I recently stated I thought the shore area districts might get additional representation if registration trends matched population growth in the 2010 census. While this is still possible it may be because areas adjacent to the shore election districts are expanding. It is possible that some areas at the shore have reached the maximum saturation point for habitation and for more people to be in Eastern Sussex County they have to move inland,but as near to the shore as they can get which explains relative stagnation in Western Sussex and growth in registration numbers in the election districts in Eastern Sussex adjacent to beach election districts and a diminishment of relative registration percentages in the shore areas.
In the 37th Rep District the 1st and 2nd Election Districts are in Lewes in close proximity of the shore. All other polling places are several miles inland. In 2002 these two election districts made up 41.1% of total district registration when the total was 11,741. In 2009 these two districts make up 39.7% of the total registration when the total registration as of 9-1-2009 was 13,868.
2009-01 OF 37- 944 Dems- 925Rep- 534Others-Total 2,403 (17.3% of rep district registration)
2002-01-of 37th-880Dems-1,069Rep-496 Other-Total-2,445 (20.8% of rep district registration)
2009-02 OF 37 -1,228 Dems- 1,176Rep- 707Others-Total 3,111
(22.4% of rep district registration)
2002-02 OF 37-876 Dems-950Reps----559 Others-Total 2,385 (20.3% of rep district registration)
In the 38th Rep District Election Districts 4,5& 6 are along the coast from Fenwick Island to Bethany Beach. The other Election Districts are inland from Millville to Dagsboro,Roxana and Selbyville. Total registration was 15,901 in 2002 and 18,660 as of 9-1-2009 .The three shore districts made up 36.6 % of total district registration in 2002 and 34.0% of registration within the 38th in 2009.
2009-04 OF 38-- 770Dems- 996Reps-- 440-Others- 2,206Total (11.8% of rep district registration)
2002-04 of 38-- 742Dems-1,050 Reps--424 Others- 2,216 Total (13.9% of rep district registration)
2009-05 OF 38-- 553Dems- 685Reps-- 328Others-- 1,566 Total (8.4% of rep district registration)
2002-05 of 38- 586Dems-794 Reps--318 Others--1,698 Total (10.7% of rep district registration)
2009-06 OF 38-- 1,032Dems-- 1,092Reps-- 457Others-- 2,581Total (13.8 % of rep district registration)
2002-06 of 38--877 Dems--743Reps--293Others--- 1,913 Total (12.0 % of rep district registration)
It could be that as long time residents sell their property or estates are settled the new owners are not full-time residents,so do not register in Sussex County. Real estate is a possible factor.
Whatever the reason or reasons it is noteworthy that the 37th & 38th representative districts each grew by more than 2,000 additional registered voters between 2002 and 2009,but the 1st of the 37th, the 4th of the 38th and the 5th of the 38th each had declines in voter registration.
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agp2002.shtml#37
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Possible implications for the 2012 reapportionment if the voter numbers in the last post reflect population numbers
The last post gave more details about where voter registration figures have increased dramatically, the shore area in Eastern Sussex County and the MOT-Smyrna area. The Bear-Glasgow area in New Castle County and Kent County between Milford and Smyrna showed some growth,but less dramatic. The other six areas showed stagnation in relative voter numbers ( an area's percentage of the statewide registration total). In the zero sum game of reapportionment, an area's numbers only matter in relation to other areas. If the shore or MOT pick up an additional legislative seat, it has to come from somewhere.
I would say for House Democrats the shore area is more of a problem.For MOT to get additional representation , Newark-Bear-Glasgow districts could be extended southward. This happened in 2002 when the 10th State Senate District which had been mostly in Newark moved much of the district below the C&D canal while maintaining enough territory in Newark for incumbent State Senator Steve Amick,who is from Newark, to retain his seat through two elections.In 2008 Amick retired and the seat was filled by Rep Bethany Hall-Long,who had represented the MOT area since 2002.
To add an additional seat at the shore it has to come from somewhere and it is possible it could come from New Castle County which may have several areas with stagnant growth, if registration figures mirror population trends at all. It is not necessarily a given that any incumbents will be redistricted out of a viable re-election bid,but in each of the last three reapportionments at least one incumbent in the House was not serving in the next legislative session with reapportionment as a possible factor.
