Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Subdivision Relative Turnout Relatively stable over the last four election cycles

I have read about the influx of people into Sussex County (transplants from upstate and out of state)in recent years and I began to wonder if Sussex County may have begun to contribute a higher percentage of statewide voter turnout in general elections in recent years.

The vote totals are up in Sussex County,but the number of actual votes cast in each of the other three political subdivisions (Kent County, New Castle County and the City of Wilmington) have also increased. This has created a situation where the relative turnout for each of the subdivisions is relatively stable in comparison to the others over the past few election cycles.

To minimize incumbency as an issue that could impact turnout, I looked at turnout in four open races in each of four recent election cycles and the pattern of relative turnout emerges with each subdivision contributing with no more than 3.0% points seperating its highest relative turnout from its lowest relative turnout. For 2002 I used the AGP report since the Delaware Election Commissioner's website did not break down election results by subdivsion in individual races for 2002.

2000 Presidential race-Total votes cast statewide327,529
City of Wilmington--------------25,374----7.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------187,821---57.3% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------48,247----14.7% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------66,287----20.2% of total turnout

2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-Total votes cast statewide 346,085
City of Wilmington--------------24,614---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----196,566---56.8% of total turnout
Kent County--------------------52,189----15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County------------------72,716----21.1% of total turnout

2006 Attorney General race-Total Votes cast statewide 253,214
City of Wilmington--------------17,010---6.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----141,665---55.9% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------38,339---15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------56,200---22.2% of total turnout

2008 Insurance Commissioner's race-Total Votes cast statewide 381,168
City of Wilmington--------------26,945---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------208,015--54.6% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------62,389---16.4% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------83,819---22.0% of total turnout

2002 AGP report-(individual races not broken down by county)which reports turnout by groups
Total turnout is 232,497
New Castle County-------------145,836----62.7% of total turnout
(suburban & City of Wilmington)
Kent County-------------------34,015-----14.6% of total turnout
Sussex County-----------------52,646-----22.6% of total turnout


No comments: