Influence of Wilmington Rep Districts in the 2010 Democratic Statewide primary may depend on low turnout statewide and local primaries

Four state representative districts have Democratic legislators who reside in the City of Wilmington. They are rep districts 1-4. A substantial portion of each of these districts is within the city borders. For the purposes of this discussion they will be viewed as Wilmington districts with the realization that they may contain election districts outside the city limits.



The 13th and 16th representative districts have small portions of the city, an election district each.They will not be considered here ,since the impact is so small.In the 2008 city council president's race 9,601 votes were cast citywide. Only 280 of these votes were in the 13th & 16th which are represented by suburban residents and whose districts are geographically primarily suburban districts.



Here is the breakdown of the current Democratic registration of rep districts 1-4 & the state:

1st Rep district --10,000 (3.5% of statewide Democrats)

2nd Rep Distritct-9,251 (3.2% of statewide Democrats)

3rd Rep District--8,959 (3.1% of statewide Democrats)

4th Rep District--7,728 (2.7% of statewide Democrats)

1st-4th RepDists--35,938 (12.6% of statewide Democrats)

Statewide-------286,282



http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

Below is the impact of the city districts on some statewide Democratic primaries since the current district boundaries came into existence in 2002. I intentionally did not choose the 2008 primary for Governor between Jack Markell & John Carney because that drew several thousand people who did not vote in the Insurance Commissioner's race or US Rep race. These voters are not as likely to vote in an off-year election without a marquee matchup (two opponents each of whom has a substantial treasury and/or long standing name recognition in a major race). I liken these voters to people who follow baseball only during the World Series or football only during the Superbowl.

2008 Insurance Commissioner's Race-66,062 votes cast statewide
1st Rep District--3,249 (4.9% of votes cast)
2ndRep District-2,149 (3.3% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,725 (2.6% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-2,451 (3.7% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-9,574 (14.5% of votes cast)

2006 US Representative Race-15,768
1st Rep District-1,537 (9.7% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-773 (4.9% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-869 (5.5% of votes cast
4th Rep District-1344 (8.5% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4523 (28.6% of votes cast)


2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-31,799
1st Rep District-2,232 (7.0% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,638 (5.2% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-1,389 (4.4% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-1,667 (5.2% of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-6926 (21.8% of votes cast)



2002 US Representative Race-17,223
1st Rep District-1,735 (10.1% of votes cast)
2nd Rep District-1,292 (7.5% of votes cast)
3rd Rep District-773 (4.5% of votes cast)
4th Rep District-848 (4.9 % of votes cast)
1-4 Rep Districts-4638 (27.0% of votes cast)

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

When statewide turnout was higher in 2004 & 2008, the city amounted to less of a percentage of the statewide total. When turnout was less in 2002 & 2006 the city's impact was several percentage points higher.

One reason is that city residents are much more used to voting in primaries and that in some districts the Democratic primary is, in effect , the election because the Democratic registration edge over the Republican is so overwhelming (more than 7-1 in 1st , 2nd & 3rd Rep Districts) , that in the general election the Democratic candidate runs unopposed or against minimal opposition.

The existence of local primaries may also drive up particpation in the statewide primaries in the city.Some people may come out to vote in the local primary and vote for the statewide races as well, is one possibility.

In 2006 there were 3 Democratic State Rep primaries not in the city of Wilmington, but all four state rep districts represented by a city resident had a primary. In each of the state rep primaries more people voted than in the US Rep primary: 1795 in the 1st, 815 in the 2nd, 1,013 in the 3rd and 1486 in the 4th.

In 2002 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Rep Districts each had a primary for state rep and each of these also had more votes cast than in the US Rep race. In the 4th Rep District in 2002 there was no local state rep primary and the turnout of 848 was significantly less than the 1344 who voted in the US Rep race in 2006 when there was hotly contested 3 way state rep race that included 2 sitting city council members, Gerald Brady ,who won, and Loretta Walsh.

It is early to gauge what turnout will be in 2010,but I would assume it would be closer to the 2002 & 2006 numbers than the 2004 & 2008 numbers. Even with multiple statewide primaries, it will be an off-year election. Unless there is a change in the makeup of the US Rep race or US Senate race which creates a situation in which two high profile ( in terms of cash, organization and/or name recognition) Democratic candidates go head-to-head, I don't expect turnout to be especially high statewide. This could mean the Wilmington districts could have an impact way beyond the 12.6% they represent of registered Democrats.

A campaign finance comparison in the GOP Senate race

Most candidates would prefer Mike Castle's decades of wins (& name recognition) and a six figure bankroll to Christine O'Donnell's 2 prior losses and $24,000 in debt with less than $2500 on hand. I don't know if Christine O'Donnell considers herself an underdog,but the campaign finance reports reflect that possibility.

Looking at the numbers for cash raised, I was surprised to see that what is available as documented on the OpenSecrets website has Castle only out fund-raising O’Donnell a little better than 2-1 . This appears to be for the period since the 2008 election.

The cash on hand line of the raised and spent report below shows the financial disadvantage O’Donnell faces. Castle had $852,689 on hand when last reported ( the date is not supplied on OpenSecrets.Org,but the figures appear to match the 9-30-2009 filing Castle’s campaign did with the FEC) and O’Donnell had $2,462 on hand as of 3-31-2009. Possibly as telling for campaign stability is that Castle has zero debt and O’Donnell’s most recent report showed $24,298 in debt.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN 2010:
Select an election cycle:
Race All Candidates AmountRaised
Senate Michael N. Castle (R) $257,619
Christine O'Donnell (R) $123,686


http://www.opensecrets.org/races/election.php?state=DE


Total Raised and Spent
Michael N. Castle (R)
Raised: $257,619
Spent: $267,674
Cash on Hand: $852,689
Last Report: Not available

PAC contributions $234,250 (91%)
Individual contributions $18,554 (7%)
Candidate self-financing $0 (0%)
Other $4,815 (2%)

Christine O'Donnell (R)
Raised: $123,686
Spent: $120,964
Cash on Hand: $2,462
Last Report: March 31, 2009

PAC contributions $1,750 (1%)
Individual contributions $108,015 (87%)
Candidate self-financing $716 (1%)
Other $13,205 (11%)

NOTE: All the numbers on this page are for the 2009 - 2010 House election cycle and based on Federal Election Commission data available electronically on Tuesday, November 10, 2009.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=DES2&cycle=2010



For 6-30-2009 and 9-30-2009 the FEC report indicates failure to file for O’Donnell.

The 3-31-2009 quarterly report filed 4/15/2009 also showed O’Donnell’s campaign to be over $24,000 in debt. While debt can sometimes reflect money a candidate had loaned his/her campaign in this case much of it appears to be vendors . Some of these examples are $4,018 to Airport Business Center for rent, $3,275 to Get Kinetic for a video shoot and $5,275.91 Koch & Hoos ,LLC for accounting services. Logistically, I would think this kind of debt is more problematic than candidate loans, since it is possible these vendors may withhold future service or the outstanding debt may make it more difficult to transact business with other vendors who may have concerns about repayment.

Here is the link to the 3-31-2009 report:

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00449595


The loans are reported on pages 23-27 of a 30 pages PDF.


Here is the link to the report for Castle's House campaign for the period ending 9-30-2009. The only filing for his Senate campaign is the filing of candidacy in Oct 2009

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00254938



Here is the link to the FEC homepage,if you want to research deeper:

http://www.fec.gov/

I was unable to locate O'Donnell's 2010 campaign website and attempts to access her 2008 website took me to Yahoo search.


Here is Castle's campaign website:

http://www.castlecampaign.org/

History may have been kinder to Jefferson & Jackson than Delaware was

The Delaware State Democratic Committee is proud to have Bill Clinton as their speaker at the annual Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner on Nov 10th. Their website indicates the event is sold out:

http://www.deldems.org/


I thought this might be a time to research how Delaware treated Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson when they were on the ballot. It looks like Delaware was a disappointment to both of them

Thomas Jefferson was elected president twice and vice-president once. He was on the presidential ballot four times:
1792 ,1796,1800 and 1804. Over those four elections he received no electoral votes from Delaware . In 1800 the electoral college balloting ended in a tie between Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
The decision of who would be president was settled in the US House of Representatives. There were 16 states at the time. Jefferson won the votes of 10 states, Burr won four states and two states abstained. Delaware was one of the abstaining states.


http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1789_1821.html#1804



Andrew Jackson was on the presidential ballot in 1824,1828 and 1832.He won the presidency in 1828 and 1832 after losing to John Quincy Adams in 1924. He did not receive any electoral votes during any of these elections.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1821_1837.html#1824



These are not the only presidents of note to be slighted by Delaware's electors.
Abraham Lincoln did not get any Delaware electoral votes in either of his presidential victories in 1860 or 1865.

http://archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/1853_1869.html#1860

At least when it comes to the 1800s we can not say "so went Delaware, so went the nation".

For more on the presidential election of 1800 see:
"Adams Vs. Jefferson, The Tumultuos Election of 1800" by John Ferling

A Pattern That May Impact the Delaware House of Representatives in 2010,maybe not

A lot has been written about how in the off year election after a newly elected president has taken office that president's party often loses seats in Congress. Does it apply to the Delaware House of Representatives as well? A review of the elections since 1964 would say it might .


It happened in 1966 -2 years after Democrat Lyndon Johnson became President as Democrats lost 18 seats in the House:

1964 30 Democrats, 5 Republicans
1966 12 Democrats, 23 Republicans



It happened in 1970 -2 years after Republican Richard Nixon won the presidency as Republicans lost 3 seats in the House:

1968 13 Democrats, 26 Republicans

1970 16 Democrats, 23Republicans

[In November 1974 ,two months after Nixon resigned, the Democrats took a 25-16 majority in the Delaware House of Representatives, for a turnaround of 12 seats within 3 election cycles.]


It happended in 1978 -2 years after Democrat Jimmy Carter won the presidency as Democrats lost 5 seats in the House:

1976 26 Democrats, 15 Republicans

1978 21 Democrats, 20 Republicans



It happened in 1982 -2 years after Republican Ronald Reagan beat Carter as Republicans lost 9 seats in the House:

1980 16 Democrats, 25Republicans

1982 25Democrats, 16Republicans

It did not happen in 1990- 2 years after Republican George HW Bush was elected president and the Republicans gained an additional seat in the State House

1988 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1990 17 Democrats, 24 Republicans


It happened in 1994 -2 years after Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency as Democrats lost 4 seats in the House:

1992 18 Democrats, 23 Republicans

1994 14 Democrats, 27 Republicans





In 2002, 2 years after George W Bush was elected president, it did not happen, as Republicans picked up an additional 3 seats in the House.

I think this may have had less to do with the Bush presidency than the fact Republican party held a majority in the Delaware House of Representatives and was able to write the district lines during reapportionment which took place between the 2000 and 2002 elections. Four Democrat incumbents (Dave Brady, Rich DiLiberto ,Shirley Price and John Schroeder) found themselves with district lines that made re-election an impossibility in 2002.

2000 15 Democrats, 26 Republicans

2002 12 Democrats, 29 Republicans

Admittedly, issues other than who is currently in the White House affect who is elected as a State Representative in the Delaware House of Representatives, but I found it interesting that this pattern holds up in 5 of the last 7 presidencies. I don't know if it possible to establish cause and effect in this case or whether this pattern is likely to continue.



2000 & 2002 results are from the Elections Archive section of the State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml


Prior results are from Table 3, pp 470-488 from Only in Delaware, Celia Cohen, who references the Delaware State Election Commissioner's Office. I assumed she used paper sources at the Dover office.
Unfortunately, on the Commissioner's website elections from 1954-1968 are not currently available.

Two local races seem to have made an impact on statewide turnout in the 2006 GOP primary and one appears not to have impacted statewide turnout

Statewide Republican turnout was 8% in the 2006 US Senate primary,but two areas with higher turnout each had a state representative district race to fill a vacancy created by the retiring of an incumbent Republican state representative. These two races appeared to have impacted turnout in the US Senate race since the turnout in the 20th & 33rd districts for the US Senate primary was 856 and 944, respectively. No other district of the remaining 39 districts had a voter turnout higher than 695.

In the 20th Rep District in New Castle County between Newark and Wilmington , 976 people voted in the Representative primary in which Nick Manolakos beat Brian Moore 520 to 356. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5,885 registered Republicans in the 20th,making turnout for that race 16.6% ,over twice the statewide turnout.

Even more telling is that only 856 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 120 fewer than the local race, implying the local race is what brought people out to vote.The 20th Rep District made up only 3.3% of the 178,366 Registered Repubicans ,but made up 6.0 % of the 14,386 Republicans who voted in the US Senate primary.


In the 33rd Rep District 967 people voted in the Representative primary in which Ulysses S Grant beat Harold Peterman 496 to 471. As of 9-1-2006 there were 5080 registered Republicans in the 33rd Rep District which has election districts in both Kent & Sussex Counties. Turnout in this state rep race was 19.0%, almost 2 and a half times the statewide average.

944 Republicans voted in the US Senate primary, 23 fewer than voted in the State Rep primary. The 33rd Rep District made up 2.8% of the Registered Republicans statewide, but made up 6.6% of the Republicans who voted in the US Senate Primary.

An interesting contrast is the only other Republican state legislative primary in 2006 which took place in the 14th State Senate District in which John Feroce beat Barbara Allsopp 354-323. This district is near the C&D canal and has election districts in New Castle and Kent Counties.They both were on the November ballot with Feroce as the Republican nominee and Allsopp as the Independent Party of Delaware nominee . Incumbent Democratic State Senator James Vaughn defeated both of them with 59.1% of the vote in the general election.

The Sept 2006 primary only got 677 of the state senate district’s 9557 registered Republicans out to vote or 7.1% turnout, less than the statewide average despite there being both the US Senate race and the state senate race.

The numbers tell what happened,but the question is why. The 20th & 33rd had been represented by a Republican representative prior to 2006.The 20th would continue to be represented by a Republican after Manolakos’ victory over Democrat Richard Korn in November 2006. In the 33rd Grant lost to Democrat Bob Walls,but only by 81 votes-less than a percentage point. I think the Republicans in September in these two districts were more motivated to come out because there was a greater likelihood of success in November.

In the 14th State senate District, they faced a long-time Democrat incumbent and a Democrat registration advantage of 13,527 to 9,557. The Republicans may have had less of a vested interest in voting in the September primary because they had less faith in the outcome in November General election and with good reason.



Registration figures for Sept 2006

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/vr/regtotals/2006/09_06_rep.shtml

Election results for Sept 2006

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary_edrd.shtml

2006 US Senate Republican Primary results by Representative District-Some Context for the last post and the next post

District----Total---O'Donnell---Protack---Ting
1st----------128 -----36---------46--------46
2nd----------52-------19---------22--------11
3rd----------42-------17----------11--------14
4th----------558------89---------115-------354
5th----------91-------22----------42-------27
6th----------456-----83---------183-------190
7th----------608-----90---------218-------300
8th----------356-----59---------162-------133
9th----------338-----52---------163-------122
10th---------489-----81---------191-------217
11th---------672-----106--------233-------333
12th---------660-----71---------241-------348
13th---------149-----43---------39---------67
14th---------686------86---------219-------381
15th---------202-----36---------103--------63
16th---------49------12---------27---------10
17th---------188-----38---------67---------83
18th---------167-----48---------92---------27
19th---------248-----54---------128--------66
20th---------856-----163--------369--------324(also had a State Rep Primary)
21st---------363-----50---------169-------144
22nd---------480-----71---------221-------188
23rd---------297-----48---------115-------134
24th---------123-----36----------46--------41
25th---------178-----38----------61--------79
26th---------123-----32----------52--------39
27th---------183-----44----------85--------54
28th---------235-----48---------107-------80
29th---------320-----55---------142-------123
30th---------404-----104--------201-------99
31st---------262------39---------114-------109
32nd---------246-----34---------117--------95
33rd---------944-----232--------426--------286(also had State Rep primary)
34th---------410 -----61---------191--------158
35th---------301-----128---------137-------119
36th---------367-----46----------165-------156
37th---------469-----39----------150-------280
38th---------695-----109---------268------318
39th---------336-----47----------99--------190
40th---------220-----50----------78--------92
41st---------435------72---------153-------210
Total-----14,386-----2,505-------5,771-----6,110

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_primary/elect06_primary/elect06_edrd.shtml

A Look at the 2006 GOP US Senate Primary in Delaware

My original idea was to look at how each of the three Republican US Senate candidates did by Representative District in 2006. My assumption was if Christine O'Donnell stays in the Senate primary in 2010 and squares off against Mike Castle, her only chance is to win decisively in districts where she did well against Jan Ting,who was the organization endorsed candidate in 2006, and to lose close to Castle in districts she lost to Ting.Some on the right may feel she would get the lion's share of Mike Protack's votes and that is possible,but it is also possible several hundred of Protack's voters may not have even voted if he were not on the ballot.

One theory I have read is she would pull strongly from downstate Republicans on the assumption that they may be more conservative than their counterparts in New Castle County. After looking at the numbers I am wondering if downstate Republicans as a group are not being misrepresented by a vocal conservative minority.

Jan Ting got more votes than Protack and O'Donnell combined (190 for Ting and 146 for his two opponents)in the 39th District which encompasses Seaford and Blades in Western Sussex County. In the 41st District which includes Millsboro, Gumboro and Frankford in Southern Sussex County, Ting received 210 votes while Protack and O'Donnell combined received 223. In the 37th which includes Georgetown and Lewes, Ting received 280 votes and his opponents combined total was 189.

While Ting lost several districts to Protack in Kent and Sussex, O'Donnell did not win any and only outpaced Ting in the 35th (Bridgeville-Greenwood) by 128-119 with Protack getting 137 and the 30th (milford-Harrington-Felton) by 104-99 with Protack winning with 201.

An interesting situation arose in several districts with overwhelming Democratic registration majorities. O'Donnell beat Ting in the 2nd, 3rd, 16th & 18th Representative Districts. Unfortunately for her, these four districts only combined for 310 votes cast out of 14,386 cast statewide.

Ting received over 310 votes in 5 rep districts where Republicans come out in larger numbers (the 4th -West Wilmington, the 11th & 12th in Brandywine Hundred the 20th along Kirkwood Highway and the 38th in Sussex County (Millville-Bethany Beach-Fenwick-Selbyville).

For O'Donnell to have shot against Castle if she pursues a primary against him, she would need to beat Castle in some of the areas where Ting beat her because the areas in which she beat Ting do not supply enough votes. I am assuming Castle runs stronger than Ting,based on his prior election success and larger campaign treasury, in the places he needs votes like Brandywine Hundred and Western & Southern Sussex.

Some of the areas where she ran close to Ting in New Castle County ( the 24th -Eastern Newark, the 5th ,26th& 27th in Bear-Glasgow, and the 13th & 19th along Kirkwood Highway) do not supply enough votes in a Republican statewide primary ( if 2006 is at all representative) to give her the votes for an upset.

In Memory of My Favorite Republican

I have been involved in Delaware Democratic Party politics since the 1970s and am currently married to an elected official who is a member of the Democratic Party,but I am not one who is unwilling to concede there may some good people on the other side of the ballot from time to time.

During the Senate Watergate hearings in the 1970s I admired the tough questioning by then-Republican US Senator Lowell Weicker of Connecticut. Locally, I admired the work State Sen.Andy Knox did on the Coastal Zone Act and State Sen. Dan Weiss did in raising the concerns of migrant farm workers in the 1970s. But if all is politics is local, it does not get more local than the dinner table and I shared one with my favorite Republican, Zelda M "Peg" Tobin, my mother who died 9-27-2009.

She grew up in a Republican family in Western Sussex where her father, Harry Speicher, was politically active for decades in Republican politics and her youngest brother David "Everett" Speicher served one term as a Republican state representative in the 1950s .Her natural interests lay outside politics. She loved music, playing the accordion and piano by ear, and worked as a registered nurse for over four decades. She was not predisposed to participate in partisan politics beyond voting.

I think she could be described as an "Eisenhower Republican", moderate on social issues and not opposed to supporting needed infrastructure like schools and highways, but she was no free-wheeling liberal when it came to public spending. In the weeks before she died , she repeatedly asked how President Obama could expect to pay for the expansion of health care. My recollection is she did not wish the US to seek foreign entanglements whether LBJ's War in Vietnam or George W Bush's Iraq War, although she believed in enough military to keep us safe and had married a World War II veteran.

At one point I probably wanted us to embrace my political philosophy,but now see that her tolerance of my political activity might have been the embrace I did not realize I had gotten.

During the 1972 election I volunteered in Sussex County for the McGovern for President campaign and the initial senatorial campaign for Joe Biden. The McGovern campaign in Sussex County did not have phone banks. It had volunteers who made calls from their homes. While my mother did not especially like politics and I doubt she voted for McGovern, she did not stand in the way when I turned our kitchen into a one person phone bank for a couple hours a night 3-4 nights a week for 6-8 weeks in the fall of 1972.

In a community that was still majorly impacted by the agricultural economy and was not particularly sympathetic to labor unions, she did not dissuade me from leafleting for the United Farm Workers Lettuce boycott .

As I continued my involvement in the Young Democrats, in student government at the University of Delaware and partisan election campaigns, she would occasionally remind me her impression that "politics is a dirty business" , but she always saved newspaper clippings of the times my political activity made the newspaper.

Looking back the embrace would not be for my politics,but for me doing something that was important to me and getting some occasional notoriety for it --even though politics was probably something she might have wished I had not invested my energy in so deeply.

Thanks , Mom.

Not all the growth in Shore Rep Districts is in the Election Districts near the shore

I recently stated I thought the shore area districts might get additional representation if registration trends matched population growth in the 2010 census. While this is still possible it may be because areas adjacent to the shore election districts are expanding. It is possible that some areas at the shore have reached the maximum saturation point for habitation and for more people to be in Eastern Sussex County they have to move inland,but as near to the shore as they can get which explains relative stagnation in Western Sussex and growth in registration numbers in the election districts in Eastern Sussex adjacent to beach election districts and a diminishment of relative registration percentages in the shore areas.

In the 37th Rep District the 1st and 2nd Election Districts are in Lewes in close proximity of the shore. All other polling places are several miles inland. In 2002 these two election districts made up 41.1% of total district registration when the total was 11,741. In 2009 these two districts make up 39.7% of the total registration when the total registration as of 9-1-2009 was 13,868.

2009-01 OF 37- 944 Dems- 925Rep- 534Others-Total 2,403 (17.3% of rep district registration)

2002-01-of 37th-880Dems-1,069Rep-496 Other-Total-2,445 (20.8% of rep district registration)

2009-02 OF 37 -1,228 Dems- 1,176Rep- 707Others-Total 3,111
(22.4% of rep district registration)

2002-02 OF 37-876 Dems-950Reps----559 Others-Total 2,385 (20.3% of rep district registration)

In the 38th Rep District Election Districts 4,5& 6 are along the coast from Fenwick Island to Bethany Beach. The other Election Districts are inland from Millville to Dagsboro,Roxana and Selbyville. Total registration was 15,901 in 2002 and 18,660 as of 9-1-2009 .The three shore districts made up 36.6 % of total district registration in 2002 and 34.0% of registration within the 38th in 2009.

2009-04 OF 38-- 770Dems- 996Reps-- 440-Others- 2,206Total (11.8% of rep district registration)

2002-04 of 38-- 742Dems-1,050 Reps--424 Others- 2,216 Total (13.9% of rep district registration)

2009-05 OF 38-- 553Dems- 685Reps-- 328Others-- 1,566 Total (8.4% of rep district registration)

2002-05 of 38- 586Dems-794 Reps--318 Others--1,698 Total (10.7% of rep district registration)

2009-06 OF 38-- 1,032Dems-- 1,092Reps-- 457Others-- 2,581Total (13.8 % of rep district registration)
2002-06 of 38--877 Dems--743Reps--293Others--- 1,913 Total (12.0 % of rep district registration)

It could be that as long time residents sell their property or estates are settled the new owners are not full-time residents,so do not register in Sussex County. Real estate is a possible factor.
Whatever the reason or reasons it is noteworthy that the 37th & 38th representative districts each grew by more than 2,000 additional registered voters between 2002 and 2009,but the 1st of the 37th, the 4th of the 38th and the 5th of the 38th each had declines in voter registration.

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml


http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agp2002.shtml#37

Possible implications for the 2012 reapportionment if the voter numbers in the last post reflect population numbers

The last post gave more details about where voter registration figures have increased dramatically, the shore area in Eastern Sussex County and the MOT-Smyrna area. The Bear-Glasgow area in New Castle County and Kent County between Milford and Smyrna showed some growth,but less dramatic. The other six areas showed stagnation in relative voter numbers ( an area's percentage of the statewide registration total). In the zero sum game of reapportionment, an area's numbers only matter in relation to other areas. If the shore or MOT pick up an additional legislative seat, it has to come from somewhere.

I would say for House Democrats the shore area is more of a problem.For MOT to get additional representation , Newark-Bear-Glasgow districts could be extended southward. This happened in 2002 when the 10th State Senate District which had been mostly in Newark moved much of the district below the C&D canal while maintaining enough territory in Newark for incumbent State Senator Steve Amick,who is from Newark, to retain his seat through two elections.In 2008 Amick retired and the seat was filled by Rep Bethany Hall-Long,who had represented the MOT area since 2002.

To add an additional seat at the shore it has to come from somewhere and it is possible it could come from New Castle County which may have several areas with stagnant growth, if registration figures mirror population trends at all. It is not necessarily a given that any incumbents will be redistricted out of a viable re-election bid,but in each of the last three reapportionments at least one incumbent in the House was not serving in the next legislative session with reapportionment as a possible factor.

In 1982 6th Representative District incumbent Tom Brady and 4th Representative District incumbent Kevin Free, both Republicans, were both placed in the newly reconfigured 4th Representative District as the designation of 6th Rep District moved from the City of Wilmington to the Penny Hill area along Philadelphia Pike. Brady retired and a primary was avoided. Free went on to represent the newly configured 4th Rep District .

In 1992 Roarke Moore, D-2nd Rep District lost the seat he won in 1990 to the man he had beaten, Rep Al O Plant, in the Democratic primary. Moore had beaten Plant by only 35 votes in 1990,so I am not sure how much redistricting had to do with the change. 1992 had a heated mayoral primary in Wilmington between Dan Frawley & Jim Sills and this may have had as much impact on turnout in the district as the change in boundary lines. 2249 voters cast ballots in the 1992 rematch . Only 1187 voted in this race in 1990 . It is possible that the mayor's race may have brought out more voters who would vote for Plant, who did not make it to the polls in the 1990 off year primary.


In 2002 Democrats Hazel Plant, 2nd Rep District , and Arthur Scott, 3rd Rep District, faced off in a primary which Plant won to represent the newly configured 2nd representative district in which they both lived. Sussex County Democratic Representatives Shirley Price and John Schroeder each lost re-election bids to Republicans in the General election after district lines were redrawn. Democrat Rep Rick DiLiberto saw his 14th representative district designation go to the Rehoboth area with his old district split among adjacent districts . He chose to run for state senate instead and lost in a bid to unseat Republican Liane Sorenson. Democrat Dave Brady's 8th district in Brandywine Hundred was split between adjacent districts and the 8th district designation went to the MOT area.His home election district was placed in the 7th Rep District along with Republican Majority Leader Wayne Smith ,who beat Brady in the 2002 general election.

The map will constrain the stretching of geography for many districts as adjacent state borders to the west statewide, to the north in New Castle County and to the south in Sussex County limit movement of boundary lines. Districts throughout the state along the coast and the Delaware River are inhibited from moving eastward. The less stretching of current districts that is possible will have a direct impact on how many new districts are lost when new districts are created, if census data supports such a change.
As always, political will is going to be a major factor and the election of 2010 will impact who is around in 2012 to exert political will.

Some additional hints at what areas may be impacted by reapportionment in 2012

While reapportionment is based on population figures and not voter registration figures, voter registration figures may give us an indication of what areas may gain and lose in the 2012 reapportionment which follows the 2010 census. I have broken up the state's 41 representative districts into ten areas comprised of districts that are adjacent to each other and share a geographic identifying factor ( for example, districts 1-4 are represented by city of Wilmington residents. Although large portions of some of these four district are outside the city, they each have enough city residents to make a city resident a viable candidate.) Some of the groupings may seem arbitrary,but this is designed to be the beginning of a discussion,not the culmination of a discussion and without beginning discussing geography -reapportionment can not be discussed.

I have provided 2002 & 2009 voter registration comparisons for each of the 41 rep districts. If a reader wishes to review maps at the Election Commissioner's website and come up with some different configurations of area groupings , that is great for continuing a discussion in which the final decision will impact Delaware's future for at the least the period 2012 to 2022.

What I have done for each representative district and grouping of districts is tell what proportion of the statewide voter registration each represented in 2002, the last time districts were reapportioned, and registration eff 9-1-2009.

2002 Statewide registration 519,816
2009 Statewide registration 606,433

Districts represented by a city resident
1st Rep district- 2002 -2.4% of statewide registration (12,247 voters)

1st Rep district- 2009- 2.3% of statewide registration (13,693 voters)

2nd Rep district-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,388 voters)

2nd Rep district-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,797 voters

3rd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (11,172 voters)

3rd Rep District-2009-2.0% of statewide registration (12,399 voters)

4th Rep District-2002-3.1% of statewide registration (16,152 voters)

4th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,131 voters)

This area--2002------9.6% of statewide registration

This area--2009------9.1% of statewide registration

Bear-Glasgow Area

5th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (11,942 voters)

5th Rep District-2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,801 voters)

15th Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,739 voters)

15th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (18,918 voters)

26th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,235 voters)

26th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,521 voters)

27th Rep District-2002-2.5%of statewide registration (12,731 voters)

27th Rep District-2009-2.4% of statewide registration (14,624 voters)

This area--2002------9.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-----10.1% of statewide registration

Brandywine Hundred
6th Rep District-2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,376 voters)

6th Rep District-2009--2.7% of statewide registration (16,643 voters)

7th Rep District-2002--2.9% of statewide registration (14,849 voters)

7th Rep District-2009--2.5% of statewide registration (14,974 voteres)

10th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,468 voters)

10th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,237 voters)

11th Rep District 2002--3.0% of statewide registration (15,409 voters)

11th Rep District 2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,677 voters)

12th Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,545 voters)

12th Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (15,306 voters)

This area--2002-------14.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-------13.0% of statewide registration

Middletown-Odessa-Townsend & Smyrna
8th Rep District-2002--2.3% of statewide registration (12,010 voters)

8th Rep District-2009--3.3% of statewide registration (19,758 voters)

9th Rep District-2002--2.6% of statewide registration (13,389)

9th Rep District-2009--3.2% of statewide registration (19,365)

28th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,670)

28th Rep district 2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,174)

29th Rep District-2002-2.0% of statewide registration (10,606)

29th Rep District-2009-2.8% of statewide registration (16,955)

This area---2002------9.0% of statewide registration

This area---2009------11.6% of statewide registration


Pike Creek-Kirkwood Highway Corridor between Newark & Wilmington
13th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,880)


13th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,132)


19th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,526)


19th Rep District 2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,095)


20th Rep District-2002-2.9% of statewide registration (15,083)


20th Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,500)


21st Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,561)


21st Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,975)


22nd Rep District-2002-2.8% of statewide registration (14,626)


22nd Rep District-2009-2.5% of statewide registration (14,986)


This area -2002-13.2% of statewide registration


This area-2009-12.0% of statewide registration


New Castle -Christiana
16th Rep District--2002--2.2% of statewide registration (11,380 voters)

16th Rep District--2009--2.2% of statewide registration (13,165voters)

17th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,532 voters)

17th Rep District--2009--2.3% of statewide registration (13,877 voters)

18th Rep District--2002--2.4% of statewide registration (12,504 voters)

18th Rep District--2002--2.1% of statewide registration (12,516 voters)

This area----------2002--7.0% of statewide registration

This area----------2009--6.6% of statewide registration

Newark
23rd Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,759)

23rd Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,950)

24th Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,204)

24th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,673)

25th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,336)

25th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,486)

This area--2002-------6.7% of statewide registration

This area--2009-------6.1% of statewide registration



Eastern Sussex County-Milford to the Shore


14th Rep District-2002-3.0% of statewide registration (15,837 voters)

14th Rep District-2009-3.2% of statewide registration (19,472)

36th Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration( 12,531)

36th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,622)

37th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,742)

37th Rep District 2009-2.3% of statewide registration ( 13,868)

38th Rep District -2002-3.1% of statewide registration (15,901)

38th Rep District-2009-3.1% of statewide registration ( 18,660)

This area-2002---10.8% of statewide registration

This area-2009--11.3% of statewide registration

Kent County between Milford and Smyrna
30th Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,695)

30th Rep District-2009-2.3% of statewide registration (14,155)

31st Rep District-2002-2.4% of statewide registration (12,352)

31st Rep District 2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,869)

32nd Rep District-2002-2.1% of statewide registration (10,677)

32nd Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,713)

33rd Rep District-2002-2.2% of statewide registration (11,572)

33rd Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,862)

34th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,796)

34th Rep District-2009-2.7% of statewide registration (16,173)

This area -2002-11.1% of statewide registration

This area -2009-11.6% of statewide registration





Western & Southern Sussex County

35th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide registration (10,183)

35th Rep District-2009-2.1% of statewide registration (12,887)

39th Rep District-2002-2.0 % of statewide regsitration (10,496)

39th Rep District-2009-1.9% of statewide registration (11,464)

40th Rep District-2002-2.3% of statewide registration (11,831)

40th Rep District-2009-2.2% of statewide registration (13,603)

41st Rep District-2002-2.5% of statewide registration (12,884)

41st Rep District-2009-2.6% of statewide registration (15,757)

This area-2002--8.8% of statewide registration

This area-2009--8.8% of statewide registration

The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.

For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.

For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.



http://elections.delaware.gov/

The turnout estimate of 25% was low,but the turnout pattern continues

There were 13,868 registered voters in the 37th Rep District as of 9-1-2009.

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

The unofficial vote total as of 8:42 pm on September 12,2009 is 4534.

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

Unofficial turnout reflects a 32.7% turnout which is above the 23-27% I predicted, but continues the pattern of legislative special elections held 80 days before or after June 30th having a turnout of at least 25%.

This pattern has applied to ten out of eleven state legislative special elections held since 1997 that I have reviewed.

Today's special election in the 37th Rep District had a similar result as 2002 general election

I found it interesting at how closely the results by election district in the 9-12-2009 37th Rep District special election mirrored the 2002 general election.

Democrat Robinson won the 1st and 2nd election districts in the 37th today , just as Democrat John Schroeder had in 2002. Schroeder was the last Democrat to come close to winning this seat,losing by less than a percentage point to Joe Booth. In 2004 Booth beat Nicholas Mirro 73% to 27%. Booth was unopposed in 2006 and beat Helen Truitt in 2008 by a margin of 64%-36%

Republican Ruth Briggs King won election districts 4-8 as had Republican Joe Booth.

Robinson lost the 3rd by 97 votes and Schroeder won it by one vote,but otherwise it was close to the overall result with Robinson losing closer in Georgetown where he lives and Schroeder,who was from Lewes, winning by a wider margin in Lewes than Robinson did .Schroeder’s wider margin in Lewes kept his race closer.
Booth beat Schroeder 50.3% to 49.7%.
Briggs King won 53.6% to 46.4%.

Sept 12, 2009
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37



----------------District Total ROBINSON R----- BRIGGS KING R

-----------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN



01-37 -----------------1034------ 600---------------- 434

02-37------------------ 998------ 509---------------- 489

03-37------------------ 493------ 198---------------- 295

04-37------------------ 178------- 68----------------- 110

05-37------------------ 512------ 171----------------- 341

06-37----------------- 900------ 405----------------- 495

07-37----------------- 315------- 112----------------- 203

08-37----------------- 104------- 42------------------- 62

RD Tot ---------------4534----- 2105---------------- 2429




http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml



2002
-----------------------DISTRICT TOTAL SCHROEDER------ BOOTH J W

-------------------------------------------DEMOCRATIC ----REPUBLICAN



01-37 -----------------------1440-------------- 978--------------- 462

02-37----------------------- 1317-------------- 845--------------- 472

03-37------------------------ 797-------------- 399--------------- 398

04-37------------------------ 246--------------- 94--------------- 152

05-37------------------------ 788-------------- 233--------------- 555

06-37----------------------- 1210-------------- 446--------------- 764

07-37----------------------- 507--------------- 166---------------- 341

08-37----------------------- 189---------------- 64----------------- 125

RD TOT------------------- 6494-------------- 3225---------------- 3269



CAND TOT 6494 3225 3269

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

About 25% turnout predicted in the 37th Rep District on 9-12-2009

There are possible isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and a 3:30 pm football game at the University of Delaware,so people who want high turnout may have to get people out before the weather scares them away or the game pulls them away,but I think turnout will still be around the 25% it has been usually when a legislative special election is within 80 days of June 30th.
I am assuming between 23% and 27%.


Here are links to the two prior posts that describe the pattern I think may exist:



http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-information-on-possible-turnout.html

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html

Some More Perspective on the Last Post

There are 41 Representative Districts in Delaware. If each were about equal in population and each had roughly equal voter registration percentages each district would account for 2.4% of the statewide registration total. All but one of the 6 districts mentioned in the last post exceeds this number.Their combined 17.9% exceeds the 14.4% they would account for if registration per representative district were roughly about equal.

If new registration since 2002 was evenly split between the 41 districts , each of the 41 districts would have about 2112 additional voters by 2009. At 2112 new voters per districts the average 6 districts would have 12,672 new voters, less than half that the six districts reviewed had with 29,971. None of these districts had less than 2700 new registrations between 2002 and 2009.

Some Early Thoughts om Reapportionment.It's 3 years away,but this might be a trend

The reapportionment of the Delaware General Assembly takes place every ten years after the census. The next US census is in 2010 and the next reapportionment will take place in 2012. It is very early to be too specific about what areas will get additional representation in the General Assembly due to an increase in their population in relation to other areas, but there appears to be a trend.



I realize reapportionment is based on population and not the number of registered voters,but I am assuming the number of registered voters in a district is one indication of population and that a dramatic increase in registered voters may be an indicator of a relatively dramatic increase in population. It is possible there is increased voter outreach or a more highly involved citizenry in specific areas,but some of the disparity in registration changes between the last reapportionment in 2002 and 9-1-2009 might be too wide to be explained those factors alone.



While the locations mentioned as potential sites of an additional legislator may seem obvious based on casual observation of real estate development, it is worth reviewing to see if the numbers bear out such observation.



Statewide in 2002 there were 519,816 registered voters. As of 9-1-2009 there were 606,433 registered voters.



Here are the 2002 & 2009 registration numbers for six areas that might be slated to get addition legislative representation and their increase in the percentage of registered voters that each represents between 2002 and 2009.

8th-Middletown-Clayton-Townsend

2002-12,010 voters--2.3% of statewide total

2009-19,758 voters--3.3% of statewide total (increase 7748 voters)


9th-Odessa-St Georges-Port Penn-Delaware City

2002--13,389 voters--2.6% of statewide total

2009--19,365 voters--3.2% of statewide total ( increase 5976 voters)


14th RepDist-Rehoboth Beach-part of Lewes-

2002-- 15,837 voters-- 3.0% of statewide total

2009---19,472 voters--3.2% of statewide total (increase 3635 voters)


28th Rep District-Smyrna-Leipsic-Little Creek
2002---10,670 voters--2.1% of statewide total

2009---14,174 voters--2.3% of statewide total (increase 3504 voters)



29thRep District-Kenton-Hartley-Cheswold-Camden-Wyoming

2002-10,606 voters--2.0% of statewide total

2009--16,955 voters-2.8% of statewide total (increase 6349 voters)


38th-Bethany Beach-Fenwick---

2002-15,901 voters-3.1% of statewide total

2009-18,660 voters-3.1% of statewide total (increase 2759 voters)



These six districts comprised 15.1 % of the registered voters in 2002. In 2009 they comprise 17.9% of the registered voters statewide. Of the 86,617 increase in registered voters between 2002 and 2009, these six districts accounted for 29,971 of this increase.

Population growth affecting reapportionment is not new to some of these areas. The 8th and the 9th Rep district numbers were previously assigned to areas of Brandywine Hundred and moved south to the C&D Canal area in the reapportionments of 1992 (the 9th) and 2002 (the 8th). The 14th Rep District has been assigned to area north of Newark along Kirkwood Highway before the 2002 reapportionment reallocated the number to the beach area.



Title 29 of the Delaware Code Chapter 8,subsection 804 states district should be nearly equal in proportion.



http://delcode.delaware.gov/title29/c008/sc01/index.shtml



The registration numbers come from the Delaware Elections Commissioner's website.

For 2002 the AGP Report in Election Archives was used.

For 9-1-2009 the link to registration totals was used.



http://elections.delaware.gov/

A clarification on the 8-21-09 post and the 8-25-09 post

In the 8-21-2009 post "New Castle County" is the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County within the boundaries of New Castle County and does not include the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
In the 8-25-2009 post "New Castle County" represents the entire New Castle County which includes the political subdivision of suburban New Castle County and the political subdivision of the City of Wilmington.
I do not think the 8-25-2009 information is broken down by political subdivision on the website.

Extended Incumbency and A bigger Warchest don't always mean a bigger victory margin, recent auditor races are proof

Tom Wagner has been the Delaware State Auditor since then-Gov Mike Castle appointed him in 1989. He has won five statewide elections since that appointment. That an incumbent wins re-election may not be surprising.It might be unexpected that his victory margin would decrease as his length of service increased and he disproportionately increased the disparity between the size of his campaign war chest and his Democratic opponent,but that is what took place over his last three elections.

In 1998 he had been in office nine years. He beat Diane Kempski, the New Castle County Register in Chancery, 58% to 42%. He outpaced her in fundraising by $39,650.80 to $16,177.97.

In 2002 he defeated Bob Wasserbach 61.8% to 38.2%, but Wasserbach, who has never held elected office, did not form a committee until September after being appointed as the Democratic party nominee which each party can do if no candidate files prior to the filing deadline in July. Wagner , who had 13 years in office at the time, raised $43,330 to Wasserbach's $12,965 in contributions and $1000 campaign loan from the candidate. While Wagner started the year with over $3000 in the bank, Wasserbach first contribution over $100 came on 9-17-2002 which was less than two months before election day.

After serving 17 years as Auditor Tom Wagner faced off against Democrat Michael Dalto, who had also never held elected office and whose campaign did not begin until September of 2006. Dalto's campaign finance report has no contributions prior to September 2006. Wagner began 2006 with $89, 718.67 in the bank. Wagner went on to exceed Dalto's fundraising by to $104,808.67 to $1,445 or 72-1. Wagner won with 53.7% to 46.3%.

A win is a win for Wagner,but for Dalto to be outspent 72-1 by someone in office for 17 years and come within 3.8% of having a majority of votes may raise issues about whether Wagner could be vulnerable in 2010.

It won't guarantee the 2010 outcome,but as of 12-31-2008 Wagner had $33,682.87
in his campaign treasury.


Here are the numbers:
1998 election results
Diane Kempski (D)-73,475 votes-R. Thomas Wagner,Jr (R)-101,207
1998 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-98-----------------Kempski-$120.97------Wagner $1880.82
Raised 1-1-98 to 10-4-98 -----Kempski--$8300------ Wagner $22,170
Raised 10-5-98 to 10-26-98------Kempski-$7457-------Wagner $10,600
Raised 10-27-98 to election day-Kempski-$300--------Wagner $5000
Total raised prior to election -Kemspki-$16,177.97--Wagner-$39,650.82

2002 election results
Robert Wasserbach (D)-84,248 votes R Thomas Wagner ,Jr (R)-136,410
2002 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-02----------------Wasserbach-----zero---------Wagner $3,350
Raised 1-1-02 to 10-6-02-----Wasserbach-$6820----------Wagner $31,180
Wasserbach lent his campaign $1000
Raised 10-7-02 to 10-28-02--Wasserbach-$5,345---------Wagner $6,550
Raised 10-28-02 to election--Wasserbach- $800----------Wagner $2250
Total raised prior to election-Wasserbach-$12,965--------Wagner $43,330

2006 election results
Michael John Dalto (D)-113,475 votes R.Thomas Wagner,Jr (R) 131,592

2006 Campaign Finance
On hand 1-1-06------------------Dalto----------zero-------------Wagner $89,718.67
Raised 1-1-06 to 10-9-06------Dalto---------$1,225------------Wagner $11,690
(Dalto's report lists 9-1-06 as the start date and shows no money raised before 9-1-06)
Raised 10-10-06 to 10-30-06--Dalto----------$200------------Wagner $1,200
Raised 10-30-06 to election---Dalto----------zero--------------Wagner $2,200
Total raised prior to election--Dalto--------$1,425-------------Wagner--$104,808.67




For campaign finance reports:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/campaignfinance/campaignfinance.shtml

For election results:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

In New Castle County it's not just more people,it's increasing turnout percentages

Tom Wagner is the only currently seated statewide elected official to have won an election and lost New Castle County in the last five election cycles. I thought I would look at how turnout has changed in New Castle County over the last three nonpresidential elections.

Below are the numbers from the New Castle County Board of Election website.

In 2006 all of the Republicans statewide except US Rep.Mike Castle lost New Castle County.Only Castle and Tom Wagner won statewide. The Republican candidates for US Senate,treasurer and attorney general lost.

In 2002 the entire slate except Castle and Tom Wagner lost New Castle County. Castle, Tom Wagner and attorney general Jane Brady were each re-elected,but the Republican US Senate candidate and treasusrer's candidate were each defeated statewide by at least 15 percentage points .

It does not look promising for the Republicans statewide in 2010 unless they can change the voting trend or win by close to a 2-1 margin in Kent & Sussex Counties which is roughly what Wagner did in 2006 .


***************************1998***********2002*************2006
Registered voters------------/307,802-------338,301----------353,834

People who voted------------/114,870-------146,907----------161,932

% of Registered voters voted/37.32%--------43.42%-----------45.76%


From:
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/2006g/comparison.pdf

New Castle County Usually a Bellwhether in Statewide contests

In the last post I mentioned how in the last four election cycles 55% plus of the statewide vote came out of suburban New Castle County. Since then I have looked to see how often statewide winners are able to carry the state,but lose in New Castle County. Since 2000 there have been 27 statewide races. Only two candidates, Republican Jane Brady , who in 2002 won in a 3 way race for Attorney General with Democrat Carl Schnee and Green Party candidate Vivian Houghton (whose 4.8% was higher than average 3rd party vote share) and Republican Tom Wagner, who won re-election as Auditor in 2006 over Democrat Michael Dalto, won statewide despite losing in suburban New Castle County.

The following won statewide and won New Castle county from 2000 to 2008:

3 Democratic presidential candidates: Barack Obama lost Sussex County. Al Gore and John Kerry each lost Kent and Sussex Counties

4 times the Democratic candidate for US Senate: In 2002 Joe Biden lost Kent County and in 2008 won Sussex County by only 272 votes when over 86, 000 votes were cast in Sussex County. Democrat Tom Carper won all subdivisions in 2006,but lost Kent and Sussex in 2000 when he upset Republican Bill Roth.

5 times the Republican Candidate for US House: Republican Mike Castle won in the City of Wilmington only once,getting 95 votes more than Democrat Mike Miller did in the city in 2002. This was the only Republican race between 2000 and 2008 in which the Republican got more Wilmington votes than the Democrat.

3 times the Democratic candidate for Governor: Ruth Ann Minner in 2000 and Jack Markell in 2008 each won all four subdivisions,but in 2004 Minner lost Kent and Sussex.

3 times the Democratic candidate for Lt Governor. John Carney in 2000 and 2004 and Matt Denn in 2008 each won all four subdivisions.

2 times the Democratic candidate for Treasurer-Jack Markell won all four subdivisions in 2002 and 2006.

For attorney general: in 2006 Democrat Beau Biden won despite losing Kent & Sussex Counties

In the 2002 Auditor's race Republican Tom Wagner won all subdivisions except the City of Wilmington. He received 61.8% overall in 2002.
In 2006 , the year he lost the City of Wilmington and New Castle County, he had 53.7% overall. His 65% victory in Kent & Sussex Counties allowed him to win,although by a 8.1% narrower margin than in 2002.

Each of the 3 Insurance Commissioner winners won New Castle County while losing at least one subdivision: Republican Donna Lee Williams lost the City of Wilmington in 2000,Democrat Matt Denn lost Kent & Sussex Counties in 2004 and Democrat Karen Weldin Stewart lost Sussex County in 2008.

Democrats ,winners and losers, can usually count on winning in Wilmington .
Kent & Sussex each backed the losing Republican 7 times in statewide raced in which Democrats won.
New Castle County supported the winner in all but two statewide contests of the last 27 held and one of those races had a third party candidate whose vote total of 13,860 exceeded the margin of victory which was only 6,871 votes. Since both of these offices will be on the ballot in 2010, it will be interesting to watch this trend.

All data is from the State Election Commissioner's website and the New Castle County Board of Elections' website.
A link is in the last post before this one.

Subdivision Relative Turnout Relatively stable over the last four election cycles

I have read about the influx of people into Sussex County (transplants from upstate and out of state)in recent years and I began to wonder if Sussex County may have begun to contribute a higher percentage of statewide voter turnout in general elections in recent years.

The vote totals are up in Sussex County,but the number of actual votes cast in each of the other three political subdivisions (Kent County, New Castle County and the City of Wilmington) have also increased. This has created a situation where the relative turnout for each of the subdivisions is relatively stable in comparison to the others over the past few election cycles.

To minimize incumbency as an issue that could impact turnout, I looked at turnout in four open races in each of four recent election cycles and the pattern of relative turnout emerges with each subdivision contributing with no more than 3.0% points seperating its highest relative turnout from its lowest relative turnout. For 2002 I used the AGP report since the Delaware Election Commissioner's website did not break down election results by subdivsion in individual races for 2002.

2000 Presidential race-Total votes cast statewide327,529
City of Wilmington--------------25,374----7.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------187,821---57.3% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------48,247----14.7% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------66,287----20.2% of total turnout

2004 Insurance Commissioner's Race-Total votes cast statewide 346,085
City of Wilmington--------------24,614---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----196,566---56.8% of total turnout
Kent County--------------------52,189----15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County------------------72,716----21.1% of total turnout

2006 Attorney General race-Total Votes cast statewide 253,214
City of Wilmington--------------17,010---6.7% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County-----141,665---55.9% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------38,339---15.1% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------56,200---22.2% of total turnout

2008 Insurance Commissioner's race-Total Votes cast statewide 381,168
City of Wilmington--------------26,945---7.1% of total turnout
Suburban New Castle County------208,015--54.6% of total turnout
Kent County---------------------62,389---16.4% of total turnout
Sussex County-------------------83,819---22.0% of total turnout

2002 AGP report-(individual races not broken down by county)which reports turnout by groups
Total turnout is 232,497
New Castle County-------------145,836----62.7% of total turnout
(suburban & City of Wilmington)
Kent County-------------------34,015-----14.6% of total turnout
Sussex County-----------------52,646-----22.6% of total turnout


http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

More information on possible turnout pattern in legislative special elections

Of the ten legislative races I have so far been able to get approximate registration numbers for , only one has not fit the patten of turnout of 18% or below if more than 120 days before or after the Delaware legislative session June 30th end date and 25% or above turnout if held within 80 days of the June 30th legislative deadline.

On August5,2009 I did a post suggesting a potential turnout pattern, based on seven legislative special elections held between 2001 and the present.

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/08/maybe-special-election-turnout-pattern.html

I can not verify cause-and-effect,but the numbers I am gathering continue to lend credence that this might be a pattern,not a series of anomalies.
Here are three more earlier special elections, two of which fit the pattern.


(1)On 6-11-1983 there was a special election to fill the seat vacated by the resignation of Rep Herman H Holloway,Jr.
James Sills, who would later serve two terms in the 1990s as Wilmington’s mayor, was the Democratic candidate. The Republicans did not field a candidate in the heavily Democratic district which included Wilmington’s east side, South Wilmington and the Hilltop neighborhood on Wilmington's West Side.
None of the other political parties fielded a candidate either.
The lack of nominated competition on the ballot did not create a lack of competition since same day write-in votes were still within Delaware law.
Sills won with 1194 votes. Marlene Holloway Dryden (Herman Holloway’s sister) received 204 write-in votes. 1,397 votes were cast,according to the Front Page story in the Sunday News-Journal on June 12, 1983 ( available on microfilm,but not online). A telephone verification with the Board of Election indicates there were 6 additional write-in votes cast for other candidates for a total of 1404 votes cast.
Total registration was 5,247 on 11-2-1982 and 5,990 11-6-1984 (the closest dates with registration figures on the Election Commissioner’s website) ,so I am assuming registration on 6-11-1983 was somewhere in between.
1404 would be 26.8% of 5,247 and would be 23.4% of 5,990, so the turnout was somewhere in that range despite only one major party candidate. 25.1% is midway between these two percentages,so will serve as a rough estimate.
I am thinking that the date of the election 19 days before the end of the legislative session may have meant more potential voters were thinking about the legislature at that time of year.
(2)When Lonnie George resigned his seat in the General Assembly in the summer of 1995, a special election was held on 8-12-1995. The winner was Rep Dennis Williams, who continues to hold the seat. He received 1,757 votes . Republican Karen J Miller received 897 votes and Libertarian Lawrence Sullivan received 122.
Total votes were 2776. There is no AGP report for special elections,so I can not establish exact registration figures. Here is the best approximation from the AGP reports of the general election before and after this special election: on 11-8-1994 there were 8,654 registered voters. On 11-5-1996 there were 10,089 registered voters. I assume the registration on 8-12-1995 is somewhere in between.
2776 is 32.1% of 8,654 and 27.5% of 10,089. Midway between these two would be 29.8%..
This election was held 43 days after the legislative session ended on June 30th .It had turnout of at least 27.5%. and maybe higher.

(3)In 1997 Rep Oak Banning died ,creating the need for a special election on Nov 13, 1997.This was 136 days after June 30th. Republican Dick Cathcart,who continues to hold the seat, defeated Democratic county council member Chris Roberts 1,966 to 1,758. Total votes cast were 3103. Registration figures for 1997 & 1998 are not available online, but on 11-5-1996 the election commissioner reports total registration as 10,923. 3103 is 28.4% of 10,923. That makes this the only legislative special election I have reviewed in which turnout did not fit the pattern.

We will know by 9-13-2009 whether the legislative special election in the 37th Rep District provides additional support for the theory there is a turnout pattern or challenges the theory by having a turnout less than 25%.


For election results:

http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

Here is what Turnout looks like among election districts in the 37th Rep District since 2002

In today's News-Journal newly minted Democratic candidate , Rob Robinson, stated his strong ties in Georgetown will be helpful in the upcoming special election in the 37th representative District.
"You can look at a map and tell Georgetown's going to bring a lot of weight," Robinson said.

http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20090809/NEWS02/908090343

I agree with him that Georgetown will have a major impact, but think he and any other candidates might need to build or reinforce relationships in Lewes,since a significant number of votes come out Lewes.

The numbers below indicate that if you break down the polling places by location, there are two in Lewes and four in Georgetown, one in Millsboro and one in Harbeson.

Over the last four elections the two in Lewes (the 1st of the 37th & the 2nd of the 37th) have accounted for 40.2% in 2008, 43.1% in 2006,41.0% in 2004 and 42.5% in 2002 of the overall district turnout.

The four Georgetown polling places ( 5th of the 37th, 6th of the 37th, 7th of the 37th and 8th of the 37th) accounted for 40.4% in 2008, 40.6% in 2006, 40.4 in 2004 and 41.4 in 2002 of overall district turnout.

The Millsboro polling has contributed between 12 and 15 % of overall district turnout in each of these elections,so it deserves some attention as well.

In 2002 Joe Booth unseated John Schroeder of Lewes after redistricting altered the lines of the 37th district which Schroeder had represented to include Georgetown where Booth had been mayor. Booth won by 44 votes overall,but lost the 1st of the 37th 978-462 and the 2nd of the 37th 845-472. Lewes votes did not win the election for Schroeder,but they kept it close.
We don't know who Robinson will face in the special election or what part of the district they will come from, but I'm betting Lewes will also "bring a lot of weight".


STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 37
Turnout in the state rep race 2008
1st-37th***9th Grade Campus-Lewes---------------1727--17.8% of district turnout

2nd-37th***Shields Elementary,Lewes ------------2175--22.4% of district turnout

3rd-37th***Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro ----------1525--15.7% of district turnout

4th-37th***Harbeson Church Hall -----------------364--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th***GeorgetownElementary School -----------1022--10.5% of district turnout

6th-37th***North Georgetown Elementary School---- 1755--18.1% of district turnout

7th-37th ***GeorgetownMiddleSchool-----------------831--8.5% of district turnout

8th-37th***Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown --323--3.3%of district turnout

total ------9722

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect08/elect08_general_election/html/elect08_gen_edrd.shtml




Turnout in the Attorney General’s race in 2006
In the 37th Rep District
State Rep Joe Booth ran unopposed
1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1433--20.9% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1521--22.2% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 867--12.6% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall------- 251--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School--- 766--11.2% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School--- 1264--18.4% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool--- 565--8.2% of district turnout

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown--- 190--2.8% of district turnout

total------- 6857



http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect06/elect06_general/html/elect06_general.edrd.shtml


Turnout state rep race 2004

1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1787--20.3% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1822--20.7% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 1268--14.4% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall---- 326--3.7% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School---- 988--11.2% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School--- 1577--17.5% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool---- 753--8.6% of district turnout

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown---- 277--3.1% of district turnout

total------- 8798

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect04/elect04_general/elect04_general_edrd.shtml


turnout state rep race 2002

1st-37th**9th Grade Campus-Lewes--- 1440--22.2% of district turnout

2nd-37th**Shields Elementary,Lewes-- 1317--20.3% of district turnout

3rd-37th**Zoar Church Hall,Millsboro--- 797--12.3% of district turnout

4th-37th**Harbeson Church Hall--- 246--3.8% of district turnout

5th-37th**GeorgetownElementary School--- 788--12.1% of district turnout

6th-37th**North Georgetown Elementary School-- 1210--18.6% of district turnout

7th-37th**GeorgetownMiddleSchool--- 507--7.8%

8th-37th**Dept of Transportation Bldg,Georgetown--- 189--2.9% of district turnout

total------ 6494

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_general/elect02_edrd.shtml

The top seven election districts in the 19th Senate District continue to provide more than the majority in turnout

6884 total votes were cast on 08/03/09 in the Special Election in the 19th State Senate District. Here is what the numbers in the top seven election districts in the district looked like on August 3, 2009:


Representative District 35GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01-
761 votes cast- 11.1 % of total turnout
BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02-
1296 votes cast-18.8% of total turnout
DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04-
545 votes cast-7.9% of total turnout

36th RDMORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER-Lincoln ED: 04 RD:-
391 votes cast-5.7% of total turnout
MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOLED: 06 RD: 36Milton-
574 votes cast-8.3% of total turnout

37th RD6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY-ED: 06 RD: 37-
943 votes cast-13.7% of total turnout

39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL-ED: 03 RD: 39-
363 votes cast-5.3% of total turnout

Total turnout production for these seven districts:
4873 of 6884 votes cast for 70.8% of total turnout

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwres.shtml

In case you want to compare past turnout production:

Representative District 35
GREENWOOD FIRE HALL ED: 01
2002*** 10.7% of total district turnout
2004***10.3% of total district turnout
2006***10.6% of total district turnout
2008***11.2% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09-- 10.9% of district total


BRIDGEVILLE FIRE HALL ED: 02
2002*** 13.6% of total district turnout
2004***14.5% of total district turnout
2006***15.3% of total district turnout
2008***16.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --4361---16.9% of district total

DEL TECH HIGHER EDUCATION BLDG ED: 04
Located in Georgetown.
2002*** 8.1% of total district turnout
2004***8.6% of total district turnout
2006***8.1% of total district turnout
2008***8.5% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2395---9.3% of district total



36th RD
MORRIS EARLY LEARNING CENTER
Lincoln ED: 04 RD:
2002*** 8.2% of total district turnout
2004***8.7% of total district turnout
2006***8.4% of total district turnout
2008***8.6% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2293---8.9% of district total

MARINER MIDDLE SCHOOL
ED: 06 RD: 36Milton
2002*** 8.0% of total district turnout
2004***7.7% of total district turnout
2006***8.4% of total district turnout
2008***8.7% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2250---8.7% of district total

37th RD

6. NORTH GEORGETOWN ELEMENTARY
ED: 06 RD: 37
2002*** 11.7% of total district turnout
2004***10.5% of total district turnout
2006***11.3% of total district turnout
2008***9.9% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --2576---10.0% of district total

39th RD3. SEAFORD SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
ED: 03 RD: 39

2002*** 6.8% of total district turnout
2004***6.8% of total district turnout
2006***6.4% of total district turnout
2008***6.1% of total district turnout
Registered voters as of 7-1-09 --1559---6.0% of district total

http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-dont-know-who-will-win-in-19th.html

Maybe A Special Election Turnout Pattern

Posted: Thursday, July 2, 2009
“For now I am saying 15+% to low 20's% turnout,but it's still early to predict.”

I’ll admit I thought turnout would be less than 27.0% in the 8-3-2009 special election in the 19th State Senate District.

I’ll also let you join me in tracking a theory I am working on. I look for patterns and Special Elections may not occur often enough to develop patterns, but here is what I am considering.

June 30th is the day the Delaware State budget is mandated to be passed and a sizable amount of major legislation occurs within a week or two of June 30th. It is when the General Assembly gets the most media attention and when constituent groups can impact (or at least most closely follow) legislation.
Would scheduling proximity in relation to June 30th have an impact on turnout in legislative special elections?

I have only been able to establish turnout data for special elections held since Jan 2001 using available online data. There have only been seven special legislative elections since Jan 2001. It may be too small a sample to even make assumptions.but a pattern seems to be present.The three held within 80 days of June 30th (before or after) each had a minimum turnout of 27%. None of the four that were held more than 120 days from June 30th (before or after) got above 18%.

I am sure there may be other factors involved,but found this interesting.
The upcoming special election in the 37th Representative District will supply some more data to see if this pattern holds.


2nd Rep District-Jan.20, 2001-14.5% turnout-161 days from June30th

7th Rep District-April 14,2007-29.1% turnout-77 days from June 30th

41st Rep District-May 5, 2007-28.0% turnout-56 days from June 30th

14th Sen District-Nov 3,2007-18.0% turnout-126 days from June 30th

28th Rep District-Dec 8, 2007-18.0% turnout-161 days from June 30th

6th Rep District-Dec 20, 2008-18.13% turnout-173 days from June 30th

19th Sen District-Aug 5,2009-27.0% turnout-36 days from June 30th

Notes on the numbers
For Jan 2001 total turnout was 1343 and I used the registration from the Nov 2000 AGP report since exact registration numbers for Jan 2001 were not available . The Nov AGP report on the Election Commisisoner’s website indicates in Nov 2000 there were 9,244 registered voters.

Here is the link for the 8-3-2009 19th senate special election numbers:

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml

Other numbers can be located in the Election Archive at the Election Commissioner’s website:
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/electionresults/election_archive.shtml

and the New Castle County election board’s website:

http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/special.shtml

Numbers for the Next Round in Sussex County-37th Rep District registration -a swing district as far as registration goes-special election in weeks

District*** Democrats*** Republicans*** Others*** Total

01 OF 37** ***943******* 924********** 531****** 2,398
02 OF 37**** 1,219****** 1,173********* 696****** 3,088
03 OF 37 *****927******* 809********** 518****** 2,254
04 OF 37***** 174******* 226********** 113******* 513
05 OF 37***** 444******* 637********** 266****** 1,347
06 OF 37**** 1,101******* 920********** 570****** 2,591
07 OF 37****** 443****** 457*********** 235****** 1,135
08 OF 37****** 234****** 133*********** 98******* 465
Total ********5,485***** 5,279******** 3,027***** 13,791

Last Updated On 08/01/09 00:43:25

http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/e70r2601.shtml

One reason some politicians hang out at senior centers: the over 50 crowd can produce a majority of votes without having a majority of the voters

The AARP will be happy to see that in the 19th Senate District the over 50 year old voters cast over 50% of the votes with less than a majority of the registered voters in 2002 and 2006. For candidates this is important because they can maximize their time by contacting registered voters who are more likely to actually vote.

I have looked at the 2002 and 2006 elections because a lot of the people who vote in presidential year elections drop off in off-year elections and it is doubtful they would vote in the special election 8-3-2009, if they would not vote in 2002 and 2006 when the 19th senate seat and multiple statewide offices were on the ballot. The extra voters in 2004 and 2008 are less likely voters in a special election. They are the political equivalent of people who follow their hometown sports team,but only during playoff time.

The 50 and over group had a 13plus greater turnout percentage than the overall voting population in each of these elections.