In 1982 6th Representative District incumbent Tom Brady and 4th Representative District incumbent Kevin Free, both Republicans, were both placed in the newly reconfigured 4th Representative District as the designation of 6th Rep District moved from the City of Wilmington to the Penny Hill area along Philadelphia Pike. Brady retired and a primary was avoided. Free went on to represent the newly configured 4th Rep District .
In 1992 Roarke Moore, D-2nd Rep District lost the seat he won in 1990 to the man he had beaten, Rep Al O Plant, in the Democratic primary. Moore had beaten Plant by only 35 votes in 1990,so I am not sure how much redistricting had to do with the change. 1992 had a heated mayoral primary in Wilmington between Dan Frawley & Jim Sills and this may have had as much impact on turnout in the district as the change in boundary lines. 2249 voters cast ballots in the 1992 rematch . Only 1187 voted in this race in 1990 . It is possible that the mayor's race may have brought out more voters who would vote for Plant, who did not make it to the polls in the 1990 off year primary.
In 2002 Democrats Hazel Plant, 2nd Rep District , and Arthur Scott, 3rd Rep District, faced off in a primary which Plant won to represent the newly configured 2nd representative district in which they both lived. Sussex County Democratic Representatives Shirley Price and John Schroeder each lost re-election bids to Republicans in the General election after district lines were redrawn. Democrat Rep Rick DiLiberto saw his 14th representative district designation go to the Rehoboth area with his old district split among adjacent districts . He chose to run for state senate instead and lost in a bid to unseat Republican Liane Sorenson. Democrat Dave Brady's 8th district in Brandywine Hundred was split between adjacent districts and the 8th district designation went to the MOT area.His home election district was placed in the 7th Rep District along with Republican Majority Leader Wayne Smith ,who beat Brady in the 2002 general election.
The map will constrain the stretching of geography for many districts as adjacent state borders to the west statewide, to the north in New Castle County and to the south in Sussex County limit movement of boundary lines. Districts throughout the state along the coast and the Delaware River are inhibited from moving eastward. The less stretching of current districts that is possible will have a direct impact on how many new districts are lost when new districts are created, if census data supports such a change.
As always, political will is going to be a major factor and the election of 2010 will impact who is around in 2012 to exert political will.
I would say for House Democrats the shore area is more of a problem.For MOT to get additional representation , Newark-Bear-Glasgow districts could be extended southward. This happened in 2002 when the 10th State Senate District which had been mostly in Newark moved much of the district below the C&D canal while maintaining enough territory in Newark for incumbent State Senator Steve Amick,who is from Newark, to retain his seat through two elections.In 2008 Amick retired and the seat was filled by Rep Bethany Hall-Long,who had represented the MOT area since 2002.
To add an additional seat at the shore it has to come from somewhere and it is possible it could come from New Castle County which may have several areas with stagnant growth, if registration figures mirror population trends at all. It is not necessarily a given that any incumbents will be redistricted out of a viable re-election bid,but in each of the last three reapportionments at least one incumbent in the House was not serving in the next legislative session with reapportionment as a possible factor.
In 1982 6th Representative District incumbent Tom Brady and 4th Representative District incumbent Kevin Free, both Republicans, were both placed in the newly reconfigured 4th Representative District as the designation of 6th Rep District moved from the City of Wilmington to the Penny Hill area along Philadelphia Pike. Brady retired and a primary was avoided. Free went on to represent the newly configured 4th Rep District .
In 1992 Roarke Moore, D-2nd Rep District lost the seat he won in 1990 to the man he had beaten, Rep Al O Plant, in the Democratic primary. Moore had beaten Plant by only 35 votes in 1990,so I am not sure how much redistricting had to do with the change. 1992 had a heated mayoral primary in Wilmington between Dan Frawley & Jim Sills and this may have had as much impact on turnout in the district as the change in boundary lines. 2249 voters cast ballots in the 1992 rematch . Only 1187 voted in this race in 1990 . It is possible that the mayor's race may have brought out more voters who would vote for Plant, who did not make it to the polls in the 1990 off year primary.
In 2002 Democrats Hazel Plant, 2nd Rep District , and Arthur Scott, 3rd Rep District, faced off in a primary which Plant won to represent the newly configured 2nd representative district in which they both lived. Sussex County Democratic Representatives Shirley Price and John Schroeder each lost re-election bids to Republicans in the General election after district lines were redrawn. Democrat Rep Rick DiLiberto saw his 14th representative district designation go to the Rehoboth area with his old district split among adjacent districts . He chose to run for state senate instead and lost in a bid to unseat Republican Liane Sorenson. Democrat Dave Brady's 8th district in Brandywine Hundred was split between adjacent districts and the 8th district designation went to the MOT area.His home election district was placed in the 7th Rep District along with Republican Majority Leader Wayne Smith ,who beat Brady in the 2002 general election.
The map will constrain the stretching of geography for many districts as adjacent state borders to the west statewide, to the north in New Castle County and to the south in Sussex County limit movement of boundary lines. Districts throughout the state along the coast and the Delaware River are inhibited from moving eastward. The less stretching of current districts that is possible will have a direct impact on how many new districts are lost when new districts are created, if census data supports such a change.
As always, political will is going to be a major factor and the election of 2010 will impact who is around in 2012 to exert political will.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Some additional hints at what areas may be impacted by reapportionment in 2012
While reapportionment is based on population figures and not voter registration figures, voter registration figures may give us an indication of what areas may gain and lose in the 2012 reapportionment which follows the 2010 census. I have broken up the state's 41 representative districts into ten areas comprised of districts that are adjacent to each other and share a geographic identifying factor ( for example, districts 1-4 are represented by city of Wilmington residents. Although large portions of some of these four district are outside the city, they each have enough city residents to make a city resident a viable candidate.) Some of the groupings may seem arbitrary,but this is designed to be the beginning of a discussion,not the culmination of a discussion and without beginning discussing geography -reapportionment can not be discussed.
I have provided 2002 & 2009 voter registration comparisons for each of the 41 rep districts. If a reader wishes to review maps at the Election Commissioner's website and come up with some different configurations of area groupings , that is great for continuing a discussion in which the final decision will impact Delaware's future for at the least the period 2012 to 2022.
What I have done for each representative district and grouping of districts is tell what proportion of the statewide voter registration each represented in 2002, the last time districts were reapportioned, and registration eff 9-1-2009.
2002 Statewide registration 519,816
2009 Statewide registration 606,433
Districts represented by a city resident
1st Rep district- 2002 -2.4% of statewide registration (12,247 voters)
1st Rep district- 2009- 2.3% of statewide registration (13,693 voters)
2nd Rep district-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,388 voters)
2nd Rep district-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,797 voters
3rd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (11,172 voters)
3rd Rep District-2009-2.0% of statewide registration (12,399 voters)
4th Rep District-2002-3.1% of statewide registration (16,152 voters)
4th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,131 voters)
This area--2002------9.6% of statewide registration
This area--2009------9.1% of statewide registration
Bear-Glasgow Area
5th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (11,942 voters)
5th Rep District-2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,801 voters)
15th Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,739 voters)
15th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (18,918 voters)
26th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,235 voters)
26th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,521 voters)
27th Rep District-2002-2.5%of statewide registration (12,731 voters)
27th Rep District-2009-2.4% of statewide registration (14,624 voters)
This area--2002------9.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-----10.1% of statewide registration
Brandywine Hundred
6th Rep District-2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,376 voters)
6th Rep District-2009--2.7% of statewide registration (16,643 voters)
7th Rep District-2002--2.9% of statewide registration (14,849 voters)
7th Rep District-2009--2.5% of statewide registration (14,974 voteres)
10th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,468 voters)
10th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,237 voters)
11th Rep District 2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,409 voters)
11th Rep District 2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,677 voters)
12th Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,545 voters)
12th Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (15,306 voters)
This area--2002-------14.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-------13.0% of statewide registration
Middletown-Odessa-Townsend & Smyrna
8th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (12,010 voters)
8th Rep District-2009--3.3% of statewide registration (19,758 voters)
9th Rep District-2002--2.6% of statewide registration (13,389)
9th Rep District-2009--3.2% of statewide registration (19,365)
28th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,670)
28th Rep district 2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,174)
29th Rep District-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,606)
