Sunday, September 6, 2009

Some More Perspective on the Last Post

There are 41 Representative Districts in Delaware. If each were about equal in population and each had roughly equal voter registration percentages each district would account for 2.4% of the statewide registration total. All but one of the 6 districts mentioned in the last post exceeds this number.Their combined 17.9% exceeds the 14.4% they would account for if registration per representative district were roughly about equal.

If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.


Cassandra said...

Trying this comment again ...

This is really interesting work, John. Do you think that demographics could have changed here enough for any area to lose a seat, perhaps by being combined with other areas to get to the right numbers balance?

John Tobin said...

I am still looking at other districts statewide and it is possible some areas may lose a seat. If adjacent areas lose population they can spread out districts (say move a traditional city of Wilmington district further beyond the city limits),but if the beaches gain population and some areas of New Castle County that have no room for development stagnate population wise,I would say it is likely they would lose a rep.
I'll keep researching and post more soon. Thanks for reading and commenting.