1992 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1994 14 Democrats, 27 Republicans





In 2002, 2 years after George W Bush was elected president, it did not happen, as Republicans picked up an additional 3 seats in the House.

I think this may have had less to do with the Bush presidency than the fact Republican party held a majority in the Delaware House of Representatives and was able to write the district lines during reapportionment which took place between the 2000 and 2002 elections. Four Democrat incumbents (Dave Brady, Rich DiLiberto ,Shirley Price and John Schroeder) found themselves with district lines that made re-election an impossibility in 2002.

2000 15 Democrats, 26 Republicans

2002 12 Democrats, 29 Republicans

Admittedly, issues other than who is currently in the White House affect who is elected as a State Representative in the Delaware House of Representatives, but I found it interesting that this pattern holds up in 5 of the last 7 presidencies. I don't know if it possible to establish cause and effect in this case or whether this pattern is likely to continue.



2000 & 2002 results are from the Elections Archive section of the State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml


Prior results are from Table 3, pp 470-488 from Only in Delaware, Celia Cohen, who references the Delaware State Election Commissioner's Office. I assumed she used paper sources at the Dover office.
Unfortunately, on the Commissioner's website elections from 1954-1968 are not currently available.

Two local races seem to have made an impact on statewide turnout in the 2006 GOP primary and one appears not to have impacted statewide turnout

Statewide Republican turnout was 8% in the 2006 US Senate primary,but two areas with higher turnout each had a state representative district race to fill a vacancy created by the retiring of an incumbent Republican state representative. These two races appeared to have impacted turnout in the US Senate race since the turnout in the 20th & 33rd districts for the US Senate primary was 856 and 944, respectively. No other district of the remaining 39 districts had a voter turnout higher than 695.

In the 20th Rep District in New Castle County between Newark and Wilmington , 976 people voted in the Representative primary in which Nick Manolakos beat Brian Moore 520 to 356. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5,885 registered Republicans in the 20th,making turnout for that race 16.6% ,over twice the statewide turnout.

Even more telling is that only 856 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 120 fewer than the local race, implying the local race is what brought people out to vote.The 20th Rep District made up only 3.3% of the 178,366 Registered Repubicans ,but made up 6.0 % of the 14,386 Republicans who voted in the US Senate primary.


In the 33rd Rep District 967 people voted in the Representative primary in which Ulysses S Grant beat Harold Peterman 496 to 471. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5080 registered Republicans in the 33rd Rep District which has election districts in both Kent & Sussex Counties. Turnout in this state rep race was 19.0%, almost 2 and a half times the statewide average.

944 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 23 fewer than voted in the State Rep primary. The 33rd Rep District made up 2.8% of the Registered Republicans statewide, but made up 6.6% of the Republicans who voted in the US Senate Primary.

An interesting contrast is the only other Republican state legislative primary in 2006 which took place in the 14th State Senate District in which John Feroce beat Barbara Allsopp 354-323. This district is near the C&D canal and has election districts in New Castle and Kent Counties.They both were on the November ballot with Feroce as the Republican nominee and Allsopp as the Independent Party of Delaware nominee . Incumbent Democratic State Senator James Vaughn defeated both of them with 59.1% of the vote in the general election.

The Sept 2006 primary only got 677 of the state senate district’s 9557 registered Republicans out to vote or 7.1% turnout, less than the statewide average despite there being both the US Senate race and the state senate race.

The numbers tell what happened,but the question is why. The 20th & 33rd had been represented by a Republican representative prior to 2006.The 20th would continue to be represented by a Republican after Manolakos’ victory over Democrat Richard Korn in November 2006. In the 33rd Grant lost to Democrat Bob Walls,but only by 81 votes-less than a percentage point. I think the Republicans in September in these two districts were more motivated to come out because there was a greater likelihood of success in November.

In the 14th State senate District, they faced a long-time Democrat incumbent and a Democrat registration advantage of 13,527 to 9,557. The Republicans may have had less of a vested interest in voting in the September primary because they had less faith in the outcome in November General election and with good reason.



Registration figures for Sept 2006

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2006/09_06_rep.shtml

Election results for Sept 2006

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary_edrd.shtml

2006 US Senate Republican Primary results by Representative District-Some Context for the last post and the next post

District----Total---O'Donnell---Protack---Ting
1st----------128 -----36---------46--------46
2nd----------52-------19---------22--------11
3rd----------42-------17----------11--------14
4th----------558------89---------115-------354
5th----------91-------22----------42-------27
6th----------456-----83---------183-------190
7th----------608-----90---------218-------300
8th----------356-----59---------162-------133
9th----------338-----52---------163-------122
10th---------489-----81---------191-------217
11th---------672-----106--------233-------333
12th---------660-----71---------241-------348
13th---------149-----43---------39---------67
14th---------686------86---------219-------381
15th---------202-----36---------103--------63
16th---------49------12---------27---------10
17th---------188-----38---------67---------83
18th---------167-----48---------92---------27
19th---------248-----54---------128--------66
20th---------856-----163--------369--------324(also had a State Rep Primary)
21st---------363-----50---------169-------144
22nd---------480-----71---------221-------188
23rd---------297-----48---------115-------134
24th---------123-----36----------46--------41
25th---------178-----38----------61--------79
26th---------123-----32----------52--------39
27th---------183-----44----------85--------54
28th---------235-----48---------107-------80
29th---------320-----55---------142-------123
30th---------404-----104--------201-------99
31st---------262------39---------114-------109
32nd---------246-----34---------117--------95
33rd---------944-----232--------426--------286(also had State Rep primary)
34th---------410 -----61---------191--------158
35th---------301-----128---------137-------119
36th---------367-----46----------165-------156
37th---------469-----39----------150-------280
38th---------695-----109---------268------318
39th---------336-----47----------99--------190
40th---------220-----50----------78--------92
41st---------435------72---------153-------210
Total-----14,386-----2,505-------5,771-----6,110

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary/elect06_edrd.shtml

A Look at the 2006 GOP US Senate Primary in Delaware

My original idea was to look at how each of the three Republican US Senate candidates did by Representative District in 2006. My assumption was if Christine O'Donnell stays in the Senate primary in 2010 and squares off against Mike Castle, her only chance is to win decisively in districts where she did well against Jan Ting,who was the organization endorsed candidate in 2006, and to lose close to Castle in districts she lost to Ting.Some on the right may feel she would get the lion's share of Mike Protack's votes and that is possible,but it is also possible several hundred of Protack's voters may not have even voted if he were not on the ballot.

One theory I have read is she would pull strongly from downstate Republicans on the assumption that they may be more conservative than their counterparts in New Castle County. After looking at the numbers I am wondering if downstate Republicans as a group are not being misrepresented by a vocal conservative minority.

Jan Ting got more votes than Protack and O'Donnell combined (190 for Ting and 146 for his two opponents)in the 39th District which encompasses Seaford and Blades in Western Sussex County. In the 41st District which includes Millsboro, Gumboro and Frankford in Southern Sussex County, Ting received 210 votes while Protack and O'Donnell combined received 223. In the 37th which includes Georgetown and Lewes, Ting received 280 votes and his opponents combined total was 189.

While Ting lost several districts to Protack in Kent and Sussex, O'Donnell did not win any and only outpaced Ting in the 35th (Bridgeville-Greenwood) by 128-119 with Protack getting 137 and the 30th (milford-Harrington-Felton) by 104-99 with Protack winning with 201.

An interesting situation arose in several districts with overwhelming Democratic registration majorities. O'Donnell beat Ting in the 2nd, 3rd, 16th & 18th Representative Districts. Unfortunately for her, these four districts only combined for 310 votes cast out of 14,386 cast statewide.

Ting received over 310 votes in 5 rep districts where Republicans come out in larger numbers (the 4th -West Wilmington, the 11th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred the 20th along Kirkwood Highway and the 38th in Sussex County (Millville-Bethany Beach-Fenwick-Selbyville).

For O'Donnell to have shot against Castle if she pursues a primary against him, she would need to beat Castle in some of the areas where Ting beat her because the areas in which she beat Ting do not supply enough votes. I am assuming Castle runs stronger than Ting,based on his prior election success and larger campaign treasury, in the places he needs votes like Brandywine Hundred and Western & Southern Sussex.

Some of the areas where she ran close to Ting in New Castle County ( the 24th -Eastern Newark, the 5th ,26th& 27th in Bear-Glasgow, and the 13th & 19th along Kirkwood Highway) do not supply enough votes in a Republican statewide primary ( if 2006 is at all representative) to give her the votes for an upset.