29th Rep District-2009-2.8% of statewide registration (16,955)
This area---2002------9.0% of statewide registration
This area---2009------11.6% of statewide registration
Pike Creek-Kirkwood Highway Corridor between Newark & Wilmington
13th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,880)
13th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,132)
19th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,526)
19th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,095)
20th Rep District-2002-2.9% of statewide registration (15,083)
20th Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,500)
21st Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,561)
21st Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,975)
22nd Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,626)
22nd Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,986)
This area -2002-13.2% of statewide registration
This area-2009-12.0% of statewide registration
New Castle -Christiana
16th Rep District--2002--2.2% of statewide registration (11,380 voters)
16th Rep District--2009--2.2% of statewide registration (13,165voters)
17th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,532 voters)
17th Rep District--2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,877 voters)
18th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,504 voters)
18th Rep District--2002--2.1% of statewide registration (12,516 voters)
This area----------2002--7.0% of statewide registration
This area----------2009--6.6% of statewide registration
Newark
23rd Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,759)
23rd Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,950)
24th Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,204)
24th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,673)
25th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,336)
25th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,486)
This area--2002-------6.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-------6.1% of statewide registration
Eastern Sussex County-Milford to the Shore
14th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,837 voters)
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
I have provided 2002 & 2009 voter registration comparisons for each of the 41 rep districts. If a reader wishes to review maps at the Election Commissioner's website and come up with some different configurations of area groupings , that is great for continuing a discussion in which the final decision will impact Delaware's future for at the least the period 2012 to 2022.
What I have done for each representative district and grouping of districts is tell what proportion of the statewide voter registration each represented in 2002, the last time districts were reapportioned, and registration eff 9-1-2009.
2002 Statewide registration 519,816
2009 Statewide registration 606,433
Districts represented by a city resident
1st Rep district- 2002 -2.4% of statewide registration (12,247 voters)
1st Rep district- 2009- 2.3% of statewide registration (13,693 voters)
2nd Rep district-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,388 voters)
2nd Rep district-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,797 voters
3rd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (11,172 voters)
3rd Rep District-2009-2.0% of statewide registration (12,399 voters)
4th Rep District-2002-3.1% of statewide registration (16,152 voters)
4th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,131 voters)
This area--2002------9.6% of statewide registration
This area--2009------9.1% of statewide registration
Bear-Glasgow Area
5th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (11,942 voters)
5th Rep District-2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,801 voters)
15th Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,739 voters)
15th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (18,918 voters)
26th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,235 voters)
26th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,521 voters)
27th Rep District-2002-2.5%of statewide registration (12,731 voters)
27th Rep District-2009-2.4% of statewide registration (14,624 voters)
This area--2002------9.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-----10.1% of statewide registration
Brandywine Hundred
6th Rep District-2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,376 voters)
6th Rep District-2009--2.7% of statewide registration (16,643 voters)
7th Rep District-2002--2.9% of statewide registration (14,849 voters)
7th Rep District-2009--2.5% of statewide registration (14,974 voteres)
10th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,468 voters)
10th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,237 voters)
11th Rep District 2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,409 voters)
11th Rep District 2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,677 voters)
12th Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,545 voters)
12th Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (15,306 voters)
This area--2002-------14.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-------13.0% of statewide registration
Middletown-Odessa-Townsend & Smyrna
8th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (12,010 voters)
8th Rep District-2009--3.3% of statewide registration (19,758 voters)
9th Rep District-2002--2.6% of statewide registration (13,389)
9th Rep District-2009--3.2% of statewide registration (19,365)
28th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,670)
28th Rep district 2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,174)
29th Rep District-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,606)
29th Rep District-2009-2.8% of statewide registration (16,955)
This area---2002------9.0% of statewide registration
This area---2009------11.6% of statewide registration
Pike Creek-Kirkwood Highway Corridor between Newark & Wilmington
13th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,880)
13th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,132)