Here are what the numbers tell us of how the over 50 group outperforms as a voting group:
19th State Senate District
2002
Total registered --21,286
Total votes cast --10,346---overall turnout 48.6%

Voters Age 50-59--registered-3666*********17.2% of registered voters
Voters age 50-59-- votes cast-2162*********20.9 % of total votes cast
Group turnout-59.0%

Voters age 60-65--registered-1444**********6.8% of registered voters
Voters age 60-65 -votes cast-965************9.3 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--66.8%

Voters 65 &over registered-4003***********18.8% of registered voters
Voters 65 &over votes cast-2631************25.4 % of total votes cast
Group turnout--65.7%

Voter50 & over registered--9113********* 42.8% of registered voters
50 and overvotes cast--5758*************55.6 % of votes cast
Voters 50 and over-group turnout-63.2%

2006
Total registered --23,432
Total votes cast --11,245*****************overall turnout--48.0%

Voters age 50-59 registered--4385****************18.7% of registered voters
Voters 50-59 votes cast---2552******************22.7 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--58.2%

Voters 60-65 registered--1936*********************8.3% of registered voters
Voters 60-65 votes cast-1245********************11.1 % of votes cast
Group Turnout--64.3%

Voters 65 & over registered--4738****************20.2% of registered voters
Voters 65 & over votes cast--3014****************26.8 % of total votes cast
Group Turnout--63.6%

Voters50 and over registered--11,059***********47.2% of registered voters
Voters50 and over votes cast--6811*************60.6 % of total votes cast
Voters 50 and over- group Turnout 61.6%



The numbers used are from the 2002 AGP report and 2006 AGP report on the State Election Commissioner's website:

http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml


http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html

In 2002 voters over 50 years old supplied the majority of votes cast at 14 of 16 polling places in the 19th Senate District

2002 Over 50 vote
1st-35th -total votes cast-1,108
50-59 -- 222 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 361 registered) 20.0% of votes cast
60-65--98 Votes cast ( 64 %turnout within age group- 154 registered) 8.8% of votes cast
65/OVER--291 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group- 446 registered) 26.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-55.1%

2nd-35th -- 1,371
50-59--281 Votes cast ( 55%turnout within age group-507 registered) 20.5% of votes cast
60-65-135 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group- 206 registered) 9.8% of votes cast -
65/OVER--364 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 605 registered)26.5 %of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.8%

3rd-35th -- 280
50-59-- 70 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 25.0% of votes cast
60-65--21 Votes cast ( 62%turnout within age group- 34 registered) 7.5% of votes cast
65/OVER-71Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-110 registered) 25.4% of votes cast -

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.9%

4th-35th -- 848
50-59--208 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group-- 386 registered) 24.5% of votes cast
60-65--80 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 134 registered) 9.4% of votes cast
65/OVER--192 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group- 319 registered) 22.6% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.5%


6th-35th -- 421
50-59-- 73 Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group- 159 registered) 17.3% of votes cast
60-65-- 47 Votes cast (62 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 11.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--78 Votes cast ( 53%turnout within age group- 148 registered) 18.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-47.0%

7th-35th -- 288
50-59--66 Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group-119 registered) 22.9% of votes cast
60-65-- 35 Votes cast ( 71%turnout within age group- 49 registered) 12.2% of votes cast
65/OVER--67 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group-111 registered) 23.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.4%

4th-36th -- 847
50-59--186 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group- 318 registered) 22.0% of votes cast
60-65--68 Votes cast ( 57%turnout within age group-120 registered) 8.0% of votes cast
65/OVER--197 Votes cast ( 59%turnout within age group-336 registered) 23.3% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-53.3%

5th-36th - 272
50-59--43 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group- 77 registered)15.8 % of votes cast
60-65--22 Votes cast ( 58%turnout within age group-38 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER-- 55 Votes cast ( 64%turnout within age group-86 registered)20.2 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-44.1%

6th-36th --842
50-59--163 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-- 267 registered) 19.4% of votes cast
60-65--73 Votes cast (68 %turnout within age group-107 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--245 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group-375 registered) 29.1% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-57.2%

8th-36th -- 565
50-59--103 Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group- 192 registered) 18.2% of votes cast
60-65--60 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-95 registered)10.6 % of votes cast
65/OVER--127 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group- 202registered) 22.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-51.3%

4th-37th-- 251
50-59--50 Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-74 registered)19.9 % of votes cast
60-65--31 Votes cast ( 86%turnout within age group-36 registered)12.4 % of votes cast
65/OVER--60Votes cast (76%turnout within age group-79 registered)23.9 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-56.2%

5th-37th--774
50-59--176 Votes cast (75%turnout within age group-236 registered)22.7% of votes cast
60-65--67 Votes cast (89 %turnout within age group-75 registered) 8.7% of votes cast
65/OVER-176 Votes cast(82%turnout within age group-215 registered)22.7% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-54.1%

6th-37th-1,212
50-59--225Votes cast(58 %turnout within age group-391 registered)18.60% of votes cast
60-65--99 Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-147 registered)8.2 % of votes cast
65/OVER-382 Votes cast(69%turnout within age group-551 registered)31.5% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-58.3%

8th-37th- 188
50-59-- 51Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-76 registered) 27.1% of votes cast
60-65-- 8 Votes cast (47 %turnout within age group-17 registered)4.3 % of votes cast
65/OVER--39Votes cast (64 %turnout within age group-61 registered)20.7% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-52.1%

1st-39th- 356
50-59--92Votes cast (68%turnout within age group-136 registered)25.8 % of votes cast
60-65--49Votes cast (83%turnout within age group-59 registered)13.8 % of votes cast
65/OVER--85Votes cast(65 %turnout within age group-131 registered)23.9% of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50-63.5%


3rd-39th- 723
50-59--153Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-260 registered)21.2% of votes cast
60-65--72Votes cast (74%turnout within age group-97 registered) 10.0% of votes cast
65/OVER-202Votes cast (67%turnout within age group-303registered)27.9 % of votes cast

% of total votes cast that were cast by voters over 50- 59.1%


http://elections.delaware.gov/archive/elect02/elect02_agp/agpmain.shtml

In 2006 turnout by voters over 50 years old provided the majority of votes cast in every election district in the 19th senate district

2006 Over 50 vote




1st-35th—Total Votes cast 1,167
50-59-259 votes cast (55% turnout within age group-467 registered), 22.2% of votes cast
60-65-111 votes cast (58% turnout within age group-193 registered),9.5% of votes cast
65/OVER- 295 votes cast( 58% turnout within age group- 511 registered),25.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.0%

2nd-35th-Total votes cast-1,680
50-59--354 votes cast (56% turnout within age group- 631 registered), 21.1% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast-217 (64% turnout within age group-338 registered),12.9 % of votes cast
65/OVERvotes cast-480 (61% turnout within age group-786 registered),28.6 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-62.6%


3rd-35th-total votes cast-- 283
50-59--votes cast 77(62% turnout within age group-124 registered),27.2% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 36(73% turnout within age group-49 registered),12.7% of votes cast
65/OVER--votes cast-77(65% turnout within age group-119 registered),27.2% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--67.1%


4th-35th--total votes cast--888
50-59--votes cast 222(54% turnout within age group-411 registered),25.0% of votes cast
60-65--votes cast 105 (58% turnout within age group-182 registered),11.8% of votes cast
65/OVER-votes cast 218 (60% turnout within age group-361 registered),24.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters--61.3%

6th-35th --total votes cast-- 481
50-59 -- 116Votes cast ( 54%turnout within age group - 213 registered) 24.1% of votes cast
60-65 --41Votes cast ( 48%turnout within age group-86 registered) 8.5% of votes cast
65/OVER --107Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-187 registered) 22.2 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-54.8%


7th-35th --288
50-59 --66Votes cast (55 %turnout within age group registered 119) ,22.9% % of votes cast
60-65 --39Votes cast ( 62 %turnout within age group --63registered),10.1 % of votes cast
65/OVER --70Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group--111 registered),24.3 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.3%




4th-36th - 948
50-59 --222 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group--368 registered) 23.4% of votes cast
60-65 -- 118 Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group -- 178 registered) 12.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --207 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group--368 registered) 21.8% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-57.6%




5th-36th --287
50-59 --65 Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-- 107 registered) 22.6% of votes cast
60-65 --21Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 35 registered) 7.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --62 Votes cast (60 %turnout within age group-- 103 registered) 21.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters-51.5%



6th-36th -total votes 948
50-59 -- 202 Votes cast ( 60%turnout within age group- 337 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --103 Votes cast ( 73%turnout within age group- 141 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER -- 290 Votes cast ( 70%turnout within age group- 414 registered) 30.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by over 50 voters 62.8




8th-36th -- 592
50-59 --124 Votes cast ( 56%turnout within age group-221 registered) 20.9% of votes cast
60-65 --60Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-96 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --139Votes cast (63 %turnout within age group-219 registered) 23.5 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-54.5%




4th-37th --257
50-59 --51 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group- 84registered) 19.8% of votes cast
60-65 -- 28 Votes cast ( 76%turnout within age group-37 registered) 10.9% of votes cast
65/OVER --78 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group -108registered) 30.4% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-61.1%



5th-37th --779
50-59--184 Votes cast ( 72%turnout within age group--256 registered) 23.6% of votes cast
60-65 --91Votes cast (77 %turnout within age group-118 registered) 11.7% of votes cast
65/OVER --192Votes cast ( 77%turnout within age group-250 registered) 24.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-59.9%




6th-37th -- 1,296
50-59 --278 Votes cast ( 61%turnout within age group-456 registered) 21.5% of votes cast
60-65 --131Votes cast ( 68%turnout within age group-192 registered) 10.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --423Votes cast (67 %turnout within age group-636 registered) 32.6% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-64.2%


8th-37th -- 197
50-59 --47 Votes cast (57 %turnout within age group-82 registered) 23.9% of votes cast
60-65 --16Votes cast ( 46%turnout within age group-35 registered) 8.1% of votes cast
65/OVER --48Votes cast (59 %turnout within age group-81 registered)24.4 % of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-56.4%


1st-39th --390
50-59 --83Votes cast (61 %turnout within age group-137 registered) 21.3% of votes cast
60-65 --48 Votes cast (73 %turnout within age group-66 registered) 12.3% of votes cast
65/OVER --111Votes cast ( 66%turnout within age group-168 registered) 28.5% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-62.1%




3rd-39th -- 767
50-59 --202 Votes cast ( 65%turnout within age group--313 registered) 26.3% of votes cast
60-65 -- 80 Votes cast ( 63%turnout within age group-127 registered) 10.4% of votes cast
65/OVER --217 Votes cast ( 69%turnout within age group -316registered) 28.3% of votes cast
% of total votes that were cast by voters over 50-65.0%






http://elections.delaware.gov/reports/agprpt_2006.html