Saturday, September 26, 2009

Not all the growth in Shore Rep Districts is in the Election Districts near the shore

I recently stated I thought the shore area districts might get additional representation if registration trends matched population growth in the 2010 census. While this is still possible it may be because areas adjacent to the shore election districts are expanding. It is possible that some areas at the shore have reached the maximum saturation point for habitation and for more people to be in Eastern Sussex County they have to move inland,but as near to the shore as they can get which explains relative stagnation in Western Sussex and growth in registration numbers in the election districts in Eastern Sussex adjacent to beach election districts and a diminishment of relative registration percentages in the shore areas.

In the 37th Rep District the 1st and 2nd Election Districts are in Lewes in close proximity of the shore. All other polling places are several miles inland. In 2002 these two election districts made up 41.1% of total district registration when the total was 11,741. In 2009 these two districts make up 39.7% of the total registration when the total registration as of 9-1-2009 was 13,868.

2009-01 OF 37- 944 Dems- 925Rep- 534Others-Total 2,403 (17.3% of rep district registration)

2002-01-of 37th-880Dems-1,069Rep-496 Other-Total-2,445 (20.8% of rep district registration)

2009-02 OF 37 -1,228 Dems- 1,176Rep- 707Others-Total 3,111
(22.4% of rep district registration)

2002-02 OF 37-876 Dems-950Reps----559 Others-Total 2,385 (20.3% of rep district registration)

In the 38th Rep District Election Districts 4,5& 6 are along the coast from Fenwick Island to Bethany Beach. The other Election Districts are inland from Millville to Dagsboro,Roxana and Selbyville. Total registration was 15,901 in 2002 and 18,660 as of 9-1-2009 .The three shore districts made up 36.6 % of total district registration in 2002 and 34.0% of registration within the 38th in 2009.

2009-04 OF 38-- 770Dems- 996Reps-- 440-Others- 2,206Total (11.8% of rep district registration)

2002-04 of 38-- 742Dems-1,050 Reps--424 Others- 2,216 Total (13.9% of rep district registration)

2009-05 OF 38-- 553Dems- 685Reps-- 328Others-- 1,566 Total (8.4% of rep district registration)

2002-05 of 38- 586Dems-794 Reps--318 Others--1,698 Total (10.7% of rep district registration)

2009-06 OF 38-- 1,032Dems-- 1,092Reps-- 457Others-- 2,581Total (13.8 % of rep district registration)
2002-06 of 38--877 Dems--743Reps--293Others--- 1,913 Total (12.0 % of rep district registration)

It could be that as long time residents sell their property or estates are settled the new owners are not full-time residents,so do not register in Sussex County. Real estate is a possible factor.
Whatever the reason or reasons it is noteworthy that the 37th & 38th representative districts each grew by more than 2,000 additional registered voters between 2002 and 2009,but the 1st of the 37th, the 4th of the 38th and the 5th of the 38th each had declines in voter registration.

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