19th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,526)
19th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,095)
20th Rep District-2002-2.9% of statewide registration (15,083)
20th Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,500)
21st Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,561)
21st Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,975)
22nd Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,626)
22nd Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,986)
This area -2002-13.2% of statewide registration
This area-2009-12.0% of statewide registration
New Castle -Christiana
16th Rep District--2002--2.2% of statewide registration (11,380 voters)
16th Rep District--2009--2.2% of statewide registration (13,165voters)
17th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,532 voters)
17th Rep District--2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,877 voters)
18th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,504 voters)
18th Rep District--2002--2.1% of statewide registration (12,516 voters)
This area----------2002--7.0% of statewide registration
This area----------2009--6.6% of statewide registration
Newark
23rd Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,759)
23rd Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,950)
24th Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,204)
24th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,673)
25th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,336)
25th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,486)
This area--2002-------6.7% of statewide registration
This area--2009-------6.1% of statewide registration
Eastern Sussex County-Milford to the Shore
14th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,837 voters)
14th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (19,472)
36th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration( 12,531)
36th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,622)
37th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,742)
37th Rep District 2009-2.3% of statewide registration ( 13,868)
38th Rep District -2002-3.1% of statewide registration (15,901)
38th Rep District-2009-3.1% of statewide registration ( 18,660)
This area-2002---10.8% of statewide registration
This area-2009--11.3% of statewide registration
Kent County between Milford and Smyrna
30th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,695)
30th Rep District-2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,155)
31st Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,352)
31st Rep District 2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,869)
32nd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,677)
32nd Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,713)
33rd Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,572)
33rd Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,862)
34th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,796)
34th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,173)
This area -2002-11.1% of statewide registration
This area -2009-11.6% of statewide registration
Western & Southern Sussex County
35th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,183)
35th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,887)
39th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide regsitration (10,496)
39th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,464)
40th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,831)
40th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,603)
41st Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,884)
41st Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,757)
This area-2002--8.8% of statewide registration
This area-2009--8.8% of statewide registration
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
Saturday, September 12, 2009
The turnout estimate of 25% was low,but the turnout pattern continues
There were 13,868 registered voters in the 37th Rep District as of 9-1-2009.
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml
The unofficial vote total as of 8:42 pm on September 12,2009 is 4534.
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Unofficial turnout reflects a 32.7% turnout which is above the 23-27% I predicted, but continues the pattern of legislative special elections held 80 days before or after June 30th having a turnout of at least 25%.
This pattern has applied to ten out of eleven state legislative special elections held since 1997 that I have reviewed.
http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml
The unofficial vote total as of 8:42 pm on September 12,2009 is 4534.
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
Unofficial turnout reflects a 32.7% turnout which is above the 23-27% I predicted, but continues the pattern of legislative special elections held 80 days before or after June 30th having a turnout of at least 25%.
This pattern has applied to ten out of eleven state legislative special elections held since 1997 that I have reviewed.
Today's special election in the 37th Rep District had a similar result as 2002 general election
I found it interesting at how closely the results by election district in the 9-12-2009 37th Rep District special election mirrored the 2002 general election.
Democrat Robinson won the 1st and 2nd election districts in the 37th today , just as Democrat John Schroeder had in 2002. Schroeder was the last Democrat to come close to winning this seat,losing by less than a percentage point to Joe Booth. In 2004 Booth beat Nicholas Mirro 73% to 27%. Booth was unopposed in 2006 and beat Helen Truitt in 2008 by a margin of 64%-36%
Republican Ruth Briggs King won election districts 4-8 as had Republican Joe Booth.
Robinson lost the 3rd by 97 votes and Schroeder won it by one vote,but otherwise it was close to the overall result with Robinson losing closer in Georgetown where he lives and Schroeder,who was from Lewes, winning by a wider margin in Lewes than Robinson did .Schroeder’s wider margin in Lewes kept his race closer.
Booth beat Schroeder 50.3% to 49.7%.
Briggs King won 53.6% to 46.4%.
Sept 12, 2009
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37
----------------District Total ROBINSON R----- BRIGGS KING R
-----------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------1034------ 600---------------- 434
02-37------------------ 998------ 509---------------- 489
03-37------------------ 493------ 198---------------- 295
04-37------------------ 178------- 68----------------- 110
05-37------------------ 512------ 171----------------- 341
06-37----------------- 900------ 405----------------- 495
07-37----------------- 315------- 112----------------- 203
08-37----------------- 104------- 42------------------- 62
RD Tot ---------------4534----- 2105---------------- 2429
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
2002
-----------------------DISTRICT TOTAL SCHROEDER------ BOOTH J W
-------------------------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------------1440-------------- 978--------------- 462
02-37----------------------- 1317-------------- 845--------------- 472
03-37------------------------ 797-------------- 399--------------- 398
04-37------------------------ 246--------------- 94--------------- 152
05-37------------------------ 788-------------- 233--------------- 555
06-37----------------------- 1210-------------- 446--------------- 764
07-37----------------------- 507--------------- 166---------------- 341
08-37----------------------- 189---------------- 64----------------- 125
RD TOT------------------- 6494-------------- 3225---------------- 3269
CAND TOT 6494 3225 3269
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml
Democrat Robinson won the 1st and 2nd election districts in the 37th today , just as Democrat John Schroeder had in 2002. Schroeder was the last Democrat to come close to winning this seat,losing by less than a percentage point to Joe Booth. In 2004 Booth beat Nicholas Mirro 73% to 27%. Booth was unopposed in 2006 and beat Helen Truitt in 2008 by a margin of 64%-36%
Republican Ruth Briggs King won election districts 4-8 as had Republican Joe Booth.
Robinson lost the 3rd by 97 votes and Schroeder won it by one vote,but otherwise it was close to the overall result with Robinson losing closer in Georgetown where he lives and Schroeder,who was from Lewes, winning by a wider margin in Lewes than Robinson did .Schroeder’s wider margin in Lewes kept his race closer.
Booth beat Schroeder 50.3% to 49.7%.
Briggs King won 53.6% to 46.4%.
Sept 12, 2009
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37
----------------District Total ROBINSON R----- BRIGGS KING R
-----------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------1034------ 600---------------- 434
02-37------------------ 998------ 509---------------- 489
03-37------------------ 493------ 198---------------- 295
04-37------------------ 178------- 68----------------- 110
05-37------------------ 512------ 171----------------- 341
06-37----------------- 900------ 405----------------- 495
07-37----------------- 315------- 112----------------- 203
08-37----------------- 104------- 42------------------- 62
RD Tot ---------------4534----- 2105---------------- 2429
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml
2002
-----------------------DISTRICT TOTAL SCHROEDER------ BOOTH J W
-------------------------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN
01-37 -----------------------1440-------------- 978--------------- 462
02-37----------------------- 1317-------------- 845--------------- 472
03-37------------------------ 797-------------- 399--------------- 398
04-37------------------------ 246--------------- 94--------------- 152
05-37------------------------ 788-------------- 233--------------- 555
06-37----------------------- 1210-------------- 446--------------- 764
07-37----------------------- 507--------------- 166---------------- 341
08-37----------------------- 189---------------- 64----------------- 125
RD TOT------------------- 6494-------------- 3225---------------- 3269
CAND TOT 6494 3225 3269
http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
About 25% turnout predicted in the 37th Rep District on 9-12-2009
There are possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and a 3:30 pm football game at the University of Delaware,so people who want high turnout may have to get people out before the weather scares them away or the game pulls them away,but I think turnout will still be around the 25% it has been usually when a legislative special election is within 80 days of June 30th.
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.
Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.
Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Some More Perspective on the Last Post
There are 41 Representative Districts in Delaware. If each were about equal in population and each had roughly equal voter registration percentages each district would account for 2.4% of the statewide registration total. All but one of the 6 districts mentioned in the last post exceeds this number.Their combined 17.9% exceeds the 14.4% they would account for if registration per representative district were roughly about equal.
If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.
If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Some Early Thoughts om Reapportionment.It's 3 years away,but this might be a trend
The reapportionment of the Delaware General Assembly takes place every ten years after the census. The next US census is in 2010 and the next reapportionment will take place in 2012. It is very early to be too specific about what areas will get additional representation in the General Assembly due to an increase in their population in relation to other areas, but there appears to be a trend.
I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.
While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.
Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.
Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.
8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend
2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total
2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)
9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City
2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total
2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)
14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-
2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total
2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)
28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total
2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)
29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming
2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total
2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)
38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---
2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total
2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)
These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.
Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.
Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.
While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.
Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.
Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.
8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend
2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total
2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)
9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City
2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total
2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)
14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-
2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total
2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)
28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total
2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)
29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming
2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total
2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)
38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---
2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total
2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)
These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.
Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.
Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.
http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml
The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.
For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.
For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.
http://elections.delaware.gov/